billsfan89 Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 KC, the bye week is a pipe dream thanks to the AZ loss. But the division is a goal this team needs to take and right now Miami stands in the way of that. A win against the Steelers (a tall order but doable) and a Fins loss would set this team up to win the division easily.
MJS Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 KC for sure. Have to worry about the division before anything else.
LewPort71 Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 K C all the way. Those of us old enough to remember the decade of losses to Miami in the 1970s would be very reluctant to cheer for Miami for any reason Unless of course the Dolphins are playing the Cheatriots. 1
Buffalo03 Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: KC, absolutely. I've conceded the #1 slot to KC. It's almost impossible to catch them given that they have head-to-head vs. Buffalo. Not necessarily. If you do the playoff machine there are two ways that we can get the number 1 seed. The first is we finish 13-3 with the Steelers but hold a head to head tiebreaker against them and the Chiefs finish 12-4 which is not very likely. However, the second way seems a little more attainable. If there is a 3 way tie at 13-3 between us, the Chiefs and the Steelers then we get the number 1 seed because tie breakers are different on 3 ways ties than they are with two teams. Even with the Chiefs having head to head over us, a 3 way tie at 13-3 gives us the number 1 seed. We should actually root for the Dolphins to win this game because it's clear of the two teams the Chiefs are the better team over the Dolphins. The Dolphins remaining games are Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills. I feel like the Dolphins will lose at least two of those last three games. If they steal one from the Chiefs, it wouldn't be to big a deal. The Chiefs however have the Saints, Falcons and Chargers after the Dolphins game. Brees should be back for that game against them which could give the Chiefs a loss. So, 13-3 for them is a lot more likely. Especially considering the almost lost to the Raiders a couple weeks ago and had a game with the Broncos last week. Rooting for the Dolphins might be better for this week 1
Motorin' Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Take this with a grain of salt im only 75% sure this is correct lol I think they use the wildcard tiebreaking rules to determine home field for division winners...so the head to head is not applicable since all three teams didn't play eachother and you'd drop down to conference win percentage...if we won out we'd have two conference losses and kc would have 3 so that would eliminate them leaving only pitt and we have the head to head over pitt Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator. Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs. The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie. 3
mjt328 Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 Kansas City holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over us. Which means even if we win-out, they would need to lose at least three games for us to pass them for the #1 seed. Their upcoming games are Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta and San Diego. I have a very tough time seeing them lose two of those games, much less three. Miami is still a big threat. They are only 1-game back, have a similarly difficult schedule left as we do, and of course play us in Week 17.
Saxum Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Arkady Renko said: Might have a decent shot if there is a three-way tie with Pittsburgh? I ran it thru the playoff thing and we do win but requires lots of dogs beating both of them.
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Motorin' said: Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator. Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs. The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie. Yea I screwed up with knowing how many conference wins the teams would likely have in a three way tie in my last post but we would be the 1 seed at a three way 13-3 tie. Chiefs get bounced on the win percentage against common opponents tiebreaker so it comes down to us and the steelers and we have h2h Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1
H2o Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win? KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1. This is assuming a Bills win this weekend. I want KC to win. If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal. Definitely KC. We're not going to get the #1 seed. Having the Dolphins lose however puts us closer to the AFCE crown.
Jauronimo Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Take this with a grain of salt im only 75% sure this is correct lol I think they use the wildcard tiebreaking rules to determine home field for division winners...so the head to head is not applicable since all three teams didn't play eachother and you'd drop down to conference win percentage...if we won out we'd have two conference losses and kc would have 3 so that would eliminate them leaving only pitt and we have the head to head over pitt How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence?
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence? Head to head does not apply in a three team scenario if the three teams haven't all played eachother...so the first use of the tiebreaker rules is to eliminate one and make it a two team tie and you restart from the top of the tiebreaker rules...they don't do a great job explaining it on the website but ill try to track down the relevant quotes 🤣 its honestly a little silly that we lost to kc but are undefeated against common opponents with kc and can eliminate them but that is the way it is lol if kc had played pitt it would be a different story...a kc win over pit wouldve had them at 2-0 against us two and couldve eliminated us both in one tiebreaker rule. If pitt beat kc we'd all be 1-1 head to head and the same thing described before of kc getting eliminated on common opponents would happen...and by eliminate i mean eliminate from the #1 seed of course lol Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan
Gugny Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said: Kansas City. All day and twice on Sunday. I don't think the NFLPA would allow them to play more than one game in a day. 1 1
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Gugny said: I don't think the NFLPA would allow them to play more than one game in a day. Theyd let it happen to the Steelers though 🤣 3 games in 11 days is pretty ridiculous but I won't complain if it gets us a win Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) I think our best scenario(outside of getting the 1 or 2 seed) is we go into a week 17 game with Miami thats meaningless for us but the dolphins need a win to make the playoffs and then we get a rematch with Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Idk if we could hold the 3 seed playing backups against Miami though so maybe thats impossible. If you could somehow guarantee me the bills beat the steelers maybe a Miami win over kc would be a good thing Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan
dave mcbride Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: Not necessarily. If you do the playoff machine there are two ways that we can get the number 1 seed. The first is we finish 13-3 with the Steelers but hold a head to head tiebreaker against them and the Chiefs finish 12-4 which is not very likely. However, the second way seems a little more attainable. If there is a 3 way tie at 13-3 between us, the Chiefs and the Steelers then we get the number 1 seed because tie breakers are different on 3 ways ties than they are with two teams. Even with the Chiefs having head to head over us, a 3 way tie at 13-3 gives us the number 1 seed. We should actually root for the Dolphins to win this game because it's clear of the two teams the Chiefs are the better team over the Dolphins. The Dolphins remaining games are Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills. I feel like the Dolphins will lose at least two of those last three games. If they steal one from the Chiefs, it wouldn't be to big a deal. The Chiefs however have the Saints, Falcons and Chargers after the Dolphins game. Brees should be back for that game against them which could give the Chiefs a loss. So, 13-3 for them is a lot more likely. Especially considering the almost lost to the Raiders a couple weeks ago and had a game with the Broncos last week. Rooting for the Dolphins might be better for this week I believe that KC is going to destroy Miami. Miami feasts on turnovers and STs. KC has great STs and doesn't turn the ball over. They're first in the league in fewest turnovers given up. KC is also smelling a bye now; so they're going to go for the kill. They are a LOT better than Miami. KC will also win their final two home games with ease. Edited December 8, 2020 by dave mcbride 2
John from Riverside Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 It would feel really good to win the division and put New England's dominance behind us 1
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I believe that KC is going to destroy Miami. Miami feasts on turnovers and STs. KC has great STs and doesn't turn the ball over. They're first in the league in fewest turnovers given up. KC is also smelling a bye now; so they're going to go for the kill. They are a LOT better than Miami. KC will also win their final two home games with ease. Definitely the smartest bet lol Miami is very middle of the pack on all the football analytics sites for the folks that care about that stuff...im not sure where these 'Miami is the best thing since sliced bread' posters were coming from 🤣 they just had a pretty big soft spot in their schedule and they finish with 4 tough ones. 1
wjag Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win? KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1. This is assuming a Bills win this weekend. I want KC to win. If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal. I want KC in a stomp. Bills aren't catching KC in the standings. No how, no way.
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