Black Monday is coming (UPDATE: is here!).....

[GunnerBill]

About this time of year I like to look at where we stand on the coaching carousel. It has spun a few times already this season with three teams clearing house before week 13..... and the Jaguars taking the first step to what appears to be a total house cleaning there too. It will be a few years since we have had four teams that are starting over at both HC and GM spots with hard resets. So here is a reminder on where we are and a look at where we might be.....

 

Already out:

Houston Texans - Fired HC/GM Bill O'Brien - Ownership on record as wanting to hire a GM first and then begin a coaching search

Detroit Lions - Fired HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn

Atlanta Falcons Fire HC Dann Quin and GM Thomas Dimitroff

Jacksonville Jaguars - Fired GM Dave Caldwell

 

On the brink:

Jacksonville Jaguars - HC Doug Marrone

New York Jets - HC Adam Gase

 

In trouble:

Dallas Cowboys - HC Mike McCarthy

Philadelphia Eagles - HC Doug Pederson

Chicago Bears - HC Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace

Los Angeles Chargers - HC Anthony Lynn

 

The don't be shocked if:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - HC Bruce Arians

Minnesota Vikings - HC Mike Zimmer

 

 

I think the five Head Coaching jobs we know are going to be open will likely be joined by at least one maybe two from the in trouble list. I think Doug Pederson is in real trouble because of the regression in Carson Wentz and his inability to fix him. The Eagles next three games are Green Bay, New Orleans and Arizona, before they finish against Dallas and Washington. A 3 or 4 win season might be enough to see him fired and based on what he said yesterday Mr Lurie is already pretty ticked off. Nagy is another from the Andy Reid tree who was hand picked to develop a QB and after an initial bump has seen a regression. Now we all know that is because Trubisky just isn't very good.... but it has looked worse at times with Foles in there. If the Bears are going back to the QB well this draft is Nagy the guy they trust to develop another rookie? GM Ryan Pace is in even more trouble. He has now hired two Head Coaches that have failed and his draft picks do not make good reading for the most part. A FIFTH total house clean of the year is possible in Chi town. I suspect Mike McCarthy survives (they will make the lost his QB excuse) and Anthony Lynn might because of Herbert's development..... but I think he might not survive his awful gameday coaching.

 

Zimmer or Arians would have to see their seasons collapse from this point which feels unlikely, though not impossible. The added sauce with Arians is the relationship with Brady. We know Tom will not be shy in politicking behind the scenes with GM Jason Licht (formerly of, you guessed it, New England) and ownership if he decides he wants to play in 2021 and wants to play for a different coach.

 

So finally..... who are the hot candidates? I'm going to leave the college guys as I've seen lots of names banded about - Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day etc but I think this would be a strange year for a coach to leave college for the NFL with all the uncertainties around what the next offseason programme will look like and where the virus will be. There are also no obvious out of work former Head Coaches who could be considered hot candidates and so that really leaves teams looking to recruit from the existing ranks of NFL Assistant Coaches. Some of the names to watch:

 

Guys who would be first time Head Coaches:

Eric Bieniemy - Offensive Coordinator - Kansas City Chiefs - The case for Bieniemy is clear - he is the offensive coordinator of the league's most potent offense in a league in which scoring heavily is becoming ever more vital. The case against him might be that you are going to have to wait in all likelihood until after the Superbowl to hire him (putting you behind on assistant coach hires, and offseason planning) and that the heat may have gone out of the Reid offensive tree given that the previous two occupants of that post - Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy are both on the hotseat.

 

Brian Schottenheimer - Offensive Coordinator - Seattle Seahwaks - It is 10 years since Marty's boy received Head Coaching interviews and at one point, after an unsuccessful run as the OC in St Louis, Schotty was even out of the NFL and working in college. He has rebuilt his resume nicely since then and on the back of letting Russ cook could get looks. The question for teams to work out is how much credit does he deserve?

 

Arthur Smith - Offensive Coordinator - Tennessee Titans - Offensive coaches who run a Shanahan variant of the West Coast Offense off of the stretch zone run game have been in demand in recent years. Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Matt LeFleur all landed plumb jobs. Smith's offense is probably more vanilla than theirs and would be more recognisable to Shanahan Snr but the consistency he has been able to elicit from Ryan Tannehill is going to attract looks. Given he is a Tennessee lifer the questions might be about his contacts and ability to build a strong staff in support of him as a first time HC.

 

Brian Daboll - Offensive coordinator - Buffalo Bills - Brian Daboll, like Brian Schottenheimer, is on his second chance as an NFL OC having had OC jobs earlier in his career that didn't pan out and then reverted to being a position coach and college coordinator to rebuild his reputation. His work with Josh Allen is widely respected around the NFL but teams will want to understand if that is simply a perfect storm or whether he really has developed as a coach. Contacts are not a problem here mind you, and his ability to construct a strong staff is likely to appeal. I've already been told that Matt Patricia is a potential defensive coordinator on a Daboll ticket.

 

Matt Eberflus - Defensive Coordinator - Indianapolis Colts - Eberflus is credited with the remarkable turnaround in the Colts defense over the past couple of years. Originally hired for Josh McDaniels he has formed a strong bond with Frank Reich and has a reputation for being a demanding and process driven coach. He is definitely the lowest profile name on this list though and selling him to a fanbase might be tricky unless the Colts have a statement win in the post-season. He spent time in Dallas where he is apparently admired by the Jones family and if Mike McCoy does end up 1 and done he is a name to keep an eye on for the Cowboys.

 

Robert Saleh - Defensive Coordinator - San Francisco 49ers - Saleh was the hot name in a headset last year but he ended up without a seat at the table when the music stopped. However, to maintain a top 10 defense through the slew of injuries that the 9ers have suffered this season is no mean feat and he is sure to make interview shortlists again. In his favour from last time around is he is unlikely to be a guy you have to wait until after the Superbowl to hire this time but he also was apparently a "clunky" interview in his first go around the carousel in early 2020.... he will want to sharpen up his presentation to secure a gig for 2021.

 

Retreads:

Raheem Morris - Interim Head Coach - Atlanta Falcons - Raheem Morris went 17-31 in three full seasons as the Head Coach of Tampa Bay at the start of the decade. But that included a 10-6 season in his second year where he appeared to have a young team on the rise. That it took him 9 years to even get back to landing a coordinator position has always been a bit of a mystery to me but he is 4-2 as the Falcons interim coach and has impressed people in pulling the locker room back together. Did his first shot just come too early in his career or his a better lieutenant than a general?

 

Dennis Allen - Defensive Coordinator - New Orleans Saints - If you think Morris's Head Coaching record is not impressive for a guy being talked about as possibly due another shot then you might want to look away now. Allen went 8-28 in 2 and a bit dysfunctional seasons with Oakland but he has rebuilt his reputation since becoming the defensive coordinator with the Saints. 5 years ago he inherited the worst defense in football from Rob Ryan. Today it stands as the best defense in football by yards and 5th best by points. And it is flying at the moment. In order for Allen to get looks he is going to need a strong offensive coordinator name on his ticket but if he does there might be a team out there with a mess of a defense who thinks he is worth a shot.

 

Todd Bowles - Defensive Coordinator - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another defensive guy who was a below .500 Head Coach the first time around. Bowles strikes me as a guy who is in the perfect spot as a defensive coordinator. However, he has done a good job as the DC in Tampa and with them garnering national attention for obvious reasons and Bowles' flashy, aggressive, blitzing style it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he gets another shot.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by GunnerBill

[thenorthremembers]

If I am Houston I hire GM Ed Doods from Indi and match him up with Robert Saleh as soon as the Colts and 49ers are out of the hunt.   They have worked together before, and Saleh is going to be a very good head coach.  

[golfball323]

Great stuff. Thanks.

 

If we lose Daboll, do we think that there is an arrangement to keep his system in place with an in house promotion? Or do we go elsewhere?

[Don Otreply]

Just for fun, I for one would love to see Belichick hired by Tampa Bay, and look Brady right in the eyes and say with a smile, “ I’m back” 

the melt down Tawmy would have would be absolutely fantastic, who else is with me on this ... 😂

Edited December 2, 2020 by Don Otreply

[Royale with Cheese]

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

[SoCal Deek]

Nice write up for sure. A lot of this comes down to how well these candidates interview. While I’ve seen and heard Daboll’s name quite often, for me he just doesn’t give off that leadership quality that most organizations are looking for. Anyone?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I'd include the bengals on the "in trouble" list.  Seems like they have a lot of the same problems as other organizations and its probably time to start fresh.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dneveu said:

I'd include the bengals on the "in trouble" list.  Seems like they have a lot of the same problems as other organizations and its probably time to start fresh.  

 

It is a fair point. I just think it looked good with Burrow. I think in Cincy more likely they fire the DC, draft some defense and give Taylor one more year with Burrow.

[John from Riverside]

Nice work

[warrior9]

I think Mike McCarthy is and has been one of the worst head coaches in the NFL over 13-15 years but him being in trouble just isn't fair, really. I'd say there is next to 0% chance he isn't back next year.

 

Injuries to Dak, along the offensive line, and defense just can't be overcame. His in game coaching is still abysmal, though.

 

The fact that Anthony Lynn still has a job surprises me.

 

Mike Zimmer won't be let go. I just can't see that happening. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a fair point. I just think it looked good with Burrow. I think in Cincy more likely they fire the DC, draft some defense and give Taylor one more year with Burrow.

 

I read this article (https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/zac-taylor-bengals-culture-problem), and all i could think was - you need a real true leader that people respect in there.  And they don't have it.  

[HOUSE]

If the Bills lose to the 49ers, I will personally add McDermott to the list.

 

YOU GOT TO GO...BYE....SEE YA!

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by HOUSE

[H2o]

With all of these openings, if Saleh and Bienemy aren't HC's next year at this time then something is wrong. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

I think Mike McCarthy is and has been one of the worst head coaches in the NFL over 13-15 years but him being in trouble just isn't fair, really. I'd say there is next to 0% chance he isn't back next year.

 

Injuries to Dak, along the offensive line, and defense just can't be overcame. His in game coaching is still abysmal, though.

 

The fact that Anthony Lynn still has a job surprises me.

 

Mike Zimmer won't be let go. I just can't see that happening. 

 

Depends on the length of contract with McCarthy, but I tend to agree.  It's stupid though, you know he's bad - just cut bait.  

[thenorthremembers]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

To be fair, I think Daboll has lost a couple lbs.

[PirateHookerMD]

12 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If I am Houston I hire GM Ed Doods from Indi and match him up with Robert Saleh as soon as the Colts and 49ers are out of the hunt.   They have worked together before, and Saleh is going to be a very good head coach.  

 

Id guess Detroit will be hot on Saleh. His college career was at Michigan State. 

[warrior9]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Depends on the length of contract with McCarthy, but I tend to agree.  It's stupid though, you know he's bad - just cut bait.  

He's been bad his entire career man.

 

They wasted a lot of time with Rodgers. I would watch some of his clock management, play calling, personnel, etc and it's just like WOW this guy is realllly bad. Not Anthony Lynn clock management bad though.

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

To be fair, I think Daboll has lost a couple lbs.

 

He looks like a Service Manager at Midas in Sheboygan, WI.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I read this article (https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/zac-taylor-bengals-culture-problem), and all i could think was - you need a real true leader that people respect in there.  And they don't have it.  

 

Yea I wouldn't be shocked if Taylor was canned. I just think generally 2 systems in his first 2 years is not a great start to a QB's career. It might save Taylor and Lynn.

[thenorthremembers]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He looks like a Service Manager at Midas in Sheboygan, WI.

 

 

Thats last year during the ill advised Mustache incident.   Personally think he looks smaller this year.  Although as a larger man myself, I do know that a beard helps a lot in shaping ones face.