Week 14: Steelers at Bills on SNF

[Stank_Nasty]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

I heard a stat today that has more to do with when he’s “pressured”. Not just blitzes. In those pressured situations his comp % is 12th amongst qb’s in that situation. Still not awful but I think that is reason for concern when it comes to Pittsburgh because I don’t think they technically “blitz” a lot. They’ve shown the ability to generate pressure with just their front. 
 

Heyward, tuit, and watt are all just awesome. Luckily for us dupree isn’t there anymore. It really was a terror for teams to deal with. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, chknwing334 said:

The Steelers give up an average of 17.6 points per game. 

fat fingers

 

should have been 18 not 8

[YattaOkasan]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

True

 

Dawson Knox had a big night for him - first 100% catch night, 4 receptions on 4 targets and only for 27 yds.  He had 4 receptions on 6 targets  once last season but for much more yards.  Devin Singletary, 3 receptions on 4 targets for 20 yds.  Zach Moss 1 for 1, 5 yds. 

 

Learning to be patient.  Learning to take what the D gives him.  Learning to dink n dunk.

It’s sorta weird cause he was such a threat downfield as rookie with some sick grabs and angry runs, but could Dawson Knox be more valuable in the short game this year?  Diggs is another weapon to stretch the field (Davis is probably better in the vertical passing game too). So instead Knox might have a really good role chipping the rush and then eating against zones underneath (he’s certainly athletic enough for YAC). This sounds really good this week when they will have back up LBs in those zones. 

[LABILLBACKER]

We double team Watt. We win

[K-9]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

Ironically, the stats cited in the linked article are attributed to ESPN and NextGen Stats. Given the Steelers’ injuries, especially with Haden ruled out and Allen’s success against the blitz all season, I doubt they will be as blitz happy as usual. Especially with the man beaters we have at receiver. 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

There seems to be some conflicting numbers out there because Brown and Tasker mentioned the metric of low completion percentage when blitzed that has been floating around and they both seemed sceptical of it too.

 

Whatever the case, my eyes tell me he does well escaping pressure and extending plays. And I would have assumed that he has performed quite well against the blitz.

[NI Bills Fan]

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

[billsherd]

30 minutes ago, NI Bills Fan said:

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

Thanks for posting this, I actually watched it earlier and wanted to post it here but didn't know how to from my phone. 

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

Wiz, you are the man, but some advice, DON’T WATCH ESPN.  Just kidding bud.  I gave up on them years ago.  MNF and that’s about it.

[atlbillsfan1975]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We double team Watt. We win

Dabs hasn’t shown much In the way of adjusting blocking schemes for a specific player. We shouldn’t hold our breaths.

Edited December 12, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[FLFan]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

Sounds like Collinsworth has his narrative set for Sunday night.  Such a tool.

[RichRiderBills]

Yeah,  thats what I thought. They mentioned this bad stat on ESPN NFL live as well. Seems like its come from nowhere. That QBR is insane. There was a lot of stats out there that Allen was burning blitzes. My guess is someone cherry picked some bad stats or forgot to carry the one so to speak. That being said, we are going to get blitzed. Thats what Steelers do. If they are damned either way, theyll do what they do best. ( my guess) 

 

Good thing is, that will open more man and short passing. Which with all the LBs out will kill them.

Edited December 12, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[fergie's ire]

4 hours ago, NI Bills Fan said:

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

Interesting.  I remember watching a video that someone posted earlier in the year where the analyst (don't remember who it was) picked up on that little foot tap and how it helped Josh rotate his hips better.

[Stank_Nasty]

30 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Yeah,  thats what I thought. They mentioned this bad stat on ESPN NFL live as well. Seems like its come from nowhere. That QBR is insane. There was a lot of stats out there that Allen was burning blitzes. My guess is someone cherry picked some bad stats or forgot to carry the one so to speak. That being said, we are going to get blitzed. Thats what Steelers do. If they are damned either way, theyll do what they do best. ( my guess) 

 

Good thing is, that will open more man and short passing. Which with all the LBs out will kill them.

The stat that’s being thrown around is “pressured” though. Not blitz’s. Which means it includes anytime Josh is getting somebody in his face even with just a four man front and everyone is covered that way. And Pittsburgh really hasn’t had to blitz much at alp with their front as talented as it is. When dupree was healthy they didn’t blitz a ton because you have him, watt, heyward and tuit all beating their guys a bunch. It’s one of the reasons why their d has been so good. We’ll see what they do without Dupree this week but still wouldn’t expect a ton of blitzes, while I’m still expecting to see plenty of pressure. 
 

50 sec mark of this clip they reference Allen’s stats against pressure in general, not just the blitz. 
 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Greybeard]

     I just checked the wind predictions and it looks like the Bills are catching a break with it being an 8PM game.  The game time wind is predicted 10-15mph.   If the game was played at 1PM the prediction is 15-25mph.  

[Coach Tuesday]

Don’t know about anyone else but I am fired up.

 

This season has been a joy.

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, FLFan said:

Sounds like Collinsworth has his narrative set for Sunday night.  Such a tool.

I don’t get the Collinsworth hate on here. Can he drone on about the best teams/players? Sure, but what national sports personality doesn’t? I listened to his interview with Chris and Steve when he was on and he was really positive/high on the Bills. Sure, he’ll hype the Steelers on Sunday night, but they deserve it. They are an 11-1 football team. He’ll show the Bills love too though. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by TheProcess

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The stat that’s being thrown around is “pressured” though. Not blitz’s. Which means it includes anytime Josh is getting somebody in his face even with just a four man front and everyone is covered that way. And Pittsburgh really hasn’t had to blitz much at alp with their front as talented as it is. When dupree was healthy they didn’t blitz a ton because you have him, watt, heyward and tuit all beating their guys a bunch. It’s one of the reasons why their d has been so good. We’ll see what they do without Dupree this week but still wouldn’t expect a ton of blitzes, while I’m still expecting to see plenty of pressure. 
 

50 sec mark of this clip they reference Allen’s stats against pressure in general, not just the blitz. 
 

 

Taking nothing away from their D line’s ability to rush the passer, but the Steelers also have the 3rd highest blitz percentage in the league. They’ve been a blitz happy team for years. 

[Solomon Grundy]

Our run game is going to be needed big time Sunday night. I see Keith Butler playing a bunch of nickel and daring us to run. Gonna need to be able to run between the tackles. Once we establish the run, then Josh will be able to operate.