The Unthinkable: #1 Seed, Home Field thru Playoffs?

[NoHuddleKelly12]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

This isn’t the 70’s or even 30 years ago. The Bills will be able to throw the ball in January. In the elements.

 

It’s who they are and the bad Bills weather is more a myth than a reality.

But even the 90’s teams usually played very well in “Buffalo weather” whatever that means (compared to every other northern team’s weather also)—some of Kelly’s best games were in rough weather especially against Miami. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 hours ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

OK, I'm going to start this thread the right way, using the correct phrasing: Here me out!

 

Scenario: The Bills win out and the Steelers falter just enough to put us above them.  

 

The Bills win on Sunday (10-3) and the Steelers fall to 11-2.

Browns will beat the Steelers week 17, dropping them to 13-3. (**They could also lose to the Colts week 16). Bills have the tie-breaker over the Steelers.

 

The only problem obtaining the #1 seed, first-round bye and home field advantage is the Chiefs. I can see a loss to the Dolphins (if Fitz plays!) and a loss to the Saints. But, then they have the Falcons and Chargers at home to finish the season out. They probably finish 13-3 and they would have the tie-breaker over us!

 

I think we end-up the #2 seed. 

 

The only problem with your logic is if there's a 3 way tie at 13-3 which you're showing, then I don't think the fact that we beat Pitt and lost to KC comes into play as Pitt never played KC.  Likely next tie breaker would be conf record which based on your take would also be even, each have 2 conf. loses, then next I believe would go to record in common games which by a quick account KC gets the nod for #1, we'd then drop to #2 though it doesn't appear any of the 3 teams have enough common games to qualify so then may go to strength of victory whatever that means?

 

Think the only was we could get to #1 is KC loses 3 out of 4 and we win out.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

But even the 90’s teams usually played very well in “Buffalo weather” whatever that means (compared to every other northern team’s weather also)—some of Kelly’s best games were in rough weather especially against Miami. 

I'm reminded of the AFC Championship game against the Raiders. We looked so good in the elements and they just looked miserable. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The only problem with your logic is if there's a 3 way tie at 13-3 which you're showing, then I don't think the fact that we beat Pitt and lost to KC comes into play as Pitt never played KC.  Likely next tie breaker would be conf record which based on your take would also be even, each have 2 conf. loses, then next I believe would go to record in common games which by a quick account KC gets the nod for #1, we'd then drop to #2 though it doesn't appear any of the 3 teams have enough common games to qualify so then may go to strength of victory whatever that means?

 

Think the only was we could get to #1 is KC loses 3 out of 4 and we win out.

I've been looking into this all day rather than working haha you are right that head to head between all three teams doesn't apply but they go down the tiebreaker list until one of the 3 teams is eliminated and then start back at the top with head to head to break the remaining tie between the two teams...wed have the chiefs at winning percentage in common games and then we'd win the head to head with pitt i think

Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Motorin']

17 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The only problem with your logic is if there's a 3 way tie at 13-3 which you're showing, then I don't think the fact that we beat Pitt and lost to KC comes into play as Pitt never played KC.  Likely next tie breaker would be conf record which based on your take would also be even, each have 2 conf. loses, then next I believe would go to record in common games which by a quick account KC gets the nod for #1, we'd then drop to #2 though it doesn't appear any of the 3 teams have enough common games to qualify so then may go to strength of victory whatever that means?

 

Think the only was we could get to #1 is KC loses 3 out of 4 and we win out.

 

nope, according to the NY Times the Bills win the Conference if they finish in a 13-3 tie with KC and Pitt if one of KC's losses is against the AFC and two of Pitt's are. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#mia-kc-14=win&buf-pit-14=win&den-buf-15=loss&no-kc-15=win&cin-pit-15=loss&kc-atl-16=win&pit-ind-16=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&cle-pit-17=win&kc-lac-17=win&event=bye

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I've been looking into this all day rather than working haha you are right that head to head between all three teams doesn't apply but they go down the tiebreaker list until one of the 3 teams is eliminated and then start back at the top with head to head to break the remaining tie between the two teams...wed have the chiefs at winning percentage in common games and then we'd win the head to head with pitt i think

 

 

But states you have to have a minimum of 4 common games, I only see three games we have in common.  Chiefs are 3-0   2 wins against Denver plus Bills;  Pitt 1-1, Beat Denver, lost to us

; Bills 1-1 lost to KC, beat Denver  So then goes to Strength of Victory??

 

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

nope, according to the NY Times the Bills win the Conference if they finish in a 13-3 tie with KC and Pitt if one of KC's losses is against the AFC and two of Pitt's are. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#mia-kc-14=win&buf-pit-14=win&den-buf-15=loss&no-kc-15=win&cin-pit-15=loss&kc-atl-16=win&pit-ind-16=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&cle-pit-17=win&kc-lac-17=win&event=bye

 

 Don't see how as all three would have a total of two conference losses, Bills to KC and Tenn;  KC to Miami and Raiders; Pitt to Bills and Cleveland.  All three have one NFC loss .

 

If the Chiefs loss instead of the Saints was to Chargers, then we'd win it, but the OP listed it as Chiefs losing to Saints as 3rd loss.

 

There may be something wrong with site to as I flipped instead had Chiefs beat Saints, but lose to Falcons and number went down to 97% which is strange as it shouldn't make any difference if 3rd loss by Chiefs was to either Saints or Falcons as both non conference so something weird going on.  It's also possible this site never updated changes for this year and thinks the top two seeds both get byes, then it would correct as site is NOT stating we have the overall #1 seed, it's just stating we'd have a first round bye.

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

But states you have to have a minimum of 4 common games, I only see three games we have in common.  Chiefs are 3-0   2 wins against Denver plus Bills;  Pitt 1-1, Beat Denver, lost to us

; Bills 1-1 lost to KC, beat Denver  So then goes to Strength of Victory??

 

 

 Don't see how as all three would have a total of two conference losses, Bills to KC and Tenn;  KC to Miami and Raiders; Pitt to Bills and Cleveland.  All three have one NFC loss .

 

If the Chiefs loss instead of the Saints was to Chargers, then we'd win it, but the OP listed it as Chiefs losing to Saints as 3rd loss.

 

There may be something wrong with site to as I flipped instead had Chiefs beat Saints, but lose to Falcons and number went down to 97% which is strange as it shouldn't make any difference if 3rd loss by Chiefs was to either Saints or Falcons as both non conference so something weird going on.  It's also possible this site never updated changes for this year and thinks the top two seeds both get byes, then it would correct as site is NOT stating we have the overall #1 seed, it's just stating we'd have a first round bye.

Unless beating The Saints improves KC's strength of victory? 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

But states you have to have a minimum of 4 common games, I only see three games we have in common.  Chiefs are 3-0   2 wins against Denver plus Bills;  Pitt 1-1, Beat Denver, lost to us

; Bills 1-1 lost to KC, beat Denver  So then goes to Strength of Victory??

 

 

 Don't see how as all three would have a total of two conference losses, Bills to KC and Tenn;  KC to Miami and Raiders; Pitt to Bills and Cleveland.  All three have one NFC loss .

 

If the Chiefs loss instead of the Saints was to Chargers, then we'd win it, but the OP listed it as Chiefs losing to Saints as 3rd loss.

 

There may be something wrong with site to as I flipped instead had Chiefs beat Saints, but lose to Falcons and number went down to 97% which is strange as it shouldn't make any difference if 3rd loss by Chiefs was to either Saints or Falcons as both non conference so something weird going on.  It's also possible this site never updated changes for this year and thinks the top two seeds both get byes, then it would correct as site is NOT stating we have the overall #1 seed, it's just stating we'd have a first round bye.

For a team to factor into the common opponents tiebreaker they have to have 4 common games played but im pretty sure you can still eliminate 1 of the 2 teams based on that tiebreaker without Pitt factoring in.  The head to head rule between three teams specifically says you can't only consider two teams out of three and the rest of the rules don't say that .  Im not 100% sure though.  If thats not true it would come down to strength of victory.  Nfl.com playoff machine has us in at a three way tie at 13-3 also

Edited December 9, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I've been looking at strength of victory and we are in the driver's seat for that as well if its coming down to that...im sure I made a few counting errors but I used teams current records assuming steelers lose to only us and Cleveland and the chiefs losing to the dolphins and saints and us winning out and we are at 76-87 W-L in victories, steelers are at 70-92-1, and chiefs are at 67-95. Shame we had to play the winless jets twice 😁 our strength of victory would be quite impressive otherwise 

Edited December 9, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Buffalo03]

9 hours ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

OK, I'm going to start this thread the right way, using the correct phrasing: Here me out!

 

Scenario: The Bills win out and the Steelers falter just enough to put us above them.  

 

The Bills win on Sunday (10-3) and the Steelers fall to 11-2.

Browns will beat the Steelers week 17, dropping them to 13-3. (**They could also lose to the Colts week 16). Bills have the tie-breaker over the Steelers.

 

The only problem obtaining the #1 seed, first-round bye and home field advantage is the Chiefs. I can see a loss to the Dolphins (if Fitz plays!) and a loss to the Saints. But, then they have the Falcons and Chargers at home to finish the season out. They probably finish 13-3 and they would have the tie-breaker over us!

 

I think we end-up the #2 seed. 

They would NOT have the tie breaker over us in this scenario. A 3 way tie between us, the Steelers and Chiefs at 13-3 gives us the top seed and first round bye. Tie breakers are different when it's a 3 way tie as opposed to two teams

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

They would NOT have the tie breaker over us in this scenario. A 3 way tie between us, the Steelers and Chiefs at 13-3 gives us the top seed and first round bye. Tie breakers are different when it's a 3 way tie as opposed to two teams

It comes down to strength of victory...if the chiefs somehow beat the saints and lose to the chargers or something like that they would be the 1 seed in a three way tie. 

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

Unless beating The Saints improves KC's strength of victory? 

This is exactly what happens...I spent more time than id like to admit looking at this unlikely scenario 🤣 the bills better win out now haha 

[zow2]

My wife told me to start looking into SB tickets.  she knows the Bills window is open, right now and how big of a fan i am.

 

I’m not really going to anytime soon, but the fact she suggested it.  It’s real. 

[Charles Romes]

The seven team playoff format is a disgrace and a shameful money grab. The #2 seed bye gave meaning to the regular season.  Hope the owners come to their sense in the off-season and strike it down like they did the two bye-week season of the early 90s. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

The seven team playoff format is a disgrace and a shameful money grab. The #2 seed bye gave meaning to the regular season.  Hope the owners come to their sense in the off-season and strike it down like they did the two bye-week season of the early 90s. 

I wonder how many years we wouldve snuck in as the 7 seed...we never deserved it so ive gotta agree with you 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

56 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

For a team to factor into the common opponents tiebreaker they have to have 4 common games played but im pretty sure you can still eliminate 1 of the 2 teams based on that tiebreaker without Pitt factoring in.  The head to head rule between three teams specifically says you can't only consider two teams out of three and the rest of the rules don't say that .  Im not 100% sure though.  If thats not true it would come down to strength of victory.  Nfl.com playoff machine has us in at a three way tie at 13-3 also

 

Per Operations.NFL website

 

To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply wild card tiebreakers.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two wild card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep (applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four
5. Strength of victory
6. Strength of schedule
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss

#1 we're beyond as only one club per division tied

#2 doesn't work as Pitt didn't play KC

#3 all tied

#4 doesn't count as not a minimum of 4 games

#5 So does this mean the Bills win the tie breakers because of strength of victory? 

 

Strength of victory is the composite record of the teams that the team in question has defeated.

 

Kind of makes sense the Bills would win that one as played the AFC & NFL west while Pitt played NFC east and AFC south and KC played AFC east which besides Bills and Miami isn't that strong and NFC south which again has two good and two weak teams though would think the last 4 games on the schedules of all three of these teams could change that?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Per Operations.NFL website

 

To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply wild card tiebreakers.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two wild card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep (applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four
5. Strength of victory
6. Strength of schedule
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss

#1 we're beyond as only one club per division tied

#2 doesn't work as Pitt didn't play KC

#3 all tied

#4 doesn't count as not a minimum of 4 games

#5 So does this mean the Bills win the tie breakers because of strength of victory? 

 

Strength of victory is the composite record of the teams that the team in question has defeated.

 

Kind of makes sense the Bills would win that one as played the AFC & NFL west while Pitt played NFC east and AFC south and KC played AFC east which besides Bills and Miami isn't that strong and NFC south which again has two good and two weak teams though would think the last 4 games on the schedules of all three of these teams could change that?

Yup its strength of victory...looks like all three teams need 4 common games for that to matter.  I thought maybe they'd still eliminate one out of two with that but it doesn't work like that apparently lol were in good shape for strength of victory unless the chiefs beat the saints and end up with 3 losses somehow