Prioritize which upcoming UFA’s to re-sign

[Buffalo Junction]

19 hours ago, JustWinPlease said:

He's probably going to want that raise this offseason, after putting up a career season and helping Josh Allen get there too.

Probably not this off-season. Remember they tweaked his contract and (IIRC) next year he’s getting an extra $7MM guaranteed. With how they gave him his back end cash up front and those guarantees in 2021 Diggs will most likely be content negotiating again before the 2022 season after the cap rebounds from Covid. Basically they just gave Star’s opt-out salary to Diggs while the space was available. 

[RyanC883]

I'd go Williams, Feliciano, and then Milano.  Ideally, I'd keep all three.  

 

I think that Milano's being unavailable so often will hurt him.  If another team comes along with big money, he'd be gone.  Bean won't pay a player who isn't available.  It will come down to what another team is willing to pay with him, IMO.  That, and having a good OL will outweigh Milano.  The line has been much better with the Williams/Feliciano combo.  

[BigBuff423]

As I've said the last two Off-seasons and will reiterate, as a fan I have my "opinion" and defend it passionately as many on this board do, but it is beyond amazingly refreshing to KNOW, unequivocally and unwavering, I TRUST Beane to make these decisions.

 

There is just so much less stress of fan anxiety to feel supremely confident in the GM and the front office to make these decisions as they evaluate current players, prospective FAs and Draft eligible players. Beane has earned every penny of his extension and knowing he's leading the ship, even with what is sure to be departures by his subordinates to other teams, is a feeling I am thankful for as a Bills fan and know it might not make sense to me at the time, but I trust I will see the dividends in time. 

[billsfan89]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

$50 M is very very optimistic, and would leave us with holes to fill to replace Smith and Butler.

 

IMO if they get an extra $20M to work with, they won't be kicking all that many cans down the road as you're suggesting. We'll see, I guess.

 

If they did get that much, I'd pretty much agree with your moves, though I think Milano would be prioritized higher.

 

I keep hearing variations on this from a Daniel Kaplan article on The Athletic, "The league and NFL Players Association agreed in August, given the pandemic-driven plunge in local revenues, to a minimum 2021 cap of $175 million. Sources have said, barring the unexpected, that is likely to be the 2021 figure. The cap is based in part on the previous year’s local revenues, which this season have been practically nonexistent, causing at the very least a $4 billion reduction in league proceeds. Without the minimum floor, the cap certainly would have fallen far more."

 

https://theathletic.com/2242868/2020/12/07/nfl-reduced-salary-cap-2021/

 

Sometimes the unexpected happens, but for obvious reasons expecting the unexpected isn't generally the path to follow. They're already essentially underwriting a large portion of that $175M with revenues from future years. If they do raise it a bit, that would help us out, no question.

 

I don't see Lee Smith or Butler leaving a hole. I think you can find a vet minimum player to replace Smith who is a very niche player and Star comes back to replace Butler so no hole there.

 

Setting the cap at 175 million would be a disaster for the NFL as almost all of the league would be completely up against or way over it. I think they either do what the NBA did and keep the cap about what it was projected to be but then keep a percentage of the players salaries in escrow and claw back whatever is needed to make the owners balanced in terms of their share of revenues or simply borrow more from future revenues. 

 

The TV deals are where most of the NFL revenues come from so I doubt they can't get by.

 

I hope that 175 number won't manifest because then John Brown, Mitch, Hughes, Butler, Addison, Smith and Tyler are all gone and so would 2 out of the 3 players we need to resign

Edited December 16, 2020 by billsfan89

[Doc]

There's no way they're keeping the cap at $175M.  The owners will need to make a lot of cuts and players will lose out on a lot of money.  Plus the vaccines are here and things are looking up.  

 

 

[Adam727]

In order, I would try to re-sign:

 

1) Feliciano

2) Daryl Williams

3) Milano

4) Roberts

5) Levi Wallace/Justin Zimmer/Boettger (these three should be easy)

 

If needed I'd cut Butler/Jefferson to free up space and draft a DT early.   

 

Milano would be the odd man out for me if there's not enough $$ to re-sign everyone but would be disappointed if the Bills cant find a way to keep him.  

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Interesting comment in Spotrac about a Josh Allen contract extension.  Lets not debate as to whether he's a Tier I or Tier II, assume the comment is correct, he's a Tier II. 

 

If so would Allen be better off waiting another season to sign an extension to prove he's really a Tier I?

 

 

Luckily for him, being a Tier 2 QB right now should bag him close to $38M per year.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I don't see Lee Smith or Butler leaving a hole. I think you can find a vet minimum player to replace Smith who is a very niche player and Star comes back to replace Butler so no hole there.

 

Setting the cap at 175 million would be a disaster for the NFL as almost all of the league would be completely up against or way over it. I think they either do what the NBA did and keep the cap about what it was projected to be but then keep a percentage of the players salaries in escrow and claw back whatever is needed to make the owners balanced in terms of their share of revenues or simply borrow more from future revenues. 

 

The TV deals are where most of the NFL revenues come from so I doubt they can't get by.

 

I hope that 175 number won't manifest because then John Brown, Mitch, Hughes, Butler, Addison, Smith and Tyler are all gone and so would 2 out of the 3 players we need to resign

 

Someone made a point elsewhere - but if the cap hits 175 - a lot of those guys will restructure.  Why?  Because there is a capped amount of cap space remaining and several of these guys are north of 30. 

 

You can take john browns 9m hit, and position most of the base salary into bonuses in 2022, and guarantee another base salary in 2022.  So 1 year 9M cap hit becomes like 3.7 on year 1 and like a guaranteed 6-8M in 2022.  1 year 9M becomes 2yr 12M with a 3M cap hit in 2021.  Normally the player can say "i'll hit the market" but this market has fewer teams spending, and fewer jobs available.  If you lose the musical chairs game your 2 years fully guaranteed 12 could be 1 year 2 million.  The players have a ton of risk in free agency this year.  

 

Same goes for the dlinemen.  Addison and butler are likely to get less money than they did a year ago in a lower cap market.  If Buffalo needs space on the butler deal, he extends a 3rd year and gets a 2020 market rate add-on to 2022.  

[Dkollidas]

26 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Someone made a point elsewhere - but if the cap hits 175 - a lot of those guys will restructure.  Why?  Because there is a capped amount of cap space remaining and several of these guys are north of 30. 

 

You can take john browns 9m hit, and position most of the base salary into bonuses in 2022, and guarantee another base salary in 2022.  So 1 year 9M cap hit becomes like 3.7 on year 1 and like a guaranteed 6-8M in 2022.  1 year 9M becomes 2yr 12M with a 3M cap hit in 2021.  Normally the player can say "i'll hit the market" but this market has fewer teams spending, and fewer jobs available.  If you lose the musical chairs game your 2 years fully guaranteed 12 could be 1 year 2 million.  The players have a ton of risk in free agency this year.  

 

Same goes for the dlinemen.  Addison and butler are likely to get less money than they did a year ago in a lower cap market.  If Buffalo needs space on the butler deal, he extends a 3rd year and gets a 2020 market rate add-on to 2022.  

And it could be even less bc Brown could be cut outright and only walk away with about $1M. And if the cap is as low as is predicted, what’s a 31yr old banged up small wideout gonna get, 1yr $4M? And how much is really guaranteed? So I could see him doing a 2yr deal here where he gets maybe $4M in 2021, with about $3M of it guaranteed, and then maybe $6M in 2022 with maybe $1M-$2M guaranteed and another $1M in roster bonus. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Interesting comment in Spotrac about a Josh Allen contract extension.  Lets not debate as to whether he's a Tier I or Tier II, assume the comment is correct, he's a Tier II. 

 

If so would Allen be better off waiting another season to sign an extension to prove he's really a Tier I?

 

 

Luckily for him, being a Tier 2 QB right now should bag him close to $38M per year.

 

Tier II gets $38M/year? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Tier II gets $38M/year? 

 

I'm just quoting what the article stated.

 

My only question is assuming this is true, would he be better off waiting rather than sign an extension this coming off season?

[BearNorth]

When a fully healthy Milano plays most of the game, we are a better team.  Up to McBeane to determine if he is built for the long term and a big contract.  Know we let Poz go back a few years ago.

 

 

[Dkollidas]

I don’t believe Beane is afraid to give out big contracts to any of these guys. 
 

I believe the rub will be in guaranteed money. They won’t sign contracts that handicap their future unless it’s for franchise type players at important positions (QB, LT, CB1, WR1).

 

That’s basically why we signed guys like Addison and Butler as opposed to Shaq & J. Phillips. 

[Magox]

The Bills will unload Murphy and maybe Star and that will free up some money.  Most likely pay Williams a lot like $11-14 million a year.  Hard to see the Bills retaining Milano unless they can somehow get him for around $10ish M a year range but I don’t see it happening.  They gotta have that money available for J.A.   Even though I wouldn’t be surprised that J.A signs for below his market value for the betterment of the team.

[ghostwriter]

1. Daryl Williams - An above average RT but has had some injury concerns over the years but has been a great player for us.. Wouldn’t pay him top money but he certainly falls within that top 6-10 range.. I’d try an sign him to a 3yr $30M deal or thereabouts.. 
 

2. Jon Feliciano - Good not great lineman, but physical. Ideally I’d like to see us re-sign him to play center for us and we move on from Mitch Morse. Feliciano gets a lot of push in the run game, think if you put him at center and you add a physical run grading RG, Buffalo would have a more effective running game. Don’t think he’d cost much, maybe $7M/yr. Josh Allen also happens to really like Feliciano which is a plus..

 

3. Levi Wallace - Shouldn’t cost much, solid corner that can be had for cheap. Have no idea what his contract would look like, I just know it likely won’t be a whole lot. Underrated player, does a solid job, when he starts he is not a liability. Add another corner by all means, but Levi will provide fantastic depth.

[TPS]

27 minutes ago, Magox said:

The Bills will unload Murphy and maybe Star and that will free up some money.  Most likely pay Williams a lot like $11-14 million a year.  Hard to see the Bills retaining Milano unless they can somehow get him for around $10ish M a year range but I don’t see it happening.  They gotta have that money available for J.A.   Even though I wouldn’t be surprised that J.A signs for below his market value for the betterment of the team.

Murphy is an UFA this year, so there's no savings. Star will cost more to release than keep.  

[TPS]

The Bills will most likely sign all of their RFAs sign(Wallace, Zimmer, Kumerow, Boettger, Bojorquez, and maybe Smith the LB) and their one ERFA (lewis).  They'll probably sign at least 90% of their PS players. 

As the OP asked, which UFAs will they re-sign?

The list includes: Murphy, Milano, Kroft, Norman, Nsekhe, Feliciano, Williams, Winters, Roberts, Barkley, Jones, Yeldon, Marlowe, and McKenzie.

 

For their more expensive signings (>= $5 mil)

,I think they absolutely re-sign Feliciano for his versatility, insurance against Morse's injuries, and he absolutely fits "the process," in fact he is Mr Process.

I don't think they'll be able to afford both Milano and Williams.  Milano wants to be here, so he may give them a nice discount, and given his injury history they may be able to come up with a contract that protects them against that. That leaves Williams on the outside,  from my perspective.

Murphy and Nsekhe are gone, and I don't think they can afford Norman as well.

 

Mid-level ($2 - $5 mil):

I'm they'd like to have Roberts back, but no guarantee.

They'd probably like to have Barkley back, but it will depend on if they can trust Fromm at this point.

Winters is gone.

 

Low-level ($1 -$2 mil)

I think they will try to bring back Jones, Marlowe, and McKenzie.

Yeldon is gone.

 

Summarizing, the UFAs I think they bring back are Feliciano, Milano, Jones, Marlowe, McKenzie, and maybe Roberts and Barkley.  Gone are Murphy, Nsekhe, Norman, Kroft, Winters, Yeldon, and Williams.

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

D. Williams has earned his check man....the best RT we have had in years

[Mango]

11 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I don't see Lee Smith or Butler leaving a hole. I think you can find a vet minimum player to replace Smith who is a very niche player and Star comes back to replace Butler so no hole there.

 

Setting the cap at 175 million would be a disaster for the NFL as almost all of the league would be completely up against or way over it. I think they either do what the NBA did and keep the cap about what it was projected to be but then keep a percentage of the players salaries in escrow and claw back whatever is needed to make the owners balanced in terms of their share of revenues or simply borrow more from future revenues. 

 

The TV deals are where most of the NFL revenues come from so I doubt they can't get by.

 

I hope that 175 number won't manifest because then John Brown, Mitch, Hughes, Butler, Addison, Smith and Tyler are all gone and so would 2 out of the 3 players we need to resign

 

10 hours ago, Doc said:

There's no way they're keeping the cap at $175M.  The owners will need to make a lot of cuts and players will lose out on a lot of money.  Plus the vaccines are here and things are looking up.  

 

 

Keeping the cap at $175M would be an unnecessarily terrible decision that would haunt the league for years. The TV contract alone clears the cap by about ~$50M. 
 

There is minimal to zero need to not keep a flat cap in 2021 with a MAJOR bounce back in 2022. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

16 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

And it could be even less bc Brown could be cut outright and only walk away with about $1M. And if the cap is as low as is predicted, what’s a 31yr old banged up small wideout gonna get, 1yr $4M? And how much is really guaranteed? So I could see him doing a 2yr deal here where he gets maybe $4M in 2021, with about $3M of it guaranteed, and then maybe $6M in 2022 with maybe $1M-$2M guaranteed and another $1M in roster bonus. 

 

Right - Same goes for butler, and probably Diggs and addison too.  Move base salary out of 2021 into a year with a likely larger cap.  The chance of getting more term is very low out there currently.