Mr. WEO Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: This is literally agreeing with me in my entire premise which you laughed at and tried to pick apart... Now it’s up to you to decipher if he’s actually good or benefiting from a lacking receiving corps... I will use another example... was Robert Foster good or did he benefit from a lacking receiving corps? The Robert Foster #1 receiver argument was the same thing... it was dumb then and it’s dumb now. He was lucky that there was literally nobody else to throw to and the second actual upgrades arrived in the form of John Brown and Cole Beasley he went nearly unused and was rendered useless upon the arrival of Diggs and Davis. Perfect example of a player on a bad team putting up decent numbers solely because the team is bad, not because they’re a NFL starting caliber player. It’s the same concept. Got it. Only a month in 2016... so it’s just 2 seasons. A good receiver is a guy who, when you target him, he is highly likely to catch the ball over a large number of targets. If he's no good, then it won't matter how good or bad the other receivers are. Foster was never the Bills #1 receiver (or a "#1 WR" at all). Zay Jones had over 100 targets in 2018 and twice as many catches as Foster.
Ya Digg? Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said: He really is Mahomes security blanket. Just look at some of the plays from the Dolphins game. When nothing was there, while scrambling, Mahomes threw balls towards Kelce and he made the plays against his defenders. Those plays kept drives going. Josh tried that a couple of times with Knox in the Steelers game and no bueno. Not saying Kelce is not a weapon, but definitely a security blanket Like I said I know that I am nitpicking, my point is Kelce is so much more than a security blanket-he runs every route possible, he goes deep, he does everything...I just think that Kelce was the wrong example to use when it was said that Josh doesn’t need a guy to go deep or be a playmaker-that’s exactly what Kelce is. I guess it all comes down to what you think a security blanket is-to me, Kelce is so much more than a security blanket, that’s all I was trying to say and probably shouldn’t pick the best or second best tight end in the league as the example 1
RyanC883 Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 I’d lime to see Knox run the ball on short yardage plays. He runs with aggression and is always going forward. His catching can be an adventure, but overall I wouldn’t cut him.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said: He really is Mahomes security blanket. Just look at some of the plays from the Dolphins game. When nothing was there, while scrambling, Mahomes threw balls towards Kelce and he made the plays against his defenders. Those plays kept drives going. Josh tried that a couple of times with Knox in the Steelers game and no bueno. Not saying Kelce is not a weapon, but definitely a security blanket Credit where due...Josh had 3 key completions to Dawson Knox in the 2nd half. One was a key quick hit short pass to Dawson Knox that converted 3rd and 11 for 16 yds. One was a pass that went for 4 yds on 3rd and 6. I don't remember how much of it was YAC, but we failed to convert and punted. The third was on our TD drive right after half, short right for 8 yds on 1 and 10. Those were "security blanket" type throws and 2/3 helped move the chains. There was also that massive deep shot to a double covered Knox that was DPI, and got us a FG to put it back to a 2 score game. He had an additional completion in the 1st half which resulted in his "fumble". So 3 of 7 "no bueno"; not quiet the same as "tried a couple times and no bueno" But, 3 of 7 "no bueno" is not exactly a "high security" feeling. Kelce was an amazing weapon for KC before Mahomes and has continued to be. And yes, that is how he's used - no one else is open but between Kelce's height, vertical leap, and ability to adjust on the ball he is almost always there for Pat, "security blanket" is a good word for him. 53 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: I’d lime to see Knox run the ball on short yardage plays. He runs with aggression and is always going forward. His catching can be an adventure, but overall I wouldn’t cut him. No thanks. Knox ball security on runs in traffic is even more of an adventure than his catching. 1
Solomon Grundy Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Credit where due...Josh had 3 key completions to Dawson Knox in the 2nd half. One was a key quick hit short pass to Dawson Knox that converted 3rd and 11 for 16 yds. One was a pass that went for 4 yds on 3rd and 6. I don't remember how much of it was YAC, but we failed to convert and punted. The third was on our TD drive right after half, short right for 8 yds on 1 and 10. Those were "security blanket" type throws and 2/3 helped move the chains. There was also that massive deep shot to a double covered Knox that was DPI, and got us a FG to put it back to a 2 score game. He had an additional completion in the 1st half which resulted in his "fumble". So 3 of 7 "no bueno"; not quiet the same as "tried a couple times and no bueno" But, 3 of 7 "no bueno" is not exactly a "high security" feeling. Kelce was an amazing weapon for KC before Mahomes and has continued to be. And yes, that is how he's used - no one else is open but between Kelce's height, vertical leap, and ability to adjust on the ball he is almost always there for Pat, "security blanket" is a good word for him. No thanks. Knox ball security on runs in traffic is even more of an adventure than his catching. I was referencing the couple of times that Josh threw the ball to Knox to try and make Kelce type plays in that game. Plays that we all have seen other TEs around the league make.
billsbackto81 Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 I'd hate to see Knox become the next Wyatt Teller. It's just too early to give up on someone with his athleticism. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: I was referencing the couple of times that Josh threw the ball to Knox to try and make Kelce type plays in that game. Plays that we all have seen other TEs around the league make. Understood, but several of the plays I described he made were Kelce-type plays. Kelce doesn't just play over the middle
billybob71 Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 im not quite ready to give up on Knox, i realize he has had his issues with ball security and drops but he has shown flashes. Due to his inexperience as a receiver in college and his injury and covid this year i wanna see him get more time to see if he can improve.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 On 12/17/2020 at 1:23 PM, JGMcD2 said: I’m not disregarding the earlier parts of your posts they’re just so well written, I don’t really much to say other than great job. I mentioned it late in my previous post... Josh just doesn’t target his tight ends a lot. He’s comfortable going to his WR. I’m honestly curious how many targets his TE get in the RZ because it feels like that’s where he goes after them the most. Could it also be that our offense isn’t set up to feed the ball to a TE? I know we often like to link Daboll to NE a little bit but their TE usage didn’t really ramp up until around 2006 with Ben Watson. Prior to that it was WR heavy with TE getting 23, 40 and 63 targets in the years prior. Obviously we remember the Gronk and Hernandez offenses the most, but TE wasn’t always a major emphasis there either. Idk... now I’m just blabbering with no real direction. So this Cover1 video probably deserves its own thread, but it's germaine I think our offense is set up just fine to feed the ball on short routes to a TE, or to Beasley or another WR instead of a TE. 26:54 in. 1st and 10. This is an example of the type of play design I see a fair amount, where Knox and Motor are open short, and Josh chooses to go long. "Who wouldn't rather throw to Diggs and Beasley than to Knox?" you say. Except on this play: it's KNOX who went deep, and it's Beasley (yellow underline, near the hash marks) who is lonely and lookin' for loooove. And Josh rolls out and makes a deep throw across his body to Knox for the incompletion. Hit Beas, and he almost certainly gets 5 yards, maybe more if Josh hits him quick. Don't like that throw? Hit Motor, he might make a guy miss and get more. The more I watch Josh, the more I think he's still smokin' the "No, Coach, Brett Favre says Touchdowns First" cigars and it's just that it's often Knox who's where Beasley is on this play while it's Diggs or Gabe Davis downfield. Step away from the cigars, Josh, they're bad news when you mix them with wine - or with an offense struggling to get anything going against a top D. Take what they give you! The Cover1 guys are all over Josh that's an impossible throw across his body on the run, Patrick Mahomes couldn't make that throw. About that.... Looks like Knox actually gets both hands on it, but he just can't bring it down. Sutton may get a hand in there. Of course, we don't know what Josh's reads are or coaching, and it's possible he's being coached to take a few deep shots early in the game? Either way, I'm for get some stuff going, move the chains, if the D feels the need to clamp down on the short stuff the deep stuff will open up a bit. The next play Josh went right back to Knox short, and he fumbled 😥 (or deflected a ball for a pick, as you like) Anyway. Daboll was TE coach in NE in 2014-2016. 2014 was Gronkowski's first >1000 yd season. Hard to say how much influence Daboll had on coaching or on play design there, but at the very least he had a close ringside seat to effective use of a TE in NE. PS thanks for the kind words! 1
Joe Ferguson Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 Trade Knox for a bag rocks to get Gronkowski. 1
HardyBoy Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 Holy crap...two season, one offseason entirely cut because of covid. Almost exclusively a blocking TE in college and has immediate contribution in the nfl, granted with flaws...that over the last 3 weeks have been not just getting significantly better (how many times does he drop that away from his body akward catch td against sf earlier in his career), and has kept a veteran TE in kroft on the bench so obviously has shown something to this very quality coaching staff over the last month to show he's turned the corner. Tell me about how we need to replace our kicker and punter again...seriously, if it was up to the fans we'd have rosen, some retread punter and a downward trending kicker.
Bob in STL Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) I’ve been thinking about Knox and although I am somewhat disappointed in him I have no problem with him getting another year to continue his development. He was little used in college, he was raw which is why he wasn’t drafted sooner. We need to see how the draft board looks but I think BPA at CB, OL, or Front 7 would be more impactful in the first 2 rounds. Edited December 19, 2020 by Bob in STL
Nelius Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 Josh Allen clearly loves him so that's enough for me. Get him a legit #1 TE please, but Knox has a spot on this team right now.
Rochesterfan Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 5 hours ago, Nelius said: Josh Allen clearly loves him so that's enough for me. Get him a legit #1 TE please, but Knox has a spot on this team right now. This just is not happening - in my opinion. I don’t think the Bills are looking for a legit #1 TE an certainly do not seem like they will have the Cap space to trade for #1. They are asking their TEs - be it Knox, Kroft, Smith, or Gilliam to play a half back blocking role. That does not work for guys like Kelce, Gesicki, Waller, Engram, etc. They aren’t blockers - they are glorified receivers and that role is picked up by Beasley for the Bills - who by the way has more receptions than all the TEs except Kelce and Waller and those 2 lead their teams in catches by quite a bit and I would rather have Diggs leading the team. People in this thread (not you at all) are crapping on Knox and yes he still has a long ways to go, but the expectations just make no sense. People want a TE like Gesicki, but then the Dolphins are running him out of the slot and taking a different pass catcher off the field. The offense the Bills are running is predicated on using a FB/HB and/or the RB to diagnose coverage - get extra protection- and slide out to draw coverage away from the primary receivers. The #1 TEs in this league are all receivers and they basically play the identical role to Beasley and so you are not really replacing Knox - you are looking to replacing Beasley. He is your seam route runner, he is you flare control route runner, and he is the QB safety blanket. Of course the Bills want more consistency from Knox, but considering Knox, Kroft, Sweeney, and even Gilliam are all basic clones - that seems to be what they are looking for in a #1 TE. Blocking and a few routes with mismatches and leak outs around the goal line and as a safety valve is what you are going to mostly get. A few routes where they use his athletic ability to get a one on one to help clear out space - Josh just needs to take what they are giving. The only way I seen the Bills improving the TE position at this point is if a highly ranked 1st rounder falls so far as to be unavoidable. I do not see a trade or FA that is significantly better (due to money) and I think they will have some holes to fill in the first 3 rounds that keep TEs away. 3 1 1
mjd1001 Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: This just is not happening - in my opinion. I don’t think the Bills are looking for a legit #1 TE an certainly do not seem like they will have the Cap space to trade for #1. I agree 100%. In the cap world, you simply can't pay (long term) players who you would consider #1's at their position all over the board. You want a top tier TE? The top 4-5 guys are already making about $10 per year or more, and that is going to go up next year (as it always does). You have to pay Allen...and if you want to have Brown and Beasley (or guys LIKE them) along with Diggs, something has to give. Pay a 'top TE' and you are likely going to have to not pay one (or two) of those WR's and/or have to really, really get buy with a budget Defensive unit. If you end up not signing (re-signing) Brown or Beasley (or one of them gets cut) and you do not replace them with a comparable WR at the same pay rate, then sure, replace them with a top paid TE. But if you want to keep the Offense the same (3 quality veteran WRs) then you'll have to go on the budget side at TE.
without a drought Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 He is about due for a play that makes people second guess this line of thinking. 2
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: This just is not happening - in my opinion. I don’t think the Bills are looking for a legit #1 TE an certainly do not seem like they will have the Cap space to trade for #1. They are asking their TEs - be it Knox, Kroft, Smith, or Gilliam to play a half back blocking role. That does not work for guys like Kelce, Gesicki, Waller, Engram, etc. They aren’t blockers - they are glorified receivers and that role is picked up by Beasley for the Bills - who by the way has more receptions than all the TEs except Kelce and Waller and those 2 lead their teams in catches by quite a bit and I would rather have Diggs leading the team. People in this thread (not you at all) are crapping on Knox and yes he still has a long ways to go, but the expectations just make no sense. People want a TE like Gesicki, but then the Dolphins are running him out of the slot and taking a different pass catcher off the field. The offense the Bills are running is predicated on using a FB/HB and/or the RB to diagnose coverage - get extra protection- and slide out to draw coverage away from the primary receivers. The #1 TEs in this league are all receivers and they basically play the identical role to Beasley and so you are not really replacing Knox - you are looking to replacing Beasley. He is your seam route runner, he is you flare control route runner, and he is the QB safety blanket. Of course the Bills want more consistency from Knox, but considering Knox, Kroft, Sweeney, and even Gilliam are all basic clones - that seems to be what they are looking for in a #1 TE. Blocking and a few routes with mismatches and leak outs around the goal line and as a safety valve is what you are going to mostly get. A few routes where they use his athletic ability to get a one on one to help clear out space - Josh just needs to take what they are giving. The only way I seen the Bills improving the TE position at this point is if a highly ranked 1st rounder falls so far as to be unavoidable. I do not see a trade or FA that is significantly better (due to money) and I think they will have some holes to fill in the first 3 rounds that keep TEs away. Agree. The other thing to is with the WR group the Bills have, how much is the TE going to be targeted? Like you pointed out, Beasley is basically receiving many of those targets. I think the Bills are just as effective going with 4 WR sets, Diggs, Beasley, Davis, and Brown or even McKenzie while out and take the TE off the field. Other than having someone like Kelce or Kerse, can't imagine that 3 WR and a TE is going to worry the defense that much more. Knox is also good enough that he needs to be accounted for by the defense, they can't ignore him like they could with maybe Smith so he still serves a purpose even if he's more a decoy, the defense still needs to worry about him. It also appears that Smiths role in the offense is increasing as of late so think many here will be disappointed when they don't cut him this off=season. Can see them redoing his contract some maybe take $1/2 Mill or so off next years cap. A guy like that in his role doesn't worry me as much about extending as he's the type that barring some type of huge injury can play for a number more years, kind of has the longevity of an offensive lineman for the most part. On the other hand Kroft is a FA this off season so will be interesting to see what they do there. Do they feel Sweeney or Gilliam is ready to replace him or will they look elsewhere for a mid level FA replacement, maybe again and Olsen type. Can't see them drafting one mid round as they need someone to be able to step in this coming year if needed and not likelty a rookie would be any better than Sweeney. Or do they resign Kroft for a lower $$ amount, though can't imagine he'd be too keen on that idea only to be inactive come Sunday.
NewEra Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: This just is not happening - in my opinion. I don’t think the Bills are looking for a legit #1 TE an certainly do not seem like they will have the Cap space to trade for #1. They are asking their TEs - be it Knox, Kroft, Smith, or Gilliam to play a half back blocking role. That does not work for guys like Kelce, Gesicki, Waller, Engram, etc. They aren’t blockers - they are glorified receivers and that role is picked up by Beasley for the Bills - who by the way has more receptions than all the TEs except Kelce and Waller and those 2 lead their teams in catches by quite a bit and I would rather have Diggs leading the team. People in this thread (not you at all) are crapping on Knox and yes he still has a long ways to go, but the expectations just make no sense. People want a TE like Gesicki, but then the Dolphins are running him out of the slot and taking a different pass catcher off the field. The offense the Bills are running is predicated on using a FB/HB and/or the RB to diagnose coverage - get extra protection- and slide out to draw coverage away from the primary receivers. The #1 TEs in this league are all receivers and they basically play the identical role to Beasley and so you are not really replacing Knox - you are looking to replacing Beasley. He is your seam route runner, he is you flare control route runner, and he is the QB safety blanket. Of course the Bills want more consistency from Knox, but considering Knox, Kroft, Sweeney, and even Gilliam are all basic clones - that seems to be what they are looking for in a #1 TE. Blocking and a few routes with mismatches and leak outs around the goal line and as a safety valve is what you are going to mostly get. A few routes where they use his athletic ability to get a one on one to help clear out space - Josh just needs to take what they are giving. The only way I seen the Bills improving the TE position at this point is if a highly ranked 1st rounder falls so far as to be unavoidable. I do not see a trade or FA that is significantly better (due to money) and I think they will have some holes to fill in the first 3 rounds that keep TEs away. Great post. agree 💯 If we do attempt to upgrade the TE position, I believe it will be in the draft. Little to no chance that we sign a FA TE for more the 2-3 mill a year. I think we’ll be going into next season with Knox, (resign Lee Smith), Sweeney, Gilliam + a draft pick or cheap FA. 1
Rochesterfan Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: Agree. The other thing to is with the WR group the Bills have, how much is the TE going to be targeted? Like you pointed out, Beasley is basically receiving many of those targets. I think the Bills are just as effective going with 4 WR sets, Diggs, Beasley, Davis, and Brown or even McKenzie while out and take the TE off the field. Other than having someone like Kelce or Kerse, can't imagine that 3 WR and a TE is going to worry the defense that much more. Knox is also good enough that he needs to be accounted for by the defense, they can't ignore him like they could with maybe Smith so he still serves a purpose even if he's more a decoy, the defense still needs to worry about him. It also appears that Smiths role in the offense is increasing as of late so think many here will be disappointed when they don't cut him this off=season. Can see them redoing his contract some maybe take $1/2 Mill or so off next years cap. A guy like that in his role doesn't worry me as much about extending as he's the type that barring some type of huge injury can play for a number more years, kind of has the longevity of an offensive lineman for the most part. On the other hand Kroft is a FA this off season so will be interesting to see what they do there. Do they feel Sweeney or Gilliam is ready to replace him or will they look elsewhere for a mid level FA replacement, maybe again and Olsen type. Can't see them drafting one mid round as they need someone to be able to step in this coming year if needed and not likelty a rookie would be any better than Sweeney. Or do they resign Kroft for a lower $$ amount, though can't imagine he'd be too keen on that idea only to be inactive come Sunday. Yep - I believe (we will have to see how everything plays out) Kroft is totally replaced by Sweeney and the TE group next year looks very similar to this year. I could see them working with Lee Smith to step away, but even that I think gets replaced by Becker from the PS over the long term. I just do not see the fit or the need for a receiving TE on the roster.
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