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Posted

I spent some time playing with espn's playoff machine and it looks likely that if we win this week AND Buffalo, KC and Pitt end the year tied at 12 and 4 or 13 and 3, the Bills would earn homefield advantage and a bye with the one seed in the playoffs. It looks like we woukd win alot of the potential three way tie breakers. If you're like me and obsessing about the Bill's chances, please check my work! 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

 

Posted
  On 12/13/2020 at 8:35 AM, mykidsdad said:

I spent some time playing with espn's playoff machine and it looks likely that if we win this week AND Buffalo, KC and Pitt end the year tied at 12 and 4 or 13 and 3, the Bills would earn homefield advantage and a bye with the one seed in the playoffs. It looks like we woukd win alot of the potential three way tie breakers. If you're like me and obsessing about the Bill's chances, please check my work! 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

 

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I went through this a lot as well 🤣 if you're rooting for the 1 seed three way tie scenario Miami has to beat kc tomorrow and that would be a terrifying couple hour wait for us before we hopefully win our game too lol

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Posted

Miami and the Saints beating KC?  Not likely.  The Chargers will never beat the Chiefs, and probably not the Fins.  The Steelers have us, but they then have the Bengals, Colts, and Browns.  I seriously doubt with this schedule we get the #1 seed.  The best we could hope fir is the #2 assuming the Steelers go on a skid and lose to us and the Colts, and Browns.  I don’t see it happening.
 

There is no advantage to #2 given we can beat any of the wildcard teams.  I’m more concerned we finish strong with momentum, and no matter the seeding the Bills starters play at least the first half of the Fins game (meaning the seeding won’t change, and they treat it like a bye).  

Posted
  On 12/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

It's definitely as crazy as it sounds. While none of your individual scenarios are that ridiculous the idea that all of that would happen is. 

 

I'd say there's about a 1% chance that the Bills host the AFC Championship game. And more like 0.01% chance that we'd host the Browns. 

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So you’re telling me there’s a chance......allllllll riiiiight!!!!!

Posted
  On 12/13/2020 at 3:03 PM, BigDingus said:

 

I would absolutely, 100% be shocked to see that. Everything else you said though, I'm all good with :)

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If you watched the Chiefs last week against Denver or this week against the Dolphins you can see the Chiefs are very beatable.

Posted

The 2nd seed is a possibility. Tonight would go along way to make that happen. It avoids us going to KC until the AFC champ game. Also despite the fact it could slow JA down a bit, the thought of going to frigid Buffalo in January to face JA is bit daunting. 

Posted

Now we need to win out and need the chiefs to lose to the saints and chargers and the steelers to finish 12-4 to get the one seed.  Silver lining for those who care about season stats and records and such is I can't see our week 17 game against the dolphins not having huge implications on playoff seeding regardless of if we have clinched the division or not

Could still reasonably end up anywhere between the 2 and 4 seed.  1 seed is possible but very unlikely as kc will have us in conference record if they lose to the Falcons and saints and beat the chargers.  

Posted
  On 12/14/2020 at 9:17 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Now we need to win out and need the chiefs to lose to the saints and chargers and the steelers to finish 12-4 to get the one seed.  Silver lining for those who care about season stats and records and such is I can't see our week 17 game against the dolphins not having huge implications on playoff seeding regardless of if we have clinched the division or not

Could still reasonably end up anywhere between the 2 and 4 seed.  1 seed is possible but very unlikely as kc will have us in conference record if they lose to the Falcons and saints and beat the chargers.  

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My book is offering 150/1 that the Bills finish with the No 1 seed...

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Posted
  On 12/14/2020 at 9:31 PM, Aussie Joe said:

 

My book is offering 150/1 that the Bills finish with the No 1 seed...

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Sounds about right...you gonna take it? 😁 I feel pretty good about us winning out but chiefs dropping those specific two games is a stretch.  On top of that it has to be a three way tie with the chiefs and steelers at 13-3...if the steelers drop 2 out of 3 and finish 12-4 we lose the head to head with the chiefs

Posted
  On 12/14/2020 at 9:34 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Sounds about right...you gonna take it? 😁 I feel pretty good about us winning out but chiefs dropping those specific two games is a stretch.  On top of that it has to be a three way tie with the chiefs and steelers at 13-3...if the steelers drop 2 out of 3 and finish 12-4 we lose the head to head with the chiefs

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Hah.. too may things need to happen..

 

I also gotta feeling that the Bills will drop a game on the run home..

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