SoCal Deek Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: There's no question that the Super Bowl is the objective. I'm with you there. McBeane have stated that the objective is multiple Super Bowls. Where I believe you and I have differed before on this subject is that McBeane want sustained long-term success. They didn't want to get to the Super Bowl fast; they wanted to build a team that stays on top for a long time. They don't subscribe to your theory about getting a cheap quarterback (good QB on a rookie contract) racing to the top, then starting over. (Neither, by the way, do the Saints, the Packers, the Steelers, the Patriots, or the Chiefs.) It's all well and good if you have a different team-building philosophy, but it would be simpler if you just said that, rather than constantly suggesting that what McBeane have done is wrong. It's demonstrably NOT wrong. Maybe different from some other way they might have gone, but not wrong, at least not yet. If they have a competitive team for the next five years and win a Super Bowl along the way, they've been very successful. Shaw, it's only as good as the overall plan and execution. The Lions are the classic example of team that have their QB and have gone nowhere. The Falcons have theirs as well but got to one Super Bowl and now...not. It's been said before: there are a whole lot of things that have to come together to make it work, long term. So far the Bills appear to be heading in the right direction, but if they lose their playoff opener, there will be good reason to ask 'where are we really going'. Three first round losses in four years? Let's hope that's not the case. The next chapter of this story has yet to be written. 1
Logic Posted December 11, 2020 Author Posted December 11, 2020 19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) Oh hell they "got lucky" right out of the gate............they made the playoffs in 2017 with the worst point differential of any playoff team in 30 years!...........that is the very definition of a statistical outlier........ie 'lucky". 2) As far as getting to Allen..........it actually was a pretty clear path. It was your army fighting it's way to the the capital city and finding it abandoned and undefended kinda' easy. They had traded away a bunch of assets starting in 2017 to accumulate picks with the thought process that they were going to need a ton of picks to move up for a QB in 2018. As it turned out there was very little competition to get there. Teams were not willing to pay much to move up for the likes of Allen, Rosen or Jackson. Beane didn't even have to use the 2018 first round pick that they acquired in the Mahomes pick swap! What they really did exceptionally well was to take the QB with the highest ceiling. Better to swing and miss on a guy like Mahomes, Watson or Allen than someone with physical limitations to overcome like size or arm strength. That's not to be undersold........it used to be that you took the lower ceiling guy if they seemed more game ready. The 2018 Bills didn't fall into that trap they made the right decision on the most important decision this regime will probably ever make. 3) Beane has had a few big misses($50M for Star.....Ford/Metcalf being some very costly ones)........but he has had A LOT of medium and small face-plants which is why they are up against the cap already and haven't had to pay their QB. Things like cutting Quinton Spain right after you just signed him? There's been a lot of quickly wasted dollars as Beane has tried to throw enough options at the wall to hopefully get some that stick. 4) BB's WR judgment was maligned for a reason........his first two WR corps were among the very worst in the NFL and Bills team history.......seriously check out the WR corps from the Bills 2-14 teams versus Beane's choices. And meanwhile the former Bills WR's McBeane passed on were making noise on the field elsewhere. He totally whiffed on AJ Brown, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin in favor of Cody Ford in the 2018 draft and subsequently they now have a WR corps that is fronted by 3 free agents eating up over $30M in cap space and no TE's. That's not genius that's paying the market rate in free agency and trade to correct mistakes. Hopefully Gabe Davis is the start of Beane drafting good WR's. 5) Beane absolutely did not inherit one of the worst OL in league history..........he inherited an excellent group..........they had literally lead the NFL in rushing for the previous two seasons! Wood, Incognito, Glenn........excellent players. Unfortunately they hired an OC with an inflexible plan and then Beane foolishly extended the 31 year old Wood(who was going nowhere) a season ahead of his free agency in an attempt to get him to help pimp the process for McD. That ended up costing them a lot of cap space when Wood retired after the season. And then they strangely nickeled and dimed Incognito for some reason and he quit. Glenn was traded and he then signed some bad OL to replace all of those guys. He CREATED a horrendous OL for 2018. He's done an excellent job since but this is another example of his totally botching his first crack at something. 6) They literally pay more for DL talent than any team in the entire league so excellence is expected.......and they are getting that excellent play of late. I haven't been as critical of the 2020 DL as many. As an advocate for them sticking with more athletic DT's than continuing to throw good money at bad like they did with Star..........it's just another instance where I'm looking mighty right. 7) Bottom line is that they are at a point now where they SHOULD be at their peak as a roster.........cheap QB.......they've spent basically all of their painfully accumulated wad of cap space in free agency..........haven't *had* to make any money choices on any of their own draft picks yet in free agency(they signed Tre and Dawkins early).........and they've managed to assemble a very good roster........but it's not an overwhelming array of talent(and it could have been with less basic mistakes like drafting to patch holes in the 2018 draft etc.). After this season they need to start getting A LOT more efficient with personnel decisions..........and since they have winning and a franchise QB on their side they should be able to bargain shop a lot more efficiently than in the past. Courtesy of luck and actually having the balls to be the guys that took the quarterback they have bought themselves a bunch of time to learn from mistakes. I understand that my blunt assessment seems critical but the reality is that most GM's are hit and miss and it's like a DREAM COME TRUE to have these things fall into place despite that. They've actually crossed many of the barriers to success with little resistance. But where the rubber meets the road is beating Belichick and winning in the playoffs(and a SB). They are 1-8 in their first 9 high leverage opportunities so far........but they have the QB to turn that around. So basically.... Every "hit" they've had can be chalked up to "luck", but they are absolutely to blame for every "miss"? Got it. Talk about "excessive bloviation!" 2 1 3
ColoradoBills Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said: Shaw, it's only as good as the overall plan and execution. The Lions are the classic example of team that have their QB and have gone nowhere. The Falcons have theirs as well but got to one Super Bowl and now...not. It's been said before: there are a whole lot of things that have to come together to make it work, long term. So far the Bills appear to be heading in the right direction, but if they lose their playoff opener, there will be good reason to ask 'where are we really going'. Three first round losses in four years? Let's hope that's not the case. The next chapter of this story has yet to be written. Absolutely a possibility. If it happens you got only 3 real choices. 1. Burn it down and start over. 2. Keep trying the same thing and hope it works. 3. Self examine your approach with what you have and try another road. I put faith that Beane and McDermott go with the 3rd option.
JGMcD2 Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 (edited) I still don’t understand the playoff argument. Maybe a few of the all knowing savants on this board can help me out... McDermott and Beane are criticized for the “lucky” Bills team that went 9-7 and lost 10 - 3 on the road in the first round of playoffs. Maybe not criticized, but at the very least their accomplishment is written off by these savants. Then they improved, went 10-6 and had a lead late and various circumstances contributed to a collapse in the second half which lead to an over time loss. Sad moment. A moment that shouldn’t have happened. Oh, but wait, it seems to have been a moment that became a catalyst for this regime to look within and fix things that went wrong... which our fine savants LOVE to gloss over. This regime does this very well.. process, growth mindset, whatever you want to call it. You may laugh or not understand but the very best run organizations in and out of sports practice those things. So I ask the same question I’ve asked numerous times, if the Bills don’t make the playoffs in 2017 and only went last year, does the narrative from our fine savants change? Does it change to McBeane is bad because they’ve only been to the playoffs 1 time in 3 years rather than they’re lucky AND bad because they haven’t won a playoff game yet? You see because you can’t have it both ways... you can’t say they were lucky and shouldn’t have been there... but also punish them for not winning that game. In no way am I arguing that the expectation this year shouldn’t be winning at least 1 playoff game... but tighten up your logic for a second. EDIT: Just to make a final point, any person that has to assert to you that they are fair, subjective and even handed absolutely can’t be. If they were all of those things, people would recognize that on their own. Someone telling you all of those things immediately proves that they are NOT, because they’re attempting to rationalize their point of view as unbiased. Edited December 11, 2020 by JGMcD2 3
NewEra Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Are you sure you don't work for The Boston Herald?😄 Belichick is a PRIME example of overcoming a mountain of bad personnel decisions with great coaching and QB play. Seriously some of you would be suicidal if a big market media covered the Bills.........they aren't nearly as even handed as anything I've said in this thread. you just continue to harp on the negative things....over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. If you were a writer for a big market team, you’d be out of a job. excerpts like this: “7) Bottom line is that they are at a point now where they SHOULD be at their peak as a roster.........cheap QB.......they've spent basically all of their painfully accumulated wad of cap space in free agency..........haven't *had* to make any money choices on any of their own draft picks yet in free agency(they signed Tre and Dawkins early).........and they've managed to assemble a very good roster........but it's not an overwhelming array of talent(and it could have been with less basic mistakes like drafting to patch holes in the 2018 draft etc.).” yes, the SHOULD be at their peak as a roster.....as long as they did a good job. It’s as if every GM is good enough to peak their rosters at the right time. The jets drafted Darnold the same year as Allen. Are they peaked? No, they failed. Same with the ravens. Same with the cardinals. Same with the texans. Same with the bears. All of those teams drafted a QB same year or the previous years. Those GMs aren’t able to do what Beane did. The chiefs were able to peak their team at the right time. Beane did. He shouldn’t just be getting credit. He should be given a stand round of applause. For putting us in this position. But you act as if this is what Gms do. No. They don’t. The great ones do. Or I guess it’s just luck. It’s ok to point out the bad. I’m not mad at ya. I talk about the bad. When others write about the good, you’re quick to tell them that their wrong and point out all the bad. By reading your posts regarding this regime over their tenure, it seems to me that you don’t give them enough credit. That may not be the case, but that’s how you come across. I know that you have a vast knowledge of the game and this franchise, there’s no doubt. I respect your acumen. You don’t seem to respect anyone else’s, including Beane 2 3
BADOLBILZ Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: There's no question that the Super Bowl is the objective. I'm with you there. McBeane have stated that the objective is multiple Super Bowls. Where I believe you and I have differed before on this subject is that McBeane want sustained long-term success. They didn't want to get to the Super Bowl fast; they wanted to build a team that stays on top for a long time. They don't subscribe to your theory about getting a cheap quarterback (good QB on a rookie contract) racing to the top, then starting over. (Neither, by the way, do the Saints, the Packers, the Steelers, the Patriots, or the Chiefs.) It's all well and good if you have a different team-building philosophy, but it would be simpler if you just said that, rather than constantly suggesting that what McBeane have done is wrong. It's demonstrably NOT wrong. Maybe different from some other way they might have gone, but not wrong, at least not yet. If they have a competitive team for the next five years and win a Super Bowl along the way, they've been very successful. 1) Honestly.......what is with the ridiculous straw man arguments?😆 I've literally never said anything about just getting young QB's and starting over when their contract is finished. I get that some of you are frustrated that I am so blunt about the errors the organization has made.........but I assure you I've never suggested that Josh Allen should be a one contract and done QB with the Bills. And Shaw.........who are these teams that you think have this approach? Just because Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky are falling on their faces doesn't mean that was part of any plan. Everyone wants a QB who plays and dominates for 15+ years. 2) McBeane have CHANGED their philosophies on team building numerous times. Went with Dennison......failed.......went with a very different system in Daboll. Thought big WR's were the solution.......failed......and did a 180 to smaller, faster WR's who get open quicker. The list goes on. And what I really like is that the corrections they've made are in tune with what I thought they should have done in the first place. Now I want to see Edmunds used more on the edge........and we actually got a peek at that Sunday. And I've been an advocate of using more active players at the 1 tech.........and they are doing that and that too is yielding results now. I don't really see any major team-building philosophy discrepancy. 1
machine gun kelly Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 Beane gave a nice interview on MTC today.
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 54 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Shaw, it's only as good as the overall plan and execution. The Lions are the classic example of team that have their QB and have gone nowhere. The Falcons have theirs as well but got to one Super Bowl and now...not. It's been said before: there are a whole lot of things that have to come together to make it work, long term. So far the Bills appear to be heading in the right direction, but if they lose their playoff opener, there will be good reason to ask 'where are we really going'. Three first round losses in four years? Let's hope that's not the case. The next chapter of this story has yet to be written. If they lose in the first round of the playoffs this year, I'm not too worried, yet. The first time around, they were fortunate to be in the playoffs at all. I didn't expect a win. Last year was for all intents and purposes their first playoff visit with this team. (2017 was holdovers.) They actually played pretty well, but together some great play at the end of the game, but they weren't good enough to win. Allen played like a rookie. That game was for learning lessons. So if they lose in the first game this year, I'll think that's two in a row, and this will be the first year that will be a true disappointment that they didn't move on. So for me, it won't be time to ask questions. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, NewEra said: It’s ok to point out the bad. I’m not mad at ya. I talk about the bad. When others write about the good, you’re quick to tell them that their wrong and point out all the bad. By reading your posts regarding this regime over their tenure, it seems to me that you don’t give them enough credit. That may not be the case, but that’s how you come across. I know that you have a vast knowledge of the game and this franchise, there’s no doubt. I respect your acumen. You don’t seem to respect anyone else’s, including Beane I'm quick to counter extreme positions. I'm very much in the middle being as objective as possible...........and that really inflames unabashed homers who fluctuate from one extreme to another over the past 20 years. So happens that right now many homers are counting their chickens before the regime has even hatched a single command performance in any of 9 games played against their chief division rival or in the playoffs............so the content I am responding to is extremely out of balance with the reality. The journey is the reward.......being in a hurry to crown them runs contrary to that, IMO. It's been said the McBeane are self critical and driven to improve...........if they are that way why should the fanbase "just be happy" with modest success? Edited December 11, 2020 by BADOLBILZ 1
JGMcD2 Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) Honestly.......what is with the ridiculous straw man arguments?😆 I've literally never said anything about just getting young QB's and starting over when their contract is finished. I get that some of you are frustrated that I am so blunt about the errors the organization has made.........but I assure you I've never suggested that Josh Allen should be a one contract and done QB with the Bills. And Shaw.........who are these teams that you think have this approach? Just because Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky are falling on their faces doesn't mean that was part of any plan. Everyone wants a QB who plays and dominates for 15+ years. 2) McBeane have CHANGED their philosophies on team building numerous times. Went with Dennison......failed.......went with a very different system in Daboll. Thought big WR's were the solution.......failed......and did a 180 to smaller, faster WR's who get open quicker. The list goes on. And what I really like is that the corrections they've made are in tune with what I thought they should have done in the first place. Now I want to see Edmunds used more on the edge........and we actually got a peek at that Sunday. And I've been an advocate of using more active players at the 1 tech.........and they are doing that and that too is yielding results now. I don't really see any major team-building philosophy discrepancy. Is there anything you’ve actually ever been wrong about? If you’re this perfect, I’ll put in a word with some friends across the 4 major sports...
WideNine Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Are you sure you don't work for The Boston Herald?😄 Belichick is a PRIME example of overcoming a mountain of bad personnel decisions with great coaching and QB play. Seriously some of you would be suicidal if a big market media covered the Bills.........they aren't nearly as even handed as anything I've said in this thread. Have to agree with you. Considering the near constant exodus of staff, rare access to 1st round blue-chip talent, prescriptive management of cap and personnel - finding bargain vets and signing to short-term deals to plug holes while stock-piling mid-round draft picks for players that they choose to not resign to large long-term cap-limiting deals. Having that franchise QB that you can continue to build around certainly was a factor in their success, but there are no teams out there that managed to stay as competitive as long as the NE Patriots over this era of free-agency. They built both a pass-happy team, and when needed built a power-run team. I do not like the man, but I have to admire how Belichick has been able to craft game plans and get the most out of the pieces at his disposal over the years. There is a reason that GM's like Beane have studied the NE blueprint to try to forge a path towards sustainable success for our own Bills org. Saying all that, I have to still admit that I hate them for a lot of other reasons not the least being how long they have had their foot on our team's throat. It feels good to watch them slide down the AFC standings and hopefully we can scatter their post-season ashes to the wind soon. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I'm quick to counter extreme positions. I'm very much in the middle being as objective as possible I don't think that's the common perception here, but that's just my perception and I could be wrong I'll just speak for myself using the words of Inigo Montoya: ""You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means" That there are extreme positions here, on both ends of the spectrum, is inarguable. 3
NewEra Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) Honestly.......what is with the ridiculous straw man arguments?😆 I've literally never said anything about just getting young QB's and starting over when their contract is finished. I get that some of you are frustrated that I am so blunt about the errors the organization has made.........but I assure you I've never suggested that Josh Allen should be a one contract and done QB with the Bills. And Shaw.........who are these teams that you think have this approach? Just because Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky are falling on their faces doesn't mean that was part of any plan. Everyone wants a QB who plays and dominates for 15+ years. 2) McBeane have CHANGED their philosophies on team building numerous times. Went with Dennison......failed.......went with a very different system in Daboll. Thought big WR's were the solution.......failed......and did a 180 to smaller, faster WR's who get open quicker. The list goes on. And what I really like is that the corrections they've made are in tune with what I thought they should have done in the first place. Now I want to see Edmunds used more on the edge........and we actually got a peek at that Sunday. And I've been an advocate of using more active players at the 1 tech.........and they are doing that and that too is yielding results now. I don't really see any major team-building philosophy discrepancy. I’ve been wondering how they’ve overcome what was a painful few weeks of getting destroyed up the middle. they started off with Ed and Jefferson at DT and have moved to pairing Ed and Butler together, while Jefferson plays mostly with phillips and Zimmer iirc. hasnt Ed been playing the 1tech all season? I noticed that he was the majority of the time when he was playing with Jefferson. Butler is way bigger than both Ed and Jefferson and I figured he’d be playing the 1tech, but I see Ed facing double teams way more often than butler. That being said, isn’t it up to the offensive line/offensive play caller to decide who gets the double team, regardless of who is lined up where? what are we doing differently with our DTs now, compared to earlier in the season?
SoCal Deek Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: If they lose in the first round of the playoffs this year, I'm not too worried, yet. The first time around, they were fortunate to be in the playoffs at all. I didn't expect a win. Last year was for all intents and purposes their first playoff visit with this team. (2017 was holdovers.) They actually played pretty well, but together some great play at the end of the game, but they weren't good enough to win. Allen played like a rookie. That game was for learning lessons. So if they lose in the first game this year, I'll think that's two in a row, and this will be the first year that will be a true disappointment that they didn't move on. So for me, it won't be time to ask questions. Guys like you and me have been watching this team for decades. But there are going to be many who'll get pretty restless. Reputations get locked in pretty easily. Few will be able to explain away the 2017 Team like you do. It'll just be seen as three losses out of four. I really hope that doesn't happen, and that we can get a win. It'll be yet another monkey off our back, and another check mark checked.
BADOLBILZ Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Is there anything you’ve actually ever been wrong about? If you’re this perfect, I’ll put in a word with some friends across the 4 major sports... Sure but very rarely on TSW. The amount of hotly contested takes of import that I've been spot on about on this site over the past 22 years even surprises me. I'm the GOAT in that regard here and it's not even close. As I've told @GunnerBill though.......the key to being right is not trying to have some kind of take on everything.......it's having your strong public takes on things that you have warranted confidence in. When you try to have a take on everything your winning % falls precipitously and you run the risk of being actual-NFL-GM-level-right..........which is basically a flip of the coin for the most part. 1
JGMcD2 Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't think that's the common perception here, but that's just my perception and I could be wrong I'll just speak for myself using the words of Inigo Montoya: ""You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means" That there are extreme positions here, on both ends of the spectrum, is inarguable. Humility is an amazing thing. People keep telling him otherwise, but he is always right without exception. You can have as much intelligence as you want, and I think @BADOLBILZ is very intelligent... but the holier than thou gimmick really turns people off. Maybe someone should look inward and try another approach? 1
NewEra Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I'm quick to counter extreme positions. I'm very much in the middle being as objective as possible...........and that really inflames unabashed homers who fluctuate from one extreme to another over the past 20 years. So happens that right now many homers are counting their chickens before the regime has even hatched a single command performance in any of 9 games played against their chief division rival or in the playoffs............so the content I am responding to is extremely out of balance with the reality. The journey is the reward.......being in a hurry to crown them runs contrary to that, IMO. It's been said the McBeane are self critical and driven to improve...........if they are that way why should the fanbase "just be happy" with modest success? I’m not an unabashed homer (think what you like) yet I feel this way about your posts. “just be happy”?? Who said that. I am happy that our search for a qb is likely over for another 12+ years. I’m happy that our search for a good HC and GM is over for the near future. I’m happy that our franchise, that had been a joke for 20+ years, is now looking to be a contender for the next decade+. I AM enjoying this journey and this journey is making me happy. Why wouldn’t they? That doesn’t mean the journey is over. It’s just the beginning. I won’t be truly happy until we win a super bowl. That’s just the part of the journey we haven’t experienced yet. But why not be happy until we do? 2
ColoradoBills Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 LOL. This thread was started by good news for Buffalo Bills fans. Actually I am willing to bet that every organization in the league thinks that the extension signed by Brandon Beane was a great thing for the Buffalo Bills. Yet people allow an albeit "intelligent" poster to derail your moment with his one true love........making Bills fans miserable. I for one will bow out of this thread with a "tip-of-my-hat" to Brandon Beane and move on like he said to the 4 game schedule left. 2 1
RochesterLifer Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: You can have as much intelligence as you want, and I think @BADOLBILZ is very intelligent. I haven’t seen evidence of that. An easy thing to do, intellectually, is to take a rigid, self-righteous stand, congratulating one’s self and insulting anyone who challenges. That behavior also reveals insecurity. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted December 11, 2020 Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Humility is an amazing thing. You see humility would be a good approach for the Bills fanbase as we hopefully enter an era of playoff success. That's obviously NOT gonna' happen. Hurt people hurt people. It's part of the reason we have such backlash against me basically saying "I approve of Beane being extended but he needs to do better in some regards". This is not a harsh take in anything less than a battered fan environment. But hurt people ALSO make good TV..........so Bills fans will at least be fun for the nation to watch climb the SB mountain again. 1
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