Dawson Knox needs to go....now.

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

May or may not happen. Either way, he sucks....

 

His fumbles are a concern, but give him enough targets and he can at least be as productive as Thomas.

[TheFunPolice]

Wasn't Knox seen as a raw prospect that would need time to develop?

 

He has missed a handful of games this season due to COVID and injury, but he has a couple of TD catches and a 10 yard average per catch. 

 

Sure, you would like to see more productivity, but when you have Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and even Davis really coming on strong, it's not surprising he is a bit down on the list of targets for Allen. 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

21 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Wasn't Knox seen as a raw prospect that would need time to develop?

 

He has missed a handful of games this season due to COVID and injury, but he has a couple of TD catches and a 10 yard average per catch. 

 

Sure, you would like to see more productivity, but when you have Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and even Davis really coming on strong, it's not surprising he is a bit down on the list of targets for Allen. 

 

 

Yes.

 

Dawson Knox is a traits-based prospect who could be developed into a nice up-the-seam target and red-zone threat. While he's not as athletic as the other top tight ends in the class, he's fast enough to be a problem for defenses and has developmental upside.

 

Dawson Knox is a challenging study because he has all of the needed tools to be a great TE prospect, but his conditions at the college level were as unenviable as you'll find. Knox was a non-priority in the passing game and runs a pretty vanilla set of routes in addition to being a high variance blocker in both pass game and run game alike. Knox will require patience, he isn't a player that will step into a contributing role immediately in the NFL.

 

A high school quarterback, Knox transitioned to tight end at Ole Miss but never became a prominent component of the passing game. With that said, there have been exciting flashes as a receiver although they are few and far between. There is considerable work needed as a route runner for Knox to find success catching the football at the next level, not to mention so inconsistency with his hands to clean up. As a blocker, Knox is more developed and has upside both on the move and in-line. Knox is a project, but he can be a worthy one to invest in. He has the ceiling of a quality TE2 and potential starter in time but patience is required.

All of the traits are there to be a no. 1 tight end for a team in the NFL, but the only area Knox really improved in this past season was blocking, and his skill set as a receiver still needs considerable work. Knox's landing spot is critical to his pro outlook as he has only spent two seasons at the tight end position, and in the pre-draft timeframe, trust will be a big part of the evaluation. A la George Kittle, Knox has the tangible and intangible traits you take a risk on developing in the 40-70 range of the draft despite his lack of usage as a receiver in college.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I mean, I can point out instances where Dawson has made mistakes and Josh goes right back to him the next play, next drive, later in the game. Miami earlier this season, Arizona, just recently against Pittsburgh. It’s probably a mix of everything you said above... I’d rather throw to Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis before I look to hit Knox.

 

Of course you would, on that last.  But kind of missing the point I was getting at, perhaps? 

 

In the football chess match, opposing defenses will always clamp down on the stuff you want more, and leave you the stuff they perceive you as unable, unwilling, or disinterested in taking, right?  That's why we have sometimes seen Diggs and Beasley draped like they're Christmas trees and DBs are tinsel, Davis well covered, while Knox and Singletary enjoy a relatively spacious solitude.  So how does that change?  Obviously, if Brown is back in the lineup and we're running a 1-0 set, the defense has a tinsel shortage.  Without Brown?  If we throw to Knox and Singletary and they manage to get 5-10 yds per toss, the defense may decide to distribute the tinsel a bit differently.  (I know you know this, just context).

 

Those "bunnies" - the short throws over the middle - have been a known problem to Josh since forever.  He missed them at Wyoming. He missed them at his pro day.  He missed them his first year in Buffalo, both in practice footage and games.  He improved last year, but still missed them in games sometimes, notably early on when perhaps he was "tight" or pressured. 

 

Early this season, when he took those shots, he was deadly.  Then for a period of time, they were bad again - after the LV injury I think.  And missing those throws over the middle high or wide is potentially a Very Bad Day, right?  That's what the pick off Roberts was, a throw that should have hit him in the breadbasket but was slightly behind and high.  Similar high miss to Beas early in the Pitts game but Beas had sense enough not to risk deflecting it for a pick.

 

On the other hand, when they were on-target or at least readily catchable...those "bunnies" were the very species of throw Knox had most trouble with.  Could hit him right in the hands at waist level and "whoopsie!" 😬

 

So sure - when Josh is "on tonight, you know my hips don't lie" like he was in Arizona and Beasley is 11 of 13, Diggs is 10 of 10 like the 'Zona game or Beas 9 of 11 and Diggs 10 of 10 like SF, we'd all rather see him throw to Beasley or Diggs.  But when he's under pressure like Pitts or at times San Diego and Beasley is 5 of 10, Diggs 10 of 14, maybe a few throws should go elsewhere.  And that's when that QB-TE hookup needs to work - whatever is amiss with it.

 

Sometimes I feel Knox is in the wrong place for Josh.  I wish someone who knows more routes would look at this - I'm looking at geometry.  I want Knox positioned where if Josh misses him, it "does no harm" and where there's a clear throwing lane.  I don't know what's up there when I don't see that.

 

And I don't know what's up with Kroft not getting more looks - I'm still working on my "Beluga Whale Hunt" to see what Kroft's doing too.

 

Quote

But... in terms of actually measuring the development of a player, in-game targets is an absolutely silly way of showing a player’s progress. The whole Logan Thomas/Knox comparison is evidence of that. 

 

I'm never big on comparisons to former players. 

 

To be clear, I don't want Knox to go.  Foolishness.  He's on a rookie deal, why wouldn't we keep him and see if he develops?   But I wanted the Bills to take a shot at an upgrade last year (more than Greg Olsen) and I still want that, because I think that big tough outlet target over the middle is a missing piece to our game and Beasley, who gets used that way at times even though he's a small tough target, doesn't quite fill the need.  Lee Smith isn't it, and Kroft doesn't seem to be either. 

 

But part of me wonders if the problem isn't the players at that position, it's the decision process in the guy making the throws.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes.

 

Dawson Knox is a traits-based prospect who could be developed into a nice up-the-seam target and red-zone threat. While he's not as athletic as the other top tight ends in the class, he's fast enough to be a problem for defenses and has developmental upside.

 

Dawson Knox is a challenging study because he has all of the needed tools to be a great TE prospect, but his conditions at the college level were as unenviable as you'll find. Knox was a non-priority in the passing game and runs a pretty vanilla set of routes in addition to being a high variance blocker in both pass game and run game alike. Knox will require patience, he isn't a player that will step into a contributing role immediately in the NFL.

 

A high school quarterback, Knox transitioned to tight end at Ole Miss but never became a prominent component of the passing game. With that said, there have been exciting flashes as a receiver although they are few and far between. There is considerable work needed as a route runner for Knox to find success catching the football at the next level, not to mention so inconsistency with his hands to clean up. As a blocker, Knox is more developed and has upside both on the move and in-line. Knox is a project, but he can be a worthy one to invest in. He has the ceiling of a quality TE2 and potential starter in time but patience is required.

All of the traits are there to be a no. 1 tight end for a team in the NFL, but the only area Knox really improved in this past season was blocking, and his skill set as a receiver still needs considerable work. Knox's landing spot is critical to his pro outlook as he has only spent two seasons at the tight end position, and in the pre-draft timeframe, trust will be a big part of the evaluation. A la George Kittle, Knox has the tangible and intangible traits you take a risk on developing in the 40-70 range of the draft despite his lack of usage as a receiver in college.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting that the comparison is kittle there at the end (simply as an athletic upside player comparison, with little production).  And Kittle didn't have Metcalf and AJ brown at WR either.  

[Mr. WEO]

52 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes, I corrected myself on Thomas already. 
 

So what you’re explaining to me is that in the 439 snaps Logan Thomas took in his two years in Buffalo, you watched all of them closely enough to determine at the end of 2017 and 2018 that he was going to be a productive tight end in the National Football League? If you have evidence of this, I’ll eat crow. Otherwise you’re capitalizing on him having a productive season.
 

That isn’t even really a great determination of if he’s a good player or not. In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team. Now I understand Washington is leading their division (6-7) but they don’t actually fit that category. Do you really think Thomas is starting on a serious contender? 

This wasn’t an obvious error. The guy played TE in the organization for 3 years and didn’t show enough on two anemic offenses to warrant being brought back. Thomas’ production is a convenient intersection of lack of competition at his position, lack of weapons in Washington and being on a below average team. He’s the 3rd highest targeted player on the Redskins roster behind McLaurin and McKissic. He’s benefiting from getting ~20% of the target share in Washington. He’s not even that great now, 
 

 

 

And then you repeated the error by saying he played 2 years in Detroit....and, now,  in the (Buffalo) "organization"  for "3 years".  You're all over the place.

 

 

 

Anyway...." In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team" makes absolutely no sense. Bad teams want good players, don't they?  So they won't be as bad anymore? They don't "scout" players?  Players are only "graded" in regard to whether they would be a consistent starter on a "serious contender"? lol, OK.

 

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Of course you would, on that last.  But kind of missing the point I was getting at, perhaps? 

 

In the football chess match, opposing defenses will always clamp down on the stuff you want more, and leave you the stuff they perceive you as unable, unwilling, or disinterested in taking, right?  That's why we have sometimes seen Diggs and Beasley draped like they're Christmas trees and DBs are tinsel, Davis well covered, while Knox and Singletary enjoy a relatively spacious solitude.  So how does that change?  Obviously, if Brown is back in the lineup and we're running a 1-0 set, the defense has a tinsel shortage.  Without Brown?  If we throw to Knox and Singletary and they manage to get 5-10 yds per toss, the defense may decide to distribute the tinsel a bit differently.  (I know you know this, just context).

 

Those "bunnies" - the short throws over the middle - have been a known problem to Josh since forever.  He missed them at Wyoming. He missed them at his pro day.  He missed them his first year in Buffalo, both in practice footage and games.  He improved last year, but still missed them in games sometimes, notably early on when perhaps he was "tight" or pressured. 

 

Early this season, when he took those shots, he was deadly.  Then for a period of time, they were bad again - after the LV injury I think.  And missing those throws over the middle high or wide is potentially a Very Bad Day, right?  That's what the pick off Roberts was, a throw that should have hit him in the breadbasket but was slightly behind and high.  Similar high miss to Beas early in the Pitts game but Beas had sense enough not to risk deflecting it for a pick.

 

On the other hand, when they were on-target or at least readily catchable...those "bunnies" were the very species of throw Knox had most trouble with.  Could hit him right in the hands at waist level and "whoopsie!" 😬

 

So sure - when Josh is "on tonight, you know my hips don't lie" like he was in Arizona and Beasley is 11 of 13, Diggs is 10 of 10 like the 'Zona game or Beas 9 of 11 and Diggs 10 of 10 like SF, we'd all rather see him throw to Beasley or Diggs.  But when he's under pressure like Pitts or at times San Diego and Beasley is 5 of 10, Diggs 10 of 14, maybe a few throws should go elsewhere.  And that's when that QB-TE hookup needs to work - whatever is amiss with it.

 

Sometimes I feel Knox is in the wrong place for Josh.  I wish someone who knows more routes would look at this - I'm looking at geometry.  I want Knox positioned where if Josh misses him, it "does no harm" and where there's a clear throwing lane.  I don't know what's up there when I don't see that.

 

 

I'm never big on comparisons to former players. 

 

 

 

Yeah, i felt like Pitt was a game you'd think he'd have done more.  Getting behind the backers in a zone blitz look.  I'm not sure if they just don't have that trust there yet - but it seems like daboll has him heading out to the boundaries more often.

[Mat68]

I think he has average starter upside.  His lack of college success put him behind.  I would like Buffalo to target Pitts or Faruemuth or Jordan in rd 1.  Now as a wing/hback i think Knox would be dangerous.  

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

And then you repeated the error by saying he played 2 years in Detroit....and, now,  in the (Buffalo) "organization"  for "3 years".  You're all over the place.

 

 

 

Anyway...." In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team" makes absolutely no sense. Bad teams want good players, don't they?  So they won't be as bad anymore? They don't "scout" players?  Players are only "graded" in regard to whether they would be a consistent starter on a "serious contender"? lol, OK.

 

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

[Ya Digg?]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

Sorry I know that I'm nitpicking, but are you calling Kelce nothing more than a security blanket for Mahomes?  The guy who leads the entire league in receiving yards (as a tight end no less) is much more than a security blanket....should probably think of a different tight end than Kelce if you're looking for just a security blanket.  If he's not the top tight end in the league, he's a very close second to Kittle

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

But part of me wonders if the problem isn't the players at that position, it's the decision process in the guy making the throws.

I’m not disregarding the earlier parts of your posts they’re just so well written, I don’t really much to say other than great job.

 

I mentioned it late in my previous post... Josh just doesn’t target his tight ends a lot. He’s comfortable going to his WR. I’m honestly curious how many targets his TE get in the RZ because it feels like that’s where he goes after them the most.  
 

Could it also be that our offense isn’t set up to feed the ball to a TE? I know we often like to link Daboll to NE a little bit but their TE usage didn’t really ramp up until around 2006 with Ben Watson. Prior to that it was WR heavy with TE getting 23, 40 and 63 targets in the years prior. Obviously we remember the Gronk and Hernandez offenses the most, but TE wasn’t always a major emphasis there either. Idk... now I’m just blabbering with no real direction.

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

I think Thomas' production in Buffalo would be similar to Knox.  I dont think you could excpect no more than 4-5 targets a game.  I think vs Pitts Thomas was around 12. 

 

An earlier poster had a draft breakdown of Knox.  Basically, he had the upside of an average starter on a playoff team.  That raised the question dont bad teams want good players etc.  The differance in target share is why.  The football team has a lack of offensive talent.  Thomas is getting usage he would not get elsewhere.  Knox is 22 or 23?  Thomas is 30?  Who do you want going forward?

[Mr. WEO]

47 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

he was on the PS squad for a month in 2016,  so stop with that 3 season stuff!

 

But no,  I’ll again go record that I am not agreeing with you in any of the above so far

[Solomon Grundy]

48 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Sorry I know that I'm nitpicking, but are you calling Kelce nothing more than a security blanket for Mahomes?  The guy who leads the entire league in receiving yards (as a tight end no less) is much more than a security blanket....should probably think of a different tight end than Kelce if you're looking for just a security blanket.  If he's not the top tight end in the league, he's a very close second to Kittle

He really is Mahomes security blanket. Just look at some of the plays from the Dolphins game. When nothing was there, while scrambling, Mahomes threw balls towards Kelce and he made the plays against his defenders. Those plays kept drives going. Josh tried that a couple of times with Knox in the Steelers game and no bueno. Not saying Kelce is not a weapon, but definitely a security blanket 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

This is literally agreeing with me in my entire premise which you laughed at and tried to pick apart... 
 

Now it’s up to you to decipher if he’s actually good or benefiting from a lacking receiving corps...

 

I will use another example... was Robert Foster good or did he benefit from a lacking receiving corps?

 

The Robert Foster #1 receiver argument was the same thing... it was dumb then and it’s dumb now. He was lucky that there was literally nobody else to throw to and the second actual upgrades arrived in the form of John Brown and Cole Beasley he went nearly unused and was rendered useless upon the arrival of Diggs and Davis. Perfect example of a player on a bad team putting up decent numbers solely because the team is bad, not because they’re a NFL starting caliber player. It’s the same concept. 

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he was on the PS squad for a month in 2016,  so stop with that 3 season stuff!

 

But no,  I’ll again go record that I am not agreeing with you in any of the above so far

Got it. Only a month in 2016... so it’s just 2 seasons. 

[Solomon Grundy]

I’d love to see Josh with a TE like Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki or even Mark Andrews.

[Mat68]

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

[Solomon Grundy]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

It’s a deep TE draft overall. I’ve been watching some replays of Dawson Knox and it seems to me like he has trouble tracking the football in the air. Some of the angles he takes towards the ball in flight is baffling 

[Mat68]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

It’s a deep TE draft overall. I’ve been watching some replays of Dawson Knox and it seems to me like he has trouble tracking the football in the air. Some of the angles he takes towards the ball in flight is baffling 

Knox not having usage in college or high school makes that a skill he may never have.  Not many Te's though have it.  I feel the guys I listed are better in that area but are not elite.  

[Solomon Grundy]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

I like Charlie Kolar from Iowa State and Kenny Yeboah from Ole Miss around rd 3