Can someone explain QBR & Allen's 75.2% QBR vs. SF???

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

I agree with you mostly but it is still an anomaly that he didn't have a single 300 yard game first two seasons. Random dudes in random teams with random offensive personnel have 300y games quite often. Allen not having a single one last year was bizarre.

 

Random dudes in random teams aren't often playing with defenses that only allow 17 points per game. He went over 250 four times but three of those were in comfortable wins where the Bills didn't need to keep throwing. The 4th was the loss to Cleveland where to be honest he should have gone over 300 and he just missed opportunities to make plays. It was a bit of an anomaly but when you look at the reasons behind it they do make sense. 

[No_Matter_What]

Anyway OPs title is relevant and I'd like to know the answer. I don't want to mock QBR metric, I would like to know how it works. If often doesn't match eyetest or raw statistics, and this 49ers game seems like a prime example. It seems really hard to do more than JA did. Is it so low because of that Moss fumble? Or because Allen's "fumble" recovered by Dawkins which wasn't?

 

Josh had better QBR 5 games this season and 13 games in his career.

 

So anybody has a clue how they count it and what is the reason for it to be so low this time?

[Franco_92]

Almost positive that 75 is a really good QBR. You might be mixing it up with passer rating which was like 139 last night. 

 

Mahomes has 31 TD and 2 picks, 8.2 ypa, 318 ypg, only 2 fumbles and has a season qbr of 85. Last year his was 79, the mvp year was 80.

 

Had allen run a little more and not fumbled he'd be up there.

 

This QBR is higher than 9 of bradys 15 seasons played since they started tracking 

Edited December 8, 2020 by arcane

[Orlando Buffalo]

To the original question part of QBR is situational concepts so a fumble on the 5 is worse than a fumble on the 50 and slicing and dicing when up 17 is not equal to doing it while down 3. I am not sure how they value your elements but they definitely do.

[No_Matter_What]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Random dudes in random teams aren't often playing with defenses that only allow 17 points per game. He went over 250 four times but three of those were in comfortable wins where the Bills didn't need to keep throwing. The 4th was the loss to Cleveland where to be honest he should have gone over 300 and he just missed opportunities to make plays. It was a bit of an anomaly but when you look at the reasons behind it they do make sense. 

Yep everything you say is correct and helps to explain why he never reached 300y until 2020. Still an anomaly though 😁

[Billsfan1972]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good coaches coach to their talent. The Bills had a lot of talent on defense and not much on offense. That is why they coached that way. Look at Belichick. He is 6-6 with a paper thin roster and Cam Newton not putting up many big numbers. For years he won with Brady throwing all over the yard. He knows if he tried that with his current roster they'd be 1-11 (still beat the Jets :D). You coach to your talent. McDermott now has an offense that he can trust. His Quarterback has developed, he has an elite playmaker.... it makes the difference. If McDermott had rookie Josh throwing 45 times to Andre Holmes and Zay Jones there wouldn't have been 300 yard games it would have been beyond ugly. 

And Cam has 2 300 yard games this year (yea yea losses)......  The point is Allen had none in two years, which is almost impossible to fathom, regardless of talent.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And Cam has 2 300 yard games this year (yea yea losses)......  The point is Allen had none in two years, which is almost impossible to fathom, regardless of talent.

 

It was just an anomaly. But as I explained above when you actually look at why it makes sense. It is a pretty arbitrary mark anyway.

[Ralonzo]

80% completions

75% QBR

 

Some of those completions were due to bad QB play?

[djp14150]

QBR=crap

[Billsfan1972]

42 minutes ago, teef said:

who would have thought the op would create another self indulgent thread after a game?!?!?

Here we go again..... I asked about a 75.2 QBR rating.  Yep if asking about Allen, I will respond. What about the OP was self indulgent.  

 

I'd look up some of your posts/threads but not worth my time/effort or probably of any substance.

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

I'd love to see all those posts I defended him in 2018 & 2019, blaming it on Daboll and the play calling holding him back and now we see how being aggressive and paying playmakers actually works in the NFL..... Who would have thought that????😜😉

 

And as is typical - you would be wrong.

 

It was not Daboll holding him back as has been pointed out to you several times.  The Bills were aggressive, but lacked playmakers (as Beane stated in the off-season).

 

The Bills never babied or even slimmed down the playbook - Daboll talked several times about that.  The Bills/Daboll’s philosophy was we are going to attack and get Josh as much experience as possible and then use that as teaching moments.  Sort of a tough love approach.

 

They were so aggressive even last year that repeatedly true fans talked about why isn’t Daboll running more - you are getting 5 YPC from Singletary and he is only getting 10 runs a game - run him more - pull some passes away from Josh.  They recognized that the more they threw - the more he was exposed to and the more he learned.

 

What held Josh back in 2018 was the WR group - it was terrible and they made no plays for him - he was also so raw as to be scary.  2019 - the WRs improved (although Beane stated after last season they needed more) and the passing improved and Josh started to learn, but still had way to much he did not recognize.  2020 is a true WR group that makes plays for him (both routine and special), but the biggest difference is everything he has seen because of how aggressive Daboll was in his first 2 years.  Josh is at the point he is at because Daboll did not hold him back in his first 2 years - he trusted him to make some plays and learn from mistakes (and some of those mistakes were costly).

 

Daboll deserves a ton of credit for what he did in 2018 and 2019 to get Josh to this point today.

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was just an anomaly. But as I explained above when you actually look at why it makes sense. It is a pretty arbitrary mark anyway.

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

Yes - some of those games were down to bad offense. You are clearly not reading what I write. But they were not because we didn't throw enough. They were because we had bad skill position guys in 2017, awful skill guys in 2018 and average skill guys in 2019. Plus a QB who doesn't throw in 2017, a rookie who was overmatched in 2018 and in 2019 Josh was still growing missed an opportunity to do it vs Cleveland but we also didn't need to throw a lot to win because of our defense. 

 

So yes, had our offense been better in 2017-2019 we might have won some of those games. What you seem to be suggesting is if we had just thrown it more those years our offense would magically have been better. That is the bit that simply doesn't add up. 

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes - some of those games were down to bad offense. You are clearly not reading what I write. But they were not because we didn't throw enough. They were because we had bad skill position guys in 2017, awful skill guys in 2018 and average skill guys in 2019. Plus a QB who doesn't throw in 2017, a rookie who was overmatched in 2018 and in 2019 Josh was still growing missed an opportunity to do it vs Cleveland but we also didn't need to throw a lot to win because of our defense. 

 

So yes, had our offense been better in 2017-2019 we might have won some of those games. What you seem to be suggesting is if we had just thrown it more those years our offense would magically have been better. That is the bit that simply doesn't add up. 

 

A lot of what the OP says doesnt add up.        But he does like his LAMP 

[Seasons1992]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Player	Cmp	Att	Yds	Comp	TD	Int	Sk	Rate	Run Att	Yds	TD
Josh Allen	32	40	375	80%	4	0	1	139.1	6	11	0

 

Ladies and gents, this is called a franchise QB. Soak it in, we haven't had a proper bath in 25 years.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

Seattle, Russ's rookie year - no 300 yard passing games. Then over the next 3 seasons they only did it 5 times. Almost as though teams with really good defenses throw for 300 yards less often isn't it? How strange. 

[Rochesterfan]

5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

And has been repeatedly stated - 300 yards is a stupid, meaningless, and trivial number just pulled out of nowhere because it is round.

 

The Bills have continued to evolve and as they increased the WR talent and as Josh has gotten experience- the passing yards have come.

 

This year with the trust of the offense - McDermont has been one of the more aggressive coaches in terms of 4th downs and kicks - why?  Because he knows what they can do.  

[Ralonzo]

I hope Daboll is willing to stay with the Bills until they get that Super Bowl win. He'd be Buffalo's President For Life.

[Seasons1992]

2 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

I hope Daboll is willing to stay with the Bills until they get that Super Bowl win. He'd be Buffalo's President For Life.

 

Every member of the franchise can be President at that point......stay in down, get free drinks and dinner every day!

[teef]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Here we go again..... I asked about a 75.2 QBR rating.  Yep if asking about Allen, I will respond. What about the OP was self indulgent.  

 

I'd look up some of your posts/threads but not worth my time/effort or probably of any substance.

oh please.  this thread is just a reiteration of the others you've made.  it always goes back to how shocked you are 300 yard games and an open passing offense didn't happen the first two years, that it was mcd strictly being too conservative, you weren't entertained, etc.

 

some very informed posters have given you excellent reasons and explanations as to why this was the case, but since you wouldn't be able to complain anymore, your comment is simply, "let's agree to disagrees".   in other words...you won't listen to reason, and would rather cry like a man baby.  have at it champ.