How we can still get a first round bye? critical paths

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Chargers almost beat the Chiefs this season, no? They have pretty much played the Chiefs the best. And this season - there really is no home field - Arrowhead is not really rocking

 

That doesn’t detract from the fact that the joint probability of KC losing to both Saints and Chargers and the Bills winning out and Steelers winning 2 out of 3 is low. But by itself, I don’t think Lynn  playing for his job and beating the Chiefs is improbable. Especially this season with COVID hanging over players’ heads. lose a couple of key players and anything can happen

 

 

"Almost beating" isn't beating. Yeah, the Chargers "almost beat the Chiefs this season," yeah.

 

The Chargers have almost beaten a lot of teams this year. They just didn't actually beat any that weren't the Jets, Jags and Falcons. Yes, the Chargers beating the Chiefs really is improbable. Not impossible, but very improbable.

[Warcodered]

23 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

KC has tiebreaker over Buffalo 

a tie record will not help the Bills

 

 

Different rules apply for a 3 way tie if a team beats both the others then they win or a team has lost to both they're eliminated. If not it proceeds down. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

29 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

The 1 seed is unrealistic and undeserved. The 2 seed is realistic and deserved. I think it's going to happen.

This only happens if the Steelers and Chiefs lose more games themselves and we win out I wouldn't feel like that if they do.

[jkeerie]

50 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

KC has tiebreaker over Buffalo 

a tie record will not help the Bills

 

 

Actually, according to the ESPN playoff machine, if KC and the Bills both tie at 13-3 and one of KC losses is to the Chargers and the other to NO, the Bills get the tie breaker based on strength of schedule win %.  In this scenario, Pitt also has a 13-3 record.

Edited December 15, 2020 by jkeerie

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

i post a lot

but

 

in as few words as possible

Correct KC needs 3 losses.  

 

Buffalo and Pitt same record Bills get the tiebreaker 

 

 

KC needs three losses total.  If BUF, PIT, and KC all finish 13-3 BUF wins most of the 3 way tie breaker scenarios.  If you are thinking about this, Cleveland winning tonight helps fractionally.

 

Also, to keep it simple, you want anyone we beat to win as much as possible (apart from beating us of course). You want anyone KC beat to lose as much as possible.  You want teams PIT beat to lose.  If it gets to this point strength of victory could be the tie breaker and ours is really good at the moment. Carolina seems to be oddly important to this scenario.

Edited December 15, 2020 by That's No Moon

[Tuco]

33 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Actually, according to the ESPN playoff machine, if KC and the Bills both tie at 13-3 and one of KC losses is to the Chargers and the other to NO, the Bills get the tie breaker based on strength of schedule win %.  In this scenario, Pitt also has a 13-3 record.

 

This is correct. A two way tie with KC we lose. A two way tie with Pitt we win. A three way tie with Pitt and KC we win on SOV as long as one of the KC losses is the Chargers.

 

A four way tie would eliminate Baltimore first as Pitt beat them twice. So a 4 way tie is a 3 way tie.

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

3-way after div tie-break - too lazy to figure out which of the 4 gets the bye - so ex-ante it is one out of those 4😀

 

It's still strength of victory, and the Bills have a 99% chance of finishing with a better strength of victory than the Browns, Pitt and KC (assuming they all end 13-3.) But there's only a 1% chance of that happening. 

[F.W. Cyclone]

3 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

ok, after KC beating the Fins a first round bye for us is going to have only a 1-2% probability - but here are the narrow paths  - let us say we have to win our last 3 games to get to 13-3. Basically we are in Dalton to Boyd Hail Mary territory - but, hey that did happen, no?

 

a. KC loses their last three and Pitt loses at least one game and Browns lose at least one game - we are tied with Pitt (hold tiebreaker) at worst

 

b. more realistically, let us say KC beats Atlanta but loses the other two (Saints and Chargers) - we are both 13-3 but they hold head to head tie break over us -  then Pittsburgh needs to get to 13-3 so it is a 3 way tie break - which means Pittsburgh needs to win 2 and lose one (say, Colts).

 

 

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

KC needs three losses total.  If BUF, PIT, and KC all finish 13-3 BUF wins most of the 3 way tie breaker scenarios.  If you are thinking about this, Cleveland winning tonight helps fractionally.

 

Also, to keep it simple, you want anyone we beat to win as much as possible (apart from beating us of course). You want anyone KC beat to lose as much as possible.  You want teams PIT beat to lose.  If it gets to this point strength of victory could be the tie breaker and ours is really good at the moment. Carolina seems to be oddly important to this scenario.

No one circles the Buffalo Bills like  Carolina 🙂

[dma0034]

One of the losses of KC in the 3 team tie breaker needs to be to the Chargers. 

 

 

In a 3 way tie the Bills win the Tie Breaker with the Chiefs due to common opponents. Bills 8-0 and the Chiefs wpuld be 6-2. Bills win tie breaker with Steelers in the tie breaker due to strength of victory (13-3 Steelers). 

Edited December 15, 2020 by dma0034

[FieldGeneral]

Bills' best shot at the Super Bowl is nabbing the 2 Seed and hoping KC stumbles in the playoffs. We're a full season away from fielding a true Championship team. 

[machine gun kelly]

I wouldn’t worry about it.  The best that can happen and don’t care is second seed, only because they still have the Colts and Browns.  They’ll beat the Bengals.  We’d have to win all three.  I don’t see it mattering as we either play the seventh or sixth seed.  I guess if we win wildcard weekend, it could matter in the second round.

 

I guess there is some value assuming we beat whoever in round 1 as the second game would be at home, and if KC keeps winning the AFCC would be in KC.  There is some hope there.  Pittsburgh has a good defense, but those injuries may plague them against the Colts and Browns.  By then, they should get Hayden back, but thin at the LB corps.

Edited December 15, 2020 by machine gun kelly

[MJS]

You know, 1st seed and the bye would be awesome for sure. Obviously that's the dream scenario.

 

But deep down, I kind of want to see the Bills play every single round. The more Bills games the better (as long as they win them, of course). I'd love for Allen and the Bills to go into the conference championship with two awesome home playoff wins under their belt.

2 hours ago, FieldGeneral said:

Bills' best shot at the Super Bowl is nabbing the 2 Seed and hoping KC stumbles in the playoffs. We're a full season away from fielding a true Championship team. 

That was my mentality in the off season, but I'm not sure how anyone could have watched the season play out so far and not believe that the Bills have a legitimate shot at a Superbowl this year. Will it be tough? For sure. We see great teams, experienced teams, fail to make it to the Superbowl year after year (Saints, for example). But the Bills have a dang good team and could go all the way, even through the Chiefs. If the Raiders can bear them, the Bills can too.

 

KC will be there next year too. If not this year, why next year?

[Utah John]

The Bills can't win a first round bye this week. They can only win one game this week.  They need to keep the focus they've had almost every week, and win this game.

 

The Bills and the Broncos are the only two original AFL franchises that never moved nor changed their name.  I don't know why this never gets a mention from anyone.

[Warcodered]

24 minutes ago, Utah John said:

The Bills can't win a first round bye this week. They can only win one game this week.  They need to keep the focus they've had almost every week, and win this game.

 

The Bills and the Broncos are the only two original AFL franchises that never moved nor changed their name.  I don't know why this never gets a mention from anyone.

I mean it only works if they win all their games so yeah their focus is obviously on getting the next win. Not to mention it'll clench the AFC East.

[CorkScrewHill]

On 12/14/2020 at 7:35 PM, IgotBILLStopay said:

ok, after KC beating the Fins a first round bye for us is going to have only a 1-2% probability - but here are the narrow paths  - let us say we have to win our last 3 games to get to 13-3. Basically we are in Dalton to Boyd Hail Mary territory - but, hey that did happen, no?

 

a. KC loses their last three and Pitt loses at least one game and Browns lose at least one game - we are tied with Pitt (hold tiebreaker) at worst

 

b. more realistically, let us say KC beats Atlanta but loses the other two (Saints and Chargers) - we are both 13-3 but they hold head to head tie break over us -  then Pittsburgh needs to get to 13-3 so it is a 3 way tie break - which means Pittsburgh needs to win 2 and lose one (say, Colts).

 

sorry .. I missed this post .. you are absolutely correct. Sorry for creating a duplicate thread

[IgotBILLStopay]

16 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

sorry .. I missed this post .. you are absolutely correct. Sorry for creating a duplicate thread

no worries. I have been as guilty of that as anybody else on the board. You are good.