Joshs development has been amazing

[Doc]

I'm impressed and astonished.  I don't care that he was picked 7th overall.  From 1999-2019, 61 QBs have been taken in the 1st round  Out of those, 31 have been outright busts and (arguably) about 9 (15%) have played around Josh's current level.

[Nihilarian]

On 11/16/2020 at 10:55 PM, NewEra said:

Who said they were astonished?

 

Weren’t you the one that said the most overrated resource is a 1st rd pick.  It’s a roll of the dice.  Even at the #7

There is one so called draft expert poster here that rated Allen a third round pick because of his accuracy issues. So many Bills fans here were on the Josh Rosen bandwagon before the draft and quite frankly many were "astonished" when the Bills selected Allen with that #7. 

 

In fact, the days leading up to that 2018 draft so many fans here were saying we should trade "the farm" to the NY Giants in order to move up to #2 to draft Rosen. One of our heralded mega posters stated he was "gut punched" by the Allen selection.  

 

So many Bills fans here likened Allen to Kyle Boller and stated he will never be any good because nobody fixes their completion percentage! Some of us here put up numerous instances of players fixing their completion percentage and so many here saying, nope a bum forever. Even after his first NFL season with all the issues to the Buffalo offense so many Bills fans here were still complaining the Bills made the wrong choice.

 

Thankfully, the Buffalo FO built a solid team around Josh so he could develop properly. Some of the very best receivers in the NFL in Diggs, Beasley, Brown. Most all Bills fans now see that tremendous heart, drive to win instilled in Josh Allen and have come to love him. Also, for his blue collar work ethic. No other QB drafted in the last five years even compares to Allen as a Buffalo Bill IMHO. Not Mahomes, not Watson, not Murray, not Prescott. Allen is the perfect QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

Also, thankfully, the Bills FO in Beane, McD saw the talent in Allen ahead of those other NFL teams in 2018 and drafted the right guy. 

 

 

 

P.S. I have been wrong too, and that is with Bills OC Brian Daboll. Although, I'm still not entirely sold on his game planning, play calling at times. Plus, the Bills run game should be more of a priority going into the cold weather and at times its like Buffalo only uses it as a diversion at times. That with the QB the leading rusher in several games this season. Besides Allen running, the Bills only called 11 RB runs against Arizona. Allen with 49 passing attempts. The offense should be much more balanced. 

 

Nonetheless, there is no denying Allen has developed into that so much sought after franchise QB that this team has been looking for since Jim Kelly and the 90's.  Daboll has hand a hand in that.

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

for a guy with a yearly Josh Stats tracker .... 

 

Why hasn't @transplantbillsfan posted in this thread?

[Cruiserplayer]

Imagine how Ryan Gates feels now. Probably mildly impressed.

[78thealltimegreat]

4 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

There is one so called draft expert poster here that rated Allen a third round pick because of his accuracy issues. So many Bills fans here were on the Josh Rosen bandwagon before the draft and quite frankly many were "astonished" when the Bills selected Allen with that #7. 

 

In fact, the days leading up to that 2018 draft so many fans here were saying we should trade "the farm" to the NY Giants in order to move up to #2 to draft Rosen. One of our heralded mega posters stated he was "gut punched" by the Allen selection.  

 

So many Bills fans here likened Allen to Kyle Boller and stated he will never be any good because nobody fixes their completion percentage! Some of us here put up numerous instances of players fixing their completion percentage and so many here saying, nope a bum forever. Even after his first NFL season with all the issues to the Buffalo offense so many Bills fans here were still complaining the Bills made the wrong choice.

 

Thankfully, the Buffalo FO built a solid team around Josh so he could develop properly. Some of the very best receivers in the NFL in Diggs, Beasley, Brown. Most all Bills fans now see that tremendous heart, drive to win instilled in Josh Allen and have come to love him. Also, for his blue collar work ethic. No other QB drafted in the last five years even compares to Allen as a Buffalo Bill IMHO. Not Mahomes, not Watson, not Murray, not Prescott. Allen is the perfect QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

Also, thankfully, the Bills FO in Beane, McD saw the talent in Allen ahead of those other NFL teams in 2018 and drafted the right guy. 

 

 

 

P.S. I have been wrong too, and that is with Bills OC Brian Daboll. Although, I'm still not entirely sold on his game planning, play calling at times. Plus, the Bills run game should be more of a priority going into the cold weather and at times its like Buffalo only uses it as a diversion at times. That with the QB the leading rusher in several games this season. Besides Allen running, the Bills only called 11 RB runs against Arizona. Allen with 49 passing attempts. The offense should be much more balanced. 

 

Nonetheless, there is no denying Allen has developed into that so much sought after franchise QB that this team has been looking for since Jim Kelly and the 90's.  Daboll has hand a hand in that.

 

 

 

One thing I always go back to in his rookie year after like two practices Shady McCoy who has never been one to not say what he thinks was asked what he thought of Josh...Shady smiled and said “You can tell he’s special”....indeed Shady indeed 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

for a guy with a yearly Josh Stats tracker .... 

 

Why hasn't @transplantbillsfan posted in this thread?

And several others...

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, Doc said:

I'm impressed and astonished.  I don't care that he was picked 7th overall.  From 1999-2019, 61 QBs have been taken in the 1st round  Out of those, 31 have been outright busts and (arguably) about 9 (15%) have played around Josh's current level.

 

 

Again....less than half of first rounders at any position play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

And all of those that do get their option picked up aren't necessarily playing anywhere near expecation......some of them(like David Njoku for instance) just had their option picked up in the hope that they would play better.........it's only guaranteed for injury.

 

The bottom line is that the majority of 1st rounders at any position fail to make the anticipated impact..........maybe 25%-30% of them pan out as hoped.

 

That's still a good % compared to subsequent rounds........so it's far from random.

 

But if the odds of getting a franchise QB in round 1 is 15% and a stud at another position is only 25%-30%.........it's inexcusable to be passing on QB's........and not that much more surprising when they turn into stars at their position.

Edited November 19, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

They are similar words, but with varying magnitudes... just like based on the last few seasons, we expected Josh should be hopefully good this year but the leading passer in the nfl nearly 70% 10 games in, 100+ passer rating, gaudy YPA??? That’s great. Who jumps ten points in completion percentage YoY? 
 

so I guess to your point since Josh has been great this season not just good. It’s more than impressive.. I wish there were a word to convey that. I’ll go with astonishing 

 

You go with whatever suits you.
 

I tend to firm up my expectations around things I have a deep and up close understanding of or are actively influencing.  
 

Absent one of those two things expectation is just a naive version of expectation called  hope. 

 

The entire debate is about magnitude.......I don't know anyone who is just disappointed in Josh Allen to this point.

 

If you trust your own evaluation of a player.........as many of us who follow college football and the draft year round do.........you can make your own assessment.....and if you liked Allen a lot at the time you wouldn't be astonished by his progress now.

 

Or if you just trust McBeane's judgement........then all the work to get to #7 overall to take Allen should have created an expectation that he would be a stud.  

 

If you are neither of those type of fans then I can certainly understand you being astonished or shocked or whatever the adjectives...........when you come from a position of no expectation and no personal opinion....... it's easy to be swayed by equally uniformed opinions in the media...........and success probably then feels like it came from nowhere.

 

I'm not really that way with any of the sports I follow closely..........I form my own opinions on players or if I can't see them I at least assign an expectation to them based on the relative value of the chips it took to add them.

 

Personally,  my comp for Allen the past 3 years has been John Elway..........but he may be morphing into a different type of player than that.........either way,  I had a HOF ceiling on the guy so I guess I am just more pleased at year 3 than astonished. 

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm just here to see the breakdown between "astonished" and "Impressed"

 

 

Yeah I tell employees or contractors/accountants/attorneys etc. that I am impressed by their work all of the time..........I can't think of one such instance where either party would find "astonished" as an appropriate synonym.

 

"Your work on that safety audit was astonishing."  "Your opening statement was very astonishing."

 

I think it would be simultaneously less appreciated and more expensive to go the "astonished" route.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm just here to see the breakdown between "astonished" and "Impressed"

I know, I’ve been trolled.... 😔  I’m surprised the thread title was permitted by the adjective  appropriations committee. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Doc]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Again....less than half of first rounders at any position play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

And all of those that do get their option picked up aren't necessarily playing anywhere near expecation......some of them(like David Njoku for instance) just had their option picked up in the hope that they would play better.........it's only guaranteed for injury.

 

The bottom line is that the majority of 1st rounders at any position fail to make the anticipated impact..........maybe 25%-30% of them pan out as hoped.

 

That's still a good % compared to subsequent rounds........so it's far from random.

 

But if the odds of getting a franchise QB in round 1 is 15% and a stud at another position is only 25%-30%.........it's inexcusable to be passing on QB's........and not that much more surprising when they turn into stars at their position.

 

That the 1st round is the best round in which to find players, including franchise QBs, isn't news and wasn't what I was disputing: it was your "well, he was a first rounder, he should be a franchise QB" sentiment.  About a 1 in 7 chance aren't very good odds.  Add to that a QB who never eclipsed 60% passing in college or his first 2 years in the NFL...

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

That the 1st round is the best round in which to find players, including franchise QBs, isn't news and wasn't what I was disputing: it was your "well, he was a first rounder, he should be a franchise QB" sentiment.  About a 1 in 7 chance aren't very good odds.  Add to that a QB who never eclipsed 60% passing in college or his first 2 years in the NFL...

 

 

FWIW.......we already crossed that "15%" bridge before you jumped in to argue.    Here is an excerpt from the 6th post in this thread:

 

"QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing  was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts."

 

 

As for those odds........a general 15% chance of getting an actual stud franchise QB?

 

Those odds ain't that bad when the chance of getting just a star player at any position is only like 1 in 4.

 

So yes.........based on statistical probability.......fans should anticipate most of their first round picks to be a disappointment on some level.

 

[Chandler#81]

On 11/16/2020 at 11:25 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) The OP.    The literal definition of "amazing" is "to be filled with astonishment".  

 

2) I've said that if you aren't using it on a QB.........a first round pick is the most overrated personnel chip.

 

Fans always EXPECT a first round pick to become a star...........but less than half play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing  was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts.

Yes! Legendary names like Johnny Green, JP Losman, EJ Manuel account for the 85%. Jimbo was a 1st Rounder, but he was our 2nd #1 that year. As for Allen’s 1st Round class, Mayfield & Darnold went before him, with Wrong Josh & Lamar. Jackson has been terrific but odd. We nabbed the best in that crap shoot.

[machine gun kelly]

Chandman, agreed.  Three years later Allen is the best QB from that class.  Mayfield is progressing and Lamar has improved, but they are not on Allen’s level.  Allen has proven this year he is a franchise Qb, and no one is perfect.  I could care less what the talking heads say as they change like the wind.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Chandman, agreed.  Three years later Allen is the best QB from that class.  Mayfield is progressing and Lamar has improved, but they are not on Allen’s level.  Allen has proven this year he is a franchise Qb, and no one is perfect.  I could care less what the talking heads say as they change like the wind.

 

That they do in a week to week league.  

 

They flow with the HOT stories.  

 

or seek controversy to get clicks 

 

[PrimeTime101]

On 11/16/2020 at 7:43 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's been fun and it's impressive how much work Allen has put in........ but we shouldn't be astonished by a QB who was picked 7th overall playing at a high level in year 3.

Hold on.... im astonished by your comment... how many early draft picks have failed top 10 QB?

 

should I list?

[LABILLBACKER]

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Edited November 21, 2020 by LABILLBACKER

[Putin]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Cake walk 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Putin

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 hours ago, Putin said:

Cake walk 

thats Teef’s TM 

😝 

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

what’s he at? 21.  

 

6 games 2 TD per game 

 

it will be close. 
 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Funny how hard some the doubters go to extremes to praise Josh now that he’s a proven commodity. 
 

yeah, you know who you are