Chris Simms Unbuttoned review of Bills-Chargers

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

Simms loves Josh so I like him too.

 

If Simms loves Josh, it's tough love. 

"not just be crazy and play like his ass is on fire and do stupid *****"  🤣
"Allen throws a dumb interception off his back foot"

"don't live on that tree branch" 🤣🤣

 

[Logic]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

We are 8-3. Our defense is not good.

 

A defense with as poor per drive numbers as ours is doing it’s fair share of bending and breaking.

 

No problems, just facts.

Your opinion makes it sound as if the performance of the offense and defense are static, rather than constantly changing and evolving as the season progresses.

Our defense was indeed "not good" for the first six weeks or so. It's been much better since then. 

The following Tweet sums it up. From bottom 3 in defensive DVOA to top 7. 

"Just facts".
 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Logic

[PrimeTime101]

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I did not.

 

They are 26th in plays allowed per drive. 24th in yards allowed per drive. 25th in points allowed per drive.

 

They have allowed 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Allowed 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games.

 

For reference, they allowed 2 400+ yard games through all of last year.

 

They kinda suck.

 

 

Yeah, but that's not answering the point you replied to.

 

He said they're rounding into shape in the last four or five games. Think if we looked at plays allowed/drive, yards allowed/drive and points allowed/drive over the last few weeks they'd be 26th, 24th and 25th in the league?  114 points allowed in the last five games, and that includes the Seahawks, Cards and Chargers. Think that's somewhere in the mid-twenties in rank? Ten defensive turnovers in the last five games. Think that's below average? 355.8 YPG during that time, which is 17th.

 

And yeah, "they have allowed 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Allowed 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games," as you say. Think that might have something to do with their last three games being against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Chargers?

 

They're look like they're coming around.

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, but that's not answering the point you replied to.

 

He said they're rounding into shape in the last four or five games. Think if we looked at plays allowed/drive, yards allowed/drive and points allowed/drive over the last few weeks they'd be 26th, 24th and 25th in the league?  114 points allowed in the last five games, and that includes the Seahawks, Cards and Chargers. Think that's somewhere in the mid-twenties in rank? Ten defensive turnovers in the last five games. Think that's below average? 355.8 YPG during that time, which is 17th.

 

And yeah, "they have allowed 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Allowed 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games," as you say. Think that might have something to do with their last three games being against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Chargers?

 

They're look like they're coming around.

Is your argument the Bills defense was “good” vs the Seahawks or Cardinals? If so, I disagree.

7 hours ago, Logic said:

Your opinion makes it sound as if the performance of the offense and defense are static, rather than constantly changing and evolving as the season progresses.

Our defense was indeed "not good" for the first six weeks or so. It's been much better since then. 

The following Tweet sums it up. From bottom 3 in defensive DVOA to top 7. 

"Just facts".
 

 

Same question.

[Thurman#1]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Is your argument the Bills defense was “good” vs the Seahawks or Cardinals? If so, I disagree.

Same question.

 

 

Disagree away.

 

They were really good against the Cardinals, with the exception of the Hail Mary, which was mostly lucky. Two turnovers and did  plenty to win until the Hail Mary.

 

Good against the Seahawks too. Four turnovers, for Pete's sake. They set up Allen and the offense for a bunch of their points.

 

Considering those are two of the absolute best offenses in football, yeah, they played well. Great? No. Good? Six turnovers in two games against two terrific offenses? Yeah.

 

And I noticed you didn't say anything about the Aaron Schatz tweet. Why is that?

 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Jukester]

Thanks for posting OP. Love Simms’ unabashed takes. He’s fairy bullish on the Bills and Allen and think they can go along way if they can continue their recent play. I think this is the general sense from a national perspective...will make playoffs and could be dangerous if they can continue to get their defensive and running games going consistently.  
 

“If I’m a bills fan , there’s a lot of positives to take away, the defense is playing better...but whoah, there’s a few times this year where we’ve seen Josh Allen manage a game a little bit and not just be crazy and play like his ass is on fire and do stupid *****, so that was cool to see.”

 

[Jukester]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Disagree away.

 

They were really good against the Cardinals, with the exception of the Hail Mary, which was mostly lucky. Two turnovers and did  plenty to win until the Hail Mary.

 

Good against the Seahawks too. Four turnovers, for Pete's sake. They set up Allen and the offense for a bunch of their points.

 

Considering those are two of the absolute best offenses in football, yeah, they played well. Great? No. Good? Six turnovers in two games against two terrific offenses? Yeah.

 

And I noticed you didn't say anything about the Aaron Schatz tweet. Why is that?

 

 

I’m with Thurm.  In today’s game with the crazy offenses out there, playing good defense is very relative. Our D is taking the ball away again, making timely plays, putting pressure on the Qb, even have been better against the run to some degree. Yes, they still give up yardage numbers but definitely showing overall improvement over the last quarter of games. And that’s with some injuries, e.g Milano.

[Bleed Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, Jukester said:

I’m with Thurm.  In today’s game with the crazy offenses out there, playing good defense is very relative. Our D is taking the ball away again, making timely plays, putting pressure on the Qb, even have been better against the run to some degree. Yes, they still give up yardage numbers but definitely showing overall improvement over the last quarter of games. And that’s with some injuries, e.g Milano.

Yep, and they're rounding into form at the best possible time of the season. Watch as that trajectory continues.

[Don Otreply]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

Our defense kinda sucks. Not sure how that can be underestimated.

Chans you bring such great joy to this board with your every post, thanks for being you big guy 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Chans you bring such great joy to this board with your every post, thanks for being you big guy 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

Unfortunately, we can’t all be Santa Claus.

[Malazan]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

I did not.

 

They are 26th in plays allowed per drive. 24th in yards allowed per drive. 25th in points allowed per drive.

 

They have allowed 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Allowed 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games.

 

For reference, they allowed 2 400+ yard games through all of last year.

 

They kinda suck.

 

So you're just bad at watching football. If you think you're a reality trooper fighting a lonely battle to bring truth to masses... I'll clue you in. You're not. You're probably just trying to push something down people's throats due to some issue not related to football. I don't know how you could watch the last game and think they didn't play well, but you do you. No on can take your opinions away from you. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by jeremy2020

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Disagree away.

 

They were really good against the Cardinals, with the exception of the Hail Mary, which was mostly lucky. Two turnovers and did  plenty to win until the Hail Mary.

 

Good against the Seahawks too. Four turnovers, for Pete's sake. They set up Allen and the offense for a bunch of their points.

 

Considering those are two of the absolute best offenses in football, yeah, they played well. Great? No. Good? Six turnovers in two games against two terrific offenses? Yeah.

 

And I noticed you didn't say anything about the Aaron Schatz tweet. Why is that?

 

 

They allowed buckets full of points and yards versus Arizona and Seattle. Not good. They got a couple turn overs. That was good.

 

Did you know the Bills defense is 7th in TO’s but still 24th and 25th in yards and points per drive? Imagine how bad you have to be to allow that many yards and points despite being top 7 in TO’s? We all know that turnovers are feast or famine and subject to luck. What happens if they don’t keep appearing? I’ll tell you, the 2011 Bills defense happens.

 

What is there to dispute about the DVOA stat? It is what it is.

3 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

So you're just bad at watching football. If you think you're a reality trooper fighting a lonely battle to bring truth to masses... I'll clue you in. You're not. You're probably just trying to push something down people's throats due to some issue not related to football. I don't know how you could watch the last game and think they didn't play well, but you do you. No on can take your opinions away from you. 

Having a decent game doesn’t mean they don’t kinda suck. Try not to take everything so personally, it’s just a game bud.

Edited December 4, 2020 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Some interesting stuff:

Bills led with the run and defense and Josh Allen was #3.  Said that should be encouraging because heading into December in B'lo, not going to be able to throw 40 times and put on a "laser light show" with Josh Allen's right arm.

The Chargers and the Bills almost took opposite approaches on defense:

-The Bills were aggressive, brought pressure, said we're going to confuse your young QB and force quick throws

-The Chargers were soft, played to give up no big plays, play sound and get pressure with front 4

-2:28 in he said one of his notes was that the Chargers were playing the Bills like they would play Mahomes and KC.  Said that the Chargers came out and lined up like the Seattle Cover 3 Scheme, Josh Allen probably looked out and said "ooh, I like this!" then "set hut! nope, we got 2 safeties back, Cover 4".  Said it was a good lesson for Allen and the Bills to handle this, and they did

-Josh Allen and the Bills showed that they could have patience in the short passing game. 

-It was positive to see Josh Allen show that he could play with high efficiency (18 of 24) and show that he could manage a game a little bit and (almost direct quote) "not just be crazy and play like his ass is on fire and do stupid *****" (ah, Chris....about that....)

-Said the team needs to protect Josh Allen from himself -"they have to be careful for him a little bit", because he's "a good soldier" and "a great team player" and "too much of a football player", and if you give him the ball when it's 3rd and short, he's going to lower his shoulder and try to get it

-"We saw the play where he rolls his ankle...just go down, Big Guy...GO DOWN! You're too damned good and important to the team now!"

Said to his cohost: "Have you met him?  You'd feel better about it if you met him..he's a Big Sucka.  But you're still the QB, it's still the NFL, don't live on that tree branch"

-The other side, was it the Chargers Offense or the Bills Defense that was the story?  Simms says it's the Bills Defense.  Says about 4 weeks ago, things changed.  The first 6 weeks, "teams cracked the code" every week, they were playing simple.  They're healthier now, they're playing better, but McDermott has gotten back to a lot of the things they did the last 2 years - "the master" at rushing 4 or 5 against 5 blockers yet someone's always free, and I don't know what it is, it's a zone coverage, but somehow they're always dropping where his receivers are.

 

Interesting listen.

 

Also interesting contrast to the pre-game predictions against the 49ers where he picks the Niners, saying we can't handle their run game and our run game isn't good enough.

 

 

Yeah, it's fun listening to someone who likes Allen and the Bills, and this is very good stuff, as far as it goes.  

 

Where I think it falls short is that Simms expresses surprise that the defense has gotten better.  He said he didn't know what the defense was doing early in the season.  Well, I'm a little surprised, too, but we shouldn't be.   

 

What we're seeing is what McDermott does.  His coaches and players are trained to find the best way they can win this week's game.  Every week, they're working on a new style of play to attack what they're going to see from the opponent.  Early in the season they get mismatches, where what they try to do doesn't work, for one reason or another.   So they learn from that and move on to next week's game.   

 

The result of this approach is that when December comes, the Bills have learned to do a lot of different things on offense and on defense.  They can play different styles, and they've learned approaches to the game that will work on offense this week, or on defense.  Preparing for the 49ers, they're saying "hey, remember what we did against Tennessee's run game?   It was a good idea but didn't quite work because of a, b, c.  Let's adjust it; we'll still use a and c, but let's go with e and q from the Seahawks game.  Here's how we'll disguise it.  

 

The Bills are built to be better in December than in October.  It shouldn't be a surprise.  

[Don Otreply]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

Your opinion makes it sound as if the performance of the offense and defense are static, rather than constantly changing and evolving as the season progresses.

Our defense was indeed "not good" for the first six weeks or so. It's been much better since then. 

The following Tweet sums it up. From bottom 3 in defensive DVOA to top 7. 

"Just facts".
 

 

Don’t tell folks that defenses get better when healthy and gain more continuity with there new teammates...  hush 😂

 

Go Bills!!!

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

He does say "in an upset" though.

 

I do like Simms' analysis and hearing his take now has me worried about the game. I think the Bills have enough firepower to pull out a win in a close game so we will see. I of course want the Bills to win this one, especially as it is on MNF. 

 

if the Bills do win, I think Simms will pick them over every other opponent for the rest of the season except the Steelers. 

I am very worried about this game. Despite their record, the Niners impress me (especially last week). Mullins isn’t good, but the rest of the team is.

[34-78-83]

Stats can really only be compared against other stats during the context of the season they are part of. The Bills D has gone from awful early on to slightly above average in the 2020 league, statistically. I tend to judge by watching the actual game and understanding what the plan is against the opponent of the week, and knowing who is playing and who is not, and then follow it with watching film reviews. That's just me. When arguments are all based on points and yards and other numbers with no meat (ie. talk about whats happening on the field), it really shouldn't sway an argument much. It's more of a piece of information that could be used within an argument to help prove whatever the point is.

 

Simms does a good job of analysis based on what is occurring on the field.

Edited December 4, 2020 by 34-78-83

[nucci]

why is December the month everyone says you won't be able to throw?  There have been some very windy games this year that made it difficult to throw before December. Kelly had some of his best games in snow and bitter cold conditions in December and January. Another annoying cliche people use.

Edited December 4, 2020 by nucci

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

So you're just bad at watching football. If you think you're a reality trooper fighting a lonely battle to bring truth to masses... I'll clue you in. You're not. You're probably just trying to push something down people's throats due to some issue not related to football. I don't know how you could watch the last game and think they didn't play well, but you do you. No on can take your opinions away from you. 

 

This needs to be said again.  Do you know what the win probability is when a team commits 3 back-to-back offensive turnovers in the 4Q?  It has to be very small.

 

Bosa mic'd up said "Not Today, Buddy" when Allen tried to juke him and run by.  The Bills D collectively gulped a massive shot of defensive Viagra and  said "Not Today, Chargers!" - then they did it Again.  And Again.

 

It was an epic example of Nutting Up on D, and another demonstration of how looking at bulk numbers over a season can conceal important facts about performance.

 

 

12 minutes ago, nucci said:

why is December the month everyone says you won't be able to throw?  There have been some very windy games this year that made it difficult to throw before December. Kelly had some of his best games in snow and bitter cold conditions in December and January. Another annoying cliche people use.

 

I see your point, but I think December has the higher probability for "windy and cold" not just in Buffalo, but across the NE

 

I think the more general point is that if a team doesn't demonstrate that they have a respectable rushing attack that opponents' D's must account for, they have a gap in their game that other teams can exploit by doubling down to take away something else they do well.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, it's fun listening to someone who likes Allen and the Bills, and this is very good stuff, as far as it goes.  

 

Where I think it falls short is that Simms expresses surprise that the defense has gotten better.  He said he didn't know what the defense was doing early in the season.  Well, I'm a little surprised, too, but we shouldn't be.   

 

What we're seeing is what McDermott does.  His coaches and players are trained to find the best way they can win this week's game.  Every week, they're working on a new style of play to attack what they're going to see from the opponent.  Early in the season they get mismatches, where what they try to do doesn't work, for one reason or another.   So they learn from that and move on to next week's game.   

 

The result of this approach is that when December comes, the Bills have learned to do a lot of different things on offense and on defense.  They can play different styles, and they've learned approaches to the game that will work on offense this week, or on defense.  Preparing for the 49ers, they're saying "hey, remember what we did against Tennessee's run game?   It was a good idea but didn't quite work because of a, b, c.  Let's adjust it; we'll still use a and c, but let's go with e and q from the Seahawks game.  Here's how we'll disguise it.  

 

The Bills are built to be better in December than in October.  It shouldn't be a surprise.  

 

What you say about McDermott's "continuous improvement" approach is true.

 

I think it's also true that at one point in the season it simply didn't look as though the Bills had the talent to turn it around.  Simms at one point said "the Bills have no one in the front 7 who is worth a damn".  At the point where he said it, it was harsh but it pretty much looked to be true.  Edmunds was playing like crap.  Milano, when he played, was playing like he had one arm tied down (maybe because he was).  1TDT was looking like 2009 after the Peters trade where the question was "can anyone on the Bills play L OT?"  Harrison Phillips wasn't getting it done.  Butler couldn't or wouldn't get it done.   AJ Klein was looking like a bust of a $18M FA signing at LB and the Bills plans for a future defensive core built around Phillips, Edwards, and Epenesa was looking like Dust in the Wind.

 

It's not just a "new style of play" that was needed, it looked as though capable hosses simply weren't in the barn.  Frazier and McDermott deserve a lot of credit for coming up with a combination of benchings, elevations, coaching-up, motivation, scheme responsibility shufflings, and some new formations, that seem to have turned things around.

 

I think it's pretty rare to have a team where someone who knows football and knows players as Simms does, and who is not given to throwing guys under the bus, will bluntly say something like "they don't have anyone on their front 7 who is worth a damn" - and then 6 weeks later without new signings or returns from multi-game IR, the defense seems to  have  turned it around.