3 LB Sets

[PrimeTime101]

Now that we have 3 Legit LBS, Should we go back to 3 LB sets often again?.. 

 

Well the answer isn't that easy because there are questions within the question

1. IS Milano 100%?

2. IS the defense ready to transform to 3 LB formations on a regular basis?

3. Can one LB go Right and one go Left?

 

The reason I would like to go back to this is because our run defense has been horrific and we are playing against a strong run team in SF.

So lets answer this questions to a question one at a time.

1. Lets assume Milano is 100% for the sake of finding an answer and I think we all agree Milano should not play if he is not 100% or close.

2. I think this defense is ready and I feel lie players like Edmunds benefits from 3 LB formations

3. Can the OLB's Function at either side.. To this answer I will leave it up to you guys to answer.. id like to think so but I cant say 100%

 

I also feel we have LB Depth and either OLB can be rotated by another OLB or inside CB situational

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Now that we have 3 Legit LBS, Should we go back to 3 LB sets often again?.. 

 

Well the answer isn't that easy because there are questions within the question

1. IS Milano 100%?

2. IS the defense ready to transform to 3 LB formations on a regular basis?

3. Can one LB go Right and one go Left?

 

The reason I would like to go back to this is because our run defense has been horrific and we are playing against a strong run team in SF.

So lets answer this questions to a question one at a time.

1. Lets assume Milano is 100% for the sake of finding an answer and I think we all agree Milano should not play if he is not 100% or close.

2. I think this defense is ready and I feel lie players like Edmunds benefits from 3 LB formations

3. Can the OLB's Function at either side.. To this answer I will leave it up to you guys to answer.. id like to think so but I cant say 100%

 

I also feel we have LB Depth and either OLB can be rotated by another OLB or inside CB situational

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They definitely can.......especially against the kind of personnel the Niners use........their passing game shouldn't be that hard to contain.

 

Also this is the least important game on the Bills schedule so if they are still going to be trying out things on defense........this is the game.

 

If Kittle were playing it would have been a chance to put one of the LB's over him and see how that might look like against Kelce in a potential playoff matchup.

 

 

[JohnNord]

It’s all situational... I think you’ll see 3 LB more frequently to defend heavy sets against teams with running attacks.  Maybe even starting Monday if Milano plays.  If we even end up against Tennessee or Cleveland in the postseason, I think you’ll definitely see a lot of 3 LB sets.

 

But I do feel that primary this team will stay in Nickel to minimize damage against passing attacks.  McDermott knows that teams that can pass and defend the pass win more often 

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They definitely can.......especially against the kind of personnel the Niners use........their passing game shouldn't be that hard to contain.

 

Also this is the least important game on the Bills schedule so if they are still going to be trying out things on defense........this is the game.

 

If Kittle were playing it would have been a chance to put one of the LB's over him and see how that might look like against Kelce in a potential playoff matchup.

 

 

agreed and I think the defense needs 3 studs at LB on the field more often

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

It’s all situational... I think you’ll see 3 LB more frequently to defend heavy sets against teams with running attacks.  Maybe even starting Monday if Milano plays.  If we even end up against Tennessee or Cleveland in the postseason, I think you’ll definitely see a lot of 3 LB sets.

 

But I do feel that primary this team will stay in Nickel to minimize damage against passing attacks.  McDermott knows that teams that can pass and defend the pass win more often 

this isn't about most teams. I think its more like situational game planning.  I would of loved for our LBS to be healthy against the Titans. There are teams that are pass and run heavy.. we have 3 LB studs  i say get them all out there more often

[machine gun kelly]

Even when healthy, we traditionally whether this year or previous ones, McD’s defensive scheme usually goes to a nickel defense.  I’m not opposed to a healthy team doing some base defense if we are opposing a run heavy team, but even in the TN example mentioned above, they keep Henry in check in the last game.  We just had too many turnovers and a short field making it nearly impossible to win. Their Star WR torched us.  This thread does beg a reasoned answer so thank you.

[Inigo Montoya]

Listening to a podcast that included an interview with a beat reporter from San Fran last night who said the San Fran offense with Mullins at QB is essentially an 18 yard bubble.  He just doesn't have the arm strength to push the ball down the field any further than that.  My guess is we will probably stick with our nickel package which we use almost 75% of the time, but I would expect our safeties to be creeping up to the line at the snap to help contain on the edges where Mostert does most of his damage.

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Augie]

14 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Even when healthy, we traditionally whether this year or previous ones, McD’s defensive scheme usually goes to a nickel defense.  I’m not opposed to a healthy team doing some base defense if we are opposing a run heavy team, but even in the TN example mentioned above, they keep Henry in check in the last game.  We just had too many turnovers and a short field making it nearly impossible to win. Their Star WR torched us.  This thread does beg a reasoned answer so thank you.

 

I do like that they have found a way to use Klein where he can be successful. That’s what good coaches do.  He lacks  the speed to cover effectively and is NOT Milano, but used properly in the right situations, he is one more tool in the box, and that’s always a good thing. 

 

 

.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Augie

[billsbackto81]

Contain Deebo Samuel and we win. Mosert is still working his way back where Deebo just hit the ground running. That kid's a beast. Mullins isn't scaring anyone. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by billsbackto81

[ghostwriter]

Just now, Augie said:

 

I do like that they have found a way to use Klein where he can be successful. He lacks speed and is NOT Milano, but used properly in the right situations, he is one more tool in the box, and that’s always a good thing. 

Yes.. Very strong, very instinctive, very good downhill bruiser but not athletic nor good in coverage.. Would probably be a premier player if he were one or two steps faster..

 

As far as what sets we run, I don’t know.. Suppose it would be nice to see three LBs on the field every so often.. but I like the idea of Klein at Mike and Edmunds at Will followed by a heavy dose of safety blitzes.. Would expect to see Poyer’s name called quite a bit.. Milano should be eased back in.. We’re playing a running team, not exactly his forte.. More Klein and Edmunds in nickel packages please!

[NoSaint]

48 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

agreed and I think the defense needs 3 studs at LB on the field more often

Are we already claiming 3 studs here?

33 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Even when healthy, we traditionally whether this year or previous ones, McD’s defensive scheme usually goes to a nickel defense.  I’m not opposed to a healthy team doing some base defense if we are opposing a run heavy team, but even in the TN example mentioned above, they keep Henry in check in the last game.  We just had too many turnovers and a short field making it nearly impossible to win. Their Star WR torched us.  This thread does beg a reasoned answer so thank you.

modern nfl defenses go to a nickel, honestly. That’s not McD defenses, that’s nfl defenses.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

The reason I would like to go back to this is because our run defense has been horrific and we are playing against a strong run team in SF.

 

I'd just like to question your premise a little bit:  Has our run defense in fact, been horrific? 

I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.

 

I'm a simple Hapless Fan.  I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.

So let's just do some simple maths.

 

-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)

-high 161 (Browns)

-low 82 (Bears)

That's a 2x range.  So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat.  For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them.  In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average.  In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.

 

With me so far?

 

So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.

 

But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference).  "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them.  A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average.  A negative number means we allowed more.

week	Tm	rush ypg	Bills rush yds	delta
					1	New York Jets	98	52	46
2	Miami Dolphins	95	99	-4
3	Los Angeles Rams	125	167	-42
4	Las Vegas Raiders	126	86	40
5	Tennessee Titans	158	139	19
6	Kansas City Chiefs	111	245	-134
7	New York Jets	98	100	-2
8	New England Patriots	150	188	-38
9	Seattle Seahawks	117	57	60
10	Arizona Cardinals	156	217	-61
12	Los Angeles Chargers	117	76	41

 

As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game.  It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values.  We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it.  Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.

 

Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that.  But there are a couple of  other interesting things to note:  our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams).  In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average.  Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?

 

I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That.  And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano.  In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers.  57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

[Fan in Chicago]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

I agree. This is an NFC game and less important than others coming on our schedule. No need to rush Milano back - ease him in to run that rust off and save him for the more important AFC games on the schedule. 

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd just like to question your premise a little bit:  Has our run defense in fact, been horrific? 

I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.

 

I'm a simple Hapless Fan.  I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.

So let's just do some simple maths.

 

-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)

-high 161 (Browns)

-low 82 (Bears)

That's a 2x range.  So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat.  For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them.  In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average.  In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.

 

With me so far?

 

So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.

 

But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference).  "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them.  A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average.  A negative number means we allowed more.

week	Tm	rush ypg	Bills rush yds	delta
					1	New York Jets	98	52	46
2	Miami Dolphins	95	99	-4
3	Los Angeles Rams	125	167	-42
4	Las Vegas Raiders	126	86	40
5	Tennessee Titans	158	139	19
6	Kansas City Chiefs	111	245	-134
7	New York Jets	98	100	-2
8	New England Patriots	150	188	-38
9	Seattle Seahawks	117	57	60
10	Arizona Cardinals	156	217	-61
12	Los Angeles Chargers	117	76	41

 

As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game.  It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values.  We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it.  Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.

 

Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that.  But there are a couple of  other interesting things to note:  our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams).  In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average.  Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?

 

 I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That.  And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano.  In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers.  57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

 

The KC game looks FUGLY when looking at the run stats, but I think that was a decision. The game plan was a good one IMO, let them plug away rather than score 30 in the first half. We stayed in striking distance, despite being a painful watch. As you say, a game plan for each opponent. 

[JohnRVA]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd just like to question your premise a little bit:  Has our run defense in fact, been horrific? 

I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.

 

I'm a simple Hapless Fan.  I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.

So let's just do some simple maths.

 

-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)

-high 161 (Browns)

-low 82 (Bears)

That's a 2x range.  So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat.  For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them.  In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average.  In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.

 

With me so far?

 

So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.

 

But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference).  "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them.  A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average.  A negative number means we allowed more.

week	Tm	rush ypg	Bills rush yds	delta
					1	New York Jets	98	52	46
2	Miami Dolphins	95	99	-4
3	Los Angeles Rams	125	167	-42
4	Las Vegas Raiders	126	86	40
5	Tennessee Titans	158	139	19
6	Kansas City Chiefs	111	245	-134
7	New York Jets	98	100	-2
8	New England Patriots	150	188	-38
9	Seattle Seahawks	117	57	60
10	Arizona Cardinals	156	217	-61
12	Los Angeles Chargers	117	76	41

 

As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game.  It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values.  We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it.  Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.

 

Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that.  But there are a couple of  other interesting things to note:  our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams).  In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average.  Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?

 

I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That.  And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano.  In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers.  57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

Really good analysis here. I'm not an expert, but I agree that we had a couple bad games against the run but I don't think it's as bad as it looks based on the competition, our injuries at the time, etc. I think we're a lot closer to rank 10-15 vs. the run right now, than bottom 5 like some analysts think.

[wvbillsfan]

Offense dictates what personnel we play on defense. 
you see third or more wrs there’s only going to be 2 linebackers on the field. 
 

You could play 3 but then you’re basically giving away that you’re going to play zone. 
 

Playing 3 linebackers at the same time is a dinosaur in the nfl. 

[TBBills]

14 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I agree. This is an NFC game and less important than others coming on our schedule. No need to rush Milano back - ease him in to run that rust off and save him for the more important AFC games on the schedule. 

Rush back? He hasn't played in forever. He will be activated Sat and play on Sunday NFC or not this is a needed game.

[FireChans]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd just like to question your premise a little bit:  Has our run defense in fact, been horrific? 

I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.

 

I'm a simple Hapless Fan.  I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.

So let's just do some simple maths.

 

-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)

-high 161 (Browns)

-low 82 (Bears)

That's a 2x range.  So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat.  For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them.  In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average.  In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.

 

With me so far?

 

So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.

 

But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference).  "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them.  A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average.  A negative number means we allowed more.

week	Tm	rush ypg	Bills rush yds	delta
					1	New York Jets	98	52	46
2	Miami Dolphins	95	99	-4
3	Los Angeles Rams	125	167	-42
4	Las Vegas Raiders	126	86	40
5	Tennessee Titans	158	139	19
6	Kansas City Chiefs	111	245	-134
7	New York Jets	98	100	-2
8	New England Patriots	150	188	-38
9	Seattle Seahawks	117	57	60
10	Arizona Cardinals	156	217	-61
12	Los Angeles Chargers	117	76	41

 

As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game.  It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values.  We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it.  Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.

 

Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that.  But there are a couple of  other interesting things to note:  our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams).  In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average.  Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?

 

I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That.  And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano.  In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers.  57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

If you're going to throw out outliers, you'd probably want to throw out the outliers on both ends of the spectrum. You know, to keep it honest.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If you're going to throw out outliers, you'd probably want to throw out the outliers on both ends of the spectrum. You know, to keep it honest.

 

If that's the point you take from the totality of what I wrote, kindly work on your reading comprehension... "other teams may well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that"

 

But in terms of "both ends of the spectrum -- where is that single outlier skewing the average on the other side?  If you have to throw out 3 or 4 of 11 points...those probably aren't outliers

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If that's the point you take from the totality of what I wrote, kindly work on your reading comprehension... "other teams may well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that"

 

But in terms of "both ends of the spectrum -- where is that single outlier skewing the average on the other side?  If you have to throw out 3 or 4 of 11 points...those probably aren't outliers

Allowing 50 yards to the Seahawks and Jets. Matches up quite nicely with 200+ yards to the Cardinals and Chiefs eh?