The Mind of Josh Patrick Allen

[Hapless Bills Fan]

What's in your head, in your head? -Cranberries

 

I was inspired to do a little play diving by the Joey Bosa thread showing his reaction to tackling and possibly injuring Josh Allen. I looked at that play then went looking for plays where Allen took a bad tackle or a sack to see what his alternatives might have been.  We know Josh "hates to lose" on a play, but was that his only option?  Did he have to either drop and tuck around the ball, or fight like a crazed badger and risk injury?

 

Example 1:

1st and 10 at the LAC15.  Joey Bosa.  Corkscrews Josh into the ground.  Josh is fighting to stay up and pass to Gabe Davis.

The Sofa Spud Brigade gasps in horror and screams in unison:  "Be alright.  Please be alright, Josh Allen"

Followed by screaming "Go down!  Tuck the ball and go down for *****'s sake!! Why the ***** won't you just go down?"

 

We know some of what's in his head.  He wants to win on every play, he doesn't want to go down.  He can smell the endzone.  He can get there. 

 

Look here.  I don't think he has to go down.  He can win without putting his body at risk.  

Bosa is still 4 yds away.  Gabe Davis has the "mail flag" up and is college open.  Doesn't have to be a pinpoint throw.  Gabe would have 2 men to beat and a blocker, " 'lil Dirty", downfield.   Josh would be even further away from Bosa and have Moss to block if, at the point where he saw Bosa and pulled the ball from Moss, he backstepped and looked for Davis instead of deciding to keep it and take on Bosa himself.

 

At best, TD Gabe Davis!  At worst, maybe 2nd and 3-5.   Maybe Bosa hits Josh late and draws a flag. 

Drive ends with a FG after Bills take a penalty on the play to add insult to injury. Then Barkley takes a sack, making it 3rd and 22.  Could very well have been a TD, that drive.

 

"What's in your head?  In your head?"

 

Example 2 (earlier same drive):

1st and 10 at the Buff 32.  Josh is sacked and ruled to fumble, overturned to incomplete pass.  In the process, he hits his hand on someone's helmet and could have injured his hand a la Tua.  Josh wants Diggs deep - that "chunk play".  That's Diggs above the "Buffalo Hump" and he does beat his guy and get wide open, but too late. Allen must sense that the protection is crumbling.  Shouldn't he just throw it away?

 

Look here.  He doesn't have to take that sack OR throw it away.

That's Gilliam, "college open on the 32" with the mail flag up.  He's got his guy beat to the "c'mon Man, that guy's gotta eat!" point.  Chance is good he can make 5 yards.  Instead, Allen waits as protection breaks down, hoping something will develop downfield, and the play ends with Gilliam in a frantic footrace 30 yds back towards our own goal after the ricocheting ball.  Gilliam Balls Out, lays a hard lick on #99 and grabs the ball.  But he could have been racing in the productive (for us) direction.

 

"What's in your head?  In your head?"

 

Example 3

2nd and 11 on the LAC 15, 9:39 in the 2nd half.  Allen runs for 8 yds then out of bounds with Bosa chasing him like a Bulldozer after a Cowdozer.

 

Allen wants a throw to the endzone.  He's looking down Beasley.  Diggs also looks likely to win open on the R.  But Morse is beat, Willams is about to  get beat.  Protection won't last long enough.

 

Look here:

Isn't that Dawson Knox, lurking on the 10 yd line like a broaching Orca Whale, and couldn't Allen manage to throw that where Knox or no one could get it?  At worst, if Allen throws it to his right and low, Knox could dive for it and get 5 yards.  At best, he could break a tackle and get more.  Knox remains "QB Friendly" and become even more open as Allen begins to run.
If Allen for some reason has ruled Dawson out as a target (but truly - if this is the case - just get the guy off the field and put someone on there whom Allen will throw to), Allen also has Moss as an outlet:

Moss has so freakin' much green in front of him, he could plant a Christmas Tree Farm and decorate one of them as he runs by.  OK I exaggerate - but only slightly.

 

All of this is particularly on my mind because of the Carson Wentz thread and some of the stuff people found there - the Baldy's Breakdown tweets pointing out the open guys Wentz overlooks while forcing throws downfield into coverage and throwing picks, and the discussion of "What Wentz Wrong?" by film guys like Brett Kollman.  It's completely true that Wentz has a struggling OL and lesser WR now.  But I've changed my point of view - he still has enough weapons that get open enough while he has time enough that a lot of it's on him.

 

This is a problem Allen has always had, to the point where I once facetiously suggested that the RBs and TEs be equipped with 10' long orange fiberglass poles like a Syracuse firehydrant, to assist in Josh in his visual identification of potential targets.  And Allen his first year legit struggled making those throws!  But he could make them last year, and he can make them now.

 

This is a problem Allen and the coaching staff can 100% address,  but they need to ***** Do It.  Because otherwise, when protection breaks down and 1 or 2 WR are hurt and Allen is throwing to a lesser cast of WR with less time to set up and make a careful mechanically correct throw, he WILL go down the Wentz path.  And none of us want to see that.

 

What's in your Head, in your Head?

[Paul Costa]

Enjoyed it. Shows Josh has room to grow. Enjoy the ride 😀😀😀😀

[Coach Tuesday]

I mean, I’ll just comment on the first play - there is no physical way for him to turn and plant his feet to throw to Davis in time.  Bosa is that fast and has a yard to cover.  Josh is running right with his right shoulder forward and his feet in a running stance.  He still has to stop, pivot, bring his right shoulder back behind his body and then throw.  Bosa is 3-5 feet away and closing at full speed.  At least from that still, Allen was DOA.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I have noticed several times he sees the check down, almost look like he even thinks about it but then just can’t pass up using that rock star arm. 
 

See the same with Rodgers even today. 
 

If I could throw the ball, extend plays, absorb contact and run like josh I don’t know if I’d ever check it down. 
 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Coach Tuesday]

Second still - deep shot was called.  Allen’s eyes are downfield.  Dawkins and the RB are responsible for the RDE (guessing it was Bosa again) and the two of them couldn’t sustain a halfway decent block - he’s now up the gut coming right at Allen’s face.  Gilliam is not “college open” - you’re woefully misusing the term - there’s a dude right on him and he’s not in Allen’s line of sight, anyhow, because he’s not the read on that play.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I mean, I’ll just comment on the first play - there is no physical way for him to turn and plant his feet to throw to Davis in time.  Bosa is that fast and has a yard to cover.  Josh is running right with his right shoulder forward and his feet in a running stance.  He still has to stop, pivot, bring his right shoulder back behind his body and then throw.  Bosa is 3-5 feet away and closing at full speed.  At least from that still, Allen was DOA.

I think he was saying don’t run right on read option fake like he did and throw immediately..

[JGMcD2]

Great post, and really insightful. Love the visuals. It’s all super relevant and real.

 

You covered everything very well and I agree with almost all of it. The hardest thing on our end is knowing how the play is designed and what Josh’s queues are on each play. 
 

I think the first play was a designed run all the way and when Josh saw it wasn’t going to work, he tried to make something happen. The issue is he’s looking RUN before the snap and then as he’s going down he sees Gabe and tries to make a play. He was never thinking PASS from the jump. Even if it was designed to have a pass option, Josh’s first read so to speak was run. It got blown up pretty quick and he tried to make something happen when he should have just “ate it.” 
 

As for the entire post, I’ll try and address my thoughts from a development perspective. Overall what I’ve learned in my time in player development is that there are macro and micro developments. I’m applying this to a different sport than I work in, but I’ll give it a shot. 

 

Macro would be getting acclimated to the speed of the game, your assignments, playing a new position. These are overarching concepts, that may change week to week and can easily be coached up at the same time as trying to win during a season. It doesn’t necessarily require adjusting movement patterns, at least immensely. 

 

Micro would be something like throwing mechanics, route running, or footwork. This stuff is really hard to correct during the season. You can definitely do it and have small improvements, but these things are often habits for players and need to be broken. Unfortunately when you have a game once ever 7 days, it doesn’t matter what you do in practice because in a game you’re often going to revert to what is most comfortable AKA muscle memory (it’s harder over a 162 game schedule in baseball, but the same principle applies). Players almost never mess with these things in season because the movement patterns won’t stick. This type of development is going to take place in the off-season... I think they know it needs to be reinforced, I know it’s been a point of emphasis in the past and Josh HAS improved, but that needs to continue. 
 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I mean, I’ll just comment on the first play - there is no physical way for him to turn and plant his feet to throw to Davis in time.  Bosa is that fast and has a yard to cover.  Josh is running right with his right shoulder forward and his feet in a running stance.  He still has to stop, pivot, bring his right shoulder back behind his body and then throw.  Bosa is 3-5 feet away and closing at full speed.  At least from that still, Allen was DOA.

 

Agree from that still. 

But at the point where Allen saw Bosa and pulled the ball from Moss, I *believe* he could have stepped back and thrown.    And look, he wound up attempting a kind of shovel-pass while he was in Bosa's grasp - he surely could have done a better shovel pass in Davis' direction while NOT in Bosa's grasp, no? 

 

Davis is open enough that Allen can just put a ball where either Davis makes a play on it or it's thrown away.  Either outcome better than what happened.

[atlbillsfan1975]

He still has brain farts sometimes. Heck we all do. He is cutting down on them and getting better at understanding something is better than nothing. Kids good and only going to get better I think. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I think he was saying don’t run right on read option fake like he did and throw immediately..

It was a running play and he bailed, it got totally blown up.  The throw to Davis was a prayer.

[BruceVilanch]

[Coach Tuesday]

I guess my takeaway is still where I was at Sunday night - the offensive line lost so many individual matchups, with nearly every play a jailbreak, that Allen’s mental clock sped up and went haywire.  I don’t think Sunday’s game was a good evaluation exercise for 17. Dawkins didn’t deserve his game check.  Winters shouldn’t be in the league (remind me again why they cut Spain?).  Mongo was inconsistent and Williams, Knox and the backs missed their fair share of blocks as well.  The protection was horrible.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It was a running play and he bailed, it got totally blown up.  The throw to Davis was a prayer.

unless it was an RPO with a flat pass as well.  I notice he likes the keeper on run option. That one where he beat 4.34 Micheal Davis to the pylon rocking a knee brace, I think the read was to hand off Because outside contain played QB

and moss had an Amazon sprinter van size lane to the end zone, but he just willed himself to a TD anyway. 

[Coach Tuesday]

On that last still, I agree he’s lost trust in Knox.  Even the TD catch was an adventure for 88 - he’s just a knucklehead.  The outlet throw to Moss would’ve put the ball on his right shoulder about a yard from the sideline, likely resulting in a 2 yard gain.  Have no issue with Allen’s decision to tuck and run there and he picked up 8.

[BillnutinHouston]

I'm a bit skeptical of an analysis-by-snapshot that doesn't incorporate realtime timing/movement of the D nor the prescribed progression sequence that was set up for the QB on each play.

 

Is there any QB in the league that you couldn't similarly criticize using this method?  I doubt it.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

Was thinking the same thing...what’s in your head In your head.. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Second still - deep shot was called.  Allen’s eyes are downfield.  Dawkins and the RB are responsible for the RDE (guessing it was Bosa again) and the two of them couldn’t sustain a halfway decent block - he’s now up the gut coming right at Allen’s face.  Gilliam is not “college open” - you’re woefully misusing the term - there’s a dude right on him and he’s not in Allen’s line of sight, anyhow, because he’s not the read on that play.  

 

OK, I 100% cop to "woefully misusing" the College open term.  Fair cop, I don't watch a lot of college ball. 

 

All of these plays have a deep shot called as far as I can tell.   I get it they aren't the primary or secondary read. The point is, the plays all have outlets if protection is breaking down.  Josh stressed as a point of emphasis this off season "knowing where his answers were".   If Gilliam (or other checkdowns) aren't to be considered as possible receivers, why are they designed into the play, and why are they "putting up the flag"?  Isn't it because they're Josh's answers, when protection won't hold long enough for those deep shots or the deep shots don't develop as schemed?

 

That's the Wentz problem in a nutshell as I see it.  Wentz has a rocket arm and a mindset to "go for the gusto", and had great success with it behind a polished line that gave him time enough and with several top WR talents.  But now he's getting the Big Bucks, the line is injured and old, his best WR is injured and the WR well has run dry.  He needs those options, but he's never learned to seek them out. 

 

It's a problem, and a path I don't want to see Josh go down.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It was a running play and he bailed, it got totally blown up.  The throw to Davis was a prayer.

 

Again - if there wasn't a pass option outlet designed in in case the RPO got blown up, why is Davis signalling "open"?

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I 100% cop to "woefully misusing" the College open term.  Fair cop, I don't watch a lot of college ball. 

 

All of these plays have a deep shot called as far as I can tell.   I get it they aren't the primary or secondary read. The point is, the plays all have outlets if protection is breaking down.  Josh stressed as a point of emphasis this off season "knowing where his answers were".   If Gilliam (or other checkdowns) aren't to be considered as possible receivers, why are they designed into the play, and why are they "putting up the flag"?  Isn't it because they're Josh's answers, when protection won't hold long enough for those deep shots or the deep shots don't develop as schemed?

 

That's the Wentz problem in a nutshell as I see it.  Wentz has a rocket arm and a mindset to "go for the gusto", and had great success with it behind a polished line that gave him time enough and with several top WR talents.  But now he's getting the Big Bucks, the line is injured and old, his best WR is injured and the WR well has run dry.  He needs those options, but he's never learned to seek them out. 

 

It's a problem, and a path I don't want to see Josh go down.

 

 

I would say that overall Allen is light years ahead this year in terms of going through his progressions, finding the outlets and taking what the defense gives him.  His issue in the past was that if the first read wasn’t there he’d scramble.  Lot less of that this year.  To my mind his biggest problem is still the “hero ball” - it’s psychological - something or a series of things happens that causes his heart to start pounding and his clock to speed up.  Maybe a penalty on him for spinning the ball on an opponent, maybe a relentless pass rush, maybe a drop or a turnover, whatever it is - all of a sudden in his mind he’s back at Wyoming and it’s him and 10 scrubs rushing into battle and he feels like he has to win the game himself on every single play.  And for whatever reason, even when it’s one of THOSE games - he still manages to find Serenity Now with 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter.

 

It’s psychological but it’s not an addiction to deep shots, is my point.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I guess my takeaway is still where I was at Sunday night - the offensive line lost so many individual matchups, with nearly every play a jailbreak, that Allen’s mental clock sped up and went haywire.  I don’t think Sunday’s game was a good evaluation exercise for 17. Dawkins didn’t deserve his game check.  Winters shouldn’t be in the league (remind me again why they cut Spain?).  Mongo was inconsistent and Williams, Knox and the backs missed their fair share of blocks as well.  The protection was horrible.

 

I have no argument at all that the OL lost the trenches against the Chargers.  In fact, I think I commented elsewhere it was really striking to me that on Josh's INT, the whole line got shoved back something like 8-9 yds off the LOS (except Dawkins, who only lost 5).  I had to watch that 3 times because I couldn't believe it.  They got pwn'ed

 

I think it's been noticeable in some other games where Allen was unclear on the coverage - hesitated until a window closed or threw into trouble and got picked - he also overlooked the checkdowns that were designed into the play for just that circumstance.  AZ comes to mind.

 

In the end there may be a philosophical thing here.  My initial take on Wentz was 100% aligned with what you're saying here, that his OL was horrid, every play was a jailbreak, his WR are mediocre and can't get open etc.  Then I watched some breakdowns and changed my mind.  I can see that there were plays to be made, and Wentz didn't find them and make them.

 

This is the line Allen is going to play behind the rest of this season - in fact, it may be the best of the possible lines Allen could play behind this season.  If he's going to make it work and take us further into the playoffs, he's going to face other stout D's that cause "jailbreaks", so he needs to re-learn where his outlets are and when to take them.

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a problem Allen has always had, to the point where I once facetiously suggested that the RBs and TEs be equipped with 10' long orange fiberglass poles like a Syracuse firehydrant, to assist in Josh in his visual identification of potential targets.  And Allen his first year legit struggled making those throws!  But he could make them last year, and he can make them now.

 

Maybe that is reason for helmet change with white faces masks - a way to make it easier for Allen to identify players.