Dawson Knox needs to go....now.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I'm not going to go back and search the threads from 2017 and 2018 but I remember you trashing him.  It's what you do and I doubt anyone would disagree with that statement.  

 

I don't know why Thomas' snaps dropped-off at the end of 2017 (I guess you could call it his "rookie" year...as an NFL TE, but it was his 4th in the NFL).  But since he didn't play the final 2 games of the season, I'll bet injury.  But while you'll no doubt want to get hung-up on the exact numbers, the fact is he got a lot more playing time than "nothing," especially considering he was a converted college QB getting his first action as a TE in the NFL, and those rarely ever work. 

 

And yes, there was a dearth of talent on that Bills team.  I don't know what  point you think you're trying to make there other than it took years for him to get up to speed.

 

And nice try but I never said Knox would be Kelce.  Few TEs in NFL history have been like him.  What I am saying it that it's all about targets.  I told you this after the Bills traded for Diggs and you were trying to claim he wasn't a top-10 WR.   

 

 

You have a habit of basing your claims on numerical extrapolation so I was carrying your ridiculous math to its illogical conclusion.  But I do trash the bums and miscreants.

 

Anyway, I provided you with my extemporaneous comments on Thomas already.

 

You claimed that Thomas is only getting touches in Washington because of the dearth of talent.  The obvious (counter)point I made is that There was also a dearth of talent his rookie year in Buffalo----yet no such touches, let alone "about 33%".  I only get "hung-up on the numbers" when I'm correcting your inaccurate figures.

 

It's hard to "get up to speed" when you are relegated to 5% or fewer snaps.

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

You have a habit of basing your claims on numerical extrapolation so I was carrying your ridiculous math to its illogical conclusion.  But I do trash the bums and miscreants.

 

Anyway, I provided you with my extemporaneous comments on Thomas already.

 

You claimed that Thomas is only getting touches in Washington because of the dearth of talent.  The obvious (counter)point I made is that There was also a dearth of talent his rookie year in Buffalo----yet no such touches, let alone "about 33%".  I only get "hung-up on the numbers" when I'm correcting your inaccurate figures.

 

It's hard to "get up to speed" when you are relegated to 5% or fewer snaps.

 

It's "illogical" to say that if you increase a player's targets...his production should increase?  Really?  Then you must be absolutely dumbfounded over Diggs having a career year and establishing himself as a top-3 WR.  And the only thing "ridiculous" is mentioning Kelce, because I never even tried to compare Knox to him.  He's a rare talent.

 

Yeah I already addressed the situation in 2017.  Again, it was the matter of a college QB who was drafted in 2014, who finally decided to make a position switch late in 2016, who took time to develop.  If that's all you got...

Edited December 16, 2020 by Doc

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, colin said:

knox is a stud athlete and everyone seems to love him, pretty sure he is allen's roommate and that's not a small thing.

 

he is just athletic and talented enough to get open and not quite catch the ball.  it's not like a case of dropsies or whatever, he is simply not a good pass catcher.  blocking too, if he gets his mits on someone he can do some work, but he is fooled and out of position plenty.

 

if we have a good post season run and he contributes, i think they give him plenty more opportunity next season to prove what he's got.  if not, they bring someone in and i bet he can't compete.

I agree with this.  I've stayed out of this thread, although I tend to agree with the OP.  

 

If you think about it, maybe more so than any single player on the team, disappoints you on a regular basis.   He makes some really solid plays, but he fails to make plays much more often than he should.  

 

What you describe is exactly on the money - he's a really good athlete in some ways, but he doesn't have quality athletic skills finding and catching the ball.   It was clear last year, and I thought that it may have been just rookie inexperience.  We're past that now, and he still is badly inconsistent.  

 

It's always unfair to make comparisons with the best, but the best exhibit the kind of skills that you want.  Kelce and Gronk find the ball - they know it's combining and they find it, and when it gets to them, they catch it.  In Knox's case, I think it's mostly about finding it.  I think he looks for the ball late.   I think he's running so fast, and working so hard, that the added task of turning and finding the ball is physically too much for him.  I think a lot of this is he doesn't really understand the playbook.  A guy like Kelce, without looking, knows when the ball is going to come to him, knows when it will arrive, and therefore knows when to turn and look for it.  When Knox fails to catch the ball, it seems like he's surprised that the ball is there.  He shouldn't be surprised.  

 

His lack of awareness also evident in his fumble.   

 

He just seems like a kid who's really excited to be where he is and isn't really focused - in the way that most guys on the team are focused - on doing his job.   Kroft, who has less physical talent, has the focus.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I get the feeling that Knox will make a decent improvement next year and keep getting better. He has the body type and athletic ability to improve as a blocker and become a good TE. 

[Rocket94]

10 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

Careful what you say here....the Knoxies will find you and be mean to you!!!  🤣

Yeah! I am sure! The more that I watch the Bills, the more I see a need for an impact tight end. What a difference it would make...the Bills offense would be almost unstoppable when on full cylinder!

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

It's "illogical" to say that if you increase a player's targets...his production should increase?  Really?  Then you must be absolutely dumbfounded over Diggs having a career year and establishing himself as a top-3 WR.  And the only thing "ridiculous" is mentioning Kelce, because I never even tried to compare Knox to him.  He's a rare talent.

 

Yeah I already addressed the situation in 2017.  Again, it was the matter of a college QB who was drafted in 2014, who finally decided to make a position switch late in 2016, who took time to develop.  If that's all you got...

 

I've been saying g that if the Bills had increased Thomas's targets, they may have had the guy he is now, instead of the guy they have now.  Not sure how you missed that.  I've said it several times.

 

My comment about Kelce was (obviously) not to compare Thomas to him, but to belittle your endless extrapolations and "on course to..." faux stats.

 

 

It was the Bills (and kind of the Lions---for a whole 3 days) that decided (or at least agreed) Thomas was, in fact a TE, not a QB.  He had played QB with the Giants that preseason, before landing for a cup of coffee on Detroit's PS.

 

 

[Success]

Man, people are WAY too down on that fumble.  He was in traffic, and it was pretty bang bang - his big fault was trying as hard as he did to save it, but that's just instinctual.

 

I'm excited about what he brings to the table. It's a unique skill set he brings, and he has all the makings of becoming a true playmaker.  

 

[Chicken Boo]

It's his 2nd year in the league.  Knox will be just fine.

[The Wiz]

14 hours ago, papazoid said:

knox is a terrible blocker and mediocre receiver.....bills must upgrade

I'd probably say mediocre blocker and skiddish receiver.

 

His blocking is much worse than his receiving.  We usually just notice the drops more than the blocks.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's always unfair to make comparisons with the best, but the best exhibit the kind of skills that you want.  Kelce and Gronk find the ball - they know it's combining and they find it, and when it gets to them, they catch it.  In Knox's case, I think it's mostly about finding it.  I think he looks for the ball late.   I think he's running so fast, and working so hard, that the added task of turning and finding the ball is physically too much for him.  I think a lot of this is he doesn't really understand the playbook.  A guy like Kelce, without looking, knows when the ball is going to come to him, knows when it will arrive, and therefore knows when to turn and look for it.  When Knox fails to catch the ball, it seems like he's surprised that the ball is there.  He shouldn't be surprised. 

 

A couple points on this.  Last year, most of Knox's drops came on "bunnies" - relatively easy catches where he knew the ball was coming to him and he was positioned to catch it.  To your later point, he just failed to focus on completing the catch and started to think about turning upfield and running.  It didn't help him to have no OTAs this spring, but I think he worked on that.  I think some of his fumbles are focus as well - he's "swallowed the cheese" a bit and is focused on being "Mr Stiff Arm" or "Hard Knox" and making a big physical run for the team, instead of Priority #1 Hang On to the Rock. 

 

Allen, of course, has somewhat the same problem.  I picture Daboll as calling that QB run that sealed the game and saying "***** Slide once you get the 1st, or I'll Beat You Like Flank Steak" in Allen's headset (but I digress).

 

Last year and to a certain extent this year, Knox has made some very high degree of difficulty catches - balls that were high, where he had to focus to keep both feet in, throws where the defenders arm was between his or hand in his face.  He tracked the ball just fine.

 

Where I think Knox struggles both in the pass game and in blocking, is in decoding ambiguity.  He's running across the back of the endzone - should he sit down on the route, or run for the corner?  He has a defender he's supposed to read and react accordingly, and sometimes he's supposed to give Josh "Good Body Language" so Josh knows what he's running.  Other times he and Josh both have to read the same defender the same way.  I think some of the bad "misses" by Josh on throws to Knox are attributable to this - Josh sees it one way and Knox sees it another but either Josh can't "read" Knox's body language or Josh is throwing according to the defender.

 

Same problem in blocking.  Put a linebacker or even DE in front of Knox and say " sic 'em" and he'll do OK, provided it's not an all-pro guy like Judon or Bosa.  But if he needs to decode that the linebacker dropped into coverage and he's responsible for the CB instead, it's a total fail.

 

Quote

He just seems like a kid who's really excited to be where he is and isn't really focused - in the way that most guys on the team are focused - on doing his job.   Kroft, who has less physical talent, has the focus.  

 

In summary, I disagree a tad, except when he's running the ball where I think he gets focused on ***** guys up and getting the most yards at the expense of protecting the football.  I think Knox problem is sometimes figuring out what his job is supposed to be.  Which I sympathize with, but on the other hand we have rookies like Gabe Davis and Zach Moss who are "getting it".  Knox isn't a meathead - had a Wonderlic score of 38, though that could be the combination of a good prep school and good pre-draft prep. But I do have the impression he's playing "catch up" at things which are second nature to some of our guys who have been playing football at a higher level since high school and who played more in college.

 

Last point: I've been going through tape as I get a chance, asking on each offensive play what are we asking our TE to actually do, and is it being done or not?  and I have to say some of our issues with Knox and his lack of productivity are the same as my issue with Singletary and his relative lack of productivity in the passing game.  Allen would rather take a high-degree-of-difficulty throw to a small window downfield than take a checkdown to a RB, TE, or WR who has no defender within 7 yards of him (probably because the other team has understandable faith Allen won't take that shot).  I see Knox perfectly open and waiting for a throw on a number of plays so far.  I will say that sometimes I think he should be in a bit different position - that he's screened from Allen by defenders where if he were 2 yards to the right or left Allen would have a lane - but that's very hard to sort since Allen is often moving around and I don't know how Knox is being coached.

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

I've been saying g that if the Bills had increased Thomas's targets, they may have had the guy he is now, instead of the guy they have now.  Not sure how you missed that.  I've said it several times.

 

My comment about Kelce was (obviously) not to compare Thomas to him, but to belittle your endless extrapolations and "on course to..." faux stats.

 

It was the Bills (and kind of the Lions---for a whole 3 days) that decided (or at least agreed) Thomas was, in fact a TE, not a QB.  He had played QB with the Giants that preseason, before landing for a cup of coffee on Detroit's PS.

 

LOL!  As usual, you're unwittingly making my point: more targets means more production.  I knew you'd come around!

 

But the theory that Thomas was this above average TE from the beginning when he made the switch from QB is certainly interesting.  As I've been saying, he needed several years to develop.  Why not give Knox some time as well?  Oh wait, that's right, because you never liked him.

[C.Biscuit97]

Haha, what point does it serve to cut him now? I wasn’t a big fan of the pick (wild the guy didn’t have 1 td in college) but I still give him one more offseason to prove himself.  But given the lack of glaring needs, I’d love to finally have a real stud TE.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A couple points on this.  Last year, most of Knox's drops came on "bunnies" - relatively easy catches where he knew the ball was coming to him and he was positioned to catch it.  To your later point, he just failed to focus on completing the catch and started to think about turning upfield and running.  It didn't help him to have no OTAs this spring, but I think he worked on that.  I think some of his fumbles are focus as well - he's "swallowed the cheese" a bit and is focused on being "Mr Stiff Arm" or "Hard Knox" and making a big physical run for the team, instead of Priority #1 Hang On to the Rock. 

 

Allen, of course, has somewhat the same problem.  I picture Daboll as calling that QB run that sealed the game and saying "***** Slide once you get the 1st, or I'll Beat You Like Flank Steak" in Allen's headset (but I digress).

 

Last year and to a certain extent this year, Knox has made some very high degree of difficulty catches - balls that were high, where he had to focus to keep both feet in, throws where the defenders arm was between his or hand in his face.  He tracked the ball just fine.

 

Where I think Knox struggles both in the pass game and in blocking, is in decoding ambiguity.  He's running across the back of the endzone - should he sit down on the route, or run for the corner?  He has a defender he's supposed to read and react accordingly, and sometimes he's supposed to give Josh "Good Body Language" so Josh knows what he's running.  Other times he and Josh both have to read the same defender the same way.  I think some of the bad "misses" by Josh on throws to Knox are attributable to this - Josh sees it one way and Knox sees it another but either Josh can't "read" Knox's body language or Josh is throwing according to the defender.

 

Same problem in blocking.  Put a linebacker or even DE in front of Knox and say " sic 'em" and he'll do OK, provided it's not an all-pro guy like Judon or Bosa.  But if he needs to decode that the linebacker dropped into coverage and he's responsible for the CB instead, it's a total fail.

 

 

In summary, I disagree a tad, except when he's running the ball where I think he gets focused on ***** guys up and getting the most yards at the expense of protecting the football.  I think Knox problem is sometimes figuring out what his job is supposed to be.  Which I sympathize with, but on the other hand we have rookies like Gabe Davis and Zach Moss who are "getting it".  Knox isn't a meathead - had a Wonderlic score of 38, though that could be the combination of a good prep school and good pre-draft prep. But I do have the impression he's playing "catch up" at things which are second nature to some of our guys who have been playing football at a higher level since high school and who played more in college.

 

Last point: I've been going through tape as I get a chance, asking on each offensive play what are we asking our TE to actually do, and is it being done or not?  and I have to say some of our issues with Knox and his lack of productivity are the same as my issue with Singletary and his relative lack of productivity in the passing game.  Allen would rather take a high-degree-of-difficulty throw to a small window downfield than take a checkdown to a RB, TE, or WR who has no defender within 7 yards of him (probably because the other team has understandable faith Allen won't take that shot).  I see Knox perfectly open and waiting for a throw on a number of plays so far.  I will say that sometimes I think he should be in a bit different position - that he's screened from Allen by defenders where if he were 2 yards to the right or left Allen would have a lane - but that's very hard to sort since Allen is often moving around and I don't know how Knox is being coached.

It sounds to me like you see the same guy I see, except that you're willing to make more excuses for him than I.  As you say, Moss is playing more mistake-free football as a rookie than Knox in his second season.  Singletary did last year, too.  But you make me stop and think about it.  McDermott isn't slow to sit people who aren't performing, and Kroft seemed to me to be pretty steady, so the fact that Knox is playing and Kroft isn't even suiting up says that McDermott sees and believes in the potential that you (and I) see.  The guy has made some special plays, and he also gets into position to make more.  For whatever reason, he hasn't been nearly as consistent as McDermott expects of his players.  Still, he's on the field.  

 

We'll see if he develops greater consistency.  

 

Also, I wonder if he's playing because Brown isn't. I wonder if once Brown gets back, we'll see more Kroft and less Knox.  

[billsfan_34]

Many said that about Wyatt Teller. Ive been frustrated with Dawson also but he is year 2 and only one full training camp- lets not send the kid to the pasture just yet.

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

LOL!  As usual, you're unwittingly making my point: more targets means more production.  I knew you'd come around!

 

But the theory that Thomas was this above average TE from the beginning when he made the switch from QB is certainly interesting.  As I've been saying, he needed several years to develop.  Why not give Knox some time as well?  Oh wait, that's right, because you never liked him.

This whole exchange has been hysterical, Doc. Keep out smarting our great savants!

 

Sorry folks, but most of you look at player development as binary. They’re either a 1 (immediately successful) or a 0 (cut them immediately and replace them). Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. Every player comes from different backgrounds and certain skills/positions take longer to develop. The kid is raw at a position that takes awhile to develop anyway. Does he every figure it out? Idk maybe not, but making a judgement call on any player by looking at their box score is just irresponsible or a handful of plays a game where he makes a mistake. 
 

Am I overly thrilled with Knox? No. I don’t think any reasonable person is. Am I calling him a bust? No. Because I recognized when he was drafted that his development path was going to be much more lengthy than your typical college player. I think the first step is having realistic expectations for a player based on their profile... not based on what you think a 3rd round pick should look like and how they should produce and when they should produce. It does not work that way... if these guys were robots or video game characters, sure. They’re not, they’re people. 
 

He’s extremely gifted but needs to learn. Deal with the growing pains.

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Success said:

Man, people are WAY too down on that fumble.  He was in traffic, and it was pretty bang bang - his big fault was trying as hard as he did to save it, but that's just instinctual.

 

I'm excited about what he brings to the table. It's a unique skill set he brings, and he has all the makings of becoming a true playmaker.  

 

 

I’m excited about his upside. I like the edge he brings. His college experience was almost nil. Josh took some time and now people seem happy. Why can’t Knox get the same benefit of the doubt? They have the inexperience but edginess in common. 

 

Patience is a virtue. 

[Mr. WEO]

On 12/15/2020 at 7:55 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Thomas has only 3 more starts in 5 years than Knox has in 2.    In his first 2 years, he had zero and 9 targets.  Knox has had 78 targets (13 drops at 17%).  

 

The more starts and targets they gave Thomas, the better he got. Knox's curve, on the other hand, has a negative slope, despite plenty of opportunity on a pass happy Offense.

 

 

 

On 12/15/2020 at 10:18 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

They are giving Knox, a kid who had caught 39 passes since high school, a lot of time.  The first team to give Thomas that much work he produces.  Knox hasn't.

 

 

 

On 12/15/2020 at 7:32 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Anyway.  Yeah, when your big idea is to turn a QB into a TE, you need to throw him the ball, you know---to see if he's good at being a receiver.    Lee Smith (1.0) was already on the roster as a "blocking TE".   In his 1st year, he had 9 targets and after the "midpoint of his first season the with the Bills", he had not "about a third the snaps" but instead he had 30, 28 19, 33, 4 and 5% of the snaps.  He was given nothing meaningful to do.  His second year he had more snaps but only 17 targets all year.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

23 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

 

 In his last 4 games he had 19, 33, 4 and 5% of snaps.  28 and 30% before that. I would "call it" 1 game at 33%, 4 under 20 and 2 at 5% or less.  "dearth of talent" in Washington?  In Thomas's rookie year the leading receiver was McCoy (in targets) and Clay in yards (558).  That's a dearth of talent, no?

 

Compare that to Knox, who got over 50% of the snaps in 13 of his 15 rookie games and 7 over 70%.  He was 3rd in targets. And that's with Brown and Beasely on the roster (better options than McCoy and Clay, no?).

 

 

.   Also, if the Bills had played Thomas in his first 2 seasons like they play Knox, they would likely not have had to blow a pick on a guy who rarely caught passes in college. That's the point  of this discussion.

 

 

 

 

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

 

You claimed that Thomas is only getting touches in Washington because of the dearth of talent.  The obvious (counter)point I made is that There was also a dearth of talent his rookie year in Buffalo----yet no such touches, let alone "about 33%".  I only get "hung-up on the numbers" when I'm correcting your inaccurate figures.

 

It's hard to "get up to speed" when you are relegated to 5% or fewer snaps.

 

11 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I've been saying g that if the Bills had increased Thomas's targets, they may have had the guy he is now, instead of the guy they have now.  Not sure how you missed that.  I've said it several times.

 

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

LOL!  As usual, you're unwittingly making my point: more targets means more production.  I knew you'd come around!

 

But the theory that Thomas was this above average TE from the beginning when he made the switch from QB is certainly interesting.  As I've been saying, he needed several years to develop.  Why not give Knox some time as well?  Oh wait, that's right, because you never liked him.

 

 

LOL--I "came around" to "your point" when I first made it day s ago.

 

You never disappoint, doc.

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

LOL--I "came around" to "your point" when I first made it day s ago.

 

You never disappoint, doc.

 

So then...more targets for Knox means he'll produce at least at the level of Thomas?  Again, you've come around!

 

But you can keep believing that Thomas didn't need years of development at TE, considering he hadn't played the position since HS and the NFL is an order of magnitude different in learning a completely new position.  

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

So then...more targets for Knox means he'll produce at least at the level of Thomas?  Again, you've come around!

 

But you can keep believing that Thomas didn't need years of development at TE, considering he hadn't played the position since HS and the NFL is an order of magnitude different in learning a completely new position.  

 

No.  Knox can't catch.  Thomas is a better QB converted TE than Knox is a TE.

 

Thomas didn't get much if any "development at TE" in Buffalo.  Nothing like what Knox is getting.  Washington put out there a guy with 54 targets in the previous 3 years---and he's making the most of the opportunity.  Knox got that much opportunity as a rookie.  Now he's certainly not getting better with another year of development. They are using him for quick dump offs at this point. His yards before catch went from 8.7 to 1.9.

[Doc]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

No.  Knox can't catch.  Thomas is a better QB converted TE than Knox is a TE.

 

Thomas didn't get much if any "development at TE" in Buffalo.  Nothing like what Knox is getting.  Washington put out there a guy with 54 targets in the previous 3 years---and he's making the most of the opportunity.  Knox got that much opportunity as a rookie.  Now he's certainly not getting better with another year of development. They are using him for quick dump offs at this point. His yards before catch went from 8.7 to 1.9.

 

So Washington is the place to get development at TE?  As for your bolded part, lend me that crystal ball.  

 

In any case, he's not going anywhere before at least final cutdowns.  We'll revisit this later.