Line Shift in SF Game: Bills now Underdogs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Still it does not matter cause your also talking about the deep throws to.. 40 yards plus. What he did in college does not necessarily translate to NFL.

 

show me some raw stats on what the % is on throws between 20-30 yards then compare to this QB. Again 18 yards plus is a huge spectrum  I also said same reply in that other topic and you never replied to it. You can only generalize stuff to much.. Break it down.

 

"Show me some stats on what the % is on throws between 20 and 30 yds then compare to this QB"

 

Dude, I put up a bunch of data.  If you want to put up your own data, sliced and baked for 20-30 yds, that's cool

 

A demand that I cut the crust off the PJB sandwich, slice it in diamond shapes instead of quarters, plate it up for you on the Tigger plate and convey it to your mouth, not so much

 

You're not getting replies from me 'cuz that's what a demand that I "break it down" for you as you wish, without you being willing to put in the work yourself, amounts to.

[PrimeTime101]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"Show me some stats on what the % is on throws between 20 and 30 yds then compare to this QB"

 

Dude, I put up a bunch of data.  If you want to put up your own data, sliced and baked for 20-30 yds, that's cool

 

A demand that I cut the crust off the PJB sandwich, slice it in diamond shapes instead of quarters, plate it up for you on the Tigger plate and convey it to your mouth, not so much

 

You're not getting replies from me 'cuz that's what a demand that I "break it down" for you as you wish, without you being willing to put in the work yourself, amounts to.

The data you have shown is general. you can choose to prove or not prove I don't really care. All im saying your data is to general.  One stat on what the QBs do after 18 yards does not tell the whole story. not even close. You have to know this but you stick by your data on one stat as to where QB's average after 18 yards..

 

 

Example if there 18% of the time they are on target 35% thats 3-4 plays we got burnt Plays that could lead to touchdown. What most teams do and what this team does is not relevant to the situation at hand.

 

If this QB  cant throw well at all past 18 yards that becomes a problem. Then you start doing what teams did to us all game long Stack the box Situational

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by PrimeTime101

[PrimeTime101]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"Show me some stats on what the % is on throws between 20 and 30 yds then compare to this QB"

 

Dude, I put up a bunch of data.  If you want to put up your own data, sliced and baked for 20-30 yds, that's cool

 

A demand that I cut the crust off the PJB sandwich, slice it in diamond shapes instead of quarters, plate it up for you on the Tigger plate and convey it to your mouth, not so much

 

You're not getting replies from me 'cuz that's what a demand that I "break it down" for you as you wish, without you being willing to put in the work yourself, amounts to.

between diamond shapes is easy cut it in half diagonally then cut again Diagonally. Just saying lol!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

between diamond shapes is easy cut it in half diagonally then cut again Diagonally. Just saying lol!

 

Knock yourself out!

 

I don't mind sharing the data I have when folks ask politely

But to demand I go collect different data to your specifications is a bit much

 

Pass Attempts over 18 yds as of Week 12 (last 4-6 games) From NFL NexGen Charts
QB	# games assessed	Total Attempts	Attempts >18 yds	Complete  >18 yds	% of Total Attempts	Complete % of Long
Aaron Rodgers	6	207	40	19	19.3%	47.5%
Kirk Cousins	6	181	27	13	14.9%	48.1%
Drew Brees	3	86	6	3	7.0%	50.0%
Russ Wilson	6	224	32	11	14.3%	34.4%
Kyler Murray	5	182	25	11	13.7%	44.0%
Nick Mullens	4	133	16	10	12.0%	62.5%
Josh Allen	5	172	25	12	14.5%	48.0%
Ben Roethlisberger	5	217	30	6	13.8%	20.0%
Baker Mayfield	4	96	16	6	16.7%	37.5%
Ryan Tannehill	6	161	16	8	9.9%	50.0%
Patrick Mahomes	4	181	28	14	15.5%	50.0%
Justin Herbert	6	261	36	15	13.8%	41.7%

[BillsfaninSB]

59 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

They wore the red uniform that day I was at that game.

That was 2016. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

8 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

That was 2016. 

Oof

[PrimeTime101]

50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Nick Mullens 4 133 16 10 12.0% 62.5%

so what did we learn out of this?  Hes not throwing as much past 18 yards but when he is hes damn accurate finding his guy. 

Witch backs your theory to an extent that you cant stack the box all game long that eventually he will burn you. But when you look deeper 

pass to run ratio 644 total offensive plays 299 rushing plays 4.0 average on ground   345 passing plays  6.0 in air

 

San Fran is 19th in attempts passing

San Fran is 14th in attempts rushing

Stats dictate a run first team. Again You would think

 

So far we have looked at lots of stats not just focusing on one stat

 

Now lets go to first downs. First downs is where everything changes

70 first rounds by rush

115 by pass.

Again we are just looking at team right now.

 

Now lets look at when Mullen throws the ball to compare

 

Since Mullen has been playing they are about 10% more likely to run the ball.

 

All this being said Mullens is throwing  Average is 8.0 throwing. 263 average yards per game passing.

 

This all isnt one stat it starts to tell a story.

 

 

by the way most of mullens games were from behind 

 

[McGahee]

That;s ridiculous. 9ers are trash. They lost to the Dolphins, lol.

 

plus, they got their home field advantage taken away so there's another 3 ponts. Crazy!

 

We better smoke this team by 10+ or it's pretty sad.

[Buff76ers]

Um dude, 49ers have a very good D, the Dolphins are pretty darn good ( how do you not know that ), we have a terrible MNF track record, home field advantage this year means absolutely nothing without fans, they have 2 really good WR's and pretty good running game. All this and the fact that we have been kind of streaky the last few weeks is why we are the underdogs, but hear me out..... I LOVE BEING THE UNDERDOG!!

 

[McGahee]

15 minutes ago, Buff76ers said:

Um dude, 49ers have a very good D, the Dolphins are pretty darn good ( how do you not know that ), we have a terrible MNF track record, home field advantage this year means absolutely nothing without fans, they have 2 really good WR's and pretty good running game. All this and the fact that we have been kind of streaky the last few weeks is why we are the underdogs, but hear me out..... I LOVE BEING THE UNDERDOG!!

 

The Dolphins aren't good at all. They just got some lucky plays.

[Jpsredemption]

49ers going to pistol whip the Bills. 

[machine gun kelly]

Isn’t it interesting all of these people with less than 1000 posts always seems to be passively aggressively negative on the Bills and just love to poke holes.  There are lots of true TBD people who can be scrutinize at times on Bills plays, strategy, or play calling, but is balanced with lots of pro Bills comments.  It’s a trend we have in the last four months so many under 1000 posts of guys who keep tearing down our team.  Seems interesting to me.  It’s why I don’t respond to these tools.

 

Trolls, don’t worry anything you say to me, I won’t respond so have fun.  You’re not worth my time.

BTW, that doesn’t mean I don’t welcome real Bills fans new to the board.  You can tell in a heartbeat a true Bills fan.

[without a drought]

5 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Isn’t it interesting all of these people with less than 1000 posts always seems to be passively aggressively negative on the Bills and just love to poke holes.  There are lots of true TBD people who can be scrutinize at times on Bills plays, strategy, or play calling, but is balanced with lots of pro Bills comments.  It’s a trend we have in the last four months so many under 1000 posts of guys who keep tearing down our team.  Seems interesting to me.  It’s why I don’t respond to these tools.

 

Trolls, don’t worry anything you say to me, I won’t respond so have fun.  You’re not worth my time.

BTW, that doesn’t mean I don’t welcome real Bills fans new to the board.  You can tell in a heartbeat a true Bills fan.

The Bills don't stand a chance against the 49ers...

 

At least according to my post count.

[GoBills!]

I locked in the bills at +1.5. Bought a point to make it 2.5 for safe measures. It will be close it depends on which nick mullens shows up.

[McGahee]

21 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

49ers going to pistol whip the Bills. 

This gotta be a troll. lol

 

9ers lost to the DOLPHINS! LMAO!

[machine gun kelly]

The odds makers because of betting moved the line.  Very simple.  Not because they are better, just the betting public placed $ on the line.  Not complicated.  .

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Don’t worry about the line.   Vegas wants it’s $$$$

[billieve420]

Looks like large amount of money is on the 49ers even though the Bills are getting majority of bets. Expect a close game feels like it could be a toss up.

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, McGahee said:

That;s ridiculous. 9ers are trash. They lost to the Dolphins, lol.

 

plus, they got their home field advantage taken away so there's another 3 ponts. Crazy!

 

We better smoke this team by 10+ or it's pretty sad.

Very astute game prediction. No one was home field this year(well I guess some have 5-10k). Pretty hard to compare previous matchups on score differential. Too many variables and at the time niners were really banged up. Smoking niners by plus 10 would be good fun. Your explanation that we do so because they are trash is strong analysis. 

48 minutes ago, McGahee said:

This gotta be a troll. lol

 

9ers lost to the DOLPHINS! LMAO!

Must be someone posing as High IQ to stir things up 🤷🏻‍♂️

[BBills_88]

Let's stay underdogs

F#@k that line. Vegas lost twice today.