The Mystery of the Disappearing Run Game

[YattaOkasan]

54 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good points.  Maybe I overstated my position but...  Morse was signed to an inflated contract because - if I recall correctly - we didn't have a valid option for the center position at the time.  Again, if I recall correctly, PFF had Morse graded as something like the 14th best center in the NFL prior to us signing him.   So while we ended up with the highest paid center in the league, we certainly didn't end up with the best.     

 

I truly appreciate that Beane has built a better/deeper line than Whaley.  I guess I should have said that Beane's given us some solid starters and strong depth but failed to create an elite line.  

 

The OL is better at pass pro than run blocking and I guess that makes sense.  Still, I'd like to see more holes for backs to run through and more push on 3rd or 4th and short.   At 4.0, the Bills rank in the bottom ten in ypc.  

 

Even in pass pro, the Bills have given up 20 sacks - roughly the NFL average despite having an elusive QB who's not easily sacked.  Pass pro could be better too. 

 

We have outstanding wideouts and - let's celebrate - an outstanding QB.  But our backs and OL are lagging behind.  And seeing this, I'm guessing Beane prioritized passing game skill positions.    

So I reread and I definitely agree that we dont have any All Pros/Stars on the line, and you def said in your first line that we brought in a lot which does acknowledge how Beanes has kept us stocked. 

 

I will disagree on Morse a smidge.  There was at least one more center in FA that year (former denver center; I think named Dice..?), but you are right at that time we did not have a viable center on the team.  However imo, Morse has been tremendous for us with the exception of missing some time this year.  Back to cover 1, there was a really cool video early in the season of his play that really showed his ability to really clean up in pass pro.

 

Overall I think Beane would get a B+ from me on his line rebuild.  They started from garbage if you accept that they had to eat their medicine in 2018.  That 2019 FA class was pretty impressive and I give him a good grade for Morse.  This year I think he gets another good grade cause of Daryl Williams (Winters is what you would expect for a back up).  I am still unclear on his ability to draft considering Ford has yet to be a big contributor (I thought improvement on last year could be great) but he hasnt really taken many more shots.  The other negative on him would be losing Wyatt Teller, but considering the haul in 2019 Im willing to give it a pass.  

 

I used to think like you did about prioritizing the OL but I'm not sure where I'm at now.  I definitely wanna protect Josh but good god Diggs has been so much fun.  RB is a position where we have a type (TE is another position like that) and were not setting them up as well as we did last year with outside runs.  Good conversation btw.

Edited November 26, 2020 by YattaOkasan

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Okay. But only for one series.

Behind Mr Winters perhaps

Winters is horrible. He was bad for the Jets and worse for the Bills. Cover 1 has something to say about his performance.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Winters is horrible. He was bad for the Jets and worse for the Bills. Cover 1 has something to say about his performance.

 

 

Thanks for sharing this, more good stuff.

 

It's of note that both Winters and Ford were on the injury report for the Titans game and listed as "questionable" pre-game.  Not to exclupate either of them, but a lot of Erik's bad-play examples are from a game where they were both playing hurt.  (That was the game where Spain pulled a last-minute booboo foot after not being on the injury report all week, and was declared inactive)

 

What do you think of all the eye-candy jet sweep stuff?  It seems to me we must have some "tells" in there teams are keying off on to know when to ignore it.  Doesn't show as much in these clips as in later games.  I get the idea of what it's supposed to accomplish, but is it?  Or would we be better off putting someone else who can block onto the field?

 

Aside: I've mostly observed Knox pass-blocking, where he's hit-or-miss.  Does anyone else notice that Knox's run blocking in these clips seems .....Lost in Space?  He seems to lack intuition for or awareness of where Singletary is likely to be and what to do/how to move when he loses his block and pursues it.  Then he seems to become another large fleshy obstacle Motor must avoid.  Is this just me?  I am not by any means expert in assessing quality run blocking, I just kind of know it when I see it.

 

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's my perception as well, that a major problem with the run game has been poor blocking.  And at times both McDermott and Daboll have alluded to as much.  As I recall in one press conference, one of them said something about Motor getting 4-5 "hard fought yards", but behind the LOS.

 

But the pass protection has usually not been that poor, especially up the middle - so that begs the question, are we telegraphing run plays somehow that's letting the defenders get a jump on us?

 

Is it a technical issue where somehow what the OL is trying to do for the run blocking, isn't as successful as what they do when they're pass blocking?

Hap, you hit a bunch of the points.  I would add one in a fullback helped us in the past, but the trade off is using more WR’s allows our passing game to flourish.  We’d have to use more substitutions and that begs we’d have to give up some options in the pass.  I do agree our constantly shifting line is part of the problem, and Winters is not playing well.  I wonder if they look better with the following combination of Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, and Williams.  I can’t figure out if behind closed doors, Morse didn’t play because of the concussion issues, or lack of production.   I understand they may move on from him to have $ ready in a Covid cap year, but if he is better than Winters meaning Feliciano playing Guard.

[maryland-bills-fan]

We have two 3rd round draft picks as running backs.  By the time you get out of the second round, you will get RB's who have some missing parts-  not fast enough, no break away threat, lack of pass catching,,,, somewhere the toy has some problems.  There are gaps in the abilities and the defences will ignore those weaknesses and defend against the fewer good points and shut them down.  You gotta draft higher to have confidence to get difference makers.  Or you gotta take a lot of long shot picks and hope one day you will get lucky.

 

  In 2020, Moss was the 9th RB chosen AND the overall 86th player chosen.  8 NFL teams passed on Moss and chose a different running back. 

Edward-Helaire,,,,,,Swift,,,,,,Taylor,,,,,Akers,,,,,,Dobbins,,,,,,,,,Dillon,,,,,,,Gibson,,,,,,Vaugh,,,,,,, MOSS

 

Starting RB's  who were chose before him were Edwards-Helaire (1st RB, 32nd pick  Kansas City),,,, Swift (2nd RB, 35th pick Detriot)....and Taylor (3rd RB, 41st pick Colts) .                    Notice that rookie NFL starters are picked higher than 9th RB?     ( for completeness, also "starting rookie running backs" are 11th RB and 111th player drafted J.Kelly of the 2-7 Chargers   and  James Robinson UFA of the 1-8 Jaguars).  The 5 other guys drafted earlier than Moss are 2nd string players, not starter

[hemma]

A lot of good info & vids in this thread.  Confirms to me that the rbs are not the problem.

Winters needs to sit, asap.  

With Ford dealing with an ankle, sb Dawkins ... Boettger ... Morse ... feliciano.. Williams

sit Knox (forever) go with Kroft & Gilliam

 

good thread.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, hemma said:

A lot of good info & vids in this thread.  Confirms to me that the rbs are not the problem.

Winters needs to sit, asap.  

With Ford dealing with an ankle, sb Dawkins ... Boettger ... Morse ... feliciano.. Williams

sit Knox (forever) go with Kroft & Gilliam

 

good thread.

 

I'm reluctantly coming to the opinion, and hopefully Daboll is coming to the realization, that we simply don't have the hosses to run and throw out of the same spread personnel.  We're trying to run with Knox and Davis on the field and while they aren't all the problem, they're part of it.  I'm guessing in practice against the Taxi squad they hit their blocks 9/10 times but at game speed, against the A team and a live defensive coordinator trying to stir it up, they're toast.

 

Obviously the passing game takes a hit if we have Roberts and Smith on the field, but  "we need the eggs"

 

Still hoping someone who knows more than I will comment on the reverse action eye candy Daboll loves.  I don't think it's fooling teams right now.  There may be a "tell" in it that's out there.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm reluctantly coming to the opinion, and hopefully Daboll is coming to the realization, that we simply don't have the hosses to run and throw out of the same spread personnel.  We're trying to run with Knox and Davis on the field and while they aren't all the problem, they're part of it.  I'm guessing in practice against the Taxi squad they hit their blocks 9/10 times but at game speed, against the A team and a live defensive coordinator trying to stir it up, they're toast.

 

Obviously the passing game takes a hit if we have Roberts and Smith on the field, but  "we need the eggs"

 

Still hoping someone who knows more than I will comment on the reverse action eye candy Daboll loves.  I don't think it's fooling teams right now.  There may be a "tell" in it that's out there.

 

 

I think Knox can do it hes just inconsistent at recognizing the edge player. So yeah I don’t hold a ton of hope for it. I have honestly had Kroft as TE1 for most the season. I do think 12 personnel with both of them is pretty good. Just make sure that Knox has to identify a LB to block. 
 

in one of the videos I think Eric says we run like 70% of the time we do jet motion

Edited November 26, 2020 by YattaOkasan

[dave mcbride]

On 11/25/2020 at 10:10 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Question for the Hive Mind here: What role do you feel Allen's run threat plays in how successful our run game is?  I was surprised to look it up and see that Allen is actually running pretty close to the same attempts/game this season as last - 6.8 attempts/game vs 7.2 attempts/game - and not as far off on yards/game as I thought - 27.9 ypg vs 32.9 ypg  or 5 ypg less on average.  This includes the LV game where he injured his shoulder in the 1st half and ran 3 times for -1 yds.    Obviously, Allen's focus last year and even more this year has shifted to getting the ball to his receivers vs. making yards himself.  Has that shifted too far?

 

Probably should have [posted my response from the Morse thread]  in this thread: 

 

[klos63]

On 11/25/2020 at 9:35 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Run game takes commitment. We're committed to the pass. 

Exactly, are we really upset that we didn't run more against Seattle?  Why stop throwing if you can't be stopped?

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 11/25/2020 at 5:11 PM, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Patrick Dimarco is a great blocker and to be honest all around player. His inline blocking was very good and he would just truck LB’s, CB’s and safety’s. He always seemed to be blocking or engaged with a player. 
 

I can’t remember the exact formation that we used in the 90’s but it was a shotgun formation with 3 WR’s a FB and RB in line behind the QB. I loved the versatility of that formation because when we caught a team in the wrong personnel on defense we would go K Gun and totally mess them up. 
 

Our WR core can be spoken in the same sentence with our 90’s WR’s but we have nobody on this team even close to Thurmanator 

 

I love it! You’re talking about the 2-0 personnel package, which I believe puts Buffalo’s most talented 11 players on the field:

 

QB Allen

RB Singletary

RB Moss

LT Dawkins

LG Ford

C Morse

RG Feliciano

RT Williams

WR Diggs

WR Brown (replace with Davis inside red zone?)

WR Beasley (alternate with McKenzie on occasion?)

 

Singletary and Moss have shown to be very capable receivers out of the backfield. The question is how good is their pass protection? Is it somewhat close enough to a Lee Smith or to an H-back like Gilliam? Can Moss run block in the same ballpark as a FB like DiMarco? If so, the 2-0 personnel has potential to be very dangerous and unpredictable for opposing defenses.

 

Buffalo’s rushing offense is currently ranked around #25. Daboll’s creativity alone could bump them up to around #10 for the second half of the year, which will be good enough to make a serious Super Bowl run through the winter weather. I feel the same way about the run game on offense as I do about the run game on defense: the players needed to get the job done are already on the roster.** Injuries and Covid-19 disruptions may have hampered their progress, but the talent is there. The coaches just need to be bolder and more creative, while the players need to focus better on the details during practice and film review.

 

** - an elite TE, pass-rushing DE, and big nickel safety would be nice, though!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

I love it! You’re talking about the 2-0 personnel package, which I believe puts Buffalo’s most talented 11 players on the field:

(...)

Singletary and Moss have shown to be very capable receivers out of the backfield. The question is how good is their pass protection? Is it somewhat close enough to a Lee Smith or to an H-back like Gilliam? Can Moss run block in the same ballpark as a FB like DiMarco? If so, the 2-0 personnel has potential to be very dangerous and unpredictable for opposing defenses.

 

The Bills have been using a TE, usually Knox but increasingly Kroft, in that H-back role.  I don't see that changing this year.

Kroft appears able to figure out who he's supposed to block, and block them more often than not.  Knox is more "hit and miss", sometimes literally - he can level people, or he can whiff completely.

 

Moss's blocking is a "work in progress" from what I've seen.  Singletary is improved over last year, but nowhere near FredEx level.

 

Neither Singletary nor Moss is anywhere near a Lee Smith in pass protection.  Neither are Kroft or Knox, for that matter.  Smith is basically an undersized OLman. 

 

I don't think lack of bold creativity from the coaches is the issue so much as players getting it done.

[Hampton Josh fan]

This team wants to throw to set up the run after they get a lead. I love their offense but they have diminished Motor's roll and it's affecting his confidence. He dropped a few screens and doesn't hit the hole like Moss. They have to fix this sooner rather than later. 

[3rdand12]

On 11/26/2020 at 3:47 AM, machine gun kelly said:

Hap, you hit a bunch of the points.  I would add one in a fullback helped us in the past, but the trade off is using more WR’s allows our passing game to flourish.  We’d have to use more substitutions and that begs we’d have to give up some options in the pass.  I do agree our constantly shifting line is part of the problem, and Winters is not playing well.  I wonder if they look better with the following combination of Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, and Williams.  I can’t figure out if behind closed doors, Morse didn’t play because of the concussion issues, or lack of production.   I understand they may move on from him to have $ ready in a Covid cap year, but if he is better than Winters meaning Feliciano playing Guard.

as soon as you mentioned FB I though back to the beginning of the season With Gilliam motioning out of TE to FB or backfield , and it worked.
 

i vote we start using extra blockers and learn how to run inside.
We seems to have a handle on the passing game......:)

On 11/26/2020 at 8:55 AM, hemma said:

A lot of good info & vids in this thread.  Confirms to me that the rbs are not the problem.

Winters needs to sit, asap.  

With Ford dealing with an ankle, sb Dawkins ... Boettger ... Morse ... feliciano.. Williams

sit Knox (forever) go with Kroft & Gilliam

 

good thread.

absolutely !

Edited November 27, 2020 by 3rdand12

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, klos63 said:

Exactly, are we really upset that we didn't run more against Seattle?  Why stop throwing if you can't be stopped?

This i hope is agreed upon across the board ?
 But as i mentioned well upstream or somewhere , at some point during the Playoffs Bills better be able to run the ball effectively out a base formation.
Solid execution might help.
and Dawkins or Williams should be calling out Knox's potential blocking assignment eh ? He need to be more effective

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

This i hope is agreed upon across the board ?
 But as i mentioned well upstream or somewhere , at some point during the Playoffs Bills better be able to run the ball effectively out a base formation.
Solid execution might help.
and Dawkins or Williams should be calling out Knox's potential blocking assignment eh ? He need to be more effective

 

 

That really doesn't work.  With the "amoeba" defenses our opponents are running and the post- snap adjustments, Knox really needs to just know what his keys are and how to read them.

 

[3rdand12]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

That really doesn't work.  With the "amoeba" defenses our opponents are running and the post- snap adjustments, Knox really needs to just know what his keys are and how to read them.

 

Then why doesn't he? Know what to look for presnap ?
as mentioned , he does look lost on his blocking on the occasion i have caught him.
 I really would like Knox to improve his game for Bills but i worry about his mental acuity at times  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Then why doesn't he? Know what to look for presnap ?

 

Do you have particular plays where you feel Knox shows he doesn't know what to look for pre-snap?

 

I think it's the post-snap keys and adjustments that are puzzling him:

 

"Is this a linebacker I see before me, backpeddling away from my hand? Come, let me clutch thee, I have thee not and yet I see thee still!"

 

Meanwhile the DB he's supposed to be blocking as the LB drops into coverage, is nailing the back in the backfield and Knox never looks.

 

Quote

as mentioned , he does look lost on his blocking on the occasion i have caught him.
 I really would like Knox to improve his game for Bills but i worry about his mental acuity at times  

 

He's supposed to be a pretty smart player, but I'm starting to wonder if he's a bit of a "meathead"

 

I'm also admittedly prejudiced against the Bills TE coach, but I can't help wondering if coaching is part of the issue.  The WR don't always block well, but they seem to know WHO they're supposed to block. 

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you have particular plays where you feel Knox shows he doesn't know what to look for pre-snap?

 

I think it's the post-snap keys and adjustments that are puzzling him:

 

"Is this a linebacker I see before me, backpeddling away from my hand? Come, let me clutch thee, I have thee not and yet I see thee still!"

 

Meanwhile the DB he's supposed to be blocking as the LB drops into coverage, is nailing the back in the backfield and Knox never looks.

 

 

He's supposed to be a pretty smart player, but I'm starting to wonder if he's a bit of a "meathead"

 

I'm also admittedly prejudiced against the Bills TE coach, but I can't help wondering if coaching is part of the issue.  The WR don't always block well, but they seem to know WHO they're supposed to block. 

You  retain a fine sense of humor my friend Hap.
 I tried to mention my views on Knox were not studied , more happenstance. when i saw him looking around.
so , no yes  . I cannot provide a case to defend my perception.
 whats the beef with TE Coach ?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

You  retain a fine sense of humor my friend Hap.
 I tried to mention my views on Knox were not studied , more happenstance. when i saw him looking around.
so , no yes  . I cannot provide a case to defend my perception.
 whats the beef with TE Coach ?

 

2015: Frank Cignetti, St Louis Rams OC, manages to make both Nick Foles and Case Keenum look like crap as QB.  Fired and replaced by Rob Boras, .

2016: As LA Rams OC, Rob Boras renders an ineffective offense totally impotent with Case Keenum and Jared Goff, who look quite inept.  Meanwhile Foles contemplates retirement and retreats to play backup QB in KC under Andy Reid.

2017:  Case Keenum and Vikes defeat N'Orleans in division round and contend for NFC Championship vs. Nick Foles and Philadelphia Eagles.  Foles leads Eagles to SB win

Meanwhile under Sean McVay, Goff and LA Rams go 11-5 and reach playoffs

2018: Goff and LA Rams win NFC championship and play in Superbowl

 

Let's count: that's not one, not two, but THREE different QB who went straight to the top of the league after leaving Rob Boras in their rear-view mirror.

If ever there were a clearer example of "It's not us, it's YOU" in the effect of an offensive coordinator on 3 different QB .....I can't think of one.

 

Meanwhile, Sean McDermott hires Rob Boras to be the TE coach of the Buffalo Bills (hired before Dennison), where he outlasts the first OC he is hired to work with and is still here.

 

Now maybe Rob Boras is a great TE coach.  He was a TE coach for 10 years before becoming the Rams OC.  Maybe he has a knack for it and was just out of his depth as OC.

 

But when we so consistently seem to lack decent TE play from different players drafted in different rounds with different expectations, and the TE coach is a guy who made 3 different QB who had success after they left him look crap, I'm like "Hmmmmm, could the TE coach have something to do with this?"