Will other teams make draft mistakes because of Josh?

[BisonMan]

We've heard it over and over again. Josh Allen's growth from year 2 to year 3 is unprecedented. Nonetheless, it's likely that teams will look to repeat the Bills' formula by picking a QB with the dreaded "potential" without seeming to understand the internal and environmental factors that allowed Allen to thrive. 

 

Internal

Aside from his physical skills, Allen has two traits that have allowed him to have this massive improvement. First, Allen has a massive chip on his shoulders after being turned down by every college program when he came out of high school and got only one offer after his stint in JUCO. People think Tom Brady has a chip because he was drafted so late coming out of Michigan? Josh has been carrying this chip on his shoulder since high school. Second, Allen is a lot more studious a QB than people have given him credit for. His smarts have allowed him the ability learn more quickly than a lot of other players who never seem to "get it". Even this year, Allen has adjusted to changing defensive strategies to win games down the stretch. His drive has also allowed him to work more on his "craft" to become a better thrower of the ball. 

 

Environmental

The Bills obviously have a very strong coaching staff and culture. That allows players the support they need to mature and learn. The team also has put in the pieces around him to allow him to succeed and grow with what his potential allows. He's often compared to Roethlisberger, but Pittsburgh surrounded Ben with a strong running game to protect his lack of skills early in his career. The Bills created an environment to stretch Allen's skills. 

 

I can see other teams with a weaker culture and less stable management reaching for QBs with "potential" in the coming years to find a Josh Allen but his background, internal drive and skillset are very hard to replicate. Add to that, the difficulty of creating the right team around him makes what the Bills have done, very unique in my memory. I don't really see a ceiling for Allen at this point. He could easily get even better with more experience. 

 

Other teams should be very wary of trying to replicate what has happened in Buffalo. I see a lot of mistakes being made in the coming years with teams chasing the next Josh Allen.

[Doc]

You mean like the Packers with Love...

[Brennan Huff]

Yes 

[RoyBatty is alive]

Other teams will ALWAYS make monstrous QB draft mistakes.

 

Look at Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

 

Who  knows Darnold could be with a real organization.

 

The match with Allen  with Buffalo was , from the draft day.   Did we get lucky, take an educated well risked choice and did Beane gamble his credibility, absolutely, no doubt or shortage of Allen Haters.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Doc said:

You mean like the Packers with Love...

 

We don't know yet that was a mistake. Let's allow the kid to take a few snaps before we write him off.....

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just to be clear the same organization drafted and same coaching staff started Nathan Peterman

 

No one wants to admit it, but there is a fair amount of luck in this process.  I had Allen #1 but would have been happy with Rosen.  Many on here hated the Allen pick and wanted Rosen or others.  I do agree that coaching and culture play a crucial role.  But no culture or coaching is going to make a weak arm work.

 

 

 

[msw2112]

I always wondered about JP Losman.  He was talented guy - mobile, cannon arm, etc. and seemed to have a strong work ethic (despite a prior reputation for being a bit brash and cocky).  He had one decent season and then it all fell apart.  If he had been in the right system with the right coaching and development, would he have made it?  Note that by the time he got to other teams later in his career (Raiders, Dolphins), he was already "broken" and was beyond recovery.  I suppose you could say the same thing for EJ Manuel, although his accuracy was almost beyond horrible.  A guy like Tannehill is a good example of a guy who flashed talent but didn't really shine until he was in the right situation.  Fortunately for him, he got to Tennessee and got fixed before he was beyond repair.

 

Some guys have the physical ability (arm and/or mobility) AND the mental ability (to quickly process information/read a defense/sense pressure, etc.) and some only have one or the other.  Guys that only have the physical ability, but not the mental ability, usually get 2-4 shots with various teams that think they can fix the guy before they eventually flame out.  A third factor is work ethic/attitude.  Some talented guys who lacked this fell far short of their potential - Jeff George, Jay Cutler and Josh Rosen.  Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

 

Allen clearly has all three and in spades, PLUS the Bills have developed him properly in the right environment for success.  It's great to see happening this in a Buffalo franchise!

 

I realize that my post has wandered into a few different directions and away from the original topic, but these are the things that have come to mind (and I'm procrastinating some work that needs to get done).  Thanks for indulging me.

Edited December 16, 2020 by msw2112

[y2zipper]

I don't think quarterback evaluation is anywhere near a simple as this. I'm a little more forgiving on teams for quarterback misses because it is such a Gamble. I take the mindset that you have to know when to jump off of a quarterback more than the mindset that you have to get exactly the right prospect that succeeds the first time through. Like it doesn't take 3 years to figure out that a player like Mitch trubisky or a player like EJ Manuel or a player like Drew Lock isn't very good. It cycles: the player comes in with limited success, the league makes the adjustment, and then the player can either adjust or not. The mistake isn't picking the guy who fails. The mistake is sticking with what doesn't work too long.

 

The biggest thing with it is that the amount of guys who are going to succeed no matter what is like three in NFL history. We knew that Manning, Elway, and luck were going to succeed no matter what.

 

In most cases in most years, the consensus can pretty much land on the quarterbacks who have the best chance for success. It doesn't mean that every single one of these prospects works out, the modern scouting is so good we know who the best three or four guys are because even media guys can watch tape. most often It's a combination of prospect and environment that makes a quarterback successful, but you can also have good environments and a guy whose game just doesn't translate for whatever reason. I think there's two of those in the league right now. But Buffalo, Baltimore, and the changes in Cleveland and a little less recently Arizona put that into perspective in a fascinating way, especially Arizona.

 

We really don't know how good of an environment Rosen actually had because Arizona's front office not only jumped off of Rosen and Wilkes after one year, but took a lot of criticism for doing it. They decided they were in position to get the next number one guy, liked him better, and fix the environment by hiring Kingsbury.

 

This equation is kind of where the Jets are at. We know that Adam gase isn't any good, the Jets have a new general manager who is going to jump off gase as coach, and chances are they are going to have to decide what they think of Darnold as a prospect plus whatever return they can get in a trade compared to Trevor Lawrence.

 

Miami also needs to make that decision with regards to Tua. The difference is that in Miami, anyone who watches the league can tell that the environment there is good. Figuring out whether Tua can pan out into a long-term starter for them is a bigger decision that attempting to make one wild card playoff run because they are not going to be in position to get another shot like they are now.

 

In the NFL, environments can change quickly if an organization makes a good coaching hire. We saw that here when Buffalo went from Rex to Sean McDermott. the team that couldn't get disciplined enough to stay out of its own way under Rex ends up going to the postseason in the first McDermott year. Even in a playoff year, they made the decision to attempt to jump off of Taylor because they knew he wasn't good enough. Peterman fell on his face, but that doesn't mean the decision was wrong because the organization and didn't believe that they could win with Taylor and frankly they were right.

 

 

 

[Warcodered]

I think anyone who tries to copy pick a franchise QB is in for a world of hurt.

[dpberr]

Josh Allen had high marks for being a coachable person. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold did not. Rosen had a lousy attitude and a lot of quit. Darnold is still the same QB he was at USC. Absolutely no evolution.

 

Coachability is a wonderful skill set to have as a person. 

 

As you explore the greats and busts at that position you'll often find that as one of the common denominators. 

 

 

 

[billspro]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't know yet that was a mistake. Let's allow the kid to take a few snaps before we write him off.....

Its so difficult to draft a good QB. The hit rate in the first couple of rounds is probably around 30%. A lot of guys bust because they have a bad organization around them that doesn’t develop players properly. I definitely don’t right guys off anymore without watching them. Allen probably wouldn’t be the player he is today if he was drafted by the Jets.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

I don't think quarterback evaluation is anywhere near a simple as this. I'm a little more forgiving on teams for quarterback misses because it is such a Gamble. I take the mindset that you have to know when to jump off of a quarterback more than the mindset that you have to get exactly the right prospect that succeeds the first time through. Like it doesn't take 3 years to figure out that a player like Mitch trubisky or a player like EJ Manuel or a player like Drew Lock isn't very good. It cycles: the player comes in with limited success, the league makes the adjustment, and then the player can either adjust or not. The mistake isn't picking the guy who fails. The mistake is sticking with what doesn't work too long.

 

The biggest thing with it is that the amount of guys who are going to succeed no matter what is like three in NFL history. We knew that Manning, Elway, and luck were going to succeed no matter what.

 

In most cases in most years, the consensus can pretty much land on the quarterbacks who have the best chance for success. It doesn't mean that every single one of these prospects works out, the modern scouting is so good we know who the best three or four guys are because even media guys can watch tape. most often It's a combination of prospect and environment that makes a quarterback successful, but you can also have good environments and a guy whose game just doesn't translate for whatever reason. I think there's two of those in the league right now. But Buffalo, Baltimore, and the changes in Cleveland and a little less recently Arizona put that into perspective in a fascinating way, especially Arizona.

 

We really don't know how good of an environment Rosen actually had because Arizona's front office not only jumped off of Rosen and Wilkes after one year, but took a lot of criticism for doing it. They decided they were in position to get the next number one guy, liked him better, and fix the environment by hiring Kingsbury.

 

This equation is kind of where the Jets are at. We know that Adam gase isn't any good, the Jets have a new general manager who is going to jump off gase as coach, and chances are they are going to have to decide what they think of Darnold as a prospect plus whatever return they can get in a trade compared to Trevor Lawrence.

 

Miami also needs to make that decision with regards to Tua. The difference is that in Miami, anyone who watches the league can tell that the environment there is good. Figuring out whether Tua can pan out into a long-term starter for them is a bigger decision that attempting to make one wild card playoff run because they are not going to be in position to get another shot like they are now.

 

In the NFL, environments can change quickly if an organization makes a good coaching hire. We saw that here when Buffalo went from Rex to Sean McDermott. the team that couldn't get disciplined enough to stay out of its own way under Rex ends up going to the postseason in the first McDermott year. Even in a playoff year, they made the decision to attempt to jump off of Taylor because they knew he wasn't good enough. Peterman fell on his face, but that doesn't mean the decision was wrong because the organization and didn't believe that they could win with Taylor and frankly they were right.

 

 

 

Interesting choices.  I agree that was the consensus.  It took years for Elway to reach his full potential.  It took a couple for Manning (28 picks his first year).  Luck was good right out of the gate but had double digit interceptions every year except one.  

And of course there was at least some debate about Manning/Leaf and Luck/RGIII.  So even those years it was not an absolute

[GLP]

The Giants did it with Daniel Jones (Danny Dimes); he's 6'5" - 221 lbs and out of Duke. His current NFL record is 7-17. Is he the long-term answer for the Giants, probably not. The Giants took a swing and missed. Teams will continue to do that. All draft picks are a gamble. Some you hit (Brady), some you don't (Aaron Maybin) ouch that one hurts.

[MJS]

Absolutely. Josh is a unicorn. There's never going to be another one like him. People trying to replicate it are going to get burned time and time again.

 

Allen barely even played in college and never received adequate coaching until the pros. It was a tremendous risk to take him and believe you could develop him AND that he would be so hard working and humble enough to allow it.

 

Just not going to happen again. Most guys who make it to the pros have a lot of college experience with big programs. Just don't see another QB the caliber of Allen getting to the NFL so, so raw like he was.

[aristocrat]

Tannehill was one. He had like one or two years as a starter right?  
 

They take projects all the time it’s just that they hyped up that class so much.  I swear there must have been a team or two running bad info on josh to get him to fall or even to break his confidence or the teams confidence in him.  Hello patriots 

[muppy]

QB evaluators make their analysis and then choose whom they think will be a valid starter in the league long term. It of course is no exact science. They can't measure work ethic, coachability, willingness to learn and apply what they learn, football intelligence.....yes they can measure height but they cant measure a guys pride or heart either. What Josh Allen has is not only the physical tangibles but the mental and psychological intangibles PLUS the Right coaching, mentorship and surrounding cast to make his success more possible.

 

I give HIM the credit for the hard work along with willingness and natural ability to become a franchise QB for our team. Would this have been the case in a different franchise? Im glad and hope we never have to find out....career in WNY baby he's OURS. HA!

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Josh Allen isn't the 1st QB drafted in round 1 that was controversial. Heck, remember EJ Manuel? 

 

A big armed QB with all the physical talent in the world will always get drafted as a franchise QB prospect every year. 

[JoshAllenReceipts]

Yes, because they don't realize that Josh is a unicorn who can never possibly be replicated.

[Watkins101]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

You mean like the Packers with Love...

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't know yet that was a mistake. Let's allow the kid to take a few snaps before we write him off.....

Love was not drafted because of Josh Allen. Josh Allen had not even shown to be a franchise Qb by the time that Love was drafted. I don’t think Allen was even a driver in the decision to draft Love.

[Paup 1995MVP]

21 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

Tannehill was one. He had like one or two years as a starter right?  
 

They take projects all the time it’s just that they hyped up that class so much.  I swear there must have been a team or two running bad info on josh to get him to fall or even to break his confidence or the teams confidence in him.  Hello patriots 

I don't think Josh Allen "fell".  He played at Wyoming in the Mountain West.  The conference is marginal after Boise State.  Being the 7th pick in the draft coming out of a program like Wyoming against the competition he was playing against is a tremendous achievement.