The Mind of Josh Patrick Allen

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have no argument at all that the OL lost the trenches against the Chargers.  In fact, I think I commented elsewhere it was really striking to me that on Josh's INT, the whole line got shoved back something like 8-9 yds off the LOS (except Dawkins, who only lost 5).  I had to watch that 3 times because I couldn't believe it.  They got pwn'ed

 

The line really needs to stabilize and get some continuity.  This constant flux in the combination is simply not help Josh be kept upright.   

 

I thought the OL played their best against Arizona

[Coach Tuesday]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

The line really needs to stabilize and get some continuity.  This constant flux in the combination is simply not help Josh be kept upright.   

 

I thought the OL played their best against Arizona

Dawkins has been playing in the same spot basically his whole career.  He just got a monster extension.  There is no excuse for what he put out there against LAC.  Granted Bosa is an All Pro but Dawkins’ technique in pass pro was utter garbage.  He’s been a solid player this year but he needs to find “playoff-level consistency” in his game.  Can’t be having total stinkers like that.

[H2o]

Good post Hap, but I will take the bait on a couple of them. On example 1, Bosa was only about 2 yards away and already closing. About the only way Josh gets the ball to Davis is one of those dangerous Rodgers-esque flips of the football. The play was busted once Bosa had a clear path. Go down and live to fight another play. On example 2, the defender already has beaten his man inside and Josh is a half second away from getting nailed. If he chucks it up to Diggs off of his back foot, and it hangs in the air too long, then that CB possibly undercuts to make an INT. Then we're having the convo about Josh playing "Hero Ball" again. If Dawkins or whoever that is "helping" picks up that block then Josh is completing a bomb to Diggs on that play, possibly even for a TD if he leads Diggs properly towards the middle of the field. Example 3 is absolutely correct. Moss was the guy who should have gotten the ball. If the ball is thrown properly he's looking at 4 yards before first contact. And with Moss' propensity for lowering the boom on defenders I suspect he would end up with even more yardage after first contact. Things like this overall just show us how much better Josh can be. It's a scary thought for the rest of the NFL because his completion percentage is already up 10% from last year and he's basically matched his entire TD totals from 2019 in just 11 games, and UNDOUBTEDLY against harder competition. It's a great time to be a Bills fan. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by H2o

[TBBills]

I just cannot get angry when Josh doesn't use the check down... It was the problem we had for years with a bad offense when the QBs always checked down.

 

I understand he should do it a little more often but just let the kid play, he will learn, he has shown the ability to do that year after year. Full trust in Josh.

Edited December 3, 2020 by TBBills

[TH3]

You could look at every play for every QB and think they could do better. Just because the birds eye A22 shows people "open" doesn't mean the can QB see it at ground level. 

Criminy - the dude has climbed into the top 5 of QB's.

 

Josh on HOTSEAT!

 

[Casey D]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Maybe that is reason for helmet change with white faces masks - a way to make it easier for Allen to identify players.

Could be.  That is why they went to red helmets back in the day, as Joe Ferguson could pick up the red helmets better than the white.

[Kwai San]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

What's in your head, in your head? -Cranberries

 

I was inspired to do a little play diving by the Joey Bosa thread showing his reaction to tackling and possibly injuring Josh Allen. I looked at that play then went looking for plays where Allen took a bad tackle or a sack to see what his alternatives might have been.  We know Josh "hates to lose" on a play, but was that his only option?  Did he have to either drop and tuck around the ball, or fight like a crazed badger and risk injury?

 

Example 1:

1st and 10 at the LAC15.  Joey Bosa.  Corkscrews Josh into the ground.  Josh is fighting to stay up and pass to Gabe Davis.

The Sofa Spud Brigade gasps in horror and screams in unison:  "Be alright.  Please be alright, Josh Allen"

Followed by screaming "Go down!  Tuck the ball and go down for *****'s sake!! Why the ***** won't you just go down?"

 

We know some of what's in his head.  He wants to win on every play, he doesn't want to go down.  He can smell the endzone.  He can get there. 

 

Look here.  I don't think he has to go down.  He can win without putting his body at risk.  

Bosa is still 4 yds away.  Gabe Davis has the "mail flag" up and is college open.  Doesn't have to be a pinpoint throw.  Gabe would have 2 men to beat and a blocker, " 'lil Dirty", downfield.   Josh would be even further away from Bosa and have Moss to block if, at the point where he saw Bosa and pulled the ball from Moss, he backstepped and looked for Davis instead of deciding to keep it and take on Bosa himself.

 

At best, TD Gabe Davis!  At worst, maybe 2nd and 3-5.   Maybe Bosa hits Josh late and draws a flag. 

Drive ends with a FG after Bills take a penalty on the play to add insult to injury. Then Barkley takes a sack, making it 3rd and 22.  Could very well have been a TD, that drive.

 

"What's in your head?  In your head?"

 

Example 2 (earlier same drive):

1st and 10 at the Buff 32.  Josh is sacked and ruled to fumble, overturned to incomplete pass.  In the process, he hits his hand on someone's helmet and could have injured his hand a la Tua.  Josh wants Diggs deep - that "chunk play".  That's Diggs above the "Buffalo Hump" and he does beat his guy and get wide open, but too late. Allen must sense that the protection is crumbling.  Shouldn't he just throw it away?

 

Look here.  He doesn't have to take that sack OR throw it away.

That's Gilliam, "college open on the 32" with the mail flag up.  He's got his guy beat to the "c'mon Man, that guy's gotta eat!" point.  Chance is good he can make 5 yards.  Instead, Allen waits as protection breaks down, hoping something will develop downfield, and the play ends with Gilliam in a frantic footrace 30 yds back towards our own goal after the ricocheting ball.  Gilliam Balls Out, lays a hard lick on #99 and grabs the ball.  But he could have been racing in the productive (for us) direction.

 

"What's in your head?  In your head?"

 

Example 3

2nd and 11 on the LAC 15, 9:39 in the 2nd half.  Allen runs for 8 yds then out of bounds with Bosa chasing him like a Bulldozer after a Cowdozer.

 

Allen wants a throw to the endzone.  He's looking down Beasley.  Diggs also looks likely to win open on the R.  But Morse is beat, Willams is about to  get beat.  Protection won't last long enough.

 

Look here:

Isn't that Dawson Knox, lurking on the 10 yd line like a broaching Orca Whale, and couldn't Allen manage to throw that where Knox or no one could get it?  At worst, if Allen throws it to his right and low, Knox could dive for it and get 5 yards.  At best, he could break a tackle and get more.  Knox remains "QB Friendly" and become even more open as Allen begins to run.
If Allen for some reason has ruled Dawson out as a target (but truly - if this is the case - just get the guy off the field and put someone on there whom Allen will throw to), Allen also has Moss as an outlet:

Moss has so freakin' much green in front of him, he could plant a Christmas Tree Farm and decorate one of them as he runs by.  OK I exaggerate - but only slightly.

 

All of this is particularly on my mind because of the Carson Wentz thread and some of the stuff people found there - the Baldy's Breakdown tweets pointing out the open guys Wentz overlooks while forcing throws downfield into coverage and throwing picks, and the discussion of "What Wentz Wrong?" by film guys like Brett Kollman.  It's completely true that Wentz has a struggling OL and lesser WR now.  But I've changed my point of view - he still has enough weapons that get open enough while he has time enough that a lot of it's on him.

 

This is a problem Allen has always had, to the point where I once facetiously suggested that the RBs and TEs be equipped with 10' long orange fiberglass poles like a Syracuse firehydrant, to assist in Josh in his visual identification of potential targets.  And Allen his first year legit struggled making those throws!  But he could make them last year, and he can make them now.

 

This is a problem Allen and the coaching staff can 100% address,  but they need to ***** Do It.  Because otherwise, when protection breaks down and 1 or 2 WR are hurt and Allen is throwing to a lesser cast of WR with less time to set up and make a careful mechanically correct throw, he WILL go down the Wentz path.  And none of us want to see that.

 

What's in your Head, in your Head?

 

Nice job Hap - good read, good take. 

 

The biggest problem is JA is going thru his reads - who knows where he is looking when those mail flags are waving?  It is a fast fast paced game and not a whole lotta time to assess.  If he took the TB12 route he woulda hit at least 2 or maybe all 3 of those throws......time will tell where JA progresses too.  Meanwhile Jesus Warner would do well to perhaps sit with you for a few as he thinks he is the Lord Pontificator regarding QB skills.

[Dr. Who]

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I have noticed several times he sees the check down, almost look like he even thinks about it but then just can’t pass up using that rock star arm. 
 

See the same with Rodgers even today. 
 

If I could throw the ball, extend plays, absorb contact and run like josh I don’t know if I’d ever check it down. 
 

 

For the old timers, classic Trek has this thing about how catastrophic it would be for matter and anti-matter to meet. Let's hope Josh Allen never shakes hands with Trent Edwards.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

34 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

Nice job Hap - good read, good take. 

 

The biggest problem is JA is going thru his reads - who knows where he is looking when those mail flags are waving?  It is a fast fast paced game and not a whole lotta time to assess.  If he took the TB12 route he woulda hit at least 2 or maybe all 3 of those throws......time will tell where JA progresses too.  Meanwhile Jesus Warner would do well to perhaps sit with you for a few as he thinks he is the Lord Pontificator regarding QB skills.

 

Ah, Warner.  I know a couple players and associated (kids of coach) and have friends who know people quite well from the Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" years (note language - not claiming to be friends).  There are people who were on those Rams teams that I'd dearly love to meet and have a beer with. 

 

Let's just say Warner's not on my list.  Not Warner, not his wife, just No.

 

That said, we all assess people from the lens of our own best skills and experience.  And Warner's best skill came from his Arena ball days and lived between his ears.  He is a world champion field processor and decision maker.  I don't think he really made progressive reads.  It was like *click* REACT *click* REACT for him, processing the whole field, all the reads at once.  So ability to see the whole field and process quickly is the trait in a young QB he most values.  And Josh isn't there yet.  Josh may never be there.  He's gone from, as Coach Tuesday said above, "first or second read, RUN" to going through his progressions now.  He still locks on some times.  And he's not reached a point where he makes a quick decision that it's not gonna be there in time EJECT EJECT outlet.

 

Warner...I don't want to say overvalues his type of field vision, because it's very important...but certainly other QB have had great success who don't have it.  And I think Warner undervalues some of the skills Josh does have that make him special.  (Also it's still the media narrative in some places to dis Josh IMO)

 

But there are times when Josh has got to realize that he can't go through his progressions or wait for his first or second read to come open. He's got to know his "answer", his outlet, and go there, NOW.  That is certainly a better solution on 1st or 2nd down when the Bills have the lead, rather than trying to make something happen himself at the risk of injury.

 

So I hope the Bills coaches can instill that in him.  Hell, even throwing it away or sliding on a busted play would be better, but if he hasta try to make a play, the RB or the TE Josh.  They're your friends.  Know where they are, Go there. 

 

Otherwise you're a bad OL and an injured star wideout away from the Wentz Wormhole.

[Jauronimo]

11 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I would say that overall Allen is light years ahead this year in terms of going through his progressions, finding the outlets and taking what the defense gives him.  His issue in the past was that if the first read wasn’t there he’d scramble.  Lot less of that this year.  To my mind his biggest problem is still the “hero ball” - it’s psychological - something or a series of things happens that causes his heart to start pounding and his clock to speed up.  Maybe a penalty on him for spinning the ball on an opponent, maybe a relentless pass rush, maybe a drop or a turnover, whatever it is - all of a sudden in his mind he’s back at Wyoming and it’s him and 10 scrubs rushing into battle and he feels like he has to win the game himself on every single play.  And for whatever reason, even when it’s one of THOSE games - he still manages to find Serenity Now with 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter.

 

It’s psychological but it’s not an addiction to deep shots, is my point.

It leads to some of his biggest WTF moments but it also turns into highlight reel plays.  In 2020, I think his hero ball has been far more positive than not.  I would still like to see him show some understanding of game situation.  Like maybe not playing hero ball late in the fourth quarter when the game is in hand as he did on the late INT against the Chargers.   

[fasteddie]

11 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

On that last still, I agree he’s lost trust in Knox.  Even the TD catch was an adventure for 88 - he’s just a knucklehead.  The outlet throw to Moss would’ve put the ball on his right shoulder about a yard from the sideline, likely resulting in a 2 yard gain.  Have no issue with Allen’s decision to tuck and run there and he picked up 8.

For all the bad plays Knox has made this year, the TD catch was one of his best. The throw was way behind him, and he made a great adjustment to make the catch. Sometimes Josh just makes easy throws difficult. 

[Rigotz]

I love the effort you put into this thread, thank you for that.

On the other hand, taking still frames of "open" receivers on any given play will always make a QB look bad.

It doesn't matter if he's Drew Brees or Tom Brady, every QB misses open WRs on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th option on almost every play.

 

We don't know which order Josh was told to look to on each play, so you might be pointing out open guys who are the 4th or 5th option, with a ton of pressure on him. I admire the effort, but the only way to actually analyze QB's ability to read coverage is to capture live film and watch the QB's head to see if he's reading his progressions but missing open guys. Still frames will never tell that story.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

unless it was an RPO with a flat pass as well.  I notice he likes the keeper on run option. That one where he beat 4.34 Micheal Davis to the pylon rocking a knee brace, I think the read was to hand off Because outside contain played QB

and moss had an Amazon sprinter van size lane to the end zone, but he just willed himself to a TD anyway. 

 

I thought it was an RPO with a flat pass option myself, but of course I could be wrong.  I'm def. "look at the choo-choo" level in sussing these things out.  But Josh's hand-off looks different to me vs. a called run.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

I love the effort you put into this thread, thank you for that.

On the other hand, taking still frames of "open" receivers on any given play will always make a QB look bad.

It doesn't matter if he's Drew Brees or Tom Brady, every QB misses open WRs on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th option on almost every play.

 

We don't know which order Josh was told to look to on each play, so you might be pointing out open guys who are the 4th or 5th option, with a ton of pressure on him. I admire the effort, but the only way to actually analyze QB's ability to read coverage is to capture live film and watch the QB's head to see if he's reading his progressions but missing open guys. Still frames will never tell that story.

 

I 100% understand and appreciate your point about still frames.  It would be cool if I had the programs and know-how to capture short video clips, but, I don't.  I think the relevant counterpoint is that I'm not making my assessment based on stills captured to "make the QB look bad", but on watching the video, usually several times, and where available, the play chart, then trying to choose a still that captures what I believe I see.  I try to give the down and distance and game time so that anyone who has gamepass or youtube or gets a free trial can go look and decide for themselves whether I'm full of hooey or just mistaken 😈

 

You're correct that we don't know Josh's reads.  My point is that there are times where it's clear the protection is hosed and the reads don't matter.  Josh has to throw the reads out and react.  And when that happens, Josh's reaction needs to include hitting his outlets, not going all "Sebastian the Crab" (You want Something Done, you Got to Do It Yourself).  These guys can't be the 4th or 5th option then, they aren't really designed into the play to be the 4th or 5th option to my understanding, they're designed in to give Josh an "answer" when things are AFU.

 

The problem as I see it is Josh doesn't believe, in his heart, that his teammates, professional football players chosen for their skills, are a better option than he is when the play breaks down.  That's been true for most of Josh's career, HS, JUCO, College, into the NFL.  And sometimes, he's still right in the NFL!   Josh is an amazing athlete!   Sebastian the Crab orchestrated a great song!  But the margin is much slimmer in the NFL, these guys are all amazing athletes.  The take home is that a slightly lesser athlete in the right position with the right space around him can be the better choice, certainly a better choice than an injury to Josh or a ball-security risk.  And at the end of the day, "The Best Ability is Availability".  Josh can't foolishly put that at risk.

 

It's a paradox.  I'm sure if you sat Josh down, and asked him about Dawson Knox, or Reggie Gilliam, or Motor, or Moss, he'd tell you sincerely he loves those guys and they're gonna be big stars.  But faced with the opportunity to help make them big stars by getting them the ball with the chance for yards or a TD, he bets on himself.  The problem is how to persuade him to look for more opportunities to bet on his teammates.  In my opinion.

[SCBills]

52 minutes ago, fasteddie said:

For all the bad plays Knox has made this year, the TD catch was one of his best. The throw was way behind him, and he made a great adjustment to make the catch. Sometimes Josh just makes easy throws difficult. 

 

Chess, not Checkers... Josh knows Knox struggles with concentration on routine balls so he threw it to where Knox had to make the spectacular adjustment play.  

 

(Or, at least, that's what i'm telling myself)

[Jerome007]

12 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I have noticed several times he sees the check down, almost look like he even thinks about it but then just can’t pass up using that rock star arm. 
 

See the same with Rodgers even today. 
 

If I could throw the ball, extend plays, absorb contact and run like josh I don’t know if I’d ever check it down. 

 

I much much prefer his style (and Rodger's), but sometimes the checkdown guy can gain serious yards. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Chess, not Checkers... Josh knows Knox struggles with concentration on routine balls so he threw it to where Knox had to make the spectacular adjustment play.  

 

(Or, at least, that's what i'm telling myself)

Ha ha. Maybe you're right!

 

It looked to me like he was trying to KO the guy. That ball was thrown HARD

Edited December 3, 2020 by Jerome007

[JoshAllenReceipts]

Josh Allen is one of the smartest, brightest, most intelligent players in the entire NFL.

 

Both his real life IQ and Football IQ are through the roof.

 

10/10 in terms of Intelligence.

[RiotAct]

Zoo-ooo-mbie, Zoo-ooo-mbie, Zoo-ooo-mbie, Zoo-ooo-mbie, whoaa, whoa, whoa, whoa, ::loud gurgling noises::

[YattaOkasan]

@Hapless Bills Fan good discussion.  I think looking at stills is a very tough way to go about this exercise. 

 

To me these are just examples of the defense disguising effectively against Josh.  You seem to be saying "What is he thinking?" but to me if youre thinking then youre doing it wrong.  He is reacting to what he expects the coverage to be and what he gets. 

 

I think he has always been able to go through his progressions, but the story this year is he is doing that more consistently this year.  But as for why is he not hitting so and so on this play; its because he is reading the coverage and targeting receivers based on his reads.  His read could be wrong but I think he should still trust it (learn to read better rather than not trust your eyes).  This is exactly what happens on the pass interference at the start of the game.  He think he has cover 3 but he gets quarters, he decides to not look for a check down and goes for Diggs. 

 

All of this works better when he gets time.  When youre in a scramble getting away seems to be the first priority and then second you get your eyes down field.  Your progressions sorta go out the window.  Note all this is my opinion i dont know much of anything about the QB position other than what i take in from free content.  

[Figster]

5 hours ago, TBBills said:

I just cannot get angry when Josh doesn't use the check down... It was the problem we had for years with a bad offense when the QBs always checked down.

 

I understand he should do it a little more often but just let the kid play, he will learn, he has shown the ability to do that year after year. Full trust in Josh.

Buffalo needs to run the football and checking the ball down to the RB helps get the run game going IMO. I thought the Buffalo Bills did a much better job vs the Chargers getting Moss and Singletary more involved in the Offense IMO.

 

Big plays can and will occur on a check down... 

 

(Holy Trent Batman did I just ask for more check downs)

Edited December 3, 2020 by Figster