Dawson Knox needs to go....now.

[JGMcD2]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

No.  Knox can't catch.  Thomas is a better QB converted TE than Knox is a TE.

 

Thomas didn't get much if any "development at TE" in Buffalo.  Nothing like what Knox is getting.  Washington put out there a guy with 54 targets in the previous 3 years---and he's making the most of the opportunity.  Knox got that much opportunity as a rookie.  Now he's certainly not getting better with another year of development. They are using him for quick dump offs at this point. His yards before catch went from 8.7 to 1.9.

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m excited about his upside. I like the edge he brings. His college experience was almost nil. Josh took some time and now people seem happy. Why can’t Knox get the same benefit of the doubt? They have the inexperience but edginess in common. 

 

Patience is a virtue. 

 

I doubt he'll ever be Kelce or Kittle... and thats OK.  I'm not of the opinion that a TE is turning this offense from top 10 to top 3.  To get there would mean improvements on the line IMO.  They've played better with feliciano in, but the run blocking has been a problem all year and it makes the team more one dimensional.  

 

They also need to clean up fumbles as a whole - Knox has a big 2.  But 15 total?  Plus 9 int's?  That's a lot of possessions lost.  

 

I'd say with the question marks around Sweeney, and with Kroft likely gone TE should be a mid round draft priority.  Maybe 1 of the 2 5ths.  

[Doc]

Just now, dneveu said:

I doubt he'll ever be Kelce or Kittle... and thats OK.  I'm not of the opinion that a TE is turning this offense from top 10 to top 3.  To get there would mean improvements on the line IMO.  They've played better with feliciano in, but the run blocking has been a problem all year and it makes the team more one dimensional.  

 

They also need to clean up fumbles as a whole - Knox has a big 2.  But 15 total?  Plus 9 int's?  That's a lot of possessions lost.  

 

I'd say with the question marks around Sweeney, and with Kroft likely gone TE should be a mid round draft priority.  Maybe 1 of the 2 5ths.  

 

Few players are.  There are maybe 1-2 in the league in any given year.  Previously it was Gonzalez.  Then Gates.  Then Goonk.  Now Kelce and Kittle, with Waller throwing his name in the ring.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

Considering he started playing TE in 2016 the year we signed him off the Lions practice squad and then couldn’t get reps over the dearth of offensive talent we had in 2017-2018... I’m going to go with “Highly Unlikely for $2000, Alex” 

 

But what IS highly likely, is that Mr. WEO knows more about where Logan Thomas was in his development process after two years at the age of 28 as a converted Tight End more so than the coaches who watched him every day during that time period 🥴

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Few players are.  There are maybe 1-2 in the league in any given year.  Previously it was Gonzalez.  Then Gates.  Then Goonk.  Now Kelce and Kittle, with Waller throwing his name in the ring.

 

Right.  Kittle is a really solid blocker so for their PA/run game he's super valuable.  Also a load to tackle.  Kelce is insanely good, just such a matchup nightmare in the RZ and so much faster than he looks.  Waller's also a freak athlete.  

 

Also - none of those guys were drafted in the first round.  

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

 

 

Yes.  Practice is important of course.  And the Bills are working with Knox after his one offseason of practice.  They did as much with Thomas too---and then they dumped him.

 

And there is only one starting QB, so the Josh comparison isn't a strong one--other than to prove that he would not be where he is today if he was relegated to "learning from the sidelines" his rookie year, as many here advocated.  All the "practice" in the world would not substitute for gameplay.

 

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

 

 

I said the opposite.  Reposted and highlighted on this page, even.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this.  I've stayed out of this thread, although I tend to agree with the OP.  

 

If you think about it, maybe more so than any single player on the team, disappoints you on a regular basis.   He makes some really solid plays, but he fails to make plays much more often than he should.  

 

What you describe is exactly on the money - he's a really good athlete in some ways, but he doesn't have quality athletic skills finding and catching the ball.   It was clear last year, and I thought that it may have been just rookie inexperience.  We're past that now, and he still is badly inconsistent.  

 

It's always unfair to make comparisons with the best, but the best exhibit the kind of skills that you want.  Kelce and Gronk find the ball - they know it's combining and they find it, and when it gets to them, they catch it.  In Knox's case, I think it's mostly about finding it.  I think he looks for the ball late.   I think he's running so fast, and working so hard, that the added task of turning and finding the ball is physically too much for him.  I think a lot of this is he doesn't really understand the playbook.  A guy like Kelce, without looking, knows when the ball is going to come to him, knows when it will arrive, and therefore knows when to turn and look for it.  When Knox fails to catch the ball, it seems like he's surprised that the ball is there.  He shouldn't be surprised.  

 

His lack of awareness also evident in his fumble.   

 

He just seems like a kid who's really excited to be where he is and isn't really focused - in the way that most guys on the team are focused - on doing his job.   Kroft, who has less physical talent, has the focus.  

 

Part of his lack of focus may be due to lack of experience.  In college he was rarely asked to touch the ball.  Was reading an article the other days that stated Knox played in a college offense that didn't use the TE so he's very new to being asked to handle the ball.  TE is also one of the toughest positions to learn in the NFL too.  Couple these two things together plus throw in a couple injuries not surprising he is still struggling as he's also still learning.

 

Kroft is a FA this off season so will be interesting to see what they do there, if they bring him back, (and would he even want to come back to be inactive most games) it tells me they are still committed to Knox as the #1 TE another year.  Or do they sign another FA TE, there's a couple of decent ones that will be available.  Drafting one isn't the answer IMO as the team is ready to win now and doubt a rookie TE is going to step in and contribute that well regardless.  If there is a really good one ready to play form day 1, likely he'll be long gone by the time the Bills pick.

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Considering he started playing TE in 2016 the year we signed him off the Lions practice squad and then couldn’t get reps over the dearth of offensive talent we had in 2017-2018... I’m going to go with “Highly Unlikely for $2000, Alex” 

 

But what IS highly likely, is that Mr. WEO knows more about where Logan Thomas was in his development process after two years at the age of 28 as a converted Tight End more so than the coaches who watched him every day during that time period 🥴

 

 

No he didn't.  He was a preseason/backup QB/PS for the Giants in 2016.   He was cut in November.  He then called himself a TE and the Lions signed him to their PS.  2 days later the Bills signed him to the PS.  He played no TE in 2016.

 

Also, it hardly needs to be mentioned that coaching staffs err often.  

[JGMcD2]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Yes.  Practice is important of course.  And the Bills are working with Knox after his one offseason of practice.  They did as much with Thomas too---and then they dumped him.

 

And there is only one starting QB, so the Josh comparison isn't a strong one--other than to prove that he would not be where he is today if he was relegated to "learning from the sidelines" his rookie year, as many here advocated.  All the "practice" in the world would not substitute for gameplay.

 

 

 

I said the opposite.  Reposted and highlighted on this page, even.  

Thomas was a 26 year old converted tight end they signed off of a practice squad and Knox was a 3rd round pick a year ago. The level of experience, age, investment all factor in to that. It’s not quite apples to apples. 
 

Two teams spent two years with Logan Thomas as a TE (BUF & DET) and neither felt it necessary to keep him. 
 

I would guess he’s settled into the position a bit more by now and the lack of receiving threats in WSH have given him more opportunities. Knox is like the 6-7th option right now in Buffalo. 
 

If anything your point (although flawed) about giving up on Thomas too soon is reason to continue to stick with Knox and not give up on him too soon. 

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

No he didn't.  He was a preseason/backup QB/PS for the Giants in 2016.   He was cut in November.  He then called himself a TE and the Lions signed him to their PS.  2 days later the Bills signed him to the PS.  He played no TE in 2016.

 

Also, it hardly needs to be mentioned that coaching staffs err often.  

Right, coaching staffs screw up often while being around these players 24/7 and studying them non-stop. 
 

Which makes it much more likely a guy who’s never seen Logan Thomas practice, has watched him in person less than, let’s say 5 times and has probably seen him less than 10 times knows more than a coaching staff and front office. 
 

EDIT: I acknowledge my error in Thomas’ history at the position with Detroit in 2016. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[ganesh]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I'd probably say mediocre blocker and skiddish receiver.

 

His blocking is much worse than his receiving.  We usually just notice the drops more than the blocks.

I think he blocked Watt along with WIlliams just fine on Sunday night

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Of all fanbases, we should be the most understanding of the need for a player to develop.

 

Instead, we get "bag of donuts" threads which look completely foolish within 3 weeks, and this one, which personally I feel will look foolish by 2021.

 

No one wants to wait. All gas, no brakes.

[ghostwriter]

The problem with TEs is that they very rarely make it to 1,000 yards receiving or even 75 catches.. Surely it happens, but not a lot.. From a sheer production POV, I think WRs offer more production, which is why TEs are rarely taken in the first round.. 1,000 yards for a TE is elite, a 1,000 yards for a WR is decent.. Not saying that we couldn’t benefit from a great TE.. but I don’t think you necessarily need to go there in the first round.. If it’s really urgent I’d wait until RD2.. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

You’re equating development to targets... 

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thomas was a 26 year old converted tight end they signed off of a practice squad and Knox was a 3rd round pick a year ago. The level of experience, age, investment all factor in to that. It’s not quite apples to apples. 
 

Two teams spent two years with Logan Thomas as a TE (BUF & DET) and neither felt it necessary to keep him. 
 

I would guess he’s settled into the position a bit more by now and the lack of receiving threats in WSH have given him more opportunities. Knox is like the 6-7th option right now in Buffalo. 
 

If anything your point (although flawed) about giving up on Thomas too soon is reason to continue to stick with Knox and not give up on him too soon. 

Right, coaching staffs screw up often while being around these players 24/7 and studying them non-stop. 
 

Which makes it much more likely a guy who’s never seen Logan Thomas practice, has watched him in person less than, let’s say 5 times and has probably seen him less than 10 times knows more than a coaching staff and front office. 
 

EDIT: I acknowledge my error in Thomas’ history at the position with Detroit in 2016. 

 

Detroit spent 1 year with Thomas, not 2.

 

There's a huge difference between claiming one knows more than the coaching staff about football.....and pointing out obvious errors based on what they saw and knew about a player.   A notorious recent example: McD spent endless hours and a season and 2 off seasons and a preseason before he determined that Nate Peterman "won" the QB competition with rookie Allen.  That was a predictable error and McD realized this halfway through the first game of the season.  Fans can point out obvious errors just fine.

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

[ghostwriter]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

As far as a security blanket is concerned, Cole Beasley is just that. I think your RBs should be used as such as well.. but no doubt we need a TE... just not in the 1st round..

[JGMcD2]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Detroit spent 1 year with Thomas, not 2.

 

There's a huge difference between claiming one knows more than the coaching staff about football.....and pointing out obvious errors based on what they saw and knew about a player.   A notorious recent example: McD spent endless hours and a season and 2 off seasons and a preseason before he determined that Nate Peterman "won" the QB competition with rookie Allen.  That was a predictable error and McD realized this halfway through the first game of the season.  Fans can point out obvious errors just fine.

Yes, I corrected myself on Thomas already. 
 

So what you’re explaining to me is that in the 439 snaps Logan Thomas took in his two years in Buffalo, you watched all of them closely enough to determine at the end of 2017 and 2018 that he was going to be a productive tight end in the National Football League? If you have evidence of this, I’ll eat crow. Otherwise you’re capitalizing on him having a productive season.
 

That isn’t even really a great determination of if he’s a good player or not. In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team. Now I understand Washington is leading their division (6-7) but they don’t actually fit that category. Do you really think Thomas is starting on a serious contender? 

This wasn’t an obvious error. The guy played TE in the organization for 3 years and didn’t show enough on two anemic offenses to warrant being brought back. Thomas’ production is a convenient intersection of lack of competition at his position, lack of weapons in Washington and being on a below average team. He’s the 3rd highest targeted player on the Redskins roster behind McLaurin and McKissic. He’s benefiting from getting ~20% of the target share in Washington. He’s not even that great now, 
 

 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

I mean, I can point out instances where Dawson has made mistakes and Josh goes right back to him the next play, next drive, later in the game. Miami earlier this season, Arizona, just recently against Pittsburgh. It’s probably a mix of everything you said above... I’d rather throw to Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis before I look to hit Knox. 
 

But... in terms of actually measuring the development of a player, in-game targets is an absolutely silly way of showing a player’s progress. The whole Logan Thomas/Knox comparison is evidence of that. 
 

“Oh Knox doesn’t have a lot of targets but look at Thomas, he does. He’s obviously developed. Should have kept him.” 
 

Well, Thomas is one of the primary targets in DC because they lack offensive talent. I think we’d all be pretty pissed if Dawson Knox was getting more targets than Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Davis. Josh just doesn’t use tight ends because right now he has 4 better options... it’s not like he was peppering Kroft when he was active either. 

[TheFunPolice]

I think Knox is just a young player who needs to continue to develop. 

 

He has the physical tools to be good. I tend to not pay too much attention to dropped passes. These are NFL pass catchers. Guys go through patches of drops sometimes. Knox will get that figured out. 

 

Now, that said, I would get another TE in the draft or free agency to get another guy in the system. I also like Lee Smith as the blocker/attitude guy. 

 

Not everyone is Diggs or Brown or Beasley. We are VERY lucky to have all 3. When those guys drop a pass (which seems like never) it sticks out because it's so unusual. You almost are OK with it, because it means that was their drop for the next 6 games. But as we should know, that's not necessarily the norm in the NFL. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by TheFunPolice