Allen, the run, and rhythm passing

[NickelCity]

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

Edited December 11, 2020 by NickelCity

[The Wiz]

Honestly I think our line is really built better for pass protection than they are run blocking and that has hurt our running game.  That being said, I think we are fine at this point just passing the ball more than running the ball but we definitely need to figure something out with the run game because once we get the bad weather we will need to be better at keeping the ground on the ball as well as using it for play action.

 

I think this is partially the reason why we see the jet sweep (or a variation of it) at least twice a game because that needs to be done to keep the defense honest since we aren't great at running between the tackles.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

 

I have been saying it for two years. Allen is better when the game is in his hands. When the Bills are run heavy Josh gets out of rhythm and is less good passing. The good news is the difference has been less stark this year (albeit we have run less). 

[NickelCity]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have been saying it for two years. Allen is better when the game is in his hands. When the Bills are run heavy Josh gets out of rhythm and is less good passing. The good news is the difference has been less stark this year (albeit we have run less). 

 

You just HAD to one up my summer 2019 post. Dammit Gunner. 🙄

 

But "when the game is in his hands" brings up an observation: I think last year a lot of us had faith in his "clutch" gene, and felt like that was when he was at his best at the end of a close game even if he hadn't been great prior to then. This year I think your statement is almost more literal (at least for me). He plays best when he's an integral part of the vast majority of plays. 

[BuffaloMatt]

Solution to the run game  = more Lee Smith. You guys can thank me later. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by BuffaloMatt

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

 

Bills have the most drives of 10+ plays in the NFL this year...I think they are doing just fine. Pretty much anytime we want, Allen can run a draw for 10 or 15 yards against certain looks.

Edited December 11, 2020 by matter2003

[MJS]

I'm not really frustrated with the run game. How many years did we see New England dominate with basically no run game? 

 

That being said, it would be nice to have it for those inclement weather games. I think Allen handles thole bad weather worse than we would like. Not to say he can't improve.

 

Anyone know how many draw plays we use? That might be more effective for us than just lining up in an I-Formation and running it. I know we see QB draws a fair bit.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have been saying it for two years. Allen is better when the game is in his hands. When the Bills are run heavy Josh gets out of rhythm and is less good passing. The good news is the difference has been less stark this year (albeit we have run less). 

I agree that he’s better when we are pass heavy.  The question I have, is an extremely pass heavy offense, like we were against Seattle, able to string together wins en route to a title?
 

When the super  bowl was on the line last year, the chiefs passed on almost every play.  I believe they had 2 rushes (including a 35+ yard TD) during their last 3 scoring drives and 5 Rushes in the 2nd half.   Damian Williams had 17 carries, 12 in the first half.  Was that offensive explosion set up by their willingness to run the ball in the first half?  Or was rushing just the reason for a poor first half?  
 

when teams know that you’re going to pass on every play, it makes you easier to defend.  “Keeping the D” honest has almost always rung true.  If you don’t run have a threat of the run than it’s hard to confuse them.  Considering that we run more play action than anyone, can we continue with this success in play action if teams play the pass against us every play?  A dose of running is likely necessary vs playoff caliber teams.  
 

Maybe it’s smart to mix in more run this time of year with hopes that some success with it will just open up the pass game even more, as defenses can’t just sell out to stop our best trait.  The pass game.  
 

i catch myself yelling:  “don’t run!!!” prior to so many offensive plays.  Our passing game is so good at times and running the ball seems like it’s holding us back.....but if we don’t run, can our passing game still succeed....4 games in a row when it’s win or go home?  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree that he’s better when we are pass heavy.  The question I have, is an extremely pass heavy offense, like we were against Seattle, able to string together wins en route to a title?
 

When the super  bowl was on the line last year, the chiefs passed on almost every play.  I believe they had 2 rushes (including a 35+ yard TD) during their last 3 scoring drives and 5 Rushes in the 2nd half.   Damian Williams had 17 carries, 12 in the first half.  Was that offensive explosion set up by their willingness to run the ball in the first half?  Or was rushing just the reason for a poor first half?  
 

when teams know that you’re going to pass on every play, it makes you easier to defend.  “Keeping the D” honest has almost always rung true.  If you don’t run have a threat of the run than it’s hard to confuse them.  Considering that we run more play action than anyone, can we continue with this success in play action if teams play the pass against us every play?  A dose of running is likely necessary vs playoff caliber teams.  
 

Maybe it’s smart to mix in more run this time of year with hopes that some success with it will just open up the pass game even more, as defenses can’t just sell out to stop our best trait.  The pass game.  
 

i catch myself yelling:  “don’t run!!!” prior to so many offensive plays.  Our passing game is so good at times and running the ball seems like it’s holding us back.....but if we don’t run, can our passing game still succeed....4 games in a row when it’s win or go home?  

 

 

 

I wonder that sometimes too. But for now I am not gonna worry about it until it is a problem.

[Mango]

3 hours ago, NickelCity said:

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

To your final point, I’ve actually been much more frustrated at our quick passing game. It’s clear it’s very important to get Allen in rhythm early, but until last week we have had a non-existent quick passing and/or screen game. 
 

I brought this up when McD said he needed to make the run game work in the bye. If we haven’t been able to get it going in 10 weeks, a week off won’t do it. We needed the passing game to step in for situational yardage and play to our strength. Take a page from Eddie George and/or the 2001 Rams. 
 

I am getting the sense watching the defense and how we have morphed over the season, that McD has been methodically been adding schemes, plays, parts to our playbook. I have been pleased. 

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I agree that he’s better when we are pass heavy.  The question I have, is an extremely pass heavy offense, like we were against Seattle, able to string together wins en route to a title?
 

When the super  bowl was on the line last year, the chiefs passed on almost every play.  I believe they had 2 rushes (including a 35+ yard TD) during their last 3 scoring drives and 5 Rushes in the 2nd half.   Damian Williams had 17 carries, 12 in the first half.  Was that offensive explosion set up by their willingness to run the ball in the first half?  Or was rushing just the reason for a poor first half?  
 

when teams know that you’re going to pass on every play, it makes you easier to defend.  “Keeping the D” honest has almost always rung true.  If you don’t run have a threat of the run than it’s hard to confuse them.  Considering that we run more play action than anyone, can we continue with this success in play action if teams play the pass against us every play?  A dose of running is likely necessary vs playoff caliber teams.  
 

Maybe it’s smart to mix in more run this time of year with hopes that some success with it will just open up the pass game even more, as defenses can’t just sell out to stop our best trait.  The pass game.  
 

i catch myself yelling:  “don’t run!!!” prior to so many offensive plays.  Our passing game is so good at times and running the ball seems like it’s holding us back.....but if we don’t run, can our passing game still succeed....4 games in a row when it’s win or go home?  

 

 

To this point, we need a better situational passing game. We were much better last week at this, especially with screens. But we haven’t been great with screens this season (Gailey is the best in the game at screens) and rarely lean on or try any quick 3 step drops. 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

Solution to the run game  = more Lee Smith. You guys can thank me later. 

I’m thinking,  more cow bell...

[Saint Doug]

We definitely need a better running game. Every few games, Allen will have a game where he’s just “off” (but he usually come back on in the 4th). It would be nice if we could lean on a run game in those situations. 

[Chandler#81]

Nothing a Christian Okoye-type RB can’t fix. Moss & Singletary are 2 of a kind. A power back would force another LB on the field, further freeing up our WRs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, NickelCity said:

This has been talked about to a degree, often somewhat implicit in two viewpoints: (1) we're a modern pass heavy offense, who cares about the run, vs (2) it's frustrating that we can't rely on our run game to get 1 yard when we need it (QB sneaks notwithstanding). But I also think Allen is at his best when he throws a lot. In August 2019 we discussed it as it related to developing a young QB, and I think it may have been borne out since then (yes, linking my own old thread is a bit LAMPy but I'm still interested in the topic and I've only created one other topic between Aug2019 and now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯).

 

 

All this is to say, while I am a bit frustrated by our running game in certain contexts, I am wary of overcommitting. And not just because we move the ball more effectively when we pass, but because I think Allen passes the ball better when we go pass heavy. I wonder if this is just an arm chair takeaway, and that it's more about the opponent/defense we face, or if there is validity to it.

 

OK so there's a couple of things that come to mind.  I'll pour them out in no particular order.

 

Function:

1) When I've seen breakdowns of run plays, or attempted my own - it's not always on the OL.  Sometimes there are supposed to be blocks by TE or WR to spring the play and they whiff and as a result the back gets stuffed behind the LOS. 

2) When it is on the OL - a lot of it may not be that they can't, but that they haven't practiced it enough to be proficient together.  There's only so much practice time in a week.  When the team practiced run blocking extensively before the NE game or the Chargers game, they blocked OK and they ran OK.  That said, neither of those teams has a top DL against the run game.  Can we run block against a top DL, not sure.  We couldn't against the Titans....

3) I don't think either Singletary or Moss really have the speed to break to the outside.  But neither of them (IMO) seems to have the power to just plow into the line when the blocking ain't there, and come away with 3 yards, either.  I don't like what I just wrote and I want to be wrong.

 

Allen:

1) I think we ran against NE and the Chargers because Daboll saw it as a favorable matchup.  I don't think Daboll GAF if he's passing 50 times a game or running 50 times a game and I think Daboll believes in showing balance overall between different games, not necessarily within a game. 

2) That said, I think it's important for Allen to truly internalize the message "it's a team win, it's a team loss, it's not all on you".  And I think that's part of what Daboll hopes to achieve when he comes out with a gameplan that has Allen handing off 38 times and passing 18, as we did vs NE.  Chris Simms said after the Chargers game, that he thought it was encouraging to see the run game and defense as #1 and 2 and Allen as #3 in the factors of the teams wins, that it was good to see Josh Allen "manage a game a little bit and not just be crazy and play like his ass is on fire and do stupid *****". 

3) I think it's important for the team to believe that the team can win when his contributions are #3, because that way everyone on the team knows that they can look within themselves and say "what more can I do" and not just wait for Allen to pour a bowl of Joshie-O's and feed them.

 

Pass heavy:

1) In the past, what I've seen is that Allen starts out tight in big games and needs to work into a groove.  So where that's the case, you're right on that Allen passes better when we're pass heavy, because he works into the groove faster.  Usually these are "big games" against a touted opponent or QB (Ravens last year, I thought he was a little tight at the start of the Cowboys and Steelers games, Titans and KC this year).

2) I've been highly encouraged that in some "big games" this year, I think Allen's on point right from the start - SF would be a great example.  And if Allen is able to come out steady, then I don't think it matters as much what the R/P balance is.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

To your final point, I’ve actually been much more frustrated at our quick passing game. It’s clear it’s very important to get Allen in rhythm early, but until last week we have had a non-existent quick passing and/or screen game. 
 

I brought this up when McD said he needed to make the run game work in the bye. If we haven’t been able to get it going in 10 weeks, a week off won’t do it. We needed the passing game to step in for situational yardage and play to our strength. Take a page from Eddie George and/or the 2001 Rams.

 

Erik Turner of Cover1 has at times pointed to the quick passing game using Beasley and screens as "an extension of the run game".

 

Kurt Warner made the same point on one of the post-game analysis shows.  Apparently he coaches a HS team and said they use quick passes and screens as an extension of their run game (I wonder what that team is like?)

 

Will a week make a difference, depends on why, right?  If one reason is they've been practicing 50 pass plays and 2 run plays while the line plays musical chairs, then a week where we practice 50 run plays and 2 pass plays and continuity on the line can make a difference.  Seemed to in the NE game, and after the bye week - at least, those were the games where we garnered a respectable 5 and 5.7 YPA rushing.  Maybe practice does make perfect?  🤷‍♂️

 

I agree with you that I very much like the screen elements we show from time to time, but where they don't work, I see perhaps the same issue where we aren't practicing enough to nail the timing of the blocks down or where the TE and WR just don't make good blocks. 

 

Guys are almost always open for the quick passing game and I wish we'd take more advantage of that.  I saw promising hints against SF.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Pass heavy:

1) In the past, what I've seen is that Allen starts out tight in big games and needs to work into a groove.  So where that's the case, you're right on that Allen passes better when we're pass heavy, because he works into the groove faster.  Usually these are "big games" against a touted opponent or QB (Ravens last year, I thought he was a little tight at the start of the Cowboys and Steelers games, Titans and KC this year).

2) I've been highly encouraged that in some "big games" this year, I think Allen's on point right from the start - SF would be a great example.  And if Allen is able to come out steady, then I don't think it matters as much what the R/P balance is.

 

 

 

Yep.......he's started out some games hot but I think it's very important to get him in a groove early in case he's not.    Wasn't happy at all with the game plans against Tennessee and KC where Daboll seemed too interested in running the ball early when he had a QB averaging over 9 ypa and runners getting less than 4 ypa.       It's a lot different when you have a QB averaging in the low 6 ypa range and backs getting 5.5 like the 2016 Bills.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yep.......he's started out some games hot but I think it's very important to get him in a groove early in case he's not.    Wasn't happy at all with the game plans against Tennessee and KC where Daboll seemed too interested in running the ball early when he had a QB averaging over 9 ypa and runners getting less than 4 ypa.       It's a lot different when you have a QB averaging in the low 6 ypa range and backs getting 5.5 like the 2016 Bills.

 

Objectively, on the first 2 drives against Tennessee, there were 5 called run plays plus 2 rushes by Allen that appeared to be scrambles.

There were 13 called pass plays (15 including the apparent scrambles) for 71 yards - that's 5.6 ypa on average - not 9 - which is, in fact, lower than 6 ypa.

Gotta count the 5 incompletions, and the INT in the pass average.

 

It's also a 75/25 pass/run ratio, which most would call pretty pass heavy.

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Honestly I think our line is really built better for pass protection than they are run blocking and that has hurt our running game.  That being said, I think we are fine at this point just passing the ball more than running the ball but we definitely need to figure something out with the run game because once we get the bad weather we will need to be better at keeping the ground on the ball as well as using it for play action.

 

I think this is partially the reason why we see the jet sweep (or a variation of it) at least twice a game because that needs to be done to keep the defense honest since we aren't great at running between the tackles.

Singletary has been warming up the last few games with some good punishing runs.  What our RBs haven't done is have the big chunk plays...except for that one Moss run a couple of weeks ago.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Nothing a Christian Okoye-type RB can’t fix. Moss & Singletary are 2 of a kind. A power back would force another LB on the field, further freeing up our WRs.

I wouldn’t mind have an in his prime Nigerian Nightmare. Always wondered how good he would have been if he’d have played football before he was of legal drinking age. 

[Inigo Montoya]

There are no Football Gods sitting on a cloud above Bills Stadium demanding tribute in the form of running plays.   If runs aren't working, and you can move the sticks and score throwing the ball, then don't run the ball.  It's called playing to your strengths and it's what good offenses do.  

 

Case in point, the Chiefs have five games this season where they didn't even break 100 yards rushing as a team.  Two of those games they only ran for 36 yards and 50 yards, and they won both of them.  I don't remember people going crazy about the lack of a Chief's running game after those contests.  They are a passing offense.  Most games this year they are 2:1 passing to running.  The only week where they featured the run was against the Bills in Week 6.

 

Would it be great if we could run the ball like the Titans?  Absolutely.  

 

Can we run the ball enough to get bye if the weather or game script demands it?  Probably.  When Daboll made it a point to run the ball against the the Chargers we had more running plays than pass plays and averaged 5.7 yards a carry.  I think we can all live with that.  I also think the current composition of our O-Line is better than it was back in Week 12 versus the Chargers.

 

If an opponent wants to stack the box to stop our running game and feels comfortable leaving Beasley and Diggs in single coverage, be my guest.  Even in 30 mph winds and rain I like the odds of Allen making them pay dearly a couple of times.  At the end of the day, we win by playing to our strengths and against their weaknesses.  Right now our strength is Allen's arm and our receiving corps. We need to stick with the passing game as long as we can in every game until the opposition stops it.