The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[foreboding]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

They have great to elite:

• Coaching
• QB
• WRs
• Secondary
• LT
• K
• P
• Kick Returner

[JPP]

If we win the AFCE (likely) and are 3rd seating (likely) than yes we are a top tier team in the league with over 10 wins (likely)......Its not like we are like one of the teams in the NFCE who will have the privelage of getting a playoff spot with a losing record.....

[QLBillsFan]

Titans got to AFC championship game. We will be elite if we make such a run. Stats are a telling sign of things to come, but NFL is about match ups and game plans. We are in the conversation to be elite. Outside of KC and perhaps the Saints I’m not sure anyone in the top 10 is elite. I think JA has the capability of making a run. If D continues to improve and we get some semblance of a run game why not Bills?

[Putin]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

But, but what about Miami ?

[Nelius]

I've seen this board go back and forth on the Ravens and Titans almost weekly, so who exactly is considered elite from the AFC? If it's only the Steelers and Chiefs then I can buy the argument that we're not a top-2 team yet, otherwise I disagree if we're making any other team elite besides those two.

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

I'm not sure I'd agree you're being objective with "barely" at number 9.  "Barely" objectively implies that there's a large chance of him falling out of the top 10 at any moment.  Are 10 and 11 so statistically close to him that you feel this is true?    Totally on board with everything else you said, great post.

 

It drives me crazy that our O-line can pass block pretty well but really hasn't done well run blocking.  If they can fix this out of the bye, I would feel a lot better about our playoff chances.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by GaryPinC

[NewEra]

You can win a super bowl and not be an “elite” team.

 

josh is easily a top 10 qB

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You can win a super bowl and not be an “elite” team.

 

josh is easily a top 10 qB

 

Absolutely.

 

The 2007 Giants backed into the playoffs as a Wild Card, and beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

[pigpen65]

1 hour ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Then why is their record horrible when they're behind at halftime, whereas when they're leading at halftime they have yet to lose a regular season game?

 That's a different question. I was talking about their point differential, not win / loss record.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

What’s great about this team is their arc of improvement. 
 

I would put money on the Bills in re-matches with the three teams that beat them (titans, chiefs, and cards). I think the more battle-tested they are, the more difficult of an out they will be.

 

you also have to consider what a weird year it’s been. We don’t really know who is elite yet. That is due to how putrid the NFC East is and most of the AFC south. So I have no idea how you evaluate the steelers, Ravens, or Browns.  

[Big Blitz]

Power Rankings (I'll do a top 14 since thats the number of playoff teams)

 

1. Chiefs

2. Steelers

3. Saints 

4. Tampa

5. Ravens (missing those 2 on the DL is a big deal)

6. Bills 

7. Colts

8. Packers 

9. Seahawks

10. Titans

11. Rams

12. Arizona

13. Browns 

14. Vegas

 

 

All of these teams have flaws. 

 

All of them can beat any of them.  We are 3-3 against 6 of them.    

 

I'm not sure there is an "elite" team that I want no part of.  The Ravens and Steelers D.  I don't want anything to do with those defensive.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Again, JMO...

 

I dont think so, even if we were 8-2. Really only because they are still too unproven, and have too many holes in the roster. For me it goes beyond record. Of course, you have to have a top record, but that is just the beginning.

 

IMO, the only elite/top-tier teams right now are KC and Pitt.

 

KC because they have the QB, the coach, the weapons, enough talent on D to get by, and a recent Super Bowl victory. I dont think there is much argument on KC.

Pitt because they have the experienced QB and coach, have enough weapons, a top D, and are always a winning franchise. I dont care that their schedule has been easy, they're still a great team all around.

 

I guess cases could be made to add Green Bay and/or the Saints, but the NFC looks weaker in general this year.

 

I'd definitely put the Bills in that category with the Packers, Saints, and Titans as "knocking on the ceiling".

 

The good news is, we still have to play the games. Which means any team could knock off any other team. We played KC well (and I think could take them in a rematch), I feel good going into the Pittsburgh game. So I like our chances in the playoffs against anyone.

 

edit: I just looked a little deeper at the Saints Defensive performance this season. If/when Brees is healthy, they are an elite team. I'll give it to them.

 

This puts it pretty well.   Bills are good, but no one's pickin em to win the Super Bowl.  The Bills are still in "prove it" mode.  

[Don Otreply]

Let’s see, there are eight divisions in the NFL...,  so..., that would say that eight teams at any time are the leaders of the NFL..., so..., it would then say that the Buffalo Bills are in the top eight in the league..., with a QB that is said to be top five or better presently..., so..., I’m saying that Shaw66 as great a poster as he absolutely is, is not takings all available data into account in his post.  😁👍 🍺 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

He IS top 10 though.  Adding your own feelings-based modifiers is bad science.

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Nelius said:

I've seen this board go back and forth on the Ravens and Titans almost weekly, so who exactly is considered elite from the AFC? If it's only the Steelers and Chiefs then I can buy the argument that we're not a top-2 team yet, otherwise I disagree if we're making any other team elite besides those two.

 

At the moment it is KC and Pittsburgh. Ravens and Titans are pretty beat up. I still think they are in a 2nd tier with the Bills though overall. Then Vegas, Cleveland, Indy, Miami are tier 3. 

 

That is my take on the AFC

[teef]

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game

Thanks @Shaw66  I was trying to put my finger on it over the week off.   I do believe the revamped OL after the bye may help the run game and we will know by playoffs if a new RB is in order.  

 

 A big 1T /NT is in order for 2021 given Star's age and the results YTD.  I don't see Harrison Philips coming back next year.  And A LB who can play the middle may be in order if Milano moves on - I would move Edmunds to WLB then.  Would let him run and chase without an OL on him.

 

The other missing link IMHO is a down the seams TE.  Watching Andrews and Kelce yesterday made me want to ask Santa for one this year.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by freddyjj

[SF Bills Fan]

I'd say the only elite team is the Chiefs. Even those guys have won some close ones to lesser teams. Then there is a grouping of 6-7 teams, including the Bills, that are in a top tier. The thing is, it seems like anybody can beat anyone this year. I'd not be surprised to see the Super Bowl feature a matchup like Tennessee vs. Rams or Bills vs. Saints or another team that gets hot in the playoffs.  Smart money says the Chiefs will be the team to beat and I'd agree for now. In the NFC, the picture is far murkier. Not sure who will emerge there.

[Mickey]

I suppose the day is not far off when we will award the win to the team that had the best statistics rather than the team that had the most points. The correlative proportional inverse relationship between points and a team being "good" lacks the asynchronous synchronicity between the integral truthiness of obscure stats and being good-ish. End the tyranny of real life experience and welcome in the new era where all games are simulated and outcomes statistically determined.

 

Blessed be the Madden.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Mickey

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Carr was extraordinary last night.   Just great.   Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs. 

 

If best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating and WRs suck won't that impact QB effectiveness?

1 minute ago, Mickey said:

Blessed be the Madden.

 

Sure some people are devil worshipers too.  Freedom of Religion and all of that.