What's going on with the Betting Line in Bills/Chargers?

[Casey D]

So at - 5 1/2 most of the public pundits are all in on the Bills.  The line always seemed to be lower than expected-- at 538 Bills are deemed 9 point favorites.  But now the line has been driven down to 4 1/2 to 4.  Why is so much money pouring in on a 3-7 LAC team?  Sharpies seem to think they know something, but what is it? 

[Beast]

The Bills haven't beat the Chargers by double digits since 1965, spanning 24 games.

 

I think that may have something to do with it. After the Patriots, the Chargers have owned us over the years. (19-4-1)

[MDH]

Ekeler and Harris are playing.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The bills don’t blow anyone out. Every game is close 

[17islongenough]

The Chargers play everyone close

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, Casey D said:

So at - 5 1/2 most of the public pundits are all in on the Bills.  The line always seemed to be lower than expected-- at 538 Bills are deemed 9 point favorites.  But now the line has been driven down to 4 1/2 to 4.  Why is so much money pouring in on a 3-7 LAC team?  Sharpies seem to think they know something, but what is it? 

 

Offensively and defensively, the Bills and Chargers match up very well - points allowed vs scored, pass yards, rush yards.

 

Where there are advantages, they belong to the Chargers - more yards gained (401 vs 377), more rush yards gained (121 per game vs 98 per game), fewer yards given up (344 vs 374), fewer rush yards given up (115 vs 135)

[Casey D]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Offensively and defensively, the Bills and Chargers match up very well - points allowed vs scored, pass yards, rush yards.

 

Where there are advantages, they belong to the Chargers - more yards gained (401 vs 377), more rush yards gained (121 per game vs 98 per game), fewer yards given up (344 vs 374), fewer rush yards given up (115 vs 135)

So the records of 3-7 v. 7-3 make the Bills superficially seem to be strong favorites, but big bettors that do more granular analysis are focusing on these stats you think?  Thus the shrinking line?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

So at - 5 1/2 most of the public pundits are all in on the Bills.  The line always seemed to be lower than expected-- at 538 Bills are deemed 9 point favorites.  But now the line has been driven down to 4 1/2 to 4.  Why is so much money pouring in on a 3-7 LAC team?  Sharpies seem to think they know something, but what is it? 

 

Chargers lose a lot of one score games.

[Logic]

I have to think that the personnel news -- Chargers getting Ekeler and Harris back, Bills losing John Brown -- affected the line.

[Sherlock Holmes]

40 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Offensively and defensively, the Bills and Chargers match up very well - points allowed vs scored, pass yards, rush yards.

 

Where there are advantages, they belong to the Chargers - more yards gained (401 vs 377), more rush yards gained (121 per game vs 98 per game), fewer yards given up (344 vs 374), fewer rush yards given up (115 vs 135)

You forgot Joey Bosa...

[Casey D]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have to think that the personnel news -- Chargers getting Ekeler and Harris back, Bills losing John Brown -- affected the line.

Makes sense.

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

So at - 5 1/2 most of the public pundits are all in on the Bills.  The line always seemed to be lower than expected-- at 538 Bills are deemed 9 point favorites.  But now the line has been driven down to 4 1/2 to 4.  Why is so much money pouring in on a 3-7 LAC team?  Sharpies seem to think they know something, but what is it? 

The betting line opened at 6 and dropped to 4.5 with Eckler playing/Brown & Ford not. Please dont look into 538 for anything other than entertainment

[Bferra13]

John Brown really hurts. He streches the field letting Diggs and co get open. Working with a shorter field affected Josh big time on the KC and Ten games. Not gonna be easy tomorrow. Glad it is in Buffalo though, I think that is still an advantage even without fans.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The bills don’t blow anyone out. Every game is close 

was the seattle game close? my memory says it wasn't.

[Doc Brown]

I get the sharp money on the Chargers with the injury news and their 3-7 record being deceiving but we have a few things working to our advantage.

-Coming off a bye giving McDermott time to scheme against a rookie quarterback with almost all of our defensive starters back.

-Chargers are down their best CB and two of their top three pass rushers.

-Good weather and the Chargers having to travel to the East coast should favor the Bills.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

The Bills haven't beat the Chargers by double digits since 1965, spanning 24 games.

 

I think that may have something to do with it. After the Patriots, the Chargers have owned us over the years. (19-4-1)

 

While interesting, some of our players parents were not yet born in 1965. 

 

I prefer to look at our team today, and I take NOTHING for granted. One game at a time. 

[CaptnCoke11]

19 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I get the sharp money on the Chargers with the injury news and their 3-7 record being deceiving but we have a few things working to our advantage.

-Coming off a bye giving McDermott time to scheme against a rookie quarterback with almost all of our defensive starters back.

-Chargers are down their best CB and two of their top three pass rushers.

-Good weather and the Chargers having to travel to the East coast should favor the Bills.

They are getting their best CB back for Sunday.  

[SF Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

The Bills haven't beat the Chargers by double digits since 1965, spanning 24 games.

 

I think that may have something to do with it. After the Patriots, the Chargers have owned us over the years. (19-4-1)

Yep and also Jack Kemp has a nagging injury. He is dead. 

[GoBills808]

Bills money line holding steady, Bills win a close one

 

game goes under

[BillsFan4]

I’m not a gambler but I’m nervous about this game. The Bills always seem to have a hard time against the chargers. I expect it to be a tough game. Definitely not expecting an easy win.