Trump 2024?

[Joe Ferguson forever]

2 hours ago, Pokebball said:

interest rates are going to rise no matter who wins

I'll bet on the experts here:

 

But it’s the market, not the central bank, that controls long-term rates such as the 10-year, and the market sees higher rates ahead if Trump wins. “Trump’s policies, on net, would lead to weaker growth, higher inflation, and somewhat tighter Fed policy relative to the status quo,” forecasting firm Capital Economics explained in an Oct. 28 analysis. “That points to higher US Treasury yields.”

If Kamala Harris wins, the outlook for inflation and interest rates would be about the same as it is now, since she hasn’t proposed any dramatic changes that would affect rates. Under that scenario, Capital Economics expects the 10-year to average around 4% for the next year, slightly lower than it is now. But if Trump wins, the firm sees the 10-year rising to as high as 5%, with other interest rates rising in similar proportion.

Two Trump policies would drive rates higher. The biggest effect would come from his plan to slap a 20% tariff on most imports and a 60% tariff on goods from China. That would be directly inflationary. Tariffs are a tax that raises costs and prices. US importers would pay the higher tax and try to pass it on to their own customers, all the way to store shelves.

 

1 hour ago, 4th&long said:

 

In other news, MAGA's are dumb.

[sherpa]

32 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

I'll bet on the experts here:

 

But it’s the market, not the central bank, that controls long-term rates such as the 10-year, and the market sees higher rates ahead if Trump wins. “Trump’s policies, on net, would lead to weaker growth, higher inflation, and somewhat tighter Fed policy relative to the status quo,” forecasting firm Capital Economics explained in an Oct. 28 analysis. “That points to higher US Treasury yields.”

If Kamala Harris wins, the outlook for inflation and interest rates would be about the same as it is now, since she hasn’t proposed any dramatic changes that would affect rates. Under that scenario, Capital Economics expects the 10-year to average around 4% for the next year, slightly lower than it is now. But if Trump wins, the firm sees the 10-year rising to as high as 5%, with other interest rates rising in similar proportion.

Two Trump policies would drive rates higher. The biggest effect would come from his plan to slap a 20% tariff on most imports and a 60% tariff on goods from China. That would be directly inflationary. Tariffs are a tax that raises costs and prices. US importers would pay the higher tax and try to pass it on to their own customers, all the way to store shelves.

 

 

Absolute nonsense.

Of course tariffs would cause higher prices on those items impacted.

That would slow demand, and thus lower interest rates.

 

Interest rates are the free market demand for money.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

4 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Absolute nonsense.

Of course tariffs would cause higher prices on those items impacted.

That would slow demand, and thus lower interest rates.

 

Interest rates are the free market demand for money.

So people could afford less.  And that's better?  disregarding the opinion of people who make their living on prognostication re interest rates...It's not a good deal for the middle class.

Edited Tuesday at 11:19 PM by Joe Ferguson forever

[4th&long]

You can tell the election is getting close. Twitter is just filled with stuff like this. Especially after the nazi rally.

[sherpa]

14 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

So people could afford less.  And that's better?  disregarding the opinion of people who make their living on prognostication re interest rates...It's not a good deal for the middle class.

 

Are you serious?

A hint.

There are just as many people "making prognostications re interest rates" on both sides of the argument.

That is what makes the market.

 

Jeez this is stupid.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

28 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Are you serious?

A hint.

There are just as many people "making prognostications re interest rates" on both sides of the argument.

That is what makes the market.

 

Jeez this is stupid.

I'm very serious about inflation increasing.  You said demand will go down.  That's because of inflation.  What does the fed do when inflation gets out of control?  more importantly to me, what will the market do?

Edited yesterday at 12:02 AM by Joe Ferguson forever

[Joe Ferguson forever]

 A(nother) real Republican

https://www.lansingcitypulse.com/stories/i-was-the-director-of-the-michigan-republican-party-i-will-vote-for-kamala-harris,115386#google_vignette

 

I voted for Nikki Haley in the Feb. 27 primary in part to move the Republican Party past Donald Trump. She received 296,200 votes — 27 percent of the primary votes — at a time when it was clear that Trump was likely going to be the party’s nominee. Many of those 296,200 voters will not vote for Trump on Tuesday; I am one of them.    

Donald Trump and JD Vance don’t advocate for the values of the Republican Party I once knew.  

Rather than promoting trade with the rest of the world, they embrace protectionism and across-the-board tariffs that will make working families pay more for everyday goods. Harris is focused on targeted, strategic tariffs.  

Trump has no fiscal discipline. He added $8 trillion to the debt during his first term. Every time he gives a campaign speech he promises a new handout to a different group. I don’t agree with all of Harris’ economic policies, but she is more fiscally disciplined than Trump.

 

Edited yesterday at 12:10 AM by Joe Ferguson forever

[Starr-Bills]

Do we want one of these monument to be left to our grand children? (What a great design so (un)moving.

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

4 minutes ago, Starr-Bills said:

Do we want one of these monument to be left to our grand children? (What a great design so (un)moving.

 

Rick Steves drives me nuts but his travel advice is very good.  He has great guests but he always interrupts them.  He did a great doc comparing nazi Germany to the US a few yers back.  He's right on here.

[Big Blitz]

 

[sherpa]

If lower inflation is desired, practice responsible fiscal policy.

We haven't done that for years.

Monetary policy, ie., the Fed acts in response to data caused by fiscal policy.

[4th&long]

 

[ChiGoose]

Somebody seems to have gotten some

bad news about PA voting 

 

 

[ChiGoose]

If you dislike inflation, you’re really gonna dislike Trump’s tariff plan…

 

 

[4th&long]

 

[4th&long]

LOL 

 

[Big Blitz]

 

1 hour ago, ChiGoose said:

Somebody seems to have gotten some

bad news about PA voting 

 

 

 

 

Lol

 

 

 

The firewall.  Lol lol.   

[4th&long]

 

[Roundybout]

 

 

Great stuff, Don! A winning message!

[B-Man]