Prioritize which upcoming UFA’s to re-sign

[Doc]

37 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I called Spains Number perfect, and InCognitos number perfect as well.  I am pretty good at nailing the number on re-signing price

 

If Williams gets any Pro Bowl, much less All-Pro nods, his price will be much much higher than that.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

Ill worry about this in Feb.  Hopefully we will have just won the Superbowl and I wont care who leaves.

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Really?? In only three games this years he's had more than 4 catches, so how much has he really elevated?  They have a lot of upcoming FA that are playing actively in games and contributing that will need to replace.  WR is the one deep position the team has.

Smoke Brown's value to the team is not captured by looking merely at just his stats.  He opens the field for everyone else.  I can tell the difference in how teams have to play the Bills when Smoke is out there.  The lanes and room for Diggs and Beasley to operate is vastly different.

 

I would like to keep most of the offense intact.  That includes Smoke, Mongo, and Williams.  It's Beane's job to get this done, didn't say it would be easy.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

31 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Smoke Brown's value to the team is not captured by looking merely at just his stats.  He opens the field for everyone else.  I can tell the difference in how teams have to play the Bills when Smoke is out there.  The lanes and room for Diggs and Beasley to operate is vastly different.

 

I would like to keep most of the offense intact.  That includes Smoke, Mongo, and Williams.  It's Beane's job to get this done, didn't say it would be easy.

 

You can tell the difference?  Really Even though he's hardly played?

 

Agree I'd like to keep the offense intact to, but can't see how they can afford to without some big cuts.  And IMO one of the easiest is Brown as his replacement is already on the roster with the only thing you're losing is a bit of speed.  Certainly that's nice to have, but may be a luxury they can't afford.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

We will live and die on the arm and legs of Josh Allen.  Keeping him protected is our #1 priority for the next 12+ years.

 

williams

mongo

milano

 

I say Williams first because he plays the more important position compared to mongo.  Williams play vs Watt increased his value.  We have to keep him....as long as his price tag isn’t astronomical.  The question is.... what’s astronomical.  I was thinking 10-12 mill a year would be the max.  Now I’m thinking his tag went up and could be as much as 15 mill a year.  If that’s the case, can we afford to pay him?  Idk.  Getting nauseous just thinking about it,  Beane has some work to do.

 

Mongo has the additional value in that he can also play center. He seems to be the heart and soul of the OL.  What’s he cost? 5-6 mill a year? Make it happen.  He’s a glue guy that performs well.

 

I love Milano. I want to keep Milano.  That said, this is a number game.  Salary cap numbers.  The numbers tell me we can’t sign everyone and injury prone players should be among those that aren’t kept, regardless of how good they are.  If he wants to take 8 mill a year, maybe we can make it work.  Imo, we can’t keep him if he’s getting paid 13+

 

We are a better team with Milano, no question, but I agree with most of the responses here. Protecting Josh is first and foremost, and keeping guys around that can stay healthy is an important part of Beane's evaluation I am sure.

 

Diggs and Allen seem like a combination you would want to keep intact for a while, but the Bills may have to get pretty creative with the numbers Diggs is piling up.

 

And I too, would not relish having to make some of those decisions that Beane has to make, but there are times the Bills have had to let good players walk and they go on to have success elsewhere so no hard feelings.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

I like Milano but I am tempted to let him walk.

 

Williams has played well, Mongo is maybe our best lineman. and we may need a C depending on what Morse does this offseason regarding his health. We need to stop reshuffling the line every year. I probably try and sign Williams to a 2-3 year deal and draft a cheaper replacement to start grooming now. I would try and kick the can down the road with Milano and hope he takes a cheap "prove it" sort of deal given his recent injuries this year. I think we just need to find an athlete to rotate with Klein going forward and we should be OK. 

I hear ya, but Milano has already proven it,  and there in lies the problem, he will be willing to take a discount to some degree, jmo.
 

Go Bills !!!

[Protocal69]

56 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Smoke Brown's value to the team is not captured by looking merely at just his stats.  He opens the field for everyone else.  I can tell the difference in how teams have to play the Bills when Smoke is out there.  The lanes and room for Diggs and Beasley to operate is vastly different.

 

I would like to keep most of the offense intact.  That includes Smoke, Mongo, and Williams.  It's Beane's job to get this done, didn't say it would be easy.

Against Pittsburgh there were some plays that they double Diggs AND Beasley. If John Brown was on the field he would have torched his one on one matchup

[Einstein's Dog]

21 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You can tell the difference?  Really Even though he's hardly played?

 

Agree I'd like to keep the offense intact to, but can't see how they can afford to without some big cuts.  And IMO one of the easiest is Brown as his replacement is already on the roster with the only thing you're losing is a bit of speed.  Certainly that's nice to have, but may be a luxury they can't afford.

Yes, the difference seems pretty pronounced to me.  Smoke has played plenty and the offense looks better.  We'll see on his return.

 

Secondly, Gabe is not a replacement for Smoke.  You're not just losing speed.  Like the long pass where Gabe went out of bounds, Collinsworth mentioned how he should have slowed up and let the defender bowl into him for a pass interference.  Even if you think Gabe might improve and take a spot you would still need another.

 

I hope they don't feel that is the way to go.  I want the continuity on offense.  Lots of other places to cut - L Smith, Murphy, Norman, maybe Milano, Butler.

[Mango]

12 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear ya, but Milano has already proven it,  and there in lies the problem, he will be willing to take a discount to some degree, jmo.
 

Go Bills !!!

 

I am not sure he has. When available he has proven to be a player....But he only has one season of hitting his snap % goal. We have proven that we can run that LB2 position by committee while he averages part time snaps over the last few years. If he had a healthy season this year he probably gets $15M next year from somebody to be an every down back. I don't know what he gets now in all honesty. 

[Dkollidas]

I’ve listened to a lot of Greg Tompset on Cover 1 and using Over The Cap to look at our 2021 situation.

 

I think we should walk into 2021 with about $5M in initial cap space. But with doing some things that do NOT include cutting John Brown or even a Mario Addison, we should be able to clear about $30M on top of that.

 

So with $35M we should be able to sign a draft class, and fill the bottom of the roster, and still have roughly $25M or so (I believe vets like Andre Roberts, Kroft etc will be back on 1yr veteran minimum deals). With that cap space we will definitely be able to get 2/3 of Milano Feliciano & Williams. Possibly 3/3 but it would likely involve some backloading of contracts, and even then I could see a team like the Jaguars, Jets, Redskins or Bengals willing to throw $13M at him (JuWuan James type deal). These are all teams with big O-Line needs and large amounts of cap space.

 

Lastly, I do wonder if Beane would consider transition tagging him and trading him. But I really don’t think they’d do anything like that, if he signs for enough they’ll get a comp pick out of it anyways.

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I am not sure he has. When available he has proven to be a player....But he only has one season of hitting his snap % goal. We have proven that we can run that LB2 position by committee while he averages part time snaps over the last few years. If he had a healthy season this year he probably gets $15M next year from somebody to be an every down back. I don't know what he gets now in all honesty. 

He has in that the D is better when he is playing, I do get the down time aspect, but he is an important part of our D performing up to expectations. We shall see, I could see Beane letting him walk if he is uncooperative. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I’ve listened to a lot of Greg Tompset on Cover 1 and using Over The Cap to look at our 2021 situation.

 

I think we should walk into 2021 with about $5M in initial cap space. But with doing some things that do NOT include cutting John Brown or even a Mario Addison, we should be able to clear about $30M on top of that.

 

So with $35M we should be able to sign a draft class, and fill the bottom of the roster, and still have roughly $25M or so (I believe vets like Andre Roberts, Kroft etc will be back on 1yr veteran minimum deals). With that cap space we will definitely be able to get 2/3 of Milano Feliciano & Williams. Possibly 3/3 but it would likely involve some backloading of contracts, and even then I could see a team like the Jaguars, Jets, Redskins or Bengals willing to throw $13M at him (JuWuan James type deal). These are all teams with big O-Line needs and large amounts of cap space.

 

Lastly, I do wonder if Beane would consider transition tagging him and trading him. But I really don’t think they’d do anything like that, if he signs for enough they’ll get a comp pick out of it anyways.

Is that with keeping Butler?  Initially, I thought he was a goner for sure.  Now, I dunno if letting him go is a good idea. He and Ed have been playing very well next to each other the last few games. I guess we’d just replace him with star and save the cap space, but I think he’ll be missed.  We’ll see how he plays down the stretch 

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is that with keeping Butler?  Initially, I thought he was a goner for sure.  Now, I dunno if letting him go is a good idea. He and Ed have been playing very well next to each other the last few games. I guess we’d just replace him with star and save the cap space, but I think he’ll be missed.  We’ll see how he plays down the stretch 

 

Butler will probably be the DL that goes unless something happens with Star.

I still think there is a good chance that Star hangs up the cleats next year.

 

Guys like Poyer and Beasley will also jump at the chance to move some salary money in a restructure bonus.

Both have almost no guaranteed (dead money) left on their deals.

 

I agree with a lot that @Dkollidas said in his post above.  Beane has a lot of tools to sign the "Big 3" if he wishes.

Of course that's supposing they don't want to leave for much bigger money somewhere else.

I'm also with the crowd that thinks the 175 floor will be higher one way or the other.

 

Fans got to start thinking that Buffalo is a destination point going forward!

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Is that with keeping Butler?  Initially, I thought he was a goner for sure.  Now, I dunno if letting him go is a good idea. He and Ed have been playing very well next to each other the last few games. I guess we’d just replace him with star and save the cap space, but I think he’ll be missed.  We’ll see how he plays down the stretch 

That’s with cutting him. But with Star coming back, they’ll have Oliver, Star, Butler, Phillips, Jefferson and Zimmer back next year. They’ll need to drop one for sure, and a 2nd might be relegated to practice squad. Butlers been decent but he’s an easy contract to get out of. They either cut him or convince him to lower his cap hit (similar to Kroft and DiMarco prior to this season).

Edited December 16, 2020 by Dkollidas

[klos63]

Most teams may be in cap trouble if it drops to $175M, so the contracts will either be shorter, cheaper or both for this offseason.  If the team thinks that Ford will be a solid guard, I would expect Ford and Ike the guards and Feliciano center, losing Morse to save money.  

 

As the cap will likely jump back up the following year, it wouldn't surprise me to see players like Brown, Butler , Addison , Star... restructured to give a year of relief against the cap.

Edited December 16, 2020 by klos63

[Saint Doug]

4 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

I know Williams played well against Watt. But he also got burned pretty well by Bosa. So it’s not like he’s perfect. I just wonder if he’s going to be looking for the biggest deal he can get. Played a rookie contract, then got a 1yr $6M from Carolina and a 1yr $2.5M deal from us... I could see him getting $13M+ on the market. I think Beane has shown a talent for finding linemen (he put this entire line together minus the fact he didn’t draft Dawkins). I think he could replace Williams if needed. And adding a rookie to the group would help with the cap spent on the O-Line. 

Let’s not forget how long it took Beane to find a RT. Last year it was Ford. That failed. The years before, Jordan Mills. That guy alone was the cause of many ottomans being flipped in WNY on Sundays. It took Beane 3 years to gather a respectable OL, so let’s not let it fall apart. Give Williams $10M. That’s nearly 5x what he’s making this year. And when he asks for $13M, we can remind him about Bosa. 

[DJB]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sign Feliciano -  5-6M AAV

Sign Williams - 6-8M AAV

 

Let Milano Walk

Cut Morse

 

Rd 1 - Kyle Pitts - TE

Rd 2 - Chaz Surratt, LB

Rd 3 - Brenton ox Jr - Edge

 

Spotrac has Milano pegged around 10M AAV.

 

So I am thinking 8M AAV keeps him as well.  I think I would be ok at 8M AAV nothing more if it will take more I am moving on.

 

 

Also CB2 is already on this Roster in Dane Jackson

 

Id love Pitts and have been banging the table for this guy for almost two years. 

 

That being said I think we will have to move up to get Pitts (Waller JR. )

Edited December 16, 2020 by DJB

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Most teams may be in cap trouble if it drops to $175M, so the contracts will either be shorter, cheaper or both for this offseason.  If the team thinks that Ford will be a solid guard, I would expect Ford and Ike the guards and Feliciano center, losing Morse to save money.  

 

As the cap will likely jump back up the following year, it wouldn't surprise me to see players like Brown, Butler , Addison , Star... restructured to give a year of relief against the cap.

 

It will be a buyers market but "most" teams are not going to be in cap trouble.

 

Only 13 of the 32 teams project to have less than $10M in cap space at this point including the Bills who are at about $4M.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yes, the difference seems pretty pronounced to me.  Smoke has played plenty and the offense looks better.  We'll see on his return.

 

Secondly, Gabe is not a replacement for Smoke.  You're not just losing speed.  Like the long pass where Gabe went out of bounds, Collinsworth mentioned how he should have slowed up and let the defender bowl into him for a pass interference.  Even if you think Gabe might improve and take a spot you would still need another.

 

I hope they don't feel that is the way to go.  I want the continuity on offense.  Lots of other places to cut - L Smith, Murphy, Norman, maybe Milano, Butler.

 

You're not cutting Murphy, Norman and Milano! Those three are all upcoming free agents so they don't count.  You only save money by cutting players under contract for next season.

 

The Bills projected payroll next season for the 40 players under contract is about $170 Mil leaving them to be about $4.8 Mil under the cap of $175 Mil,  Rumor has it the cap may end up going up to $190 Mil so that would leave them about $20 Mil under.  Out of that 20 mil they need to save about $5 Mil for draft picks and ideally save another $3 to $5 Mil for replacement players signing due to injures etc.

 

There was around 18 to 20 upcoming FA on the Bills roster 16 of which are players that gave a meaningful contribution to this years team so need to replace with equal quality.  As I stated they only have 40 players under contract, considering that this team is getting pretty deep and stronger, lets assume 6 draft picks make next years roster, that means they still need to sign around10 players just so that they would end up with 53 players on opening day.  And they have about $10 maybe $12 Mil to sign those ten with.  So how you going to do that without making some big cuts, but again to save money you can only cut players who are actually under contract for next year.  

 

Butler would save you think it was around $7 mil so agree with that one, Addison would get you another $6 Mil, Morse is worth around a $5 Mil saving, Smith is only going to save you about $2 Mil so not sure if he's worth cutting as you'd likely want to replace him with another blocking TE.  Kroft is also a FA BTW so the only TE you'd have left on the roster would be Knox, Gilliam, and Sweeney if you cut Smith too.

 

Both Norman and Wallace are FA's so there goes both your #2 CB.  At least Wallace is a restricted FA so can resign him on the cheap.  Bojo is also a FA, again restricted so can resign cheap.  McKenzie, T Jones, Barkley, and Roberts are also upcoming FA's too. There are only 4 O-lineman under contract next year, Dawkins, Bates, Ford, and Morse, but if they cut him to save the money, then only three left signed. And BTW if they do cut those 4 players I mention instead of having ten open roster spots, they now have 14 to fill, admittedly gained around $20 mil more they can spend.  Two slots will be filled by Star and Gaines if he can stay healthy.

 

Does Davis have the wherewithal of Brown at this point, no, but he's a rookie, he can learn.  Would I like to see them keep Brown yes, but just can't see how they could do that and still be able to sign Feliciano, Williams, and Milano. Of the three I'd rate Milano the lowest  so if I had to lose one, maybe it's him.  If they can get Brown down to about $4 Mil then he's worth keeping.  But if I had to decide between signing those 3 or keeping Brown, I'd let Brown go.  And even if they signed all three of them with the $20 mil, you still have another ten or so roster spots to fill the names of the upcoming free agents I mentioned above.

 

I don't think they are in dire shape, but will require a couple of cuts or major restructures of players you don't wish to see leave to maintain or improve the roster.  And many here will be very upset to hear some of the names that may be gone.

 

Players Under Contract

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2021/

 

Free Agents

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/

[Dkollidas]

28 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You're not cutting Murphy, Norman and Milano! Those three are all upcoming free agents so they don't count.  You only save money by cutting players under contract for next season.

 

The Bills projected payroll next season for the 40 players under contract is about $170 Mil leaving them to be about $4.8 Mil under the cap of $175 Mil,  Rumor has it the cap may end up going up to $190 Mil so that would leave them about $20 Mil under.  Out of that 20 mil they need to save about $5 Mil for draft picks and ideally save another $3 to $5 Mil for replacement players signing due to injures etc.

 

There was around 18 to 20 upcoming FA on the Bills roster 16 of which are players that gave a meaningful contribution to this years team so need to replace with equal quality.  As I stated they only have 40 players under contract, considering that this team is getting pretty deep and stronger, lets assume 6 draft picks make next years roster, that means they still need to sign around10 players just so that they would end up with 53 players on opening day.  And they have about $10 maybe $12 Mil to sign those ten with.  So how you going to do that without making some big cuts, but again to save money you can only cut players who are actually under contract for next year.  

 

Butler would save you think it was around $7 mil so agree with that one, Addison would get you another $6 Mil, Morse is worth around a $5 Mil saving, Smith is only going to save you about $2 Mil so not sure if he's worth cutting as you'd likely want to replace him with another blocking TE.  Kroft is also a FA BTW so the only TE you'd have left on the roster would be Knox, Gilliam, and Sweeney if you cut Smith too.

 

Both Norman and Wallace are FA's so there goes both your #2 CB.  At least Wallace is a restricted FA so can resign him on the cheap.  Bojo is also a FA, again restricted so can resign cheap.  McKenzie, T Jones, Barkley, and Roberts are also upcoming FA's too. There are only 4 O-lineman under contract next year, Dawkins, Bates, Ford, and Morse, but if they cut him to save the money, then only three left signed. And BTW if they do cut those 4 players I mention instead of having ten open roster spots, they now have 14 to fill, admittedly gained around $20 mil more they can spend.  Two slots will be filled by Star and Gaines if he can stay healthy.

 

Does Davis have the wherewithal of Brown at this point, no, but he's a rookie, he can learn.  Would I like to see them keep Brown yes, but just can't see how they could do that and still be able to sign Feliciano, Williams, and Milano. Of the three I'd rate Milano the lowest  so if I had to lose one, maybe it's him.  If they can get Brown down to about $4 Mil then he's worth keeping.  But if I had to decide between signing those 3 or keeping Brown, I'd let Brown go.  And even if they signed all three of them with the $20 mil, you still have another ten or so roster spots to fill the names of the upcoming free agents I mentioned above.

 

I don't think they are in dire shape, but will require a couple of cuts or major restructures of players you don't wish to see leave to maintain or improve the roster.  And many here will be very upset to hear some of the names that may be gone.

 

Players Under Contract

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2021/

 

Free Agents

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/

There’s a lot more you can do than just cutting players. Restructuring Diggs’ contract, extending Hughed, Brown, & Hyde will all save money as well. Then offer reduced salaries to Butler & Matakevich, if they don’t accept greatly reduced deals... cut em. And cut Lee Smith.