The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, StHustle said:

This ruined your whole post to me. Barely top 10? Really?????

 

I was wondering about that myself. 

 

If I recall correctly, @Shaw66 is historically a huge component of passer rating (the conventional passer rating, not Total QBR).  I could be mistaken on this.

 

Currently Josh is #9 in the league in passer rating at 103.2.  Ahead of him are Herbert, Tannehill, Desean Watson, and Derek Carr, then Brees, Wilson, Rodgers, and Mahomes.

 

I don't think anyone would argue with the top 4.  I think many of us would give the side-eye to the 4 who are ranked just above Allen.  Critics of passer rating point out that "it does not take into account a quarterbacks rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, sacks, or fumbles and favors quarterbacks that are efficient over effective."  An example they give is that a QB who makes 3 - 3 yd completions but fails to convert a 3rd down would have a higher passer rating than a QB who throws 2 incompletions than a 10+ yd completion to move the chains.

 

There are some stats where Allen is out of the top 10 (TD % 12, INT % 15, sack % 16).  There are others where he's higher (on-target % 3rd for example)

 

I think we saw last year that Allen's contribution to the Bills team is greater than the sum of his individual stats, and that's still true this year.

[bobobonators]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

What are the tiers? 
 

Its subjective but you probably have something like:

 

1. Elite

2. Good

3. Average

4. Below average

5. Bad

 

id say we rank in the top part of the Good category. Realistically there are probably only 2 teams in the elite category right now - Steelers and Chiefs. 
 

then there is a log jam at the good teams consisting of probably 10 teams

 

then another log jam of average/below avg teams consisting of another 12-15

 

Finally a couple of god awful teams. 
 

So yeh technically we arent top tier no matter what scale you use, but like you said, we’re close. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

 

"In the bottom of the top 10" might seem more objective.  Fair descriptive all around.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

I actually think the Bills’ overall talent level is average at best.  Josh Allen’s remarkable ascent to top-5 NFL QB has covered up some truly lousy drafting by Beane.  If anything happens to JA, we are in Jets territory.  

 

This is weird but overstated truth.  JA was a liability his first year and a sometimes-liability his second.  Now he carries the team.

 

Meanwhile the strength of the team - the defense - has become the liability.  

 

Without JA, we're not Jets bad but we're not good.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

I actually think the Bills’ overall talent level is average at best.  Josh Allen’s remarkable ascent to top-5 NFL QB has covered up some truly lousy drafting by Beane.  If anything happens to JA, we are in Jets territory.  

 

 

2018 Josh with Foster, Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Charles Clay and McKenzie -- Not very good.

 

2019 Josh with  McKenzie, Smoke Brown, and Beasley 67 catches for 778 yards, 6 td -- Better Still a ?

 

2020 Josh with Diggs, Smoke Brown, Beasley and Gabriel Davis.  Top 6 in passing yards, Top 8 in TD's, Top 8 in Comp %   MVP consideration. 

 

 

 

[InEnemyTerritory]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Power Rankings (I'll do a top 14 since thats the number of playoff teams)

 

1. Chiefs

2. Steelers

3. Saints 

4. Tampa

5. Ravens (missing those 2 on the DL is a big deal)

6. Bills 

7. Colts

8. Packers 

9. Seahawks

10. Titans

11. Rams

12. Arizona

13. Browns 

14. Vegas

 

 

All of these teams have flaws. 

 

All of them can beat any of them.  We are 3-3 against 6 of them.    

 

I'm not sure there is an "elite" team that I want no part of.  The Ravens and Steelers D.  I don't want anything to do with those defensive.

For me, the Ravens offense is faulty enough that I think the Bills could win a low-scoring game like the Pats game.

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

Your comments remind me of myself in terms of how I approach the team.

I am constantly trying to look forward and assess how good we are and where we are going, in an objective way.

 

All season I assumed we would be 1 and done in the playoffs.  Then we beat Seattle and it really surprised me.

 

Now, I'm not sure.  We have a shot at winning 1 playoff game, depending on who we play.  The NFL is all about match-ups and some possible playoff matchups might favor us, others favor the opponent.

 

I assume most posters here will want to kill you for daring suggest we are not obviously a dynasty in the making.

 

 

[mannc]

33 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

 

2018 Josh with Foster, Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Charles Clay and McKenzie -- Not very good.

 

2019 Josh with  McKenzie, Smoke Brown, and Beasley 67 catches for 778 yards, 6 td -- Better Still a ?

 

2020 Josh with Diggs, Smoke Brown, Beasley and Gabriel Davis.  Top 6 in passing yards, Top 8 in TD's, Top 8 in Comp %   MVP consideration. 

 

 

 

I’m not sure what your point is. I would acknowledge that the Bills have better WRs than they did in 2018, when that group was historically bad...Do you think that without Josh Allen this is a better than average NFL offense?

Edited November 23, 2020 by mannc

[HOUSE]

The Bills can beat any team but the key is to remain fairly healthy come playoff time.

[thurst44]

4 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

I think the reactions are due to the fact that you applied a subjective phrase ("barely") to objective statistics ("top 10").  He IS top 10 based on the statistical categories you presented.  Adding the label "barely" just seems out of place and overly subjective.

Also, if a person is 6-10 consistently in every stat, it's a good chance they average to 4th or 5th overall as you have some players who will be below the top 10 in some categories.

[BullBuchanan]

5 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

If there are that many teams in your elite tier, then it isn't elite. Right now, it's Pitt, KC, Saints in Tier 1.

The Bills are somewhere in a Tier 2 or 3 that includes those teams and adds the Ravens and Browns

Edited November 23, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[JaCrispy]

What’s held the Bills back from being elite is Beane’s drafting...other than McD’s draft and the Allen pick, the Bills’ drafts have been mediocre, at best...in fact, the only thing keeping them competitive, aside from Allen, has been their trades and FA acquisitions...but, as far as drafting, I’m a little concerned...I think we need to trade down more and trade up less...

Edited November 23, 2020 by JaCrispy

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, bobobonators said:

What are the tiers? 
 

Its subjective but you probably have something like:

 

1. Elite

2. Good

3. Average

4. Below average

5. Bad

 

id say we rank in the top part of the Good category. Realistically there are probably only 2 teams in the elite category right now - Steelers and Chiefs. 
 

then there is a log jam at the good teams consisting of probably 10 teams

 

then another log jam of average/below avg teams consisting of another 12-15

 

Finally a couple of god awful teams. 
 

So yeh technically we arent top tier no matter what scale you use, but like you said, we’re close. 

I'll buy top of the good tier.  That's right where I think they are, with nine games left to prove they're elite.  

[Putin]

21 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

What’s held the Bills back from being elite is Beane’s drafting...other than McD’s draft and the Allen pick, the Bills’ drafts have been mediocre, at best...in fact, the only thing keeping them competitive, aside from Allen, has been their trades and FA acquisitions...but, as far as drafting, I’m a little concerned...I think we need to trade down more and trade up less...

I’m pretty sure Tre was McD’s pick 

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

Unfortunately that doesn’t take into account how effective he is in other aspects which now define QB play along with passing. Most notably it leaves 6 touchdowns out of his statistical ranking. He bumps up to 6th if you use QBR instead. Also, if you use total touchdowns he’s #5 instead of #8. He has room to grow for sure, but I’m inclined to put him closer to 5 than 10 right now. The reason for that is he’s Top 10 in every passing statistic, #6 in QB rushing yardage and #3 in QB rushing TDs. We’re also 3rd in the league in (offense) 3rd down conversion percentage. The last stat is a large part how this team is winning games with close statistical margins. 

[Shaw66]

Just now, Buffalo Junction said:

Unfortunately that doesn’t take into account how effective he is in other aspects which now define QB play along with passing. Most notably it leaves 6 touchdowns out of his statistical ranking. He bumps up to 6th if you use QBR instead. Also, if you use total touchdowns he’s #5 instead of #8. He has room to grow for sure, but I’m inclined to put him closer to 5 than 10 right now. The reason for that is he’s Top 10 in every passing statistic, #6 in QB rushing yardage and #3 in QB rushing TDs. We’re also 3rd in the league in (offense) 3rd down conversion percentage. The last stat is a large part how this team is winning games with close statistical margins. 

That's fair.  But I still don't think he's the field general he's going to be come.  But that's nitpicking.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I’m not sure what your point is. I would acknowledge that the Bills have better WRs than they did in 2018, when that group was historically bad...Do you think that without Josh Allen this is a better than average NFL offense?

This is a better team with Josh and with a solid WR corps.  

All great QB’s need that guy to help them become great.  
 

Josh himself has improved season after season. 
 

W/o a comparable QB, no it’s not a better team. 
 

if the Bills are trailing in a game late I have faith Josh can get it done.  Just like he did this past Sunday.  
 

scratch the Hail Mary put it up for luck play you would see 9 instead of 8 

 

8 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 

11 Game-Winning Drives

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

This is a better team with Josh and with a solid WR corps.  

All great QB’s need that guy to help them become great.  
 

Josh himself has improved season after season. 
 

W/o a comparable QB, no it’s not a better team. 
 

if the Bills are trailing in a game late I have faith Josh can get it done.  Just like he did this past Sunday.  
 

scratch the Hail Mary put it up for luck play you would see 9 instead of 8 

 

8 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 

11 Game-Winning Drives

I’m still not seeing where you’re disagreeing with what I said—that minus JA, the Bills’ overall talent level is below average.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The talent is not 

 

AVERAGE AT BEST

Beasley is a beast

Smoke brown is a very good #2 and
Diggs the cherry 🍒 on top 

 

 

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’m still not seeing where you’re disagreeing with what I said—that minus JA, the Bills’ overall talent level is below average.

 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

The talent is not 

 

AVERAGE AT BEST

Beasley is a beast

Smoke brown is a very good #2 and
Diggs the cherry 🍒 on top 

 

 

 

That’s three players out of 22 starters.  It hardly disproves my point.