Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 D plus 10 LOL LOL 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: ⬆️ Receiving the information that Asheville, NC is filled with its comrades, Finding scrambles to call its travel agent. Or maybe it was just a comment about tie knots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 55 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Amusing, but I must disagree about the tie knot. It is classic, not outdated. A nice small knot with the obligatory dimple. Nothing wrong with that. Yes, it's too long, but the knot is actually perfect. Yes. Looks like a classic Windsor to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, Joe Ferguson forever said: Yes. Looks like a classic Windsor to me Agree. Still the best formal tie knot. Plus a large tie knot isn't a great idea on a man of his neck girth. Overall the poorly tailored suits do the job of hiding his weight issues, which is why the Fat Trump photos are almost always of him in a golf shirt. But of course James Bond was no fan of the RAF official Windsor knot: “It was tied with a Windsor knot. Bond mistrusted anyone who tied his tie with a Windsor knot. It showed too much vanity. It was often the mark of a cad. Bond decided to forget his prejudice.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 52 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: D plus 10 LOL LOL They never get into the details and how its weighted. Why are the dems suing to keep RFK off some state's ballots? would he hurt the dems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanNC Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Everything they've done already, are doing now and will do before November 5th all add up to one final narrative that has already been written: THE NEW AND IMPROVED MOST SECURE ELECTION IN US HISTORY!!!!! Unless the orange dude somehow wins. Then it will be time to burn the country down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) 36 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Agree. Still the best formal tie knot. Plus a large tie knot isn't a great idea on a man of his neck girth. Overall the poorly tailored suits do the job of hiding his weight issues, which is why the Fat Trump photos are almost always of him in a golf shirt. But of course James Bond was no fan of the RAF official Windsor knot: “It was tied with a Windsor knot. Bond mistrusted anyone who tied his tie with a Windsor knot. It showed too much vanity. It was often the mark of a cad. Bond decided to forget his prejudice.” When I wear a tie these days it usually a bow tie and my wife ties it better than I do. Don’t need worry about dipping in your soup. Can’t see trump in a bow tie. Edited August 14 by Joe Ferguson forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: D plus 10 LOL LOL Dude - really. Stop spreading dumb person math and think for yourself for once. I'm going to try making this easy for you. Here is the poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf Go to the last page and read their weighing methodology. I will copy and paste it for you: "The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and Presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The weights range from 0.052 to 6.612, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.907" Go to page 9 for the poll referenced above. Notice how they have percentages and then an unweighted N. That +2 Harris is weighted. It is not +2 because N had a +10 Dem lean. The people who do math know the election will not be a +10 Dem lean, so they weight the polls to correspond with how they think the voting will. This poll tells you exactly how that is. 33% Dem/31% Republican/36% other. This is why people like you think polls are wrong or they don't work because you literally have 0 idea how they work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: Dude - really. Stop spreading dumb person math and think for yourself for once. I'm going to try making this easy for you. Here is the poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf Go to the last page and read their weighing methodology. I will copy and paste it for you: "The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and Presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The weights range from 0.052 to 6.612, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.907" Go to page 9 for the poll referenced above. Notice how they have percentages and then an unweighted N. That +2 Harris is weighted. It is not +2 because N had a +10 Dem lean. The people who do math know the election will not be a +10 Dem lean, so they weight the polls to correspond with how they think the voting will. This poll tells you exactly how that is. 33% Dem/31% Republican/36% other. This is why people like you think polls are wrong or they don't work because you literally have 0 idea how they work. Yes I understand this - but they’re over sampling Ds. And grossly under sampling Independents. Also - it’s a poll of registered voters - not likely voters. With LEANERS in 2024 it’s 49-48 D-R as of April. See pew for party ID breakdown in the US. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/ This poll is telling you near 50 percent lean Democrat and only 40 percent lean R. 1400 of their registered voter sample - 524 lean R. But 675 lean D. Bucking all the data. Still barely gets her to plus 2 - allegedly Make of these what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 This one does similar but also thinks 54 percent of the voters are women and only 46 percent of the vote will be men. And Trump only winning 42% - he won 47 percent in 2020. Ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 These guys got the difference correct in 2022 - it was 54-44 D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Setting the table for next Saturday/Sunday and what a smashing success the DNC was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Orange man pi$$ed. Congratulating Musk on firing union workers was stoopid https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-white-working-class-voters-poll-1938946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: Setting the table for next Saturday/Sunday and what a smashing success the DNC was In which "struggling in the polls" means leading in the polls by anywhere from 1 percentage point to 5 percentage points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 hours ago, Big Blitz said: Yes I understand this - but they’re over sampling Ds. And grossly under sampling Independents. Also - it’s a poll of registered voters - not likely voters. With LEANERS in 2024 it’s 49-48 D-R as of April. See pew for party ID breakdown in the US. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/ This poll is telling you near 50 percent lean Democrat and only 40 percent lean R. 1400 of their registered voter sample - 524 lean R. But 675 lean D. Bucking all the data. Still barely gets her to plus 2 - allegedly Make of these what you will. Look at vote 2024 Vote Intent columns. unweighted N is 675 Harris, 521 Trump. Total Sample (N) is 1404 so the other votes are for 208. 675 / 1,404 = 48.07 percent 521 / 1,404 = 37.11 percent 208 / 1,404 = 14.14 percent That’s the unweighted results of the poll. The weighted results are 46/44/10. By weighting the poll, the pollster took into account that the number of people who responded most likely doesn’t correlate to how the exit polls will show party break down. Since R was under presented in the sample, the weight add 7 percent to R and dropped 2 percent for D. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4th&long Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 21 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Look at vote 2024 Vote Intent columns. unweighted N is 675 Harris, 521 Trump. Total Sample (N) is 1404 so the other votes are for 208. 675 / 1,404 = 48.07 percent 521 / 1,404 = 37.11 percent 208 / 1,404 = 14.14 percent That’s the unweighted results of the poll. The weighted results are 46/44/10. By weighting the poll, the pollster took into account that the number of people who responded most likely doesn’t correlate to how the exit polls will show party break down. Since R was under presented in the sample, the weight add 7 percent to R and dropped 2 percent for D. Ahh, back to the days of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: A chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage isn't a policy proposal. You gotta explain exactly how you'll make that happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) RVs. And Fox hates Trump …..don’t get excited they’re doing the same rope a dope surge post DNC setup to. Edited August 14 by Big Blitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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