Bills best in league on 4th down “go for it” situations

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Mojo44]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means

 

 

I think there’s an oxymoron in there somewhere.

[BuffaloBillies]

Yay! We punted!

 

Or is this FGs? Still...

Edited December 2, 2020 by BuffaloBillies

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means

 

 

The opposite. When they should go for it, they do. Saints cost themselves most in the NFL by kicking it when they shouldn't.

[TigerJ]

Cool.  Presumably the Bills are making good use of analytics.  One of the things Josh Allen usually does well is the QB sneak.

[GoBills808]

I think you have this backwards

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The opposite. When they should go for it, they do. Saints cost themselves most in the NFL by kicking it when they shouldn't.

 

 

Yeah, this.

 

Not surprising, really. Look at how many 4th and ones we've seen an Allen sneak be successful.

 

Look at the top of the chart, "Expected win probability lost by kicking in go situations."

Edited December 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[ProcessTruster]

Interesting (i guess) 

[finn]

Are we sure "kicking" means punting? Maybe it means kicking the field goal instead. At least this season, I don't recall lamenting a punt at the 35-yard line or whatever, but Bass has attempted some very long field goals--and made most of them. 

[SoCal Deek]

What an obscure statistic! Come on Man. The WINLESS Jets are #4 in the league. This statistic appears to have next to nothing to do with a team’s ultimate success. 

[Bray Wyatt]

John Harbaugh, Sean McD, and Ron Rivera at the tops, all who were a part of Andy Reid's tree iirc, and then theres Andy at 6 himself.

[Jumpsuit Jim]

So being at the extreme end of a graph is either a good thing or a bad thing which has either a major impact or a minor impact on the outcome of a game. 
 

Got it. 

[Logic]

I think a few who have responded are misunderstanding this graph.

 

Basically, it means the Bills’ 4th down decision making — when to kick, when to go for it — is excellent.

 

This absolutely IS an important statistic. It  speaks to the evolution and adaptability of coach McDermott, who has often been criticized for game day decision making.
 

This graph — like the Bills becoming one of the pass happiest teams in the league — shows that McDermott has improved in multiple areas, embraces analytics, and is one of the sharpest, most “modern” coaches in the NFL.

 

*edit: to that end, the thread title is maybe slightly misleading?

Edited December 2, 2020 by Logic

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 minutes ago, Jumpsuit Jim said:

So being at the extreme end of a graph is either a good thing or a bad thing which has either a major impact or a minor impact on the outcome of a game. 
 

Got it. 

Graph-shaming dude, really, in 2020?   
 

I think it’s pretty obvious what the graph reveals about....football...and teams that play football..professionally...vis a vis fourth down situational analytics.  
 

In summary, algorithms.  Don’t bother asking me to explain further, I’m pretty upset right now. 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means

 

 

 

No what it says is the Bills are best at making decisions to go for it when they should and kick when they should based on his statistical models. This is a good thing.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

No what it says is the Bills are best at making decisions to go for it when they should and kick when they should based on his statistical models. This is a good thing.

So I’m guessing that the Jets are so bad that the right decision is simply to punt on pretty much EVERY fourth down. 

[YoloinOhio]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you have this backwards

In what way 

36 minutes ago, Logic said:

I think a few who have responded are misunderstanding this graph.

 

Basically, it means the Bills’ 4th down decision making — when to kick, when to go for it — is excellent.

 

This absolutely IS an important statistic. It  speaks to the evolution and adaptability of coach McDermott, who has often been criticized for game day decision making.
 

This graph — like the Bills becoming one of the pass happiest teams in the league — shows that McDermott has improved in multiple areas, embraces analytics, and is one of the sharpest, most “modern” coaches in the NFL.

 

*edit: to that end, the thread title is maybe slightly misleading?

Yes I’m sure it’s misleading Because the stat is confusing 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

In what way 

 

The graph illustrates that the Bills aren’t costing themselves by kicking when they should be going for it on 4th down instead.
 

It does NOT illustrate that they are kicking when they should be going for it, which is what the thread title indicates.

 

Basically, the graph measures how good the 4th down decision making for each team is. The Bills are great at it. That’s it.
 

*edit: it’s admittedly a strangely worded and somewhat confusing Tweet.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Logic

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

 

The graph illustrates that the Bills aren’t costing themselves by kicking when they should be going for it on 4th down instead.
 

It does NOT illustrate that they are kicking when they should be going for it, which is what the threat title indicates.

 

Basically, the graph measures how good the 4th down decision making for each team is. The Bills are great at it. That’s it.

I just went by what the tweet said 

[HOUSE]

Great stat, The Bills should be favored by 14 this week