Josh Allen YPG in warm weather vs cold weather (stat)

[Rochesterfan]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Correlation is not causation...what games bin into these three temperature ranges?

 

Edit: OK, I looked.  This applies to 2 games, Chargers and NE.  So what this is basically saying is that Allen had low-yardage passing games against NE (a cold, rainy, windy day) and the Chargers.

 

In both cases, it seemed clear ahead of time that the Bills went into those games with the plan to run the ball down the opponent's throat. 

 

Daboll himself said on Fri before the NE game they practiced 50 plays and only 2 were passes.  The Bills went into and came out of the buy announcing that the top priority was to deep-dive into the run game and fix it.  We called 38 rush plays to 18 pass plays against NE, and 30 rush plays to 25 pass plays against the Chargers.  Also against the Chargers, there was like a 47 yd DPI that would potentially have increased passing yardage to 224 yds if Diggs weren't blatantly tackled.

 

I believe the run-heavy game plan was a strategic decision by Daboll based on what he thought would work against that opponent, and in the case of NE also because of the forecast for rain and strong winds.

 

Can we wait to determine there's actually a problem before deciding if Allen needs to fix it?

 

I agree the correlation is not the causation, but if colder temperatures brings worse weather and that causes the Bills OC to really want to focus on the run then Ipso Facto - they are taking the ball out of your best playmakers hands.

 

For me with this chart - it is not the temperature that is necessarily the biggest issue - it is the accompanying wind/rain/slippery conditions.  I am 100% for those conditions if I have a stout defense and a power running game and only an adequate QB (or worse) as we have had the previous 20 years.

 

If I have the best QB on the field and the best WRs - I want everything to give them the best advantages possible.  If that means a climate controlled Dome to block wind and rain - give it to me.  It is not something that has happened in Buffalo except for very minor periods of time, but you want to take advantage while you can.

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, hemma said:

"if he is to be the franchise QB in Buffalo, NY."

 

so I guess that is still up in the air.

 

I sure hope Beane is doing his QB draft work and sounds like it better improve from his last choice.

 

 

8 minutes ago, H2o said:

I took note of this as well. With Josh's steady progression over the last 3 years, his character, and work ethic off of the field it's pretty safe to assume we've found our guy. 

Just wanted to point out that I definitely believe Josh Allen is a franchise quarterback. Just look at my avatar.

I made a post here after the Raiders game saying unequivocally that he is a franchise quarterback and that it should no longer be doubted.

My wording in THIS post could've been better. I should have said "if he is have sustained success as the franchise QB in Buffalo, NY", but let the record show that I have no doubt that he is clearly the franchise. I DO think he plays better in warm weather and domes, but then, what NFL QB doesn't?

Edited December 9, 2020 by Logic

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

What games have we played this year under 50 degrees?...  

 

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing KC and NE.  

 

KC was his second game playing injured & NE was a game where we simply ran all over them. 

 

I do agree that the next step for Josh Allen is proving he can ball out in cold/bad weather.

 

 

This.  And both of the games were played in bad weather.  There was rubber all over the ball against KC (probably because we overfilled the field with the pellets) and the NE game was similarly cold, windy (if IIRC), and wet.  Easily the worst weather at that stadium.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

I agree the correlation is not the causation, but if colder temperatures brings worse weather and that causes the Bills OC to really want to focus on the run then Ipso Facto - they are taking the ball out of your best playmakers hands.

 

The NE game was nasty - wind rain slippery (albeit not as nasty as forecast)

 

The Chargers game, the weather was cool but not that bad.  Clear, 48 degrees, light wind.  I think Daboll just wanted to run either because they'd been working on fixing the run, because he thought it was a favorable match-up, or hopefully both.

 

I have no problem with the idea of building a dome, practically speaking I don't see it

 

My problem is with this created "issue" that must be "fixed" in Allen's game.  Gimme a break.

 

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My problem is with this created "issue" that must be "fixed" in Allen's game.  Gimme a break.

 

To be fair, he did state after the 49ers game that when its warm and there's no wind, he can really feel the ball coming off of his hand much better and he feels more in control of his passes. Now playing better in a dome -- which, again, most quarterbacks probably do -- is not the same as playing poorly in cold weather.

That being said, I WOULD like to see him actually have a great game -- an "AFC Offensive Player of the Week" type game -- in cold weather, before I say that his play definitely doesn't suffer in cold weather. The one truly nasty weather game in which he DID play this season (KC) saw him post his worst performance of the season by far. 

Sunday night should be a good chance to see if the "cold weather" stuff is just a bunch of hot air (sorry, I had to).
 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nah I looked it up.  KC was 51 degrees so doesn't fall into his <50 bad category. 

Below 50 is NE and the Chargers.

 

KC was 122 yd passing game though, and I suspect it skews the yardage on the middle category.

 

I suspect the real categories are:

1) The KC game where Allen was "off" and completed less than 54% of his passes for a season low 122 yds

2) Games where Daboll decides pre-game that running is the way we're going to attack and the pass game is there to keep them honest (NE and Chargers)

3) Every other game

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, but that KC game was also pretty bad conditions regardless of temp.

 

Allen does not seem to be the bad weather QB we hoped he would be. Maybe that is still something he can improve on. But most games aren't bad weather anyway.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I realize that more games are played in warm weather than cold weather. Nevertheless, this is something that Allen will need to fix going forward if he is to be the franchise QB in Buffalo, NY.
 

 

Not to be dating myself but I remember the 90s Bills used to practice out in the cold to give themselves an advantage when playing in cold, rainy/snowy condItions. I wonder if this is something the Bills can incorporate into their practices? I think Kelly used to practice throwing with a wet, cold football

Edited December 9, 2020 by Solomon Grundy

[RyanC883]

if the temperature is below 50, future Bills home games will be played at the Carrier Dome.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ok, but that KC game was also pretty bad conditions regardless of temp.

 

Now that you mention it, yeah, I remember, it was raining and breezy.

 

31 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Not to be dating myself but I remember the 90s Bills used to practice out in the cold to give themselves an advantage when playing in cold, rainy/snowy condItions. I wonder if this is something the Bills can incorporate into their practices? I think Kelly used to practice throwing with a wet, cold football

 

They do both.  Players have talked about practicing outside, and Diggs talked about watching the equipment staff carry out buckets of footballs soaking in cold water and being like "whaaaaaaat? why are they doing that?" then after playing in the rain, he "got it".

 

1 hour ago, Logic said:

To be fair, he did state after the 49ers game that when its warm and there's no wind, he can really feel the ball coming off of his hand much better and he feels more in control of his passes. Now playing better in a dome -- which, again, most quarterbacks probably do -- is not the same as playing poorly in cold weather.

 

I didn't hear a "when" in there.  I heard it as he could really feel the ball coming off his hand last night, it was warm and no wind, he felt like he had great control.

Not as a "because" statement.

 

But I could be wrong.

[27yankees]

Start up the retracable roof talk; again

[Warcodered]

I think Josh's ownership of the Dolphins might skew the average.