Allen, the run, and rhythm passing

[ghostwriter]

If you want to be a passing team, by all means, let’s be a passing team. Probably the right way to go, but you still need to be good at situational running. Some situations you absolutely have to run.

[NickelCity]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There are no Football Gods sitting on a cloud above Bills Stadium demanding tribute in the form of running plays.   If runs aren't working, and you can move the sticks and score throwing the ball, then don't run the ball.  It's called playing to your strengths and it's what good offenses do.  

 

I mean, to this point, my intent in the OP was not to suggest we need to get better at running the ball. It was whether Allen is better when his passing attempts or ratio is high. I think he is, but I also haven't don't analyses to back this up or see whether it's more a function of the defenses we're playing.

 

I think I feel similarly to one of Hapless' comments above: 

 

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

1) In the past, what I've seen is that Allen starts out tight in big games and needs to work into a groove.  So where that's the case, you're right on that Allen passes better when we're pass heavy, because he works into the groove faster.  Usually these are "big games" against a touted opponent or QB (Ravens last year, I thought he was a little tight at the start of the Cowboys and Steelers games, Titans and KC this year).

2) I've been highly encouraged that in some "big games" this year, I think Allen's on point right from the start - SF would be a great example.  And if Allen is able to come out steady, then I don't think it matters as much what the R/P balance is.

 

 

I think Allen's big games have been pretty damn good this year. The titans was a dud of a game, and KC wasn't great but rewatching it I wish we'd just gone with a better game plan and opened it up (as many have noted). He looked like he was right on the edge of popping off...in a more pass heavy approach from earlier on maybe he would have, weather be damned. But hell, I'm just so stoked on Allen that I want to see him wing the ball as much as possible.

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by NickelCity

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Erik Turner of Cover1 has at times pointed to the quick passing game using Beasley and screens as "an extension of the run game".

 

Kurt Warner made the same point on one of the post-game analysis shows.  Apparently he coaches a HS team and said they use quick passes and screens as an extension of their run game (I wonder what that team is like?)

 

Will a week make a difference, depends on why, right?  If one reason is they've been practicing 50 pass plays and 2 run plays while the line plays musical chairs, then a week where we practice 50 run plays and 2 pass plays and continuity on the line can make a difference.  Seemed to in the NE game, and after the bye week - at least, those were the games where we garnered a respectable 5 and 5.7 YPA rushing.  Maybe practice does make perfect?  🤷‍♂️

 

I agree with you that I very much like the screen elements we show from time to time, but where they don't work, I see perhaps the same issue where we aren't practicing enough to nail the timing of the blocks down or where the TE and WR just don't make good blocks. 

 

Guys are almost always open for the quick passing game and I wish we'd take more advantage of that.  I saw promising hints against SF.

We are on the same page here, but to add on...I wish we had a better run game. Actual run,  or just run concepts/productivity. While the line has been good in pass pro, we get little push on the run. If this were Allen year 1 or 2, I would be fully on board in forcing between the tackles.
 

But getting Allen in a rhythm makes the offense dominant. And our current RB stable means we will never do a great job naturally running outside. So the biggest need is high percentage 1-4 yard pick ups while keeping the clock going. Stop riding the RB’s and OL who have not been consistently good at it, and start finding those yards in meaningful situations in what we are good at. Get Allen under center, get creative with the screen, and hit those super quick slants, and hopefully burn then occasionally with a misread seam. Beasley is a great example. 
 

I am with you here my friend.

 

Also, Jesus, could you imagine being a HS coach and Kurt Warner is running the “greatest show on turf” concepts against you. Somebody mentioned the same thing about early day Kyle Shannahan days. Don’t forget it wasn’t that long ago that Mike Pettine was coaching HS ball. Pettine runs a complex scheme, imagine being 16 years old and that is what lines up against you. Hard pass. 😂

Edited December 12, 2020 by Mango

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

Also, Jesus, could you imagine being a HS coach and Kurt Warner is running the “greatest show on turf” concepts against you. Somebody mentioned the same thing about early day Kyle Shannahan days. Don’t forget it wasn’t that long ago that Mike Pettine was coaching HS ball. Pettine runs a complex scheme, imagine being 16 years old and that is what lines up against you. Hard pass. 😂

 

We had a HS here 9-10 yrs back, that had Gus Frerotte coaching and Zeke Elliot at RB.   Ouch.

[Hebert19]

7 hours ago, NickelCity said:

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

If we committed to the run.  We could run for 150 per game.    And we have proved it.  But we also have 27 drives of 10 plays or more without running the ball.   So...we can sustain drives however the game and situation calls for.  

 

4 minute drill.  We can run the ball.  2 minute drill we can throw every play. This O hasn't even come close to peaking. 

[Figster]

16 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

If we committed to the run.  We could run for 150 per game.    And we have proved it.  But we also have 27 drives of 10 plays or more without running the ball.   So...we can sustain drives however the game and situation calls for.  

 

4 minute drill.  We can run the ball.  2 minute drill we can throw every play. This O hasn't even come close to peaking. 

I agree with this although I think to run for 150 per game when committed requires keeping the RB's involved enough in the O in every game IMO. I think the more you can evenly distribute the football to all of your playmakers the harder you become to defednd IMO.

 

On a side note and pure speculation. It appears Allen is mastering the technique of playing devoid of emotion.  Its possible losing his Grandma may have helped trigger this cold as ice zone Josh Allen has found himself playing in IMO.

 

Again, pure speculation on my part and diving deep into the mind of the Figster...( where no man wants to go)

Edited December 12, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There are no Football Gods sitting on a cloud above Bills Stadium demanding tribute in the form of running plays.   If runs aren't working, and you can move the sticks and score throwing the ball, then don't run the ball.  It's called playing to your strengths and it's what good offenses do. 

(...)

If an opponent wants to stack the box to stop our running game and feels comfortable leaving Beasley and Diggs in single coverage, be my guest.  Even in 30 mph winds and rain I like the odds of Allen making them pay dearly a couple of times.  At the end of the day, we win by playing to our strengths and against their weaknesses.  Right now our strength is Allen's arm and our receiving corps. We need to stick with the passing game as long as we can in every game until the opposition stops it.

 

I think the point is:

1) what do we do when the opposition stops the passing game, or when conditions are so brutal it's ineffective?

2) if we don't have a run game, it allows the opposition to scratch that off their list o' things to worry about and focus on stopping the pass.