Kubiak on Bills-49ers

[Hapless Bills Fan]

He agrees, Josh's best game of the season

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-josh-allen-provides-window-into-his-future-with-astounding-game-against-niners/article_b3101a86-39c0-11eb-bf05-af4df9189902.html

 

FWIW @Shaw66 (think that was you), Kubiak saw Smith's route the same way I did.  Note the hand motions Josh makes with his L hand just before he throws:

 

The drive ended on a failed 4th-and-goal attempt in which Allen had the right idea, but tight end Lee Smith was not able to adjust his route soon enough.  Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll wanted to make it look as if the Bills were going to run the football with his use of jumbo personnel. Tackle Ryan Bates was eligible to Allen’s left, and tight ends Reggie Gilliam, Dawson Knox and Smith were on Allen’s right. Daboll wanted to create flow to the right and then attack to the left side of the field with Bates and Smith. The 49ers’ defense did not take the bait on the play-action and were waiting in position for Buffalo’s crossers. 

Smith was tasked with trying to sneak behind the linebackers, but Dre Greenlaw was waiting. Smith could have settled in the open area before getting to Greenlaw for an easy touchdown, but instead ran across, directly into the waiting defender. 

 

Allen saw Greenlaw and wanted Smith to slow down or stop in the open area. Smith, however, continued his route and was running to be covered. Allen tried to throw the football to the safe area behind Smith, where he wanted him to settle, but Smith was unable to rein it in. The Bills turned the ball over on downs.

 

I "get it" that Lee Smith is by far the better blocker than Kroft or Knox and that probably the decision to bench one of them and activate Smith emerged from the Bills "deep dive" into "what the @#%$ is wrong with the run game?" during the bye, but I wish Daboll wouldn't design plays where Smith and Bates are the receiving options.   Bates might, but it just seems improbable that Smith will adjust his receiving game at this point.

 

Kubiak loves that seemingly risky throw to Davis:

On second-and-12 from the Niners’ 32-yard line, Allen found Davis with perhaps his best throw of the season. Allen had a three-receiver concept to his left. Davis was the outside receiver, Stefon Diggs was in the slot and tight end Knox had motioned across to that side. Daboll was attempting to flood the left side of the field. Diggs' job was to run the seam, either as a viable option in Cover 3 or to clear the area out against man or Cover 4 zone coverage. Davis was tasked with a dig route, flashing underneath Diggs. Knox had motioned across to run a wheel route to the outside of Davis. This was a terrific concept design, as well as an incredible delivery by Allen.

Allen was able to read the defense, anticipate where Davis would be and get the football over linebacker Fred Warner, who was dropping into his zone. The ball traveled over Warner’s outstretched hands and into the reception area where only Davis could make the catch. This was a sensational completion that was built on timing, great technique and that velocity that only Allen has.

 

I'd like to add the point that for throws like this, the difference between a successful completion and an incompletion (at best) or a pick, is just that extra fraction of a second of pass protection for Allen in the pocket.  Allen didn't get that last week.  This week, he did.

 

Oh yeah one more thing:  That TD pass to Dawson Knox?  Kubiak says it was an RPO with DE Arik Armstead as the conflict defender. Apparently Daboll hasn't read the book about not running an RPO with a DE as the conflict defender.

 

Anyway, Kubiak not only knows football, he watches enough that he knows the tendencies of the vet players, and he puts that knowledge in there (example: comments on Sherman's coverage tendencies).  IMO this is great stuff and for the Bills fan, well worth the subscription price (I think they're currently running a special), if you don't already get it, check it out.  Full Disclosure: I have absolutely no association whatsoever with TBN, I just find this guy's stuff really worthwhile.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The big thing on that 2nd and 12 thing to me isn't just the pass pro.  It's the trajectory.  It wasn't a fastball, it wasn't a high pass, it was where it needed to be.  If there were invisibile tires hanging in the air with the perfect throw going through all of them - he threw it through all of them.  Perfect touch, perfect velocity to not get defended.

[TPS]

I think Dabol has used the tackle eligible too much.  I called it out when they lined up. If I knew it, the 49ers darn sure knew it. I also think he's trying to stay away from designed runs by Josh because of his injuries.  Minor quibbles ...

[Doc]

Yeah, Smith should’ve gotten to the open area and just sat there.

[Ramza86]

I made a heartwarming thread about Lee Smith glad everyone saw it too. lol

[YattaOkasan]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Oh yeah one more thing:  That TD pass to Dawson Knox?  Kubiak says it was an RPO with DE Arik Armstead as the conflict defender. Apparently Daboll hasn't read the book about not running an RPO with a DE as the conflict defender.

 

Anyway, Kubiak not only knows football, he watches enough that he knows the tendencies of the vet players, and he puts that knowledge in there (example: comments on Sherman's coverage tendencies).  IMO this is great stuff and for the Bills fan, well worth the subscription price (I think they're currently running a special), if you don't already get it, check it out.  Full Disclosure: I have absolutely no association whatsoever with TBN, I just find this guy's stuff really worthwhile.

Thanks.  You might be right, but Josh also sorta seems to be looking at the LB #57 as the conflict defender.  When #57 over commits to the run he hits Knox cause its hat on a hat after that.

 

 

Just now, Ramza86 said:

I made a heartwarming thread about Lee Smith glad everyone saw it too. lol

 Surprised they let us at the grown up table.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 minutes ago, TPS said:

I think Dabol has used the tackle eligible too much.  I called it out when they lined up. If I knew it, the 49ers darn sure knew it. I also think he's trying to stay away from designed runs by Josh because of his injuries.  Minor quibbles ...

 

I mean.... you gotta occaisionally hammer them with those tackle eligible looks.  If they stack the middle for the sneak you have to attack outside the tackle.  You should be able to get in there.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

He agrees, Josh's best game of the season

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-josh-allen-provides-window-into-his-future-with-astounding-game-against-niners/article_b3101a86-39c0-11eb-bf05-af4df9189902.html

 

FWIW @Shaw66 (think that was you), Kubiak saw Smith's route the same way I did.  Note the hand motions Josh makes with his L hand just before he throws:

 

The drive ended on a failed 4th-and-goal attempt in which Allen had the right idea, but tight end Lee Smith was not able to adjust his route soon enough.  Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll wanted to make it look as if the Bills were going to run the football with his use of jumbo personnel. Tackle Ryan Bates was eligible to Allen’s left, and tight ends Reggie Gilliam, Dawson Knox and Smith were on Allen’s right. Daboll wanted to create flow to the right and then attack to the left side of the field with Bates and Smith. The 49ers’ defense did not take the bait on the play-action and were waiting in position for Buffalo’s crossers. 

Smith was tasked with trying to sneak behind the linebackers, but Dre Greenlaw was waiting. Smith could have settled in the open area before getting to Greenlaw for an easy touchdown, but instead ran across, directly into the waiting defender. 

 

Allen saw Greenlaw and wanted Smith to slow down or stop in the open area. Smith, however, continued his route and was running to be covered. Allen tried to throw the football to the safe area behind Smith, where he wanted him to settle, but Smith was unable to rein it in. The Bills turned the ball over on downs.

 

I "get it" that Lee Smith is by far the better blocker than Kroft or Knox and that probably the decision to bench one of them and activate Smith emerged from the Bills "deep dive" into "what the @#%$ is wrong with the run game?" during the bye, but I wish Daboll wouldn't design plays where Smith and Bates are the receiving options.   Bates might, but it just seems improbable that Smith will adjust his receiving game at this point.

 

Kubiak loves that seemingly risky throw to Davis:

On second-and-12 from the Niners’ 32-yard line, Allen found Davis with perhaps his best throw of the season. Allen had a three-receiver concept to his left. Davis was the outside receiver, Stefon Diggs was in the slot and tight end Knox had motioned across to that side. Daboll was attempting to flood the left side of the field. Diggs' job was to run the seam, either as a viable option in Cover 3 or to clear the area out against man or Cover 4 zone coverage. Davis was tasked with a dig route, flashing underneath Diggs. Knox had motioned across to run a wheel route to the outside of Davis. This was a terrific concept design, as well as an incredible delivery by Allen.

Allen was able to read the defense, anticipate where Davis would be and get the football over linebacker Fred Warner, who was dropping into his zone. The ball traveled over Warner’s outstretched hands and into the reception area where only Davis could make the catch. This was a sensational completion that was built on timing, great technique and that velocity that only Allen has.

 

I'd like to add the point that for throws like this, the difference between a successful completion and an incompletion (at best) or a pick, is just that extra fraction of a second of pass protection for Allen in the pocket.  Allen didn't get that last week.  This week, he did.

 

Oh yeah one more thing:  That TD pass to Dawson Knox?  Kubiak says it was an RPO with DE Arik Armstead as the conflict defender. Apparently Daboll hasn't read the book about not running an RPO with a DE as the conflict defender.

 

Anyway, Kubiak not only knows football, he watches enough that he knows the tendencies of the vet players, and he puts that knowledge in there (example: comments on Sherman's coverage tendencies).  IMO this is great stuff and for the Bills fan, well worth the subscription price (I think they're currently running a special), if you don't already get it, check it out.  Full Disclosure: I have absolutely no association whatsoever with TBN, I just find this guy's stuff really worthwhile.

 

Part of the reason Bates and Smith are in there is because Daboll wanted to make the 49ers believe they were running on the play, which is done in part by bringing in certain players and then the formation.  Likely in their film study, 95% of the plays they did this on were run plays, which would have gotten the 49ers keyed to expect a run. Then with the hard fake, they were hoping to suck in the LB's and have players attack the RB, which didn't happen.

Edited December 11, 2020 by matter2003

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks.  You might be right, but Josh also sorta seems to be looking at the LB #57 as the conflict defender.  When #57 over commits to the run he hits Knox cause its hat on a hat after that.

 

In this case, I was quoting Kubiak 🤷‍♂️.  Though I do see it the same way in the clip you included.

 

Maybe send him a note, let him know he's mistaken. 😄

[YattaOkasan]

Apparently cover 1 is taking film breakdowns by request in their slack channel.  Erik thinks its just a plain screen and not an RPO.  I know hes not a pro but a lot of the players do consult him for breakdowns during the offseason (he has a really good relationship with Lorax for example).

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In this case, I was quoting Kubiak 🤷‍♂️.  Though I do see it the same way in the clip you included.

 

Maybe send him a note, let him know he's mistaken. 😄

i try to stay off social media.  this forum is about as far as i go.  I agree Kubiak is a good source and appreciate you bringing it up.  I only have so much to spend but if i had more i would subscribe.

Edited December 11, 2020 by YattaOkasan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Apparently cover 1 is taking film breakdowns by request in their slack channel.  Erik thinks its just a plain screen and not an RPO.  I know hes not a pro but a lot of the players do consult him for breakdowns during the offseason (he has a really good relationship with Lorax for example).

i try to stay off social media.  this forum is about as far as i go.  

 

Now that I read it again, it's possible that Kubiak meant it's designed to *look* like an RPO but it actually isn't.

 

The difference between a screen play designed to look like a fake RPO and an RPO is getting WAAAAAAAAY beyond my abilities to distinguish

 

Oh....and wtf is a "slack channel"?  Methinks you're ginned up on this social media stuff....

[LABILLBACKER]

58 minutes ago, Doc said:

Yeah, Smith should’ve gotten to the open area and just sat there.

Yes he's a very good blocker and team leader. But I don't want him finding seams or running routes. That should be assigned to Kroft & Knox. Activate Kroft over Gilliam and let Lee block to his hearts content.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Yeah, Smith should’ve gotten to the open area and just sat there.

I do enjoy that hapless is more optimistic about bates adjusting a route 

[Rochesterfan]

17 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes he's a very good blocker and team leader. But I don't want him finding seams or running routes. That should be assigned to Kroft & Knox. Activate Kroft over Gilliam and let Lee block to his hearts content.

 

They are not activating Kroft over Gilliam because Gilliam gives them special teams plays.  It just is not happening. Gilliam is on this team for special teams and they are not benching him for guys that can’t play teams.

 

Therefore - you have Smith, Kroft, and Knox and the Bills are playing 2 of the 3 - this allows the extra WRs so they can spread the field.

 

I have no issue sitting Smith and having Knox and Kroft available, but the 2 of them are very similar in technique and what they provide.  Smith is the odd TE out because of his big frame and blocking and what it presents to a defense.

 

What I don’t know is if they get the same look if that is Kroft over Smith on the goal line, but then again you get a more polished receiver against smaller coverage guys maybe.

 

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks.  You might be right, but Josh also sorta seems to be looking at the LB #57 as the conflict defender.  When #57 over commits to the run he hits Knox cause its hat on a hat after that.

 

 

 Surprised they let us at the grown up table.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes he's a very good blocker and team leader. But I don't want him finding seams or running routes. That should be assigned to Kroft & Knox. Activate Kroft over Gilliam and let Lee block to his hearts content.

 

I agree with you on Kroft and Knox.    But Gilliam plays half or more of the ST snaps. 

Kroft, Knox and Smith play teams, too, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess not the same role.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I do enjoy that hapless is more optimistic about bates adjusting a route 

 

Hahaha Well.  Be honest now, aren't you?  That's not to say I think it's probable...just more possible.

 

Who was it who was talking about a reception Lee made in his first stint with the Bills where he had a blocker who asked "I had him blocked, why did you run OOB?  Why didn't you cut and go upfield?" and Smith replied "I Don't Cut".

 

I actually have a lot of sympathy for the "can we be done with Lee Smith?" thread and it would make me happy if we never saw Lee Smith running a route again, I'm just realistic to what the team appears to think of him.

 

At least Bates pals with Sweeney and is in the same room with Dawkins and Mongo and stuff, guys who think of themselves as slim fast WR in a "Big Man" suit.  That Croom video from Florida of Dawkins undressing McKenzie on successive pass plays is classic.

[LeGOATski]

Watching Lee Smith try to be a receiver is hilarious.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Watching Lee Smith try to be a receiver is hilarious.

 

It's all fun and games until we go 4 and out from the 1 and get skunked for points.

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's all fun and games until we go 4 and out from the 1 and get skunked for points.

Actually, it's still all fun and games. 😉