Line Shift in SF Game: Bills now Underdogs

[QLBillsFan]

Significant national media leaning heavy 49ers on Monday. I think many lazy who have not seen D improvement and still think JA is inaccurate. Tough game need to shut down run and force Mullins to beat us. Bills work run and play action. Bills 27-19. Better team wins. 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

shanahan is a very good coach and a guy that can outcoach another squad with having zero talent.  

I lost Shanahan when he was ATL OC and went for style points with lead over Pats. Mis managed calls and gave Tommy time for two scores. Last year SB not able to close it out, good but not great. Bills really being under valued as viable team right now. I like our coaching ( at least wash) and our talent at QB (advantage)

 

[CaptnCoke11]

I like that line shift.  Load up on Buffalo 

[Bronxbomber21]

I'm going big on buffalo they show out in Primetime when the got the WHITE FACEMASK 

[BillsfaninSB]

7 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I'm going big on buffalo they show out in Primetime when the got the WHITE FACEMASK 

They lost to the Jets in ‘17 on Thursday night with the exact same uni they will wear in AZ.

That loss almost wrecked the season that year. 
 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by BillsfaninSB

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

I lost Shanahan when he was ATL OC and went for style points with lead over Pats. Mis managed calls and gave Tommy time for two scores. Last year SB not able to close it out, good but not great. Bills really being under valued as viable team right now. I like our coaching ( at least wash) and our talent at QB (advantage)

 

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

Edited December 5, 2020 by dave mcbride

[RichRiderBills]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

 

These are a nice stats, but odd to cherry pick the last 3 meetings. They split in '15 and got swept against a great Falcons team in '16 that blew through everything. The Panthers were 6-10 that year. I dont know if 1-3 tells me much over those two years. The players were so different. 

[TigerJ]

22 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

This is the second straight game with tons of late money going against Buffalo.  The Chargers point spread shifted a bunch and a lot of people lost big betting LA.

 

 

So, people who bet against Buffalo last week are trying to make up their losses by going against Buffalo this week?   Fools and their money are easily parted.

[Jpsredemption]

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

[Mat68]

The house wins.  SF is fools gold.  Buffalo wins fairly easy imo.  This is the week Buffalo scores a defensive TD.

2 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

Buffalo is not losing to Mullens.  Buffalo is top 5 in the league vs outside zone.  The house wins.  Most of the money on SF the books laugh all the way to the bank.  

[Jpsredemption]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The house wins.  SF is fools gold.  Buffalo wins fairly easy imo.  This is the week Buffalo scores a defensive TD.

Buffalo is not losing to Mullens.  Buffalo is top 5 in the league vs outside zone.  The house wins.  Most of the money on SF the books laugh all the way to the bank.  

I hope you are right 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Jpsredemption said:

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

 

What team is some dominant force that just blows teams out every week.  I don't think there is one in the NFL this year.  There may be a couple that do so on occasion like the Chiefs against Denver or something.

[Doc]

My site has the game as a "pick'em."

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I don't see a huge difference between Mullens and Jimmy G. Other than bank account balance and good looks. That said, I really do think our defense is starting to gel. 49ers will try to run the ball down our throats but as mentioned by a poster previously i don't see a repeat of the Chiefs game because they don't have Mahomes and Hill/Kelce for our secondary to worry about. I think we keep them to 20 or less. Bills score 23+

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

My site has the game as a "pick'em."

 

I still have Bills at +1(Bovada)  but i fear it will also go to pick em. I need to bet my teaser sooner rather than later but it's hard when you bet six team teasers. You are always waiting on a line or two to move in a more favorable direction. I LOVE the Bills at +7 but only love them at +6. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

Wow....that's problematic 

[El Guapo]

My book has it at Bills +1

[Cruiserplayer]

I’m leaning toward the moneyline at 100 vs the +1 at -105.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/4/2020 at 4:55 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

The 49ers are hobbled with injuries on both sides of the ball.  Josh shows up to play under the bright lights. If not for the Zona Hail Mary, Josh and the Bills would be coming into town riding a five game win streak.  The Bills' defense is going to be run blitzing and daring Mullins to make them pay with his arm.  Mullins can't push the ball down the field.  Listened to one of the San Fran beat reporters this week saying that the San Fran offense is essentially an "18 yard bubble" with Mullens under center because he doesn't have the arm strength anymore to effectively throw the ball down the field further than that.  That will allow Poyer and Hyde to cheat up on the line to help in run support.

 

I think the Bills win by two scores.

 

I responded to you when you posted this in another thread so I'll link it here. 

 

Bottom line:

-shots beyond 18 yds are a low percentage of attempts even for pass heavy teams, typically 14-15% (high of 19% - Rodgers; low of 10% - Tannehill)

-Mullins takes 12% of his shots >=18 yds, which is a bit lower than the average "top gun" guy like Mahomes, Big Ben, Wilson, Rodgers, Allen, Murray, Herbert - but similar to other guys operating in run-heavy offenses like Tennessee.  His completion percentage on those shots is a bit better than the typical 39-48% of the "Gunners" at 62.5%.

 

So I think this press idea that he doesn't throw deep as much because he can't is a bit unproven by data, vs that he's following an offensive philosophy of take fewer shots but hit more of them.

 

The guy did do this: "Mullens finished his collegiate career at Southern Miss as the career passing leader in every statistical category.^[15] His 11,994 yards passing and 87 touchdown passes dwarfed the 7,695 yards and 52 touchdowns registered by former NFL great Brett Favre during his four years with the Golden Eagles."

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I responded to you when you posted this in another thread so I'll link it here. 

 

Bottom line:

-shots beyond 18 yds are a low percentage of attempts even for pass heavy teams, typically 14-15% (high of 19% - Rodgers; low of 10% - Tannehill)

-Mullins takes 12% of his shots >=18 yds, which is a bit lower than the average "top gun" guy like Mahomes, Big Ben, Wilson, Rodgers, Allen, Murray, Herbert - but similar to other guys operating in run-heavy offenses like Tennessee.  His completion percentage on those shots is a bit better than the typical 39-48% of the "Gunners" at 62.5%.

 

So I think this press idea that he doesn't throw deep as much because he can't is a bit unproven by data, vs that he's following an offensive philosophy of take fewer shots but hit more of them.

 

The guy did do this: "Mullens finished his collegiate career at Southern Miss as the career passing leader in every statistical category.^[15] His 11,994 yards passing and 87 touchdown passes dwarfed the 7,695 yards and 52 touchdowns registered by former NFL great Brett Favre during his four years with the Golden Eagles."

 

 

Still it does not matter cause your also talking about the deep throws to.. 40 yards plus. What he did in college does not necessarily translate to NFL.

 

show me some raw stats on what the % is on throws between 20-30 yards then compare to this QB. Again 18 yards plus is a huge spectrum  I also said same reply in that other topic and you never replied to it. You can only generalize stuff to much.. Break it down.

[Dablitzkrieg]

On 12/4/2020 at 10:57 PM, BillsfaninSB said:

They lost to the Jets in ‘17 on Thursday night with the exact same uni they will wear in AZ.

That loss almost wrecked the season that year. 
 

 

 

They wore the red uniform that day I was at that game.