Scouting The Pittsburgh Steelers

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

First off, what a dominating win in front of a national audience on MNF. I thought we outplayed and outcoached the 49ers in all three phases of the game and the score line flattered San Fran in the end. Josh Allen consistently roasted a strong and intelligent SF back seven in both zone and man coverage, extended plays with his legs, and made zero significant mistakes. Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley were un-coverable and their elite route running is a joy to watch. The defense stood tall, gang tackled, and took the ball away at big moments in the game. Lastly, Sean McDermott continues to impress me with his aggressiveness and gameday management. A complete team win to get to 9-3 and end another much-discussed losing streak from the drought years on MNF. 

 

Looking ahead, we're at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers who are coming off their first loss to the Washington Football Team (the WFT name is still hilarious LOL). Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Steelers' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

November 22nd- Week 11 Win AT Jacksonville (the Jaguars had the 25th ranked offense, 31st ranked defense, and 13th ranked special teams after Week 11, current record: 1-11) by a score of 27-3:

• Ben Roethlisberger- 32/46 for 267 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Got away with a potential pick-six that hit the Jags FS Jarrod Wilson in both hands early on, it looked like Ben locked onto Eric Ebron and never saw Wilson jump the route. Started to heat up in the 2nd quarter and showed beautiful touch on the TD pass to Claypool. The passing game seemed to focus almost exclusively on throws outside the hashmarks, I didn't notice many targets to the middle of the field at all. Threw an INT in the end zone to end the first half, wasting an FG opportunity. Found Ebron streaking up the seam for the second TD late. JuJu and James Washington only had a combined 5 catches for 31 yards which surprised me.
• Steelers Running Game- James Conner (89 yards and 6.8 YPC) was able to break some runs to the outsides and had an excellent misdirection run to pick up a 3rd-and-10. Snell was used sparingly mostly near the goal line (15 yards and 2.1 YPC with a TD). Similar to the above, the Steelers appeared to run off tackle and didn't have success running inside. 
• Chase Claypool- 59 yards and 1 TD. Got a step on the Jags CB and hauled in the long TD pass in the 2nd. Drew two big PI calls as well on deep shots. I have to say the Jags coverage and CB matchups on Claypool were beyond terrible though, it was as if they hadn't watched any game tape on him at all. 
• Diontae Johnson- 12 catches for 111 yards. Showed amazing concentration and coordination to bring in a tipped pass down to the one yard line. An underrated weapon who keeps the chains moving.
• Eric Ebron- his struggle with drops continued early, but made a great TD catch down the seam late in the game to really put it away. 
• Steelers Run Defense- Mostly a solid effort, but missed some tackles and were gashed for a few long runs by James Robinson (73 yards and 4.3 YPC) who is a sneaky awesome rookie. 
• Steelers Pass Defense- Steelers were very fortunate to face Jake Luton (16/37 for 151 yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs) in just his third career start rather than 'MinshewMagic'. Dupree (out for the year) was so quick off the ball and made a great play batting down a pass on 3rd down to kill a Jags drive in the 1st. Steelers brought an effective CB blitz with Mike Hilton off of TJ Watt's side that hurried Luton into a bad throw. Luton drove the Jags down to the red zone just before halftime, but his pass was batted up into the air and picked off by Minkah Fitzpatrick (who else? I've never seen a player who just always seems to be in exactly the right place for a batted pass so frequently). Luton then sky-ed a pass over the middle that was easily picked by Terrell 'Second Best' Edmunds, underthrew another INT to Edmunds in the 4th (nice play/higher level of difficulty on this one), and bombed a fourth and final INT on another overthrow to Fitzpatrick. It's safe to say that Luton's footwork was an absolute dumpster fire as he wasn't even under that much pressure on those throws. Dupree and Tuitt both got a sack, Watt was surprisingly kept rather quiet. 
• Miscellaneous- Jacksonville drove down the field and kicked a FG on their very first possession to go up 3-0...and then didn't score again. Weird, wonder how many times that's ever happened before. Jacksonville then attempted an onside kick (by WR Keelan Cole no less) which the Steelers recovered. Boswell missed his first kick of the game and has been uncharacteristically streaky this season. Staying with special teams, it's hard to believe after his shaky hands with the Bills, but Ray Ray McCloud is Pittsburgh's primary KR/PR. Showed some questionable decision-making on his punt returns. The Steelers seemed to be stuck in 3rd-and-long a lot, but the Jags defense allowed them to convert too often. Committed 6 penalties for 42 yards. 

 

 

December 2nd- Week 12 Win at Home vs Baltimore (the Ravens had the 24th ranked offense, 7th ranked defense, and 2nd ranked special teams after Week 12, current record: 7-5) by a score of 19-14:

• Ben Roethlisberger- 36/51 for 266 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Threw an INT in the end zone on their first drive on 4th down. Made a nice throw to the corner of the end zone to hit JuJu in the 4th. Again appeared to take profits on the outside and aside from a few targets to Ebron, ignored the middle of the field. Wasn't sacked at all using a quick release, but this is still impressive given the talent in Baltimore's front seven. 
• Steelers Running Game- No James Conner in this game as he was added to the COVID list. Snell (60 yards and 3.8 YPC) showed great second effort on some key runs and Tomlin trusted him to pick up the first downs on the final drive. Maybe his best game of the year. 
• Diontae Johnson- 8 catches for 46 yards. Slower day by his standards, but made some clutch receptions on third down. 
• JuJu Smith-Schuster- dropped at least 2 balls in the first half, but pulled off a Derrick Henry-esque stiff-arm on a nice catch and run late to remind everyone how strong he is. Caught the would-be game-winning TD pass on a good mesh route later in that same drive. 
• Eric Ebron- 7 catches for 54 yards. Had an excellent contested catch in the first half, but again lost concentration on another big drop in the red zone. 
• Steelers Run Defense- Stacked the box with 8 defenders and held the Ravens to 10 first downs because they didn't have to respect the Raven's air attack. Put in a really strong shift limiting Baltimore's RBs, but were susceptible to designed QB runs and scrambles by RGIII (68 yards and 9.7 YPC) who had his longest run since his rookie year and McSorley showed off his wheels too. The Steelers did an excellent job of forcing the Ravens into some unfavorable 3rd-and-long situations throughout the game. 
• Steelers Pass Defense- For the second week in a row, Pittsburgh lucked out against two back up QBs in Robert Griffin III (7/12 for 33 yards and 1 INT) and Trace McSorley (2/6 for 77 yards and 1 TD). Joe Haden successfully baited RGIII the way Richard Sherman was trying to bait Josh on MNF and jumped Hollywood Brown's dig route for an early pick-six. Had a huge pass break up to prevent a Ravens TD with :00 on the clock to end the first half. TJ Watt got a couple free runs at the QB and predictably sacked RGIII twice (the Bills better not let this happen!). Got beat on a late 70 yard TD pass/catch from McSorley to Brown. Cam Heyward got a sack as well. 
• Miscellaneous- Recovered a fumble from an untouched botched handoff by RGIII at Baltimore's 20 yard line 3 minutes into the game, but couldn't turn it into points. McCloud was hit and fumbled on his first punt return, giving the Ravens the ball on the ten yard line and resulting in a Gus Edwards TD. Boswell missed the extra point on the Haden TD and wound up on the injury report with a hip ailment after this game. 

 

 

December 7th - Week 13 Loss at Home to Washington (the Football Team had the 28th ranked offense, 4th ranked defense, and the 17th ranked special teams after Week 13, current record: 5-7) by a score of 23-17:

• Ben Roethlisberger- 33/53 for 305 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Nearly picked in the 4th throwing into triple coverage, he seems to be locking onto guys a bit more than in the past. Threw 2 nice TDs and took some shots to Claypool which resulted in some chunk plays. With the game on the line, Montez Sweat batted a pass up in the air that was intercepted by Jon Bostic, sealing the Steelers' first loss. Wasn't sacked again and seems to be releasing the ball really quickly as others have mentioned in the game week thread. 
• Steelers Running Game- No James Conner in this game as he was still on the COVID list. Snell got stuffed on 4th-and-goal from the one yard line and the Steelers three RBs combined for just 21 rushing yards (!!!!). There is a big drop off after Connor in terms of talent at the RB position. 
• Chase Claypool- Got separation to haul in a deep pass down to the five yard line that should have resulted in points. Drew another significant PI call as he's just too fast and physical for most CBs to track in single coverage. 
• Diontae Johnson- 8 catches for 71 yards and 1 TD. Ran a nice corner route to beat Kendall Fuller for the touchdown. Is actually leading the league with 10 drops though. 
• James Washington- after a previous two games in which he was very quiet, Washington showed what a vertical threat he can be (80 yards and 1 TD). 
• JuJu Smith-Schuster- another drop on 3rd down that ended Pittsburgh's first drive. Safety valve for Big Ben once the game was tied in the 4th and helped pick up multiple first downs. 
• Steelers Run Defense- Did a great job stuffing a jet sweep on 4th-and-1. After Gibson's injury, WFT essentially abandoned the run game and were held to 1.6 YPC when they did run. 
• Steelers Pass Defense- For the first time in 3 games, Pittsburgh had to face the opposing team's ideal starting QB and it showed. Alex Smith didn't do anything mind-blowing, but took care of the ball and managed the game well (31/46 for 296 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs and good for him by the way, great story and comeback). Robert Spillane came free on a delayed blitz and sacked Smith, Watt and Tuitt got a sack each as well. Old friend Logan Thomas (9 catches for 98 yards and 1 TD) seemed to get loose and cause problems for Pitt's LBs and safeties. Cam Sims (5 catches for 92 yards) caused a lot of trouble after the catch as well. The Steelers did a great job shutting down McLaurin to be fair, holding him to 14 yards. 
• Miscellaneous- The Washing Football team lost Antonio Gibson, their stud rookie RB, to an early injury and were still able to win. Pittsburgh committed 6 penalties for 45 yards. 

 

 

December 14th - Week 14 Pittsburgh Steelers (current record: 11-1, 17th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 12th ranked special teams after Week 13) Away To The  Buffalo Bills (current record: 9-3, 7th ranked offense, 16th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams after Week 13)

• Bills On Offense- Pittsburgh is really stout up the middle in the run game, but have been prone to outside runs and running QBs. The Bills need to continue to take good care of the ball and win the turnover battle as Pittsburgh (led by human ball magnet Minkah Fitzpatrick) is so opportunistic and seem to make a play on every fumble and batted pass (they have benefited from some serious luck/bad play by the opposing team in this department IMO but still). As other posters have astutely pointed out, Pittsburgh has been extremely fortunate in facing some of the league's worst QBs and back ups and I believe the Bills should be able to win through the air. Joe Haden is in concussion protocol and he is far and away their best CB. No one on their roster can hang with Diggs even at full strength, but if he can't go and Steven Nelson is a bit rusty coming off his knee injury, the Steelers will have a big problem covering our receiving weapons. I also believe Beasley and Knox could have success in this game based on what I've seen particularly over the middle. The losses of Robert Spillane and especially Bud Dupree should hopefully allow us to chip and double TJ Watt limiting his impact on the game and give Allen the time to pick apart the Steelers' secondary. 

 

• Bills On Defense- Big Ben is getting up there in age and hits taken, but he still has some great weapons to throw to. Chase Claypool (a guy I pounded the table really hard for in the draft) looks like a potential star and is the main big play threat. Diontae Johnson is an underrated player who makes that offense tick. That's before we even get to JuJu and Washington who are both capable of big games and have just been a bit inconsistent lately. Combined with Eric Ebron, that's a versatile arsenal of receiving weapons, but in some ways, I think our strengths on defense match up well with their guys and Pittsburgh lacks elite speed (put another way, I think our defense matches up better against their offense than the one we just faced in San Francisco even though Big Ben >>> Nick Mullins). Pittsburgh has been plagued with drops recently though. Their run game has been downright awful recently, but should get a big boost getting James Conner and perhaps Maurkice Pouncey back this week. If the defense can continue their form that they've shown against the Chargers and 49ers, I think we can limit a lot of what Pittsburgh wants to do. 

 

• On Special Teams- McCloud is a liability in the kick and punt return game and hopefully we can force a turnover here. Boswell is a doubt for this game with his hip injury. The stats show that the Bills should have the advantage on special teams and now would be a great time for that defensive or special teams TD that @Stank_Nasty has been asking for!

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Tough game (Pittsburgh is 11-1 for a reason and I think they're a well-coached veteran team with some exciting players) and I really wish BillsMafia could be at the stadium for this one, but the Steelers have played a soft schedule thus far and I think they are facing us at the wrong time coming off their first loss. The Bills offense is clicking, the defense is rounding into form, and our special teams has been very solid. The Bills are also relatively healthy while Pittsburgh has suffered some key losses (Haden being out could be a potential game-deciding loss IMO given his talent/football IQ and the CB depth behind him). Time to show out again on primetime against a favored opponent and take another big step towards winning the AFC East!

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!

Edited December 9, 2020 by Dont Stop Billeiving

[MJS]

Game of the season, right here.

[ghostwriter]

I have a good feeling about this game.

[Stank_Nasty]

47 FRIGGIN GAMES!!! The streak ends this week!!!! 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

28 minutes ago, MJS said:

Game of the season, right here.

 

25 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I have a good feeling about this game.

Agreed and agreed. The more I think about this game, the more I like our chances (usually I'm the opposite lol). The Steelers will be playing their third game in 12 days and there's a real chance we could wear them down in the second half.

 

Then once they're winded with hands on hips, play Renegade on a loop and crush them!

[wvbillsfan]

Ben throwing 50 times a game is exactly what I want. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Jake Luton. Didn’t even know who that was. 

[billsfan714]

Control TJ Watt and watch our for Minkah.   

[qwksilver]

1 hour ago, wvbillsfan said:

Ben throwing 50 times a game is exactly what I want. 

for less than 285 yards and a pick. Would be good news.

[BubbaT]

After watching the 49ers sit back and get carved up I certainly expect the Steelers to blitz like maniacs most every down, especially with Dupree down. They'll try to speed up his decision making and force errors and hope for turnovers and negative plays. Need the O line to give Josh time. Windy, rainy weather might not be conducive to an all out passing attack either. Wish Pouncey was out another week.

Edited December 10, 2020 by BubbaT

[John from Riverside]

We just need to take care of the football and we got it

[Rocky Landing]

Thanks, DSB-- this has become my favorite weekly thread.

 

If I were in Vegas right now, I think I'd make a decent-sized bet on the over (currently 46.5)

 

I just watched the Steelers' Sunday game vs. WFT.

Offensively:

I was shocked at the drops Washington, and Johnson had in that game. Not just the number of them, but the nature of them-- they had some seriously boneheaded drops! Smith-Schuster, and Claypool are the real deal, though. And so is Ebron, for that matter. He's a complete TE.

I think that if they get Connor, and Pouncey back (which sounds likely?), then Pittburgh really does get harder to defend. They really seemed to struggle in the run game, especially up the middle, vs WFT. But, runs up the middle have been a bit of an Achilles heel for us this season, and I would not be surprised to see them have success on those plays. And the games we have struggled in the most this season have been vs. well-balanced teams. A Connor/Pouncey return would add balance to the team that lost to WFT.

But, I'll say this, also: To me, the Steeler's offense looked gassed by the fourth quarter. With the kind of rotations McD puts out there, The Steelers will have to enter the second half with a lead to beat us, IMO.

 

Defensively: 

The loss of Haden is huge for the Steelers, but Hilton is no slouch. He had some great plays vs WFT on Sunday. 

They rarely played more than a four-man rush. That may change vs. Allen, but to their peril, IMO. Allen has gotten so good at taking what the D gives them, and our O-line is playing well enough that if they add to the pass rush, we'll take them apart on quick passes. They were ripe for short crossing routes, slants, and screens, even with a four-man rush. And Alex Smith ain't no Josh Allen. I might expect them to send TJ Watt after Allen a lot more than they did after Smith, except that they look to be missing LB Spillane, as well. He would also be a significant loss for their D. If they rush Watt, then Beasley, and Diggs will feast on ten-yard pass plays. Either way, I believe we match up really well against the Steelers' D.

 

Expect a high scoring game. But, I feel about as confident as I could considering the Steelers are an 11-1 team.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rocky Landing

[Kelly the Dog]

Thx for putting in the time and effort. Nice write up. They do have a bunch of weapons but I’m not sure they can stop us with those DBs and losing a couple folks. Going to be a close game. I think we squeak it out. 

[billsbackto81]

A Bills win coupled with a Dolphins and Pats loss would be a great early Christmas gift from Josh and the boys.

[Conlan58]

Pulled this one up to read on the toilet and now my legs are numb. 

 

Great work though! Thank you! I am psyched for this game.

[mannc]

Good report. What stands out to me is that, despite having some terrific weapons, Ben is averaging well under 6 YPA during these three games and clearly is not throwing the ball downfield with any real success. No wonder he wasn’t sacked...

[GunnerBill]

I think this is a very good matchup for the Bills. Offensively it is a similar story to the 49ers game for me. To coin a phrase "it starts up front". If the Bills can protect Allen and keep him clean then the Steelers can't cover our guys. The good news on that front is this is a Pittsburgh pass rush that is now very reliant on TJ Watt and it might be a game for the Bills to really make a concerted effort to double him - maybe even use some Lee Smith to stay in and help whichever tackle Watt lines up across from.

 

Defensively the Bills will love what they see on tape from the Steelers offense. A scheme that is generally about getting it out quickly and the short passing game. They don't really pound the run well, which as we know is the one thing that can get the Bills out of their comfort zone defensively, and they don't really go deep. They do exactly what the Bills want you to try and do against them.... dink and dunk it down the field for 12 plays. That might work a couple of times a game.... but you are not going to have 4 or 5 perfect drives of 10 or more plays without a penalty or a miscue and then the Bills will get you in 3rd and long and get you off the field (our 3rd down D is much improved the last 4 weeks).

 

I don't suggest this is an easy game, the Steelers have played a favourable schedule but 11-1 is 11-1. They have some talented football players. I just think the Bills match up really nicely against them and with the momentum we have from Monday Night and the Steelers having played 2 games in 12 days I expect a Bills victory.

[Warcodered]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think this is a very good matchup for the Bills. Offensively it is a similar story to the 49ers game for me. To coin a phrase "it starts up front". If the Bills can protect Allen and keep him clean then the Steelers can't cover our guys. The good news on that front is this is a Pittsburgh pass rush that is now very reliant on TJ Watt and it might be a game for the Bills to really make a concerted effort to double him - maybe even use some Lee Smith to stay in and help whichever tackle Watt lines up across from.

 

Defensively the Bills will love what they see on tape from the Steelers offense. A scheme that is generally about getting it out quickly and the short passing game. They don't really pound the run well, which as we know is the one thing that can get the Bills out of their comfort zone defensively, and they don't really go deep. They do exactly what the Bills want you to try and do against them.... dink and dunk it down the field for 12 plays. That might work a couple of times a game.... but you are not going to have 4 or 5 perfect drives of 10 or more plays without a penalty or a miscue and then the Bills will get you in 3rd and long and get you off the field (our 3rd down D is much improved the last 4 weeks).

 

I don't suggest this is an easy game, the Steelers have played a favourable schedule but 11-1 is 11-1. They have some talented football players. I just think the Bills match up really nicely against them and with the momentum we have from Monday Night and the Steelers having played 2 games in 12 days I expect a Bills victory.

The Steelers have also effectively not had a bye.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

The addition of Vince Williams to the COVID list yesterday is a tough one for them as well on top of the Devin Bush/Robert Spillane injuries. I typically think of him as just a solid but not spectacular guy in their defense (he didn't really jump out to me on film in the games I watched and they have several more talented players), but Williams actually leads their team with 63 tackles and is 4th in the NFL with 14 TFLs along with 3 sacks and 2 fumbles recovered. Our old AFC East foe Avery Williamson is just about all they have left at ILB. 

 

Wonder what is up with Claypool not practicing with an illness as well...he's the guy that scares me in their offense. I think we actually match up against Connor, Johnson, and Juju really well. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

13 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

The addition of Vince Williams to the COVID list yesterday is a tough one for them as well on top of the Devin Bush/Robert Spillane injuries. I typically think of him as just a solid but not spectacular guy in their defense (he didn't really jump out to me on film in the games I watched and they have several more talented players), but Williams actually leads their team with 63 tackles and is 4th in the NFL with 14 TFLs along with 3 sacks and 2 fumbles recovered. Our old AFC East foe Avery Williamson is just about all they have left at ILB. 

 

Wonder what is up with Claypool not practicing with an illness as well...he's the guy that scares me in their offense. I think we actually match up against Connor, Johnson, and Juju really well. 

Plus potentially no Joe Haden. This could be a different Steelers Defense than earlier in the year. That doesn’t not make it a lesser unit, but does put into question how these absences could impact the schematic plan of the Bills O. 
 

No doubt, their front seven has taken a big hit. But they still have some horses. I think the will be one of those games Dabol tries to revitalize the RPO and screen game in an attempt to slow the pass rush, and take advantage of some players at the LB/CB positions who may not diagnose these plays as quickly.