The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[Buffalo Junction]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's fair.  But I still don't think he's the field general he's going to be come.  But that's nitpicking.  

He isn’t, and that’s what has every Bills fan excited. One thing I’ve been wondering is.... What if he takes another step this year like he has during off time the previous two seasons? 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

He isn’t, and that’s what has every Bills fan excited. One thing I’ve been wondering is.... What if he takes another step this year like he has during off time the previous two seasons? 

Well, don't count on that.  As the years go by, it's more about learning smaller and smaller details, so the progress is smaller and smaller.  

 

However, having said that, I keep watching Mahomes and reminding myself that Allen is still at least a year behind him in development.  Mahomes looks better to me every year, but his progress is slowing too.  Maybe next year's version of Allen will look like this year's version of Mahomes.  

[JohnNord]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

I don’t agree with everything here - especially the “built to peak in December” line.

 

Is their record better than metrics like DVOA?  Maybe.  But DVOA also rates Miami as a much better team than they are in reality.  Also I believe Baltimore had the highest highest DVOA and they got bounced in the first round of the playoff game.
 

Im not as sold on point differential either.  Looking at the stat alone to define a good team lacks a lot of context.

 

With that being said, you did a good job summing job the team.  They can pass and stop the pass but can’t run or stop the run.  I see KC in a league of their own, maybe Pittsburgh based on record, but I think Buffalo is right there with about 6 other AFC teams.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I understand where the OP is coming from. 

I agree the most on the point that the Bills are a soft team.  They do not physically match up to tough teams like Tenn. I've been more impressed with mental toughness this year. Other than Tenn, they have not folded in a game and have made several come from behind successful drives. The AZ game needed key defensive stops just so Josh could drive them to the Diggs TD.

I agree stopping the run is a problem but I don't really care about the ability of Bills to run the ball.  I care most about the lack of consistent pass rush, that I will say has gotten better the last three games and may yet turn out ok if Milano comes back healthy.

Josh is solidly a top 10 QB and on any given day he can play like a top 5 guy. The old timers(Brady,Rivers,Brees) are in the 5-10 crowd and what they have in experience Josh makes up for in running ability and arm strength. 

I also agree with what others have said. There usually are only 2-3 truly elite teams and then there are a bunch of other contenders. Even those elite teams have flaws in particular on defense.

The Bills have beaten a few contenders already this season but got throttled by KC. 

Thus I would say the Bills are contenders just not elite. 

All that said, win the division, get a home playoff game, get healthy late and anything can happen in the playoffs.  

[Solomon Grundy]

The physical toughness is what concerns me. Offensively, we can get there. Have players now to be more physical on the offensive line. Hopefully the staff will spot the weak links in Morse and Winters. On the defense, Dane Jackson can be that physical CB needed opposite Tre. Still need a bigger nickel, Taron doesn't fill that void. We already know about the trenches

[Charles Romes]

If they play the way they did against the Seahawks (which was not perfect) they can win the Lombardi THIS YEAR. We have the best receiving corps in the history of the franchise and are explosive enough to make up for many sins in other areas.  

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, don't count on that.  As the years go by, it's more about learning smaller and smaller details, so the progress is smaller and smaller.  

 

However, having said that, I keep watching Mahomes and reminding myself that Allen is still at least a year behind him in development.  Mahomes looks better to me every year, but his progress is slowing too.  Maybe next year's version of Allen will look like this year's version of Mahomes.  

Mahomes has 2 things Josh don't, a running game and a tight end. 

[Alphadawg7]

When are people going to learn to stop scouring stat sheets to make concrete evaluations.  The OP and his thoughts are a clear example of coming to false conclusions based solely off stat sheet analysis.  The Allen comment for one is a perfect example, saying he’s barely too 10 based on some stat rankings.  He’s better off than that and the stat sheet doesn’t show the impact of not having John Brown, not having a run game, wearing a shoulder brace for 4 games, etc.  

 

Another example missing from the team stats, it does not take into account strength of schedule thus far either.  We are among the leaders (if not the leader) in most wins vs teams above .500 this year and had the 6th hardest schedule this year and the bulk of that tough schedule was over the first 10 games.  And we were one fluke away from 8-2 during that stretch.  
 

Team stats don’t show how many critical players we missed at times this year including all of our top 4 DBs missing a lot of games combined, Milano missing a lot of time, Edmunds missing time and playing hurt, etc.  

 

Stat sheet also doesn’t measure up he heart of this team, which I will argue is amongst the best in the league.

 

End of the day, Allen is a top 5 QB right now, and this is a top end football team in the category with other 7/8 win teams.  I actually think we may be a better team than Pittsburgh.

Sorry, just think this was not a thread I will have much common ground with, it’s a false negative in my mind.  This was an attempt IMO by the OP to find stats that support their somewhat pessimistic view points more than anything. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[Simon]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He’s better off than that and the stat sheet doesn’t show the impact of not having John Brown, not having a run game, wearing a shoulder brace for 4 games, etc.  

 

Having the interior of his OLine shredded should be at the top of that list, imo.

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

most wins vs teams above .500 this year

Thank you for mentioning this. It was the first thing that popped into my head when reading the OP.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Simon said:

 

Having the interior of his OLine shredded should be at the top of that list, imo.

Thank you for mentioning this. It was the first thing that popped into my head when reading the OP.

Yes you are correct, interior OL issues as well.  

[LB48]

8 hours ago, wvbillsfan said:

I think our schedule says we are a really good team. The wins we have over other teams with winning records says we are a really good team. What I'm missing from the post is what teams are above us.

 

I can't get behind Josh Allen barely being a top 10 qb. Other than Mahomes and Rodgers who would you rather have right now? Wilson...I won't argue too hard. But the list of qbs better than Allen right now is not very long. 

I agree with your comments.  Being a 'top tier' team in the NFL is short-lived.

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

When are people going to learn to stop scouring stat sheets to make concrete evaluations.  The OP and his thoughts are a clear example of coming to false conclusions based solely off stat sheet analysis.  The Allen comment for one is a perfect example, saying he’s barely too 10 based on some stat rankings.  He’s better off than that and the stat sheet doesn’t show the impact of not having John Brown, not having a run game, wearing a shoulder brace for 4 games, etc.  

 

Another example missing from the team stats, it does not take into account strength of schedule thus far either.  We are among the leaders (if not the leader) in most wins vs teams above .500 this year and had the 6th hardest schedule this year and the bulk of that tough schedule was over the first 10 games.  And we were one fluke away from 8-2 during that stretch.  
 

Team stats don’t show how many critical players we missed at times this year including all of our top 4 DBs missing a lot of games combined, Milano missing a lot of time, Edmunds missing time and playing hurt, etc.  

 

Stat sheet also doesn’t measure up he heart of this team, which I will argue is amongst the best in the league.

 

End of the day, Allen is a top 5 QB right now, and this is a top end football team in the category with other 7/8 win teams.  I actually think we may be a better team than Pittsburgh.

Sorry, just think this was not a thread I will have much common ground with, it’s a false negative in my mind.  This was an attempt IMO by the OP to find stats that support their somewhat pessimistic view points more than anything. 

The OP tends to find negatives about recent Bills teams.  He's a SB era guy!

[billsfan89]

The Bills are a very good team. They can win playoff games. However i just don't see them winning more than 2 playoff games (and they have to run into the right matchup to win 2.) 

 

They are missing some key pieces on defense to be a true contender. I still think the one tech is a concern, the lack of an elite edge rusher a fatal flaw, LB play is also not where it needs to be (hopefully the bye week helps) and CB play could be a concern if T.Johnson continues to struggle and Levi isn't back to where he needs to be. 

 

The offense can win a shootout with the best of them and I think the ST unit is one of the top 7 in the league. I think the Bills go 11-5, win the division and win a playoff game. But beyond that the teams defensive flaws are likely to be exposed.

[Shaw66]

I think it's funny Alpha and LB think I'm a pessimist.   That is really laugh out loud funny.  I'm the one who's been saying for a year and a half that we're watching the development of one of the great teams of all time in terms of sustained, long-term excellent.   I don't remember anyone calling me a pessimist when I wrote that. 

 

Alpha, if you read my post again, it's pretty clear, I think, that although I started from the stats, I went beyond that.  Most people who have commented in this thread seem to understand that.  

 

And, to those who think I undervalued Josh, as I watch the beginning of the Bucs game, I began thinking more about the top 10 QBs.   Right now, today, looking at six game and the playoffs, I'd for sure rather have Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Mahomes.   Probably Brees, if he was healthy.  So right there, Josh isn't in my top five.  I probably put Watson ahead of Josh.  I might put a couple of others up there.  So I stand by my "barely top ten" evaluation.   Not in terms of long term; as I said, my long-term top five clearly has Allen in it.  But for this stretch run, Allen is not there yet. 

[34-78-83]

Shaw, you are one of my favorite posters.

 

Regarding the Josh point.

 

Josh's following abilities easily make him a top 5 QB in the NFL today.

 

- avoid the rush

- extend plays

- throw on time and on target with both velocity and touch sometimes even while under contact or off his base

- read defenses and make adjustments 

- run the ball for large chunks of yardage in both scramble situations and designed runs

- utilize the entire field on any given play, making the defense stay honest or pay

- operate an offense with no running game balance

- lead his team on game tying or leading drives when down

 

Watch more of the all 22 breakdowns and compare to his peers. Cover1 does some really good ones that break Josh down weekly.

Here's a fun look at the season so far for Josh : Josh's season to date

[Stank_Nasty]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's funny Alpha and LB think I'm a pessimist.   That is really laugh out loud funny.  I'm the one who's been saying for a year and a half that we're watching the development of one of the great teams of all time in terms of sustained, long-term excellent.   I don't remember anyone calling me a pessimist when I wrote that. 

 

Alpha, if you read my post again, it's pretty clear, I think, that although I started from the stats, I went beyond that.  Most people who have commented in this thread seem to understand that.  

 

And, to those who think I undervalued Josh, as I watch the beginning of the Bucs game, I began thinking more about the top 10 QBs.   Right now, today, looking at six game and the playoffs, I'd for sure rather have Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Mahomes.   Probably Brees, if he was healthy.  So right there, Josh isn't in my top five.  I probably put Watson ahead of Josh.  I might put a couple of others up there.  So I stand by my "barely top ten" evaluation.   Not in terms of long term; as I said, my long-term top five clearly has Allen in it.  But for this stretch run, Allen is not there yet. 

I’d argue against Ben. And maybe Brady. Their YPA’s are 25th and 23rd respectively. I’ve watched quite a it of Big Ben this year and I’m not exaggerating when I say I think almost 3/4 of his passes don’t travel further than 5-6 yards. 

 

Steelers and bucs have elite defenses as well. And have shown they can usually run when needed. Josh Allen has faced 7 winning teams at this point through ten games and has more or less been a one man show. It’s Allen or bust. I think Allen has been asked to do way more without the luxury of a top 5 d or run game and his overall production shows that as well. 
 

I think he’s FIRMLY in the top ten if we are talking this year and depending on how he finishes that could very well be top 5. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Johnnycage46]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's funny Alpha and LB think I'm a pessimist.   That is really laugh out loud funny.  I'm the one who's been saying for a year and a half that we're watching the development of one of the great teams of all time in terms of sustained, long-term excellent.   I don't remember anyone calling me a pessimist when I wrote that. 

 

Alpha, if you read my post again, it's pretty clear, I think, that although I started from the stats, I went beyond that.  Most people who have commented in this thread seem to understand that.  

 

And, to those who think I undervalued Josh, as I watch the beginning of the Bucs game, I began thinking more about the top 10 QBs.   Right now, today, looking at six game and the playoffs, I'd for sure rather have Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Mahomes.   Probably Brees, if he was healthy.  So right there, Josh isn't in my top five.  I probably put Watson ahead of Josh.  I might put a couple of others up there.  So I stand by my "barely top ten" evaluation.   Not in terms of long term; as I said, my long-term top five clearly has Allen in it.  But for this stretch run, Allen is not there yet. 

 

Again, your "barely top ten" is complete rubbish and based on your thoughts and feelings and not stats.  You are laugh out loud funny.

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Having the interior of his OLine shredded should be at the top of that list, imo.

Thank you for mentioning this. It was the first thing that popped into my head when reading the OP.

We’ve played and beaten more winning teams than just about everyone.  When done with the Fish, and Steelers, we should have the winningest schedule and played the most teams with winning records.  Not saying we will beat both teams above, but we will be ready for the playoffs.  More battle tested than anyone.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’d argue against Ben. And maybe Brady. Their YPA’s are 25th and 23rd respectively. I’ve watched quite a it of Big Ben this year and I’m not exaggerating when I say I think almost 3/4 of his passes don’t travel further than 5-6 yards. 

 

Steelers and bucs have elite defenses as well. And have shown they can usually run when needed. Josh Allen has faced 7 winning teams at this point through ten games and has more or less been a one man show. It’s Allen or bust. I think Allen has been asked to do way more without the luxury of a top 5 d or run game and his overall production shows that as well. 
 

I think he’s FIRMLY in the top ten if we are talking this year and depending on how he finishes that could very well be top 5. 

I guess it's about what you value.   Two minutes to go, down 5 in the AFC Championship game, I want Brady or Ben in the huddle over Josh.   Yes, I agree that purely physically, neither holds a candle to Josh.   I want their knowledge and experience.  

 

Ben may be throwing 3/4 of his passes less than 10 yards, but guess what, so is Josh.  Most of those downfield beauties from the first four weeks are history.  Teams have forced the Bills into the short game.   Even KC has been forced into the short game.  In that kind of game, Ben's brain gives him the advantage over Josh.  

[JaCrispy]

4 hours ago, Putin said:

I’m pretty sure Tre was McD’s pick 

Exactly 

[Johnnycage46]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I guess it's about what you value.   Two minutes to go, down 5 in the AFC Championship game, I want Brady or Ben in the huddle over Josh.   Yes, I agree that purely physically, neither holds a candle to Josh.   I want their knowledge and experience.  

 

Ben may be throwing 3/4 of his passes less than 10 yards, but guess what, so is Josh.  Most of those downfield beauties from the first four weeks are history.  Teams have forced the Bills into the short game.   Even KC has been forced into the short game.  In that kind of game, Ben's brain gives him the advantage over Josh.  

 

Yards per attempt this year and NFL ranking.

 

Allen 8th at 7.9
Ben 26th at 6.7

Edited November 24, 2020 by Johnnycage46