Top Drafting Teams in the NFL

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

15 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Steelers when it comes to defense and wideouts.  

 

I think the Steelers are great at picking guys that fit their schemes. 

 

on defense, they draft guys that fit their schemes perfectly, especially linebackers. When those guys leave in FA, they are mostly meh. 
 

And re WRs, my sense is that Ben R makes a lot of those receivers look a lot better than they are.

 

Not knocking the Steelers’ picks, but it helps having well-defined and successful schemes to then hit on specific players that fit those.
 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Shaq Mason should be a pro bowler. He is a top 5 NFL guard IMO. He got David Andrews as an UDFA too. Malcolm Butler - UDFA. If you wanna criticise the Pats drafting from 2017 on be my guest it hasn't just been bad it has been horrible. However before that they had a really solid run of good drafts even without hitting on their first rounders.

 

So my criteria is 2-3 starters every draft and one elite type player every 3 or 3 drafts. 

 

I'd argue after three drafts with Buffalo Beane has hit that. He has 2-3 starters put of his drafts and in Allen one elite type. But he does need to get better at drafting guys who are more than just starters because aside from at QB he hasn't so far hit those

 

I expect next year to be a meat and potatoes draft.  Oline, dline, and maybe an athlete for big nickel safety.

[mjt328]

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well the bar you set was 3 starting caliber players each draft... and most of these guys are starting on a playoff team. 
 

So are they not starting caliber? 
 

In the baseball scouting world we break things down a certain way. On the 20/80 scale. In order for a guy to get a specific grade and fall into a specific category they have to meet certain criteria. 
 

For example, John Means of the Orioles, when he broke out and was an All-Star and the ace of the Orioles, that doesn’t mean he was an actual ace. In reality the grade I had on him was roughly a 55, which means he’s a #4-5 starter on a playoff caliber team. 
 

But if we’re grading all of these picks, they’re starting on a playoff caliber team... so they can’t be below average, at least not all of them. It’s impossible. Because in theory they would go to average and below average teams and be one of the top players. 

 

This is a fair point, and one of the reasons I'm still on a "wait and see" approach with Beane's drafts.

 

My concern is that eventually, the salary cap will force us to rely more heavily on these draft picks to contribute.  

-  Cody Ford will likely need to replace either Jon Feliciano or Darryl Williams.  

-  AJ Epenesa will likely need to replace either Jerry Hughes or Mario Addison

-  We may not be able to afford Matt Milano, and will need to draft his replacement

 

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I expect next year to be a meat and potatoes draft.  Oline, dline, and maybe an athlete for big nickel safety.

I’ve got news for you; the last two drafts have been “meat and potatoes” and there’s little to show for it...

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

This is a fair point, and one of the reasons I'm still on a "wait and see" approach with Beane's drafts.

 

My concern is that eventually, the salary cap will force us to rely more heavily on these draft picks to contribute.  

-  Cody Ford will likely need to replace either Jon Feliciano or Darryl Williams.  

-  AJ Epenesa will likely need to replace either Jerry Hughes or Mario Addison

-  We may not be able to afford Matt Milano, and will need to draft his replacement

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah for sure. It’s going to come down to the synergy between the coaching staff and front office... which I think we’ve got one of the most in sync groups in professional sports. 
 

McDermott can get a lot out of a little and keep guys focused. Beane has done a good job finding starting quality guys, maybe not stars, but guys who can contribute in every draft. He’s also done well for himself on waivers and with a decent portion of his FA signings. He’s missed of course, but he hits more than he misses. 
 

I think they have the 4 things it takes to be successful and make drafts look even better than they are...

 

1) Good Owner

2) Good GM

3) Good HC

4) Good QB

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, OZBILLS said:

Just be like KC. Draft the once in a generation QB and then pick up troubled first rounders for pennies on the dollar through being awesome

 

 

Not really.  Their picks after 1st round have been great:  Hardman, Thornhill, Hunt, Kpassagnon, Chris Jones, Hill, Houston, kelce.

 

Plus they hit on their 1st rounders: C E-H, Mahomes, Peters, Ford, Fisher, Poe, Berry----that's every 1st rounder they have picked since 2010 except one dud (Baldwin).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

36 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’ve got news for you; the last two drafts have been “meat and potatoes” and there’s little to show for it...

 

Oliver, epenesa, ford.  Phillips the year before, Dawkins the year before that.  The Teller trade now looks like a mistake, as he's been a solid contributor for cleveland - demetrious johnson is a 7th round pick so i don't consider that much of an investment.

 

So... 6 total linemen in 4 years.  Free agency is before the draft, but of the interior linemen i'm not sure they're set with butler, jefferson, phillips as the guys with oliver and star (who re-did his contract and will be returning in 2021).  On offense the line is in flux - you have dawkins ford morse and younger depth players.  Feliciano, Nsekhe, and Williams are all free agents.  

 

You aren't getting stud linemen by trading for them so if you want to go from ok to good on the line, you need to invest draft capital.  If they prioritize milano, I could see needs along the right side of the line.  

[mannc]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Oliver, epenesa, ford.  Phillips the year before, Dawkins the year before that.  The Teller trade now looks like a mistake, as he's been a solid contributor for cleveland - demetrious johnson is a 7th round pick so i don't consider that much of an investment.

 

So... 6 total linemen in 4 years.  Free agency is before the draft, but of the interior linemen i'm not sure they're set with butler, jefferson, phillips as the guys with oliver and star (who re-did his contract and will be returning in 2021).  On offense the line is in flux - you have dawkins ford morse and younger depth players.  Feliciano, Nsekhe, and Williams are all free agents.  

 

You aren't getting stud linemen by trading for them so if you want to go from ok to good on the line, you need to invest draft capital.  If they prioritize milano, I could see needs along the right side of the line.  

I hate to break the news to you, but our offensive line is better than average, especially in pass pro.  Quality o-linemen absolutely can be had in free agency.  
 

Our last three premium picks (first two rounds) have been linemen, and none have been difference-makers.  Our last two 3rd round picks have been used on slow running backs who scare no one.  We need to use our premium picks on offensive playmakers and probably a DB.

[Einstein's Dog]

25 minutes ago, mannc said:

I hate to break the news to you, but our offensive line is better than average, especially in pass pro.  Quality o-linemen absolutely can be had in free agency.  
 

Our last three premium picks (first two rounds) have been linemen, and none have been difference-makers.  Our last two 3rd round picks have been used on slow running backs who scare no one.  We need to use our premium picks on offensive playmakers and probably a DB.

Good teams can use draft picks that can be developed and moved into the starting lineup.   Espensa is a prime example.  He can develop and then move up the chain.  This can allow the Bills to move on from a high priced lineman and use the money in another area.  Murphy looks like he will be gone.  The team will save money and get younger in the D-line.

 

If you want your drafts to be successful in team building you have to have some patience.  The 2 RBs need to be incorporated.  You don't draft another.  I could see another try at TE.

 

And while quality o-linemen can be had in free agency, they don't come cheap.  You want to create an o-line that has consistency from year to year.  Adding a good developmental piece that works into the lineup is a great way to get a unit that doesn't have a lot of turnover from year to year.

 

 

 

[DeltaDigital]

19 hours ago, Simon said:

Heck, that's nothing.

Can you imagine being the sumbitch that traded away Brett Favre?! 

Now that's an Oops. 

 

Yet another black eye for the Atlanta organization. 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Oliver, epenesa, ford.  Phillips the year before, Dawkins the year before that.  The Teller trade now looks like a mistake, as he's been a solid contributor for cleveland - demetrious johnson is a 7th round pick so i don't consider that much of an investment.

 

So... 6 total linemen in 4 years.  Free agency is before the draft, but of the interior linemen i'm not sure they're set with butler, jefferson, phillips as the guys with oliver and star (who re-did his contract and will be returning in 2021).  On offense the line is in flux - you have dawkins ford morse and younger depth players.  Feliciano, Nsekhe, and Williams are all free agents.  

 

You aren't getting stud linemen by trading for them so if you want to go from ok to good on the line, you need to invest draft capital.  If they prioritize milano, I could see needs along the right side of the line.  

One could argue by having the surplus of picks we got from Teller allowed us to trade for Diggs. While Teller looks better than what we have now it was hard to project that his rookie season. If anything I'd say it was a wash. 

[PonyBoy]

18 hours ago, OZBILLS said:

Just be like KC. Draft the once in a generation QB and then pick up troubled first rounders for pennies on the dollar through being awesome

Being able to draft Clyde Helaire that late in the 1st is an example. Not fair for Super Bowl champs to get that much talent that late.

[Buffalo Junction]

22 hours ago, Simon said:

Favre was acquired in a trade

Which they might not have done if The Majik Man hadn’t been injured. Let’s not forget that they drafted the kid from Depew who would lead the league in passing yards in 1989. Damn shame, but rotator cup injuries back then were career tragedies for QBs. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[QLBillsFan]

11 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Oliver, epenesa, ford.  Phillips the year before, Dawkins the year before that.  The Teller trade now looks like a mistake, as he's been a solid contributor for cleveland - demetrious johnson is a 7th round pick so i don't consider that much of an investment.

 

So... 6 total linemen in 4 years.  Free agency is before the draft, but of the interior linemen i'm not sure they're set with butler, jefferson, phillips as the guys with oliver and star (who re-did his contract and will be returning in 2021).  On offense the line is in flux - you have dawkins ford morse and younger depth players.  Feliciano, Nsekhe, and Williams are all free agents.  

 

You aren't getting stud linemen by trading for them so if you want to go from ok to good on the line, you need to invest draft capital.  If they prioritize milano, I could see needs along the right side of the line.  

People keep referring to the Tellar trade as a mistake. I’m glad he’s doing well in Cleveland but he was not doing well enough on the Bills to crack the lineup. Our OL is fairly deep and when healthy I would not have seen him starting. The sign of a good team is trading or releasing players that contribute elsewhere.

 

[JGMcD2]

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

I was trying to check into this a little deeper and see if I could find a way to compare the Bills drafts since McDermott and Beane got to Buffalo. This isn't perfect, but I wanted something other than people just throwing their feelings around. I used Pro Football References Weighted Career Approximate Value... it's not perfect but they do say it's a fairly objective measurement to use to evaluate a draft class. I don't think it's as useful as WAR in the MLB is, I'm pretty familiar with WAR and this isn't really the same concept. The definition is below. 

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

You will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them... so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because well... it's not helping the Bills. 

 

I did one including 2017 which I will call McBeane and I did another one omitting 2017 which I will just call Beane. This should give us some separation between those who say that Beane didn't conduct the first draft, therefore he's not a good drafter, etc. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how Beane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go..

 

.

 

If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them.

 

If you look at the Beane only drafts (2018-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see the Bills just outside of the top 5, tied at 6 with the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis and Baltimore stay strong at the top, as well as SF. CLE and NYG jump up above us, CLE is aided by their very strong 2018 where they got Mayfield, Ward and Chubb. Although we drop a little bit with just Beane, we're still in the top 6 in the NFL.

 

Obviously, OBVIOUSLY they need some more time with these picks. Some players will have better and longer careers and things will start to change, but overall right now it looks like McBeane has done a very solid job drafting since they've come to Buffalo. It looks like a few guys from 2020 should do well for themselves including Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass. Epenesa, Moss and Jackson have shown flashes. Not everyone is going to be a contributor... but so far under this regime the Bills have done well for themselves. I can't predict the future, but I can show you the past... and it shows the value we've gotten so far is in fact elite when compared to the other 31 teams. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

I was trying to check into this a little deeper and see if I could find a way to compare the Bills drafts since McDermott and Beane got to Buffalo. This isn't perfect, but I wanted something other than people just throwing their feelings around. I used Pro Football References Weighted Career Approximate Value... it's not perfect but they do say it's a fairly objective measurement to use to evaluate a draft class. I don't think it's as useful as WAR in the MLB is, I'm pretty familiar with WAR and this isn't really the same concept. The definition is below. 

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

You will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them... so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because well... it's not helping the Bills. 

 

I did one including 2017 which I will call McBeane and I did another one omitting 2017 which I will just call Beane. This should give us some separation between those who say that Beane didn't conduct the first draft, therefore he's not a good drafter, etc. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how Beane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go..

 

.

 

If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them.

 

If you look at the Beane only drafts (2018-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see the Bills just outside of the top 5, tied at 6 with the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis and Baltimore stay strong at the top, as well as SF. CLE and NYG jump up above us, CLE is aided by their very strong 2018 where they got Mayfield, Ward and Chubb. Although we drop a little bit with just Beane, we're still in the top 6 in the NFL.

 

Obviously, OBVIOUSLY they need some more time with these picks. Some players will have better and longer careers and things will start to change, but overall right now it looks like McBeane has done a very solid job drafting since they've come to Buffalo. It looks like a few guys from 2020 should do well for themselves including Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass. Epenesa, Moss and Jackson have shown flashes. Not everyone is going to be a contributor... but so far under this regime the Bills have done well for themselves. I can't predict the future, but I can show you the past... and it shows the value we've gotten so far is in fact elite when compared to the other 31 teams. 

Nice work. This will be an interesting thing to look at going forward. Is this same type of thing possible for free agency classes (isolating the time played with current team only, not time with previous teams).

 

That would provide a full GM picture if you can look at draft classes AND free agency classes. You could then combine the metrics to come up with a single GM score card somehow.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

I was trying to check into this a little deeper and see if I could find a way to compare the Bills drafts since McDermott and Beane got to Buffalo. This isn't perfect, but I wanted something other than people just throwing their feelings around. I used Pro Football References Weighted Career Approximate Value... it's not perfect but they do say it's a fairly objective measurement to use to evaluate a draft class. I don't think it's as useful as WAR in the MLB is, I'm pretty familiar with WAR and this isn't really the same concept. The definition is below. 

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

You will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them... so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because well... it's not helping the Bills. 

 

I did one including 2017 which I will call McBeane and I did another one omitting 2017 which I will just call Beane. This should give us some separation between those who say that Beane didn't conduct the first draft, therefore he's not a good drafter, etc. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how Beane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go..

 

.

 

If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them.

 

If you look at the Beane only drafts (2018-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see the Bills just outside of the top 5, tied at 6 with the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis and Baltimore stay strong at the top, as well as SF. CLE and NYG jump up above us, CLE is aided by their very strong 2018 where they got Mayfield, Ward and Chubb. Although we drop a little bit with just Beane, we're still in the top 6 in the NFL.

 

Obviously, OBVIOUSLY they need some more time with these picks. Some players will have better and longer careers and things will start to change, but overall right now it looks like McBeane has done a very solid job drafting since they've come to Buffalo. It looks like a few guys from 2020 should do well for themselves including Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass. Epenesa, Moss and Jackson have shown flashes. Not everyone is going to be a contributor... but so far under this regime the Bills have done well for themselves. I can't predict the future, but I can show you the past... and it shows the value we've gotten so far is in fact elite when compared to the other 31 teams. 

 

This is really interesting stuff, thanks. I think this metric will always look a little better for Beane because I don't think anyone doubts that he has been solid at finding contributors. Harrison Phillips is probably a bust and the jury remains out on Knox but generally the other guys Beane has taken in the first 4 rounds start on the football team. The question that remains is can he find stars? Josh Allen absolutely is one, and if Edmunds or Oliver can go from good starter to star (both have been up and down this year but seem to be rounding into form) then I feel like Beane will deserve to be considered in that top 5. Personally at the moment I would still have his work ranked in that 6-12 bracket. Contributors are good, and you never go broke making a profit, but teams that win Superbowls have 4-6 elite players. The Bills have Tre White.... and then Diggs and Allen who are on the cusp. We need to find 1 or 2 more..... if both Edmunds and Oliver were to get there and the Bills are creative with the cap to keep them all then they have a Superbowl window for the next 4 to 5 seasons.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 11/24/2020 at 8:02 AM, GunnerBill said:

Mickey Loomis (Saints), Kevin Colbert (Steelers), Rick Spielman (Vikings), Brett Veach (Chiefs), John Lynch (49ers), Jon Robinson (Titans), Howie Roseman (Eagles), Chris Ballard (Colts). 

 

After that there is Belichick (who has drafted badly the last 4 years but had a 10 year stretch before that where he was excellent), John Schneider (Seahawks) who misses on his first round choice pretty much every year but has a stellar record rounds 2 through 7 and Jerry Jones (albeit Will McClay is the one who deserves the credit) has drafted really well the last 10 years or so. Eric DeCosta played a key role in the front office with Ozzie Newsome but a bit early to judge him as a drafter in his own right. 

 

Agree totally with this. At the moment Beane is above average because, and only because, of Josh Allen. He has been average beyond that. He has drafted guys who can play. He hasn't drafted any other stars. GMs ultimately get judged by pro bowlers and all pros as much as wins and losses. 

Josh allen was such a huge risk so I think its pretty safe to call beane above average based on that pick alone...also seeing how unsuccessful a lot of those other qbs from that draft have been.  Still too early to rate Ed Oliver or Edmunds. Wyatt teller has been great but i dont think he counts since we traded him 🤣 Tyler bass in the 6th could be a nice pickup.  Gabe Davis has made some plays.  Its hard to rate our running backs seeing as our offensive line seems to be horrendous at run blocking lol 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Josh allen was such a huge risk so I think its pretty safe to call beane above average based on that pick alone...also seeing how unsuccessful a lot of those other qbs from that draft have been.  Still too early to rate Ed Oliver or Edmunds. Wyatt teller has been great but i dont think he counts since we traded him 🤣 Tyler bass in the 6th could be a nice pickup.  Gabe Davis has made some plays.  Its hard to rate our running backs seeing as our offensive line seems to be horrendous at run blocking lol 

 

Our running backs are another example IMO. Both of them can play. They are NFL players. But not sure either has what it takes to be a top end running back. They are both good #2 types for me. Contributors, but not difference makers.

Edited December 1, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Billy Claude]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Our running backs are another example IMO. Both of them can play. They are NFL players. But not sure either has what it takes to be a top end running back. They are both good #2 types for me. Contributors, but not difference makers.

 

Based on their play at the end of last season, I was hoping to see a big step up from both Tremaine Edmunds and Ed Oliver.  For whatever reason it hasn't happened though they have been looking better recently.   If either one becomes real stars, there would be no question that Beane is one of the top drafting GMs.