Bills could play entire AFC playoffs at home

[QLBillsFan]

2 hours ago, FUTURIST said:

If the Bills run the table and finish 13-3 they are very likely to get the #2 seed.  Pittsburgh is likely to finish 13-3 and lose the head to head to the Bills. 

 

The #1 Chiefs will likely get a team like Cleveland or Tennessee in their opening game.  Would anyone be shocked to see Cleveland beat the Chiefs?

 

Browns at Buffalo for the AFC Championship.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

 

Go Bills.

Yes I would be shocked if the Chiefs lost in round one. Is it possible, sure. Browns can’t score enough and Titans are struggling with pass D based on average back 4 and no pass rush. Most likely Bills have one home game. Just my thoughts. 

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Yes I would be shocked if the Chiefs lost in round one. Is it possible, sure. Browns can’t score enough and Titans are struggling with pass D based on average back 4 and no pass rush. Most likely Bills have one home game. Just my thoughts. 

The Browns are one of those teams that can suck one week but be the best team in the league the next. It's part of the reason I don't prefer to face them in the playoffs. They could just go off and beat anyone.

 

But the most likely outcome is for them to struggle and have everyone questioning whether or not they are actually a good team.

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, FUTURIST said:

 

I have the following

 

 

Chiefs #1  BYE

Bills #2 vs Raiders #7  (BILLS WIN)

Steelers #3 vs Colts #6 (STEELERS WIN)

Titans #4 vs Browns #5 (BROWNS WIN)

 

Chiefs #1 vs Browns #5 (BROWNS WIN)

Bills #2 vs Steelers #3 (BILLS WIN)

 

Bills #2 vs Browns #5 (BILLS WIN)

 

 

 

You left one off.

Bills # 1 vs Packers #1 (BILLS WIN)

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, foreboding said:

I don't see the Chiefs losing again until we beat them in the AFC Championship game at their place, but that's ok.

Even the Saints game?

[bigK14094]

With no fans allowed, the home field advantage is substantially less imho.  Yes, the team doesn't have to travel, and can sleep in their own beds.  But, that's about it.  So, I don't think the home field means much as the Bills Mafia will not be present in Orchard Park.

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Let’s play the next 4 games and see.  Take them one at a time.  

 

 

This^^^^

[ogham26]

would anyone be shocked to see the browns beat the chiefs???????????????????  yes absolutely the chiefs would be heavy favorites in this hypothetical matchup.  it would be a huge upset. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh. Disagree here. The 2019 Bills were a team that lacked offensive fire power and relied on a defense to carry their team to victory.... and they never really beat anyone last season. 

 

Browns are a well balanced team that has beaten some very good AFC teams(Colts, Titans). 

 

I think they can win a game or two in the playoffs. Super Bowl? No. 

This was before the Titans game who play incredibly inconsistent.  The Titans got dismantled by the Bengals, taken to OT vs the Texans and squeaked out wins vs the Jags, Broncos and Vikings.  They're out of conference schedule is the NFC East.  

 

Against teams in the playoff hunt or sitting in a spot, they are averaging 21.5 ppg while giving up 33.5 (Colts, Ravens/Titans/Steelers).  In order for them to get to the AFC championship game like you suggest they can....they'll either have to play the Chiefs or Steelers.  That isn't happening.  Pittsburgh to them was like the Brady led Patriots for them.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimingraham/2020/12/05/is-this-the-week-the-cleveland-browns-get-a-signature-win/?sh=29a9f27f7b4d

 

Cleveland’s eight wins have come against seven teams who have a combined winning percentage of .190 (24-51-2): Cincinnati (twice), Washington, Dallas, Indianapolis, Houston, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville.

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

It's definitely as crazy as it sounds. While none of your individual scenarios are that ridiculous the idea that all of that would happen is. 

 

I'd say there's about a 1% chance that the Bills host the AFC Championship game. And more like 0.01% chance that we'd host the Browns. 

I played with the playoff spots a few days ago and at that moment in time we would have hosted the Browns in Game 1 of the playoffs.  But it's all moving and shifting all the time, and it's too early to start "scheming" the playoff road IMO.

 

Will be fascinating to see how it all falls together in the last week or 2 of the season, though.

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

20 minutes ago, MJS said:

Just throwing out probabilities, huh?

 

I say there is a 62.5% chance of that happening. Beat that!

 

Not a lot of analysis going on in the OP so I followed those guidelines. 

 

To elaborate a bit on my reasoning: 

 

The Bills have two basic paths to hosting an AFC Championship game. We can get the #1 seed and win our first playoff game (after week 1 bye). Or we make the playoffs as a lower seed, win two playoff games, AND have all higher seeds than us lose. 

 

Given that the Chiefs are 2 games up on us, and also have the tiebreaker it's highly unlikely that we end up with the #1 seed. We'd need to get 3 more wins than the Chiefs do in the final 4 games. We'd also have to pass the Steelers, who we are 2 games back on. That's not as unlikely given that we play them this week and would have the tiebreak and only 1 game back if we win. Even after that we'd still have to win our first playoff game to host the AFCCG. For us to host the Browns, the Browns would need to qualify for the playoffs and then win 2 playoff games. The odds of that are so low it's not worth mentioning. 

 

There's a lot of potential paths for the Bills to host the AFCCG as a 2-6 seed, but they all boil down to Bills winning consecutive playoff games, AND to have EVERY higher rated seed lose. Pretty slim odds. My guess of 1% might've been a little pessimistic, but anything over 5% is just a pipe dream. 

 

Now if we're talking the chance that the Bills MAKE the championship game? I think that's more like 20%. 

[BornAgainBillsFan]

The only way the Browns are beating the Chiefs is if Reid, Bienemy, and the entire Chiefs starting offense gets Covid two days before the game.

 

The Browns nearly blew a 31 point lead to the Titans this past weekend. I know that the Browns took their foot off the gas, but you do that against the Chiefs and Mahomes scores 60!

[thenorthremembers]

Do people really think its likely the Browns beat the Chiefs? 

[ngbills]

All starts with beating PIT and then the conversation really starts. Assuming that happens and winning out to go 13-3 you would then need:

 

PIT to lose one more vs CIN, IND or CLE - very possible

CLE if they beat PIT and win out they are also 13-3

KC if they lose 2 of 4 vs MIA, NO, ATL and LAC they are 13-3

 

So there could be 4 teams all 13-3 entering the playoffs. Per ESPN playoff machine the Bills get #1 seed in this scenario. Played with it a bit and if Bills/CLE/KC are 13-3 then Bills get #2 and KC #1. If Bills/PIT/KC are 13-3 then Bills get #1 seed. 

 

 

[Steptide]

It'll be interesting to see how everything pans out. Even if we clinch a playoff spot, the bills may need to play their starters through week 17 based on seeding. If we win the division though and the last game is meaningless, I'm sure they rest starters 

[Zerovoltz]

4 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Chiefs lose to Saints and either Dolphins or Chargers, bills win out, and Steelers drop to Cleveland or Indy and we’re the 1. 

 

KC holds a head to head tiebreaker on the Bills....so no...this scenario would not make you the 1 seed.  You'd need to beat the Steelers, and finshed tied or better with them...and also a half or full game in front of KC.  Mathematically possible.  Realistically, not possible.

 

3 hours ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

Even the Saints game?

 

KC is favored by 3 already in early lines set in Vegas.

 

 

Also....let me leave you with a couple of Mahomes stats.

 

In his career thus far, Patrick Mahomes has NEVER walked off the field after 4 quarters, losing in a playoff game.

 

The Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes are 2-0 in playoff games in wich the OPPOSING team blocked a punt and returned it for a TD.

[BillsfaninSB]

So Mahommes is getting COVID during the playoffs?

[whatdrought]

27 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

KC holds a head to head tiebreaker on the Bills....so no...this scenario would not make you the 1 seed.  You'd need to beat the Steelers, and finshed tied or better with them...and also a half or full game in front of KC.  Mathematically possible.  Realistically, not possible.

 

 

KC is favored by 3 already in early lines set in Vegas.

 

 

Also....let me leave you with a couple of Mahomes stats.

 

In his career thus far, Patrick Mahomes has NEVER walked off the field after 4 quarters, losing in a playoff game.

 

The Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes are 2-0 in playoff games in wich the OPPOSING team blocked a punt and returned it for a TD.

Wrong. A three way tie bypasses head to head and goes to secondary tie breaks. Go look at ESPN.

 

Mind you- I’m not saying it’s overly likely, but the path to that is no less crazy than it was for you guys to get the 2 last year.

Edited December 10, 2020 by whatdrought

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Wrong. A three way tie bypasses head to head and goes to secondary tie breaks. Go look at ESPN.

Poor 2017 Chargers.  We'll take it though.

[Doc Brown]

I see the WC's as Browns, Colts, and Ravens.  Miami and Vegas fold down the stretch.  This is how I see it.

 

(1) Chiefs

(2) Steelers vs. (7) Ravens

(3) Bills vs. (6) Colts

(4) Titans vs. (5) Browns

 

There's a good chance the Ravens can upset the Steelers and an outside chance the Ravens then beat the Chiefs.  That's pry a more realistic path to us playing three home games.  We'll get the Colts, Titans/Browns, and then the Ravens.  Far fetched but not impossible.

[Greg S]

Hopefully the football weekend gets started on a good note tonight. Go Rams. I am surprised there isn't a Pats - Rams GD thread.