TBN Jim Kubiak on Allen in Cardinals game

[teef]

Just now, Gene1973 said:

SpaceX

what about it makes you optimistic?  

[Buftex]

At least now I know who isn't getting invited to any Super Bowl parties.

[Captain_Quint]

4 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

SpaceX

[Mark Vader]

6 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

Bills traded the Mahomes pick, so kind of? The way Tre White has been playing, I'd say that was a huge organizational mistake. 

You are 100% confident that Mahomes would be playing the same way with the Bills instead of the Chiefs?

 

That the coaching from Andy Reid has not been a benefit to Mahomes?

[teef]

Just now, Gene1973 said:

The first entity pushing to make our species multiplanetary, something governments only gave lip service to at best, said impossible at worst.

 

Plus I plan to die on Mars so really need Starship to work.

yeah, but i bet a few of the ships blow up with passengers in them.  i also bet the idea of living on mars is far too aggressive for our generation, and we'll probably both be long dead before anyone is actually able to live on mars.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ctk232 said:

Not to nitpick Kubiak but I agree that was the only part of that play critique that I couldn't see - crap film vantage, but Knox's defender is still tight on him right before Allen works his progressions that way. The better critique would likely be Allen rushed his throw due to perceived pressure, coverage, etc., but it's hard to tell when exactly Knox's defender peeled off to cover the cross route from Brown. Sure, maybe if he rolls out instead this all goes the same way and Knox is open, but the only real critique you can make from this play is why tf is Daboll dialing up a RB go route as a decoy against one of the best man DBs in the league?

 

Beasley, Diggs, and Knox all ran lackluster routes (5yd out; 10yd post and gets chipped over middle; 5yd curl respectively) meant to keep coverage down and to the left while Brown crossed and Singletary decoyed Peterson. He practically gave Allen one option on that play and it wasn't even remotely well protected. Not to beat down on Daboll, who I'd say actually has shown improvement on his own as well, but this play was one of those head scratcher moments where he still thinks he's in NE, where RBs run the full route tree successfully. 

 

I agree that it can be questionable when a pundit pronounces that someone was open, or that the QB should have stayed in the pocket, or whatever.  A lot of times I look and see something else, like "no, he didn't leave the pocket because he felt pressure, he left it because it was one of those Mouse Davis secondary route thingamabobs and he wanted the throwing lane, just like in that Dallas play that worked or the Ravens play that didn't".   I like Kubiak because I find less that puzzles me in his interpretations than some others. 

 

Anyway, here's a screen shot just before Allen throws, you be the judge:

 

Knox, just above the "3" in 30, appears to me "open enough" for a good TE with his defender "boxed out" and able to either make the catch or defend.  But look who's on the L hashmark raising the mailbox Flag - Diggs, that's who.  And he's right.  Everyone else is manipulated by Allen's eyes and leaving him All Alone.  (Allen needed to have made up his mind at that point, but if Dawkins didn't get beat could have been a good play.)
 

If Kubiak is correct that Singletary is supposed to be running a "Go" route, that's just about the sorriest-ass excuse for a go route I've ever seen.  Singletary starts looking back and slowing down way early, so much that the NFL playbook thinks it was a pass to Singletary.  I do give Motor credit for jumping Peterson's jump and defending.

Anyway, I'm not sure it's Daboll's play design that's at fault.  I think there may be some confusion about the routes on that play because having Singletary and Brown and their respective defenders that close to each other was surely not what the design of the play intended.  I can't tell you whose mistake it was, but I don't think Singletary believes he's supposed to be running a Go route.   Either way, Allen is looking at Brown all the way and Peterson is reading his eyes and expecting the ball to come right where it does.  I don't think Singletary could have cleaned him out with a stick of dynamite.  If that was supposed to be the "Go" route, wrong guy for the job.  Which is, I suppose, on Motor because if he wants the "all purpose back" role on a team that runs a lot of 1-0 sets, he's gotta be able to do that.
 

I don't think Allen rushed his throw due to perceived pressure.  He can make better throws when pressured or rushed.  I think he just didn't keep his feet moving and set properly.  Work to do yet.

 

Anyway, we all get to "Armchair Athlete" knowing there's probably a good chance we're wrong.

 

[HOUSE]

THE BUFFALO NEWS PAYWALL, I am determined to read this

 

[Mark Vader]

2 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

No, but I think Mahomes on this Bills team makes the Bills better than they currently are. Anyone who doesn't think the same isn't being forthright IMO.

That's possible.

 

I just think that the Bills have the capability to be a championship team with Josh Allen as the QB.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

Bills losses don't hurt me like I think it hurts some of you. I never say "we" or "us" when talking about the Bills, I'm not on the team, don't contribute, etc...

 

The thread is asking if we're optimistic. I am not. It's pretty straight forward.

 

Funny, I thought this thread was discussing Jim Kubiak's excellent analysis of Josh Allen's game against the AZ Cardinals.  It's pretty straightforward.  Got any input on that topic?

 

I didn't see a soul in here asking if we're optimistic.

 

Perhaps you mean that other thread, half a page up, turn left and go up the short flight, door on the right.

[Simon]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Anyway, here's a screen shot just before Allen throws, you be the judge:

 

 But look who's on the L hashmark raising the mailbox Flag - Diggs, that's who.  And he's right.  Everyone else is manipulated by Allen's eyes and leaving him All Alone.  (Allen needed to have made up his mind at that point, but if Dawkins didn't get beat could have been a good play.)
 

 

 

 

Yup, Josh blew the read on that one.

And I bet Diggs wasn't happy about it.

 

From the Gameday thread

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

THE BUFFALO NEWS PAYWALL, I am determined to read this

 

 

Pay a freakin' buck then

 

[ctk232]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree that it can be questionable when a pundit pronounces that someone was open, or that the QB should have stayed in the pocket, or whatever.  A lot of times I look and see something else, like "no, he didn't leave the pocket because he felt pressure, he left it because it was one of those Mouse Davis secondary route thingamabobs and he wanted the throwing lane, just like in that Dallas play that worked or the Ravens play that didn't".   I like Kubiak because I find less that puzzles me in his interpretations than some others. 

 

Anyway, here's a screen shot just before Allen throws, you be the judge:

 

Knox, just above the "3" in 30, appears to me "open enough" for a good TE with his defender "boxed out" and able to either make the catch or defend.  But look who's on the L hashmark raising the mailbox Flag - Diggs, that's who.  And he's right.  Everyone else is manipulated by Allen's eyes and leaving him All Alone.  (Allen needed to have made up his mind at that point.)
 

If Kubiak is correct that Singletary is supposed to be running a "Go" route, that's just about the sorriest-ass excuse for a go route I've ever seen.  Singletary starts looking back and slowing down early, so much that the NFL playbook thinks it was a pass to Singletary.  I do give Motor credit for jumping Peterson's jump and defending.

Anyway, I'm not sure it's Daboll's play design that's at fault.  I think there may be some confusion about the routes on that play because having Singletary and Brown and their respective defenders that close to each other was surely not what the design of the play intended.  I can't tell you whose mistake it was, but I don't think Singletary believes he's supposed to be running a Go route.   Either way, Allen is looking at Brown all the way and Peterson is reading his eyes and expecting the ball to come right where it does.  I don't think Singletary could have cleaned him out with a stick of dynamite.  If that was supposed to be the "Go" route, wrong guy for the job.  Which is, I suppose, on Motor because if he wants the "all purpose back" role on a team that runs a lot of 1-0 sets, he's gotta be able to do that.
 

I don't think Allen rushed his throw due to perceived pressure.  He can make better throws when pressured or rushed.  I think he just didn't keep his feet moving and set properly.  Work to do yet.

 

Anyway, we all get to "Armchair Athlete" knowing there's probably a good chance we're wrong.

 

MUCH appreciate those wideviews - camera cut digs off just before the mailbox, but looks like Allen was passed that part of his read, albeit correctly or not. Sure, a completion to Knox seems possible there and he is at the sticks, but this wasn't the first and only time Josh preferred the deep route to the shallow route. Very easily could have been a first there, and at least a higher percentage of completion than the actual decision.

 

Again, hard to tell exactly but we can at least say the read progression moves left to right, and looks to be reading the stack defender on the left side, and deep safety. He moves on pretty quickly, but man he does miss those two flat-footed defenders with Diggs splitting them. Deep safety (maybe Baker?) has already reacted to Allen's windup in the first still, but even if he stays put there a well placed sideline ball is something Diggs should come away with every time. Just b/c it is Baker and can close with the best - he likely covers that 10-15 yds since he's shading the left hash, but not in time for a well placed throw. 

 

All this to say, hope they're seeing this in film this week - both the potential to Diggs, and the garbage decoy concept using an RB much less Singletary specifically.

Edited November 17, 2020 by ctk232

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its not about will he make a mistake, because he will as all of the greats do...its how does he bounce back and respond.  Can he have the memory of a goldfish and forget it 10 seconds later.  

 

Ok Allen's new nickname: Dory

(would work better if he was a Phish QB)

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Gene1973 said:

But he won't after the bye...

Geezus

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I find myself liking Jim Kubiak's stuff more and more this year.  I think he's gotten better. 

 

In this piece, I really like how he critiques Allen (fairly) - for example, pointing out that on a throw that was almost picked, Singletary didn't run his route with enough conviction to persuade Peterson he was an intended target who needed covered (this begs the question of why we have Singletary running a go route - if I were Peterson I'd be like "Nah, That's Eye Candy")  but also that Knox was wide open and available as a target. 

 

He is also starting to do a good job pointing out places where how other players did their job (or did not do it) affected the outcome - for example a failed screen against Blitz 0 because both Beasley and Knox whiffed on their blocks.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-cardinals-amoeba-and-tandem-cover-1-strategy-impacted-josh-allen/article_48966f00-2860-11eb-b993-6f568495b1be.html

 

Good read, does a good job pointing out the good and the bad.  It is a paywall, but worth the trial IMO. 

 

Yes, good piece. Re: the Singletary play, it looked to me like he actually could have caught the ball; he was on a clear path to beating Peterson to the ball but seemed to flat-out alligator-arm it. Not a good game for him given the PF and the dropped screen pass. Of course, his one really good play was called back because of that boneheaded block in the back by Knox.  

[WideNine]

16 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

Bills traded the Mahomes pick, so kind of? The way Tre White has been playing, I'd say that was a huge organizational mistake. 

 

And that is where? Still in the past where it will remain unchanged.

 

The Bills were one of 10 teams that passed on Mahomes. How many other teams would want a draft do-over if they could predict the future of all the players coming out and not just Mahomes, there are players scattered all over the league who would jump up to the top of a revised draft board... sounds like something someone could do for a what-if fantasy project, but meaningless as far as reality goes.

 

It is amazing to me how many times this senseless past draft critique gets dusted off and recycled to bash the Bills organization. The same Bills org that has gotten us into the playoffs year after year and currently has us in the hunt for the AFC East top seed with just about half the team limping around in bandages. 

 

 

[Simon]

6 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

 

Allen leads Wilson by 82 yards. Allen is on bye next week, Wilson is not.

 

After the bye Allen will likely be 6th or 7th in passing.

NONE OF WHICH HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH KUBIAK OR WITH JOSH ALLEN'S PERFORMANCE IN ARIZONA.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS YET?

[Simon]

Just now, Gene1973 said:

The Bills effectively chose Tre White over a generational QB. Tre is good, but Mahomes is the best QB on the planet...

NONE OF WHICH HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH KUBIAK OR WITH JOSH ALLEN'S PERFORMANCE IN ARIZONA.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS YET?

 

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Funny, I thought this thread was discussing Jim Kubiak's excellent analysis of Josh Allen's game against the AZ Cardinals.  It's pretty straightforward.  Got any input on that topic?

 

I didn't see a soul in here asking if we're optimistic.

 

Perhaps you mean that other thread, half a page up, turn left and go up the short flight, door on the right.

This board as a whole reads at roughly a 3rd grade level. Listening comprehension is roughly at a 1st grade level. 
 

I enjoy Kubiak... really neutral POV IMO. I personally like Cover1 because it’s free to watch and I learn better with visual aides and listening than I do reading. I think Cover1 is a really good source but tend to sugar coat some things here and there... Kubiak, like I said is neutral. 
 

It’s amazing the sources there are publicly available. You’d be surprised at how many pro teams keep tabs on these guys internally and learn from their breakdowns. We do it all the time... amazing free source for teams to learn from... even if they’re not as polished as the breakdown by the team themselves. 

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, Gene1973 said:

Ok, guess I'll leave this thread... Sorry. 

That would be best.  Maybe take a few days off too.