Interesting Note...Bills D rounding into form? From weeks 7-12 Bills have posted 7th best Defensive DVOA at -12.0%

[WideNine]

52 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

You mean like he did in the last game of the season with the Jets in Buffalo when all they needed to do was win and he threw like 3 4th quarter INT's, one being in the end zone, to seal the loss? And miss the playoffs.

 

Well, he has another week 17 matchup in Buffalo....but I doubt it will matter to us this time for an entirely different reason.

 

 

Yes, I am well-aware of the Fitztragic moments, but he has been more consistent with the phins and the 2 years prior he had a good run with the Bucs.

 

I just think a rookie QB with a pared down playbook will be easier to defend, and I think their defense has improved. We will see if they try to play man the whole game like they did that first game where Allen picked them apart ... I think they go with that 2-deep zone that has kept Allen under wraps more.

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by WideNine
Had the wrong Fitz Tampa era

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

 

Yes, I am well-aware of the Fitztragic moments, but he has been more consistent with the phins and the year prior he had a good run with the Bucs.

 

I just think a rookie QB with a pared down playbook will be easier to defend, and I think their defense has improved. We will see if they try to play man the whole game like they did that first game where Allen picked them apart ... I think they go with that 2-deep zone that has kept Allen under wraps more.

 

 

 

 

If we play Fitz we win that game. If we play Tua we win that game easily.  

 

Allen has owned the Dolphins for the most part since he arrived.

[hondo in seattle]

I think we all knew the D was getting better.  Still good to see the stats.  Thanks for posting, matter2003.

 

And it sounds like Milano's coming back.

[wvbillsfan]

We knew this was going to happen. We got healthy and we got experience and reps that covid took away from our defense. 
 

I have to imagine it’s hard to know exactly what player combinations are going to work with so many injuries and new players. Especially up front. 
 

Tre and Edmunds looking healthy have played a huge part in this turnaround 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

The last 3 games we played the 5th, 2nd and 3rd ranked offenses in the NFL in the Seahawks, Cardinals and Chargers. The fact our TD percentage allowed went down and not up is pretty astounding actually.  Miami played the Chargers, Broncos and Jets. So they replaced playing the 2nd and 5th ranked offenses with the 27th and 32nd ranked offenses. And the Bills actually allowed fewer points to the Chargers than Miami did. Of course the Dolphins TD percentage should go down drastically because the other 2 teams they played that differ from us suck offensively. 

 

This is why perspective is actually important when looking at statistics or you end up coming up with silliness like you just did.

 

The improved LB play has really stood out and gotten a lot of attention.

 

But they made a decision this offseason to load up on athletic DT's and try to be more of a pressure defense(as mentioned in your OP)........and now that they are familiar with what they are being asked to do they are getting more pressure as a front and doing a better job in run defense as well.   Run D is mostly want-to and technique and with the Bills rotating 9 DL all game they shouldn't be too worried about them getting worn down by the run.

 

I have been teasing the people who mistakenly think they miss Star Lotulelei.........but everything they have done since the end of last season has said they don't value that traffic cone 1T any longer.

 

1) They cut Star's pay

2) They signed pressure guys Jefferson and Butler

3) They cut Vincent Taylor at the end of camp

4) They have games where they de-activate the only true 1T they have in Phillips(who is actually a tackler when healthy)

5) They even rotate the undersized Oliver between the the 1T(and sometimes nose) and 3T.

 

And at the peak of their in-season struggles what did they do?    

 

They added an undersized hustling DT in Justin Zimmer(instead of finding another big body) and played 6 guys in the box against the Chiefs.

 

It's hard to play a 4-2 in today's NFL and have one of the 4 be incapable of making plays behind the LOS.

 

The current top 6 seeded teams in the NFL are the top 6 scoring teams.

 

You aren't very likely to win the SB unless you can outscore the best teams..............and since points come in the passing game that's what you have to be disproportionately focused on stopping.

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, dma0034 said:

They are blitzing more and have their 2nd best corner in. I see these as why it's gotten better

 

They blitzed a ton against the rookie QB last week. Against Murray and Wilson, not so much.

 

Blitzing isn't the change, I don't think. It's just something they look at game to game. Unpredictable fronts, overload rushes, interesting variations on rushes, yes.

 

Looks to me like they've just gotten healthier and figured out better how to work together and blend the newer guys in.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The improved LB play has really stood out and gotten a lot of attention.

 

But they made a decision this offseason to load up on athletic DT's and try to be more of a pressure defense(as mentioned in your OP)........and now that they are familiar with what they are being asked to do they are getting more pressure as a front and doing a better job in run defense as well.   Run D is mostly want-to and technique and with the Bills rotating 9 DL all game they shouldn't be too worried about them getting worn down by the run.

 

I have been teasing the people who mistakenly think they miss Star Lotulelei.........but everything they have done since the end of last season has said they don't value that traffic cone 1T any longer.

 

1) They cut Star's pay

2) They signed pressure guys Jefferson and Butler

3) They cut Vincent Taylor at the end of camp

4) They have games where they de-activate the only true 1T they have in Phillips(who is actually a tackler when healthy)

5) They even rotate the undersized Oliver between the the 1T(and sometimes nose) and 3T.

 

And at the peak of their in-season struggles what did they do?    

 

They added an undersized hustling DT in Justin Zimmer(instead of finding another big body) and played 6 guys in the box against the Chiefs.

 

It's hard to play a 4-2 in today's NFL and have one of the 4 be incapable of making plays behind the LOS.

 

The current top 6 seeded teams in the NFL are the top 6 scoring teams.

 

You aren't very likely to win the SB unless you can outscore the best teams..............and since points come in the passing game that's what you have to be disproportionately focused on stopping.

 

 

 

It's funny how when people talk about their "cutting Star's pay," they never talk about the fact that they also guaranteed his salary for a season and a half. They also never talk about how much the cut in pay amounted to ... which is that in a $50 million five-year contract they cut his pay by $1,750,000, total.

 

In combination with guaranteeing an extra year and a half, that is pretty much the opposite of saying they don't need Star. They committed to him.

 

Yeah, they cut Vincent Taylor. Likely because he wasn't good enough.

 

And yeah they added Zimmer, who's undersized. There weren't any good huge 1-techs available at that point, and especially not when we were already running on vapor in terms of the cap.

 

Yeah, they played 6 guys in the box at KC. And you somehow think that didn't have everything to do with prioritizing stopping KC's pass game? Really? That shows a profound misunderstanding, honestly. KC saw what we were doing and said, "Fine, fine. Thanks, we'll just hammer the ball through the light middle of your DL. Thanks, guys." Not having Star in that game made it easy for them to run, and they took full and complete advantage.

 

And yeah, they prioritize pass defense. That's not something new. It's precisely what McDermott's defense has always done. Having a Lotulelei in the middle greatly helps balance that out so teams can't just do what New England and KC did in response. He's the weight in the middle that allows them to have the rest be lighter and prioritize pass defense.

 

When they get an excellent 1-tech space-eater back next year in Star, one who they've already committed to in the long-term, they'll be very happy indeed.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The improved LB play has really stood out and gotten a lot of attention.

 

But they made a decision this offseason to load up on athletic DT's and try to be more of a pressure defense(as mentioned in your OP)........and now that they are familiar with what they are being asked to do they are getting more pressure as a front and doing a better job in run defense as well.   Run D is mostly want-to and technique and with the Bills rotating 9 DL all game they shouldn't be too worried about them getting worn down by the run.

 

I have been teasing the people who mistakenly think they miss Star Lotulelei.........but everything they have done since the end of last season has said they don't value that traffic cone 1T any longer.

 

1) They cut Star's pay

2) They signed pressure guys Jefferson and Butler

3) They cut Vincent Taylor at the end of camp

4) They have games where they de-activate the only true 1T they have in Phillips(who is actually a tackler when healthy)

5) They even rotate the undersized Oliver between the the 1T(and sometimes nose) and 3T.

 

And at the peak of their in-season struggles what did they do?    

 

They added an undersized hustling DT in Justin Zimmer(instead of finding another big body) and played 6 guys in the box against the Chiefs.

 

It's hard to play a 4-2 in today's NFL and have one of the 4 be incapable of making plays behind the LOS.

 

The current top 6 seeded teams in the NFL are the top 6 scoring teams.

 

You aren't very likely to win the SB unless you can outscore the best teams..............and since points come in the passing game that's what you have to be disproportionately focused on stopping.

 

Bado -

 

This is excellent.  What you're saying is that the Bills consciously traded bulk in the middle for quickness and speed.  Of course, they assumed they'd have Star in the middle, but it's noteworthy that once Star opted out they didn't show any great desire to bulk up in the middle.  I'd guess that the run defense philosophy is based on having two really quick linebackers in Milano and Edmunds and two excellent run-stopping safeties.  Now they've figured out how to make Klein effective, too.   

 

Very interesting analysis.  Thanks. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's funny how when people talk about their "cutting Star's pay," they never talk about the fact that they also guaranteed his salary for a season and a half. They also never talk about how much the cut in pay amounted to ... which is that in a $50 million five-year contract they cut his pay by $1,750,000, total.

 

In combination with an extra year and a half guaranteed, that is pretty much the opposite of saying they don't need Star. They committed to him.

 

Yeah, they cut Vincent Taylor. Likely because he wasn't good enough.

 

And yeah they added Zimmer, who's undersized. There weren't any good huge 1-techs available at that point, and especially not when we were already running on vapor in terms of the cap.

 

Yeah, they played 6 guys in the box at KC. And you somehow think that didn't have everything to do with prioritizing stopping KC's run game? Really? That shows a profound misunderstanding, honestly.

 

When they get an excellent 1-tech back next year in Star, one who they've already committed to in the long-term, they'll be very happy indeed.

But Thurm, they play eight deep on the D line, and they did nothing to get a second 1-tech guy.  One might say they were counting on Philips in that role, but that's very un-Beanelike.  They want competition, but they had no one to compete for the 1-tech.  That suggests to me that they're taking a different approach, different from the traditional 1-tech, 3-tech approach. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Bado -

 

This is excellent.  What you're saying is that the Bills consciously traded bulk in the middle for quickness and speed.  Of course, they assumed they'd have Star in the middle, but it's noteworthy that once Star opted out they didn't show any great desire to bulk up in the middle.  I'd guess that the run defense philosophy is based on having two really quick linebackers in Milano and Edmunds and two excellent run-stopping safeties.  Now they've figured out how to make Klein effective, too.   

 

Very interesting analysis.  Thanks. 

 

 

But Thurm, they play eight deep on the D line, and they did nothing to get a second 1-tech guy.  One might say they were counting on Philips in that role, but that's very un-Beanelike.  They want competition, but they had no one to compete for the 1-tech.  That suggests to me that they're taking a different approach, different from the traditional 1-tech, 3-tech approach. 

 

 

Yeah, you're right they didn't do anything to get a second big 1-tech. There seems to be an extremely obvious reason for that ... Star opted out on July 28th. There are very few guys who can do what Lotulelei does, and they were all gone. They don't just need a big guy, they need a big guy who's a space-eater and a good one.

 

Nobody was out there, and particularly not as they had already spent most of their cap this year. And cap is even more important this year with next year being a year where the cap ceiling will drop so much.

 

Yeah, they're taking a different approach, as that's their only realistic choice this year. They've always played eight deep, that's nothing new, that's McD's modus operandi, and yet he still brought in Star and then guaranteed his salary for another year and a half well before he opted out.

 

Star (or someone fulfilling the same function) is precisely the guy who lets McDermott set up most of the rest of the defense to attack the opponent's passing offenses.

 

And as for not having a backup Lotulelei, it's not un-Beanelike. It's what they did in Carolina as well. They have another guy to rotate in, but he's not someone they spend much money or draft capital on.  It's the way they operate. For most of his time in Carolina his backups were guys like Micanor Regis and Colin Cole.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Thurman#1

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, dma0034 said:

They are blitzing more and have their 2nd best corner in. I see these as why it's gotten better

Edmunds play in the last 4-5 weeks has been terrific and so has been the effort of Klein.....   This cannot be ignored in their raise in the rankings.

 

What is still holding this team down is the front line's ability to put pressure on 3rd and longs...We are giving up way too many because we are allowing these QBs to set and throw.

[BADOLBILZ]

59 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

It's funny how when people talk about their "cutting Star's pay," they never talk about the fact that they also guaranteed his salary for a season and a half. They also never talk about how much the cut in pay amounted to ... which is that in a $50 million five-year contract they cut his pay by $1,750,000, total.

 

Regarding Star:

 

The Lotulelei "2021 half season" guarantee.......which now applies to 2022......is only guaranteed for injury.  

 

He simply got a $1.75M pay cut in 2020 in exchange for guaranteeing his 2020 salary.........which was about the best they could hope to get back.......because his unamortized bonus money made it untenable to just release him outright.  

 

The $2.5M injury guarantee was Star's agent getting Star a parachute in the event that he were injured in 2020.

 

As John Feliciano pointed out........Star opted out because his pay was guaranteed..........an unfortunate tactical error by Beane who didn't realize at the time that players would be allowed to opt out and get their 2020 salary pushed to 2021.

 

Going Forward:

 

Expect them to try to keep doing what they have done this season...........it's not a compromise..........it's a choice.  

 

With defenses employing nickel or dime defenses over 2/3 of the time you are obviously seeing teams go with just 2 LB's that can play 3 downs..........there is an inherent sacrifice in run defense that choice.

 

So in an era where there isn't really such a thing as a "running" down anymore........it makes sense for a 40 front to not have to switch out a run-defense-specialist-1T mid-series.

 

Get your DT's to do the 1T dirty work in small doses and in return for good work give them one-gap reps.

 

And then if and when the opponent goes to the pass on early downs you aren't left with a bad matchup on plays where the most damage can be done............or you don't get yourself caught running guys off the field and unprepared at the snap in a defensive switch when these high powered offenses go up tempo.

 

Nobody is pitching shutouts on defense anymore...........there are more first downs played than ever.........steady pass rush and coverage are what you hope for........and not having to substitute your front on a down to down basis is a lot more valuable now.   Especially to a team defense like the Bills.

 

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Regarding Star:

 

The Lotulelei "2021 half season" guarantee.......which now applies to 2022......is only guaranteed for injury.  

 

He simply got a $1.75M pay cut in 2020 in exchange for guaranteeing his 2020 salary.........which was about the best they could hope to get back.......because his unamortized bonus money made it untenable to just release him outright.  

 

The $2.5M injury guarantee was Star's agent getting Star a parachute in the event that he were injured in 2020.

 

As John Feliciano pointed out........Star opted out because his pay was guaranteed..........an unfortunate tactical error by Beane who didn't realize at the time that players would be allowed to opt out and get their 2020 salary pushed to 2021.

 

Going Forward:

 

Expect them to try to keep doing what they have done this season...........it's not a compromise..........it's a choice.  

 

With defenses employing nickel or dime defenses over 2/3 of the time you are obviously seeing teams go with just 2 LB's that can play 3 downs..........there is an inherent sacrifice in run defense that choice.

 

So in an era where there isn't really such a thing as a "running" down anymore........it makes sense for a 40 front to not have to switch out a run-defense-specialist-1T mid-series.

 

Get your DT's to do the 1T dirty work in small doses and in return for good work give them one-gap reps.

 

And then if and when the opponent goes to the pass on early downs you aren't left with a bad matchup on plays where the most damage can be done............or you don't get yourself caught running guys off the field and unprepared at the snap in a defensive switch when these high powered offenses go up tempo.

 

Nobody is pitching shutouts on defense anymore...........there are more first downs played than ever.........steady pass rush and coverage are what you hope for........and not having to substitute your front on a down to down basis is a lot more valuable now.   Especially to a team defense like the Bills.

 

 

It's true...first downs are more frequent than ever....the Bills just broke the franchise record for consecutive games with 20+ first downs with 11 and counting.

[Coach Tuesday]

Apparently they went hard for DJ Reader and thought they had him in the bag - probably never even crossed their minds that they’d lose him to Cincy (!) - so I’m not sure what we’re seeing isn’t Plan B...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 hours ago, matter2003 said:

What I was expecting even when they were not playing well early in the year...this D is too well coached and too talented to play that poorly all year.  Had some new pieces they had to figure out how to best fit in there, and they have done a pretty good job as of late, especially with becoming a pressure defense.

 

As reported by Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders:

 

 

for us novices here; did they get better, did a lot of others get worse.  I’m not familiar with any metrics where a 0.2% Improvement moves you past 23 other teams.. 

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

It's true...first downs are more frequent than ever....the Bills just broke the franchise record for consecutive games with 20+ first downs with 11 and counting.

 

3 first downs and out has almost replaced 3 and out as a good series.

 

Where does a 1-down guy with very limited mobility fit in a game like that?

 

The answer probably is a defense that is OK with being bottom half of the league......like Seattle at this point.....I don't see McD being ok with that anytime soon.......maybe when he is 70 like Pete Carroll.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

for us novices here; did they get better, did a lot of others get worse.  I’m not familiar with any metrics where a 0.2% Improvement moves you past 23 other teams.. 

 

It isn't a 0.2% improvement, it is a 24.2% improvement.

 

They went from +12.2% to -12.0%. On defense, positive numbers are bad.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Apparently they went hard for DJ Reader and thought they had him in the bag - probably never even crossed their minds that they’d lose him to Cincy (!) - so I’m not sure what we’re seeing isn’t Plan B...

 

 

That's true about them pursuing Reader but he isn't just a space eater........he can play the 1T like Lotulelei did as a rookie......he can force the double or he can split the double.

 

He tackles RB's and can get to your QB.    He was the whole package in 2019.

 

Harrison Phillips was turning into that "active" 1T before the knee injury.    Hopefully he gets back to that.    He was an absolute tackling machine in college. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

32 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

It isn't a 0.2% improvement, it is a 24.2% improvement.

 

They went from +12.2% to -12.0%. On defense, positive numbers are bad.

I missed the ‘-‘. Thx

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

If we play Fitz we win that game. If we play Tua we win that game easily.  

 

Allen has owned the Dolphins for the most part since he arrived.

A clay catch away from 5-0!

[Big Turk]

56 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Apparently they went hard for DJ Reader and thought they had him in the bag - probably never even crossed their minds that they’d lose him to Cincy (!) - so I’m not sure what we’re seeing isn’t Plan B...

 

Maybe they went hard like Mayhem Maybin talked about in his song "I go hard, they go harder"