Kubiak (TBN) take on Bills-Chargers

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-bills-qb-josh-allen-got-stefon-diggs-involved-and-about-that-late/article_45294b3e-3374-11eb-aa7f-0360be618bb7.html

 

I really like Kubiak.  Occasionally I am a little frustrated by his format, and this is one of those occasions.  Kubiak's format is to look at the plays that actually took place, grade and critique them.    Part of what I've been trying to figure out is whether our passing opportunities were limited by play call or by chosen options.  I will have to look elsewhere for that.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-bills-qb-josh-allen-got-stefon-diggs-involved-and-about-that-late/article_45294b3e-3374-11eb-aa7f-0360be618bb7.html

 

He thinks McDermott played a key role in the win:

"The Bills’ turnover ratio was minus-2, having committed three turnovers to the Chargers’ one. To win a game while committing three turnovers is a rare occurrence in the NFL, where teams who win the turnover battle ultimately win the game 78% of the time dating back to 1950. There is certainly an argument to be made that the Chargers’ poor clock management and lack of situational awareness lost the game. It was, however, steady leadership from McDermott that saved the win in a game that could have slipped away. 

 

I would contend that McDermott’s steadfast belief and his even keel during the Bills’ desperate times in the fourth quarter were the difference. His positive leadership reminded me of a quote by John Paul Jones, the father of the U.S. Navy: “If fear is cultivated it will become stronger, if faith is cultivated it will achieve mastery.”

 

His take on a couple of other key points that have been discussed elsewhere:

-The fumbled snap: "After much review of this play, it is apparent that Morse’s snap was deeper and wider than usual. The ball squirted to the right of Allen’s hands and onto the ground."  However, he feels Allen had both a duty and a window to fall on the ball:  In any event, it was Allen’s responsibility to fall on the ball immediately. Instead, Allen tried to make up for the mistake and make a play that just wasn’t there to be made. The correct play for Allen was to fall on the ball and retain possession. I am uncertain as to whether Allen really had a window to fall on the ball immediately or whether trying would have collided heads with a Chargers defender  - but, he could have swept the ball backwards towards himself and Moss, then the two of them fall on it, instead of picking it up and moving it forward into a convenient position for more Chargers to scrum for.

-The interception: "With a seven-point lead and 6:21 remaining, Allen needed to be careful with the football. On this play, Allen was surprised by the safety blitz as the pass rush forced him backwards. This drifting posture made it impossible for Allen to step into the corner route to Diggs. The Chargers’ cornerback, Davis, had cut under Diggs and had an easy interception on the poorly thrown ball. Allen should have been thinking in more protective terms and should have tried to get the ball out of his hands sooner to a check down receiver underneath.  Instead, he was locked onto Diggs, attempting a knockout-punch, deep-corner completion. This was a mental lapse by Allen, who was playing reckless rather than playing the odds. The interception and turnover again gave the Chargers another opportunity to tie the game, or potentially win with a two-point conversion."  Kubiak is a former QB and I am not, but I'm unclear on a couple of points in this interpretation.  First, and obviously, he is correct about the potential bad outcomes of the play where the Chargers could have tied or won.  The unclear points to me are:  1) Allen's reads and instructions on the play.  The Bills were in a max protect format with Knox and Moss in the backfield to block.  I think it's possible, even likely, that the primary read on the play call was Diggs and the play was intended by Daboll for Allen to go for it.  2) "surprised" by the safety blitz to me sounds like saying there was a blitzer who was Allen's responsibility to account for.  Clearly not so.  His RT, Williams, was free to pick up the blitzer with Moss  initially in position to take someone on if there was a defensive shift after the snap.  Allen expected protection, and didn't get it. 3) "This drifting posture made it impossible for Allen to step into the corner route to Diggs. "  One must defer to a QB guru here, but we've seen Allen make better throws from worse situations.....Probably the safest throw would have been to Moss, who was 2-3 yds short of the LOS but had enough space that he could probably have made it a reasonable 3rd down.

 

The thing that strikes me looking at this is the following (aside from that Allen probably had a clear throw to Beasley at this instant): the LOS is at the 38 yd line.  Dawkins is about 3 yds behind it, still blocking.  The rest of the OL, those who are still engaged, have been shoved back a good 8 yds.  I don't think that's good.

[Don Otreply]

The Bolded is on point, one of my favorite lines From the movie “Dune” (the original movie that is), I quote from time to time is, “ Fear is the mind killer” it holds true in real Life as well. 
 

Go Bills!!!

Edited December 2, 2020 by Don Otreply

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

The Bolded is on point, one of my favorite lines From the movie “Dune” (the original movie that is), I quote from time to time is, “ Fear is the mind killer” it holds true in real Life as well. 
 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

It's a quote from the book, Don.   Adapted to screen.   Justin Herberts gramps I think. 

 

 

[JohnNord]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-bills-qb-josh-allen-got-stefon-diggs-involved-and-about-that-late/article_45294b3e-3374-11eb-aa7f-0360be618bb7.html

 

I really like Kubiak.  Occasionally I am a little frustrated by his format, and this is one of those occasions.  Kubiak's format is to look at the plays that actually took place, grade and critique them.    Part of what I've been trying to figure out is whether our passing opportunities were limited by play call or by chosen options.  I will have to look elsewhere for that.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-bills-qb-josh-allen-got-stefon-diggs-involved-and-about-that-late/article_45294b3e-3374-11eb-aa7f-0360be618bb7.html

 

He thinks McDermott played a key role in the win:

"The Bills’ turnover ratio was minus-2, having committed three turnovers to the Chargers’ one. To win a game while committing three turnovers is a rare occurrence in the NFL, where teams who win the turnover battle ultimately win the game 78% of the time dating back to 1950. There is certainly an argument to be made that the Chargers’ poor clock management and lack of situational awareness lost the game. It was, however, steady leadership from McDermott that saved the win in a game that could have slipped away. 

 

I would contend that McDermott’s steadfast belief and his even keel during the Bills’ desperate times in the fourth quarter were the difference. His positive leadership reminded me of a quote by John Paul Jones, the father of the U.S. Navy: “If fear is cultivated it will become stronger, if faith is cultivated it will achieve mastery.”

 

His take on a couple of other key points that have been discussed elsewhere:

-The fumbled snap: "After much review of this play, it is apparent that Morse’s snap was deeper and wider than usual. The ball squirted to the right of Allen’s hands and onto the ground."  However, he feels Allen had both a duty and a window to fall on the ball:  In any event, it was Allen’s responsibility to fall on the ball immediately. Instead, Allen tried to make up for the mistake and make a play that just wasn’t there to be made. The correct play for Allen was to fall on the ball and retain possession. I am uncertain as to whether Allen really had a window to fall on the ball immediately or whether trying would have collided heads with a Chargers defender  - but, he could have swept the ball backwards towards himself and Moss, then the two of them fall on it, instead of picking it up and moving it forward into a convenient position for more Chargers to scrum for.

-The interception: "With a seven-point lead and 6:21 remaining, Allen needed to be careful with the football. On this play, Allen was surprised by the safety blitz as the pass rush forced him backwards. This drifting posture made it impossible for Allen to step into the corner route to Diggs. The Chargers’ cornerback, Davis, had cut under Diggs and had an easy interception on the poorly thrown ball. Allen should have been thinking in more protective terms and should have tried to get the ball out of his hands sooner to a check down receiver underneath.  Instead, he was locked onto Diggs, attempting a knockout-punch, deep-corner completion. This was a mental lapse by Allen, who was playing reckless rather than playing the odds. The interception and turnover again gave the Chargers another opportunity to tie the game, or potentially win with a two-point conversion."  Kubiak is a former QB and I am not, but I'm unclear on a couple of points in this interpretation.  First, and obviously, he is correct about the potential bad outcomes of the play where the Chargers could have tied or won.  The unclear points to me are:  1) Allen's reads and instructions on the play.  The Bills were in a max protect format with Knox and Moss in the backfield to block.  I think it's possible, even likely, that the primary read on the play call was Diggs and the play was intended by Daboll for Allen to go for it.  2) "surprised" by the safety blitz to me sounds like saying there was a blitzer who was Allen's responsibility to account for.  Clearly not so.  His RT, Williams, was free to pick up the blitzer with Moss  initially in position to take someone on if there was a defensive shift after the snap.  Allen expected protection, and didn't get it. 3) "This drifting posture made it impossible for Allen to step into the corner route to Diggs. "  One must defer to a QB guru here, but we've seen Allen make better throws from worse situations.....Probably the safest throw would have been to Moss, who was 2-3 yds short of the LOS but had enough space that he could probably have made it a reasonable 3rd down.

 

The thing that strikes me looking at this is the following (aside from that Allen probably had a clear throw to Beasley at this instant): the LOS is at the 38 yd line.  Dawkins is about 3 yds behind it, still blocking.  The rest of the OL, those who are still engaged, have been shoved back a good 8 yds.  I don't think that's good.

It just looked to me like a really bad decision which was definitely impacted by the pressure.

 

I think the part about the snap was right though.  Mitch Morse accepted the blame in his post game interview 

[Don Otreply]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's a quote from the book, Don.   Adapted to screen.   Justin Herberts gramps I think. 

 

 

Yup good old Frank, 😁 I read the book first, but folk don’t read ad much as the used to, so I went the movie route, 👍

[ILBillsfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The thing that strikes me looking at this is the following (aside from that Allen probably had a clear throw to Beasley at this instant): the LOS is at the 38 yd line.  Dawkins is about 3 yds behind it, still blocking.  The rest of the OL, those who are still engaged, have been shoved back a good 8 yds.  I don't think that's good.

 

Yep the blitzer came from the person over Beasley and he was wide open.  Josh definitely did not pick up that he was coming or that is where he would of went with the ball imo

 

He was also outside of the pocket and could of just heaved it out of bounds and was surprised the ball to where he did

 

Also looking at some of the early cover 1 stuff they were really muggin Beasley hard that game I thought there was a few times a flag should of been thrown 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

 

Yep the blitzer came from the person over Beasley and he was wide open.  Josh definitely did not pick up that he was coming or that is where he would of went with the ball imo

 

He was also outside of the pocket and could of just heaved it out of bounds and was surprised the ball to where he did

 

Also looking at some of the early cover 1 stuff they were really muggin Beasley hard that game I thought there was a few times a flag should of been thrown 

 

Beasley was not wide open and it was not a situation where the CB was an unblocked blitzer Josh was responsible for.  It's very clear on coach's film.  He's Williams guy.  Williams just whiffs and loses him.

 

I posted a screenshot of the little moving diagram from Gamepass yesterday.  This is just as the ball is released. As Harris (the CB, 25) blitzed, the safety (24) picked up coverage on Beasley.  Beasley is arguably open for a window of time earlier than this screenshot (need film to see at what point he turns and looks), but he's not uncovered and "wide open".  Knox is open. IMO as an outlet, Knox should have run his route a bit wider, more out by the numbers, so that Josh has more of a lane to him.  I'm unsure about this, though, and would welcome input from people who know more about route design.  Moss is wide open at the time of the throw, and probably has enough space to get some yards if not a 1st down, if Josh could throw with enough arc to get it over the congestion.

 

 

Edit: here's another screenshot of the Gamepass play diagram just after the snap.  You can see that the safety is coming forward to pick up Beasley, and that Williams is clearly free and in position to block Harris.  At the snap, Moss and Knox were both in the backfield positioned to block as well. 

 

Yeah, they were mugging Beasley.

 

 

 

 

[ILBillsfan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Beasley was not wide open and it was not a situation where the CB was an unblocked blitzer Josh was responsible for.  It's very clear on coach's film.  He's Williams guy.  Williams just whiffs and loses him.

 

I posted a screenshot of the little moving diagram from Gamepass yesterday.  This is just as the ball is released. As Harris (the CB, 25) blitzed, the safety (24) picked up coverage on Beasley.  Beasley is arguably open for a window of time earlier than this screenshot (need film to see at what point he turns and looks), but he's not uncovered and "wide open".  Knox is open. IMO as an outlet, Knox should have run his route a bit wider, more out by the numbers, so that Josh has more of a lane to him.  I'm unsure about this, though, and would welcome input from people who know more about route design.  Moss is wide open at the time of the throw, and probably has enough space to get some yards if not a 1st down, if Josh could throw with enough arc to get it over the congestion.

 

 

Edit: here's another screenshot of the Gamepass play diagram just after the snap.  You can see that the safety is coming forward to pick up Beasley, and that Williams is clearly free and in position to block Harris.  At the snap, Moss and Knox were both in the backfield positioned to block as well. 

 

Yeah, they were mugging Beasley.

 

 

 

 

 

56:17 is the interception break down.  The play is there to be made form where the Blitz came from.  Harris did a good job of not selling he was blitzing but Josh's eyes are on Beasley at the release.  But yeah Beasley is wide open for a nice quick read hit as the safety was a FD down depth but there is yardage to be made there although watching it slow motion I do not think Beasley was looking for the ball early which is key for WR as well to see the blitz and be ready earlier for the ball. Harris hits the ball that makes it flutter and come up short you will see in the video as well. Williams gives Josh a bit more time with a better block on Harris and may not even be discussing this.

 

 

 

this is the one i seen of Beasley getting mugged.    Watching the cover 1 from the passes they did show I did not see any other ones that were like it

 

 

[Big Blitz]

Allen's arm gets hit just a touch on the INT. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Big Blitz

[CSBill]

After watching the analysis, I feel better about the decision process. At the time I thought it was hero ball again, but this shows it was just an execution issue all caused by a great effort from Harris.

[BobbyC81]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would contend that McDermott’s steadfast belief and his even keel during the Bills’ desperate times in the fourth quarter were the difference. His positive leadership reminded me of a quote by John Paul Jones, the father of the U.S. Navy: “If fear is cultivated it will become stronger, if faith is cultivated it will achieve mastery.”

 

 

 

Didn’t he also play bass and keyboard for Led Zeppelin?

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

The Bolded is on point, one of my favorite lines From the movie “Dune” (the original movie that is), I quote from time to time is, “ Fear is the mind killer” it holds true in real Life as well. 
 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

That quote is from the books. Yeah, the movie used it, but that's Frank Herbert.

 

EDIT:  Ah, someone beat me to it.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[BobbyC81]

9 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

 

Yep the blitzer came from the person over Beasley and he was wide open.  Josh definitely did not pick up that he was coming or that is where he would of went with the ball imo

 

He was also outside of the pocket and could of just heaved it out of bounds and was surprised the ball to where he did

 

Also looking at some of the early cover 1 stuff they were really muggin Beasley hard that game I thought there was a few times a flag should of been thrown 

 

Dude,

It’s would’ve, could’ve and should’ve. They are contractions that are short for could have, etc.

 

 I’m sorry that the education system has failed you.

[badassgixxer05]

37 minutes ago, ColeB said:

 

Dude,

It’s would’ve, could’ve and should’ve. They are contractions that are short for could have, etc.

 

 I’m sorry that the education system has failed you.

Most just use speech to text anyways. Really no point for English writing anymore. Get with the times man! 😛