Interesting Note...Bills D rounding into form? From weeks 7-12 Bills have posted 7th best Defensive DVOA at -12.0%

[Protocal69]

58 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

for us novices here; did they get better, did a lot of others get worse.  I’m not familiar with any metrics where a 0.2% Improvement moves you past 23 other teams.. 

that’s what I kept trying to wrap my head around. Figured it was a typo

[Turk71]

30 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

that’s what I kept trying to wrap my head around. Figured it was a typo

They moved 24 percentage points from positive 12 to -12, positive is bad for the defense. I don't know their methods but I have definitely seen improvement and the Bills sacks and takeaways combined since week 7 are behind only the Saints.

 

edit. didn't see matter2003 already pointed it out on previous page

Edited December 3, 2020 by Turk71

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Regarding Star:

 

The Lotulelei "2021 half season" guarantee.......which now applies to 2022......is only guaranteed for injury.  

 

He simply got a $1.75M pay cut in 2020 in exchange for guaranteeing his 2020 salary.........which was about the best they could hope to get back.......because his unamortized bonus money made it untenable to just release him outright.  

 

The $2.5M injury guarantee was Star's agent getting Star a parachute in the event that he were injured in 2020.

 

As John Feliciano pointed out........Star opted out because his pay was guaranteed..........an unfortunate tactical error by Beane who didn't realize at the time that players would be allowed to opt out and get their 2020 salary pushed to 2021.

 

Going Forward:

 

Expect them to try to keep doing what they have done this season...........it's not a compromise..........it's a choice.  

 

With defenses employing nickel or dime defenses over 2/3 of the time you are obviously seeing teams go with just 2 LB's that can play 3 downs..........there is an inherent sacrifice in run defense that choice.

 

So in an era where there isn't really such a thing as a "running" down anymore........it makes sense for a 40 front to not have to switch out a run-defense-specialist-1T mid-series.

 

Get your DT's to do the 1T dirty work in small doses and in return for good work give them one-gap reps.

 

And then if and when the opponent goes to the pass on early downs you aren't left with a bad matchup on plays where the most damage can be done............or you don't get yourself caught running guys off the field and unprepared at the snap in a defensive switch when these high powered offenses go up tempo.

 

Nobody is pitching shutouts on defense anymore...........there are more first downs played than ever.........steady pass rush and coverage are what you hope for........and not having to substitute your front on a down to down basis is a lot more valuable now.   Especially to a team defense like the Bills.

 

 

 

Dude, please.

 

You say his unamortized bonus made it untenable to release him outright. Not true. He'd have cost them $7.8M in dead money. More, they could have spread that over two years. And his original contract called for $6.25M and he was due a roster bonus of $500K. In other words, they would have lost about $1 million overall. That was very very far from untenable when they did the new deal on February 11th. They still had about $80 mill on the cap at that point. So to say that it was untenable to cut him is simply untrue.

 

Not only was it tenable, it would have actually saved them money that first year if they'd cut him after the deadline. The reason they didn't cut him was the simplest in the world, they wanted to keep him.

 

So your argument is that they didn't want to lose $1 million by releasing him ... so their way of handling that was to give him yet more guaranteed, making him yet harder to cut. Sorry, dude, it simply doesn't make sense in any world. If you want to cut a guy, you don't give him a longer guarantee, not if your brain is larger than a lentil.

 

And you are greatly misquoting Feliciano when you say that Star opted out because his pay was guaranteed. Nonsense. Was that a factor? Sure, maybe. Know what the major factor was? I'll give you a hint, it has killed 250,000 Americans and it's still going. Let's see a link to where Feliciano says the reason he opted out was because his pay was guaranteed.

 

"A league where there isn't really such a thing as a running down anymore" you say? Yeah, fair enough. Ask Tennessee when their running downs are. First, second, third and fourth downs.

 

Yes, passing is the priority. But you act as if this is something new. It's very far from new. It's been so for about 20 years now, and it certainly was true when they signed Star to that $50m contract. Last year the team with the lowest pass percentage was passing around 42.5% of the time (Ravens) and the highest pass percentage was 65.4% (Falcons), with the average and median about 57%. This year 46.0% for the lowest passing percentage (Ravens) and the highest is 64.9% (Bears). Median and average are both, again, about 67%. There has been very little change.

 

Yes, passing is the priority. Has been for years and years. But if you abandon run defense, the good teams will be thrilled to say, "Hey, thanks for the free six yards. We'll take that all day." That's what Kansas City did to us. Remind me, what down was the running down for the Chiefs against us when they rushed 46 times?

 

You're missing the point on Star. A guy like Star is precisely what you need if you want to commit most of your resources to the passing game. Commit them all to the passing game and you watch the pitiful Patriots offense run us over and nearly win the game. If Star is there, he makes it much tougher to run so you can then use the rest of your front four guys who are lighter and better at pass defense  and yet still be decent at stopping the run. No Star and teams can just bully their way down the field until you have to start using eight man boxes and then they go back to the pass.

 

You need a guy like Star on downs when they can run or pass. With him in there, he's destructive enough against the run that your otherwise light front can handle it.  When you know they'll pass you yank him out.

 

Suggesting that you "get your DT's to do the 1T dirty work in small doses and in return for good work give them one-gap reps," ignores the fact that none of them are good at space-eating. Zimmer appears to be about the best we have and he's not good.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The improved LB play has really stood out and gotten a lot of attention.

 

But they made a decision this offseason to load up on athletic DT's and try to be more of a pressure defense(as mentioned in your OP)........and now that they are familiar with what they are being asked to do they are getting more pressure as a front and doing a better job in run defense as well.   Run D is mostly want-to and technique and with the Bills rotating 9 DL all game they shouldn't be too worried about them getting worn down by the run.

 

I have been teasing the people who mistakenly think they miss Star Lotulelei.........but everything they have done since the end of last season has said they don't value that traffic cone 1T any longer.

 

1) They cut Star's pay

2) They signed pressure guys Jefferson and Butler

3) They cut Vincent Taylor at the end of camp

4) They have games where they de-activate the only true 1T they have in Phillips(who is actually a tackler when healthy)

5) They even rotate the undersized Oliver between the the 1T(and sometimes nose) and 3T.

 

And at the peak of their in-season struggles what did they do?    

 

They added an undersized hustling DT in Justin Zimmer(instead of finding another big body) and played 6 guys in the box against the Chiefs.

 

It's hard to play a 4-2 in today's NFL and have one of the 4 be incapable of making plays behind the LOS.

 

The current top 6 seeded teams in the NFL are the top 6 scoring teams.

 

You aren't very likely to win the SB unless you can outscore the best teams..............and since points come in the passing game that's what you have to be disproportionately focused on stopping.

 

 

This is a good post. I think what happened early on is as well as injuries the linebackers had to make an adjustment to not having the 1T traffic cone as you put it out there. It does slightly change what you need your linebackers to do and I think Edmunds in particular was back to the rookie version where his head was swimming. He really seems to have settled the last 3 weeks and that has made a big difference. Klein finally coming to play helps too and I do think the Dline itself has slowly gotten better. They played their best game of the season last Sunday IMO.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I stopped watching the defense and changed the channel the past 3 weeks but it might be time to give them another chance. 2nd round of drywall is done and I still have extra materials if another Hail Mary gets completed. 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

that’s what I kept trying to wrap my head around. Figured it was a typo

 

No type, you just missed the + and -. They went from +12.2 to -12.0 equating to a 24.2% difference, not a 0.2% difference. On defense, positive is bad for DVOA.

10 hours ago, Turk71 said:

They moved 24 percentage points from positive 12 to -12, positive is bad for the defense. I don't know their methods but I have definitely seen improvement and the Bills sacks and takeaways combined since week 7 are behind only the Saints.

 

edit. didn't see matter2003 already pointed it out on previous page

 

Here is an abridged explanation, and if you want a very in depth one, click on the METHODS TO THE MADNESS link below:

 

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

Edited December 3, 2020 by matter2003

[st pete gogolak]

Certainly by the eyeball test the D looked worse this year than last year and it looked better the latter part of this season than the beginning few games.  Then I took a look at the O rankings of the teams we've played so far this year.  Not only have we played a bunch of teams with winning records, we've really run the gauntlet of teams with high-powered offenses.  The current offensive rankings (YPG) of our opponents: #1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 17, 22, 30 and 32 (2).  That's nuts.  We've played a bunch of teams in the top 10 in rushing yards per game (e.g. NE - 17th in total yards but top 10 rushing yards).   Bottom-line: last year's defense was good but had inflated stats given the quality of QB's we faced, this year's defense is better than its stats because we've faced high-end after high-end offense.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

Certainly by the eyeball test the D looked worse this year than last year and it looked better the latter part of this season than the beginning few games.  Then I took a look at the O rankings of the teams we've played so far this year.  Not only have we played a bunch of teams with winning records, we've really run the gauntlet of teams with high-powered offenses.  The current offensive rankings (YPG) of our opponents: #1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 17, 22, 30 and 32 (2).  That's nuts.  We've played a bunch of teams in the top 10 in rushing yards per game (e.g. NE - 17th in total yards but top 10 rushing yards).   Bottom-line: last year's defense was good but had inflated stats given the quality of QB's we faced, this year's defense is better than its stats because we've faced high-end after high-end offense.

 

Especially with the luck we had last year of facing a bunch of 2nd/3rd string QBs...Denver, Pittsburgh, Jets, etc...

 

This year the Steelers/Browns have benefitted quite a bit from that, especially the part of playing against weak teams having faced the AFC South and NFC East as crossover divisions.  

Edited December 3, 2020 by matter2003

[Protocal69]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

No type, you just missed the + and -. They went from +12.2 to -12.0 equating to a 24.2% difference, not a 0.2% difference. On defense, positive is bad for DVOA.

 

Here is an abridged explanation, and if you want a very in depth one, click on the METHODS TO THE MADNESS link below:

 

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

👍 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say his unamortized bonus made it untenable to release him outright. Not true. He'd have cost them $7.8M in dead money. More, they could have spread that over two years. And his original contract called for $6.25M and he was due a roster bonus of $500K. In other words, they would have lost about $1 million overall. That was very very far from untenable when they did the new deal on February 11th. They still had about $80 mill on the cap at that point. So to say that it was untenable to cut him is simply untrue.

 

 

Suggesting that you "get your DT's to do the 1T dirty work in small doses and in return for good work give them one-gap reps," ignores the fact that none of them are good at space-eating. Zimmer appears to be about the best we have and he's not good.

 

 

1)

 

$7.8M cap figure to cut him

$8.2M cap figure to keep him

$600K is the vet min

 

Beane is quite obviously very big on insurance policies.......and he's burned more than a few million cap $ playing that game with the lines....see Spencer Long and the oft-inactive Trent Murphy situations this season.

 

They were going to save a $1.75M off Star's base pay and let it play out.......get his dead money down to a quieter $5M and more than likely dispose of him after this season(hence the injury guarantee that you thought was an "actual" guarantee).

 

Star got the last laugh on their pay cut plan........he got the year off and all he has to do now is show up for activities next spring and summer and collect that base salary.

 

2)  Here's the thing about "space eating"..........that is not really the only job of a 1 tech

 

Too many fans confuse the 1 tech and the nose tackle position.

 

The 1 tech is not aligned over top of the center like a nose tackle........he is in the center/guard gap and that gives him the chance to shoot gaps and get into the backfield.    The Bills generally don't use a NT alignment because they want both DT's to have the ability to make plays in the backfield.   Having a player with the ability to make plays behind the LOS allows your defense to keep the same personnel on the field regardless of the down and distance situation.   

 

The big problems with Star:   he flat out can't make plays behind the LOS + he isn't powerful enough or active enough as a tackler to force teams to double team him(they often have not).  

 

Too often he was just a 1 for 1 exchange of bodies and the extra OL were able to get on the Bills LB's or the RB ran right past Star without him getting a hand on them.   On the same plays Harrison Phillips was getting off those blocks and slowing or tackling backs.   Edmunds was often not getting much protection at all from Star.  

 

I personally thought they should have cut him and was thrilled to see them pursuing DT's who can actually get to the QB or make a TFL.

[BringBackFlutie]

On 12/3/2020 at 12:01 AM, Protocal69 said:

that’s what I kept trying to wrap my head around. Figured it was a typo

 

On 12/3/2020 at 10:53 AM, matter2003 said:

 

No type, you just missed the + and -.

 

What's this called?  Irony?

 

Whatever it is- I'm absolutely tickled 😅

[Royale with Cheese]