Big Turk Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) ESPN has a metric for both offense and defense called pass rush and run stop win rate for defense and pass block and run block win rate for offense. They are the same metric used in converse ways. On defense, a pass rush win means he beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds. On offense, they get credit for pass block win if they block their defender for 2.5 seconds or more. A run stop is credited to a defender when they do any of the following: beating his blocker so he's in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backwards; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss, and vice versa. They rank individual positions as well as teams as a whole on these metrics: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings Some interesting tidbits(these numbers are updated as of 12/1, which means they include the Bills game this weekend but probably not the Steelers/Ravens on WED): 1) Jerry Hughes is still a force. He is 2nd in the NFL in pass rush win rate at 30%, 2nd only to TJ Watt(33%). In 3rd and 4th place are Myles Garrett(28%) and Joey Bosa(27%). Much of the pressure we have generated over the past 5 games when we have been among the lead leaders in sacks over that timeframe has come because of what Hughes is doing, even if he isn't the one getting credit for the sack. He forces the opposing QB to step up in the pocket and directly into other pressure. Perhaps nobody has been a bigger beneficiary than Klein in all this. 2) Mitch Morse is a very good pass blocker. He is the 4th rated center for Pass Blocking Win Rate at 96%. The only ones above him are Brandon Linder with the Jags(98%), JC Tretter(Browns/97%) and Corey Linsley(GB/96%). This made McDermott's comment about him earlier in the week very strange....especially since the Bills like throwing the ball this year 3) The Bills Pass Rush Win Rate as a whole on defense at 53% is 2nd only to the Steelers 57%. We are really getting after the QB the past few games and it has been very noticeable. 4) The Bills Pass Blocking Win Rate as a whole on offense is 4th best in the NFL at 64%. GB(74%), Cleveland(70%) and Arizona(69%) are the only teams ahead of us in that department. 5) The Bills fair pretty poorly on both sides of the ball in run stop/run block win rates. On defense, the Bills are ranked 22nd as a team at 30%. However, this actually isn't as bad as it appears because the team that ranks 1st, as surprising as it may seem, the Jets, only has a team run stop win rate of 34%. That 4% variance between teams 1 and 22 is pretty low, which means there isn't a lot of difference overall in a lot of ways between most teams. Team run block win rate on offense has the Bills ranked 30th at 67%. However, again, there is only a 7% difference between the #1 team(GB again, giving them a clean sweep of #1 at both pass blocking and run blocking win rates) who is at 74%. Also a little surprising is the team directly above the Bills at 29th in run block win rate is the 49ers at 68%. So they are not as good run blocking as some would make them seem. Wonder if their running success is more scheme based or if their actual success is overblown this year. So pretty much to sum it up, the Bills are good passing and against the pass and sucky at running and against the run at least in terms of the lines. Edited December 4, 2020 by matter2003 1 2
Saxum Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 So when Klein gets All Pro recognition he needs to thank Hughes. Interesting.
Jobot Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 Good baseline idea of win rates, but doesn't sound like double teams are taken into account.
Straight Hucklebuck Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 Thanks for this. Goes to prove the point that trying to lineup and run over people like Rex was trying to do less than 5-years ago is outdated. There isn't enough of statistical difference to make it exploitable. Field position and "staying ahead of the sticks" means nothing to a team like the Chiefs. Derrick Henry is the exception to the rule here, as he gets massive volume as the #1 driver of the Titans offense. Outside of him, the Vikings are sub-0.500 with Cook, Kamara is more of a WR, Robinson is chained down with terrible QB play. The Chiefs game showed that the Bills interior Defensive Line can be caved in, and our Linebackers are not instinctive enough to fill gaps.
shoshin Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, matter2003 said: 5) The Bills fair pretty poorly on both sides of the ball in run stop/run block win rates. On defense, the Bills are ranked 22nd as a team at 30%. However, this actually isn't as bad as it appears because the team that ranks 1st, as surprising as it may seem, the Jets, only has a team run stop win rate of 34%. That 4% variance between teams 1 and 22 is pretty low, which means there isn't a lot of difference overall in a lot of ways between most teams. Team run block win rate on offense has the Bills ranked 30th at 67%. However, again, there is only a 7% difference between the #1 team(GB again, giving them a clean sweep of #1 at both pass blocking and run blocking win rates) who is at 74%. Also a little surprising is the team directly above the Bills at 29th in run block win rate is the 49ers at 68%. So they are not as good run blocking as some would make them seem. Wonder if their running success is more scheme based or if their actual success is overblown this year. Assuming this stat is a good measure of D-line play, the fact that the Bills ranked so tightly with others but struggled against the run (before the last few weeks) suggest poor LB play. Stated another way, it would show that the D-line is OK vs run compared to others...but still gives up tons of yards....meaning players not on the D-line are to blame.
Big Turk Posted December 4, 2020 Author Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Thanks for this. Goes to prove the point that trying to lineup and run over people like Rex was trying to do less than 5-years ago is outdated. There isn't enough of statistical difference to make it exploitable. Field position and "staying ahead of the sticks" means nothing to a team like the Chiefs. Derrick Henry is the exception to the rule here, as he gets massive volume as the #1 driver of the Titans offense. Outside of him, the Vikings are sub-0.500 with Cook, Kamara is more of a WR, Robinson is chained down with terrible QB play. The Chiefs game showed that the Bills interior Defensive Line can be caved in, and our Linebackers are not instinctive enough to fill gaps. The Bills have done some very creative things to get pressure the last 5 games, which didn't seem like it was happening the first 6 games. Maybe because of so many new pieces on D, the lack of familiarity with the system or their role on a given play, or because they felt like the D Line was good enough to do it with the front 4, but it has been night and day difference noticeable and it started at the end of the Chief's game, although they had done it in stretches for other games(2nd half against Raiders comes to mind, 1st half against Rams), they didn't consistently do it all game long. They are doing a lot of things they did last year when they were really good...things like simulating pressure and dropping out by threatening a double A Gap Blitz(the Milano special---he gets tons of free runs on those), running overloads to one side which makes it look like they are bringing 5 or 6---sometimes they still only bring 4 but 3 come from 1 side which leaves a 3 on 2 matchup on one side for the offense and a 1 on 3 matchup on the other, with one Bills defender being blocked by 3 OL, while we have a free runner at the QB but still have 7 in coverage. This makes it very difficult to throw against us because we are getting pressure like we are blitzing but have the same coverage as if we were playing coverage because we essentially are. This leads to things like having to throw into tight windows, throwing short and having a defender tackle them immediately, nothing being open deep, and bad throws. Bills went from having one of the worst opposing passer ratings the first 6 games to having one of the best the past 5, and they did it against 3 of the top 5 offenses(Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals), so it isn't like they did it against bums. Edited December 4, 2020 by matter2003
Straight Hucklebuck Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, matter2003 said: The Bills have done some very creative things to get pressure the last 5 games, which didn't seem like it was happening the first 6 games. Maybe because of so many new pieces on D, the lack of familiarity with the system or their role on a given play, or because they felt like the D Line was good enough to do it with the front 4, but it has been night and day difference noticeable and it started at the end of the Chief's game, although they had done it in stretches for other games(2nd half against Raiders comes to mind, 1st half against Rams), they didn't consistently do it all game long. They are doing a lot of things they did last year when they were really good...things like simulating pressure and dropping out by threatening a double A Gap Blitz(the Milano special---he gets tons of free runs on those), running overloads to one side which makes it look like they are bringing 5 or 6---sometimes they still only bring 4 but 3 come from 1 side which leaves a 3 on 2 matchup on one side for the offense and a 1 on 3 matchup on the other, with one Bills defender being blocked by 3 OL, while we have a free runner at the QB but still have 7 in coverage. This makes it very difficult to throw against us because we are getting pressure like we are blitzing but have the same coverage as if we were playing coverage because we essentially are. This leads to things like having to throw into tight windows, throwing short and having a defender tackle them immediately, nothing being open deep, and bad throws. Bills went from having one of the worst opposing passer ratings the first 6 games to having one of the best the past 5, and they did it against 3 of the top 5 offenses(Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals), so it isn't like they did it against bums. The Bills defense has survived better than I thought they would without Milano. Getting Wallace back improves the Back 7 in my mind.
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