Mango Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 9:17 PM, dave mcbride said: On the replay, the ball had actually hit the ground before he made the hit. Tough but fair call. Stupid play by singletary. I thought the same thing. It was well after the play. Dude was pulling up. DS didn't just bump him, he dropped his shoulder and his head and popped him a little. Not flagrant, but not the worst call by any stretch. 13 hours ago, The Poojer said: I don't read any threads post game until i see your and Rockpile's game recaps. I came away from the game happier for the final Josh Allen and the Offense drive than i was upset by that miraculous play...Keep up the good work Virgil!!!! Agreed here. I will check briefly after a game to see if there is anything I missed that was glaring. But otherwise this is my go to post game read. It was the same when Bill did his write ups. You have taken the torch more than admirably. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 7:23 PM, Virgil said: 1 - The Miracle - If I told you we were up by 4 in a game with less than a minute left and that a throw was going to be heaved into the endzone with 3 of our best defenders in coverage, would you take those odds? Yes, any normal person would. Hopkins made an amazing catch that doesn't happen 9 times out of 10. Is it okay to be pissed off, dumbfounded, worried about that feeling of dread watching highlights for the next two weeks...yes. Football happens. Big plays happen. Fluke plays happen. It sucks, yes. But we are still 7-3 going into the bye and Josh walked off the field a winner. Have some perspective before you call for the heads of coaches and players. I don't know how they get these numbers, but according to this: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/hail-murray-by-the-numbers-separation-air-yards-catch-probability/article_f09de16a-281f-11eb-b1d8-ebcea1fb58ce.html 1) NextGen says the pass had a 16.9% completion probability, which seems very high to me 2) after the Diggs TD reception with 34 seconds left the Bills only had a 6% probability of winning, which seems very low to me Don't shoot me, I'm only bringing in the TBN-reported data from NextGen Stats. And it seems very strange to me. 1
Mango Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, Agent 91 said: I honestly don't think they have a ton of confidence to get outside with these backs. I remember watching the all 22 of the Chiefs game and it just seemd like, especially Singletary, lacked the burst to hit creases outside the tackle. Moss was still very green but I remember a few down blocks by Diggs and maybe Kroft? But Singletary seemed to cut inside as opposed to stretching it wide. Will be interesting to see if they don't add speed to that grouping. They need to add a speedier back, which is fine. I am a little annoyed that we have used 2 3rds and still need to go find ANOTHER guy...and what, split carries 3 ways now? Also, I cannot believe we still don't have a serious answer as to why Yeldon is not allowed to play on Sundays. If I were a beat reporter, I would ask every single presser. Not that Yeldon is a speedster, but he has been productive for us when literally nobody has been.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Mango said: They need to add a speedier back, which is fine. I am a little annoyed that we have used 2 3rds and still need to go find ANOTHER guy...and what, split carries 3 ways now? Also, I cannot believe we still don't have a serious answer as to why Yeldon is not allowed to play on Sundays. If I were a beat reporter, I would ask every single presser. Not that Yeldon is a speedster, but he has been productive for us when literally nobody has been. I am pretty frustrated with our press corps as a whole right now. I think there are fair and reasonable questions to ask that just aren't getting asked. The format - where one reporter's zoom goes live and he gets to ramble through a forest of thoughts to reach a question that often presumes assumptions - may be crowding out clear and cutting questions from those reporters that do have their act together and their questions in mind. Example: Daboll's presser did not include ANY questions about the coverage that Josh misread to the tune of 2 INTs, about the decision to call a time out and leave more time on the clock before the Bills final score, your question above about why Yeldon has been inactive, it's late but I know I could think of a few more earlier 1
Mango Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know how they get these numbers, but according to this: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/hail-murray-by-the-numbers-separation-air-yards-catch-probability/article_f09de16a-281f-11eb-b1d8-ebcea1fb58ce.html 1) NextGen says the pass had a 16.9% completion probability, which seems very high to me 2) after the Diggs TD reception with 34 seconds left the Bills only had a 6% probability of winning, which seems very low to me Don't shoot me, I'm only bringing in the TBN-reported data from NextGen Stats. And it seems very strange to me. I saw that too. They dropped a similar stat during the game that Allen had a 67% chance of scoring (or whatever) once he caught the ball. I was like "How in the hell do you calculate that?". I am also not going to hate on Tre too bad on that last play. He was in a good position at the end of the game, even though he got out hopped. Poyer crushing him midair/mid catch basically ruined any chances of a PBU. Maybe he gets breaks it up (his hands were right there!) maybe he doesn't. But he was in the best spot to do so and Poyer came in and did the opposite to help. What a bummer, I won't hate on it too bad because Poyer is having an all pro year. Chris Simms on his Sunday wrap up showed the NextGen play break down. Siran Neal sticks with Fitz way too long even though Edmunds has decent coverage. Trey played safe and over top and did fine. Not sure why they didn't use Neal at the line on Hopkins to knock him off the route a little? He could have pressed him off the line and released him to Tre and still covered Fitz on the crosser. If he does that, I am not sure Kyler tries to roll left to reset. Hell, I am not sure he can at that point. Hopkins would have been a bit short on the route and I am not sure Kyler would have had the time to make that throw in the endzone at that point. Keyshawn today basically said you just rip Hopkins to the ground and dare the ref to call PI. He said they never will in that situation so just mug him. haha Edited November 17, 2020 by Mango Add on- Press coverage
Agent 91 Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 53 minutes ago, Mango said: They need to add a speedier back, which is fine. I am a little annoyed that we have used 2 3rds and still need to go find ANOTHER guy...and what, split carries 3 ways now? Also, I cannot believe we still don't have a serious answer as to why Yeldon is not allowed to play on Sundays. If I were a beat reporter, I would ask every single presser. Not that Yeldon is a speedster, but he has been productive for us when literally nobody has been. Mango if you knew my friends, lol. They have all but disallowed me from talking about the gross negligence there. I feel like I am just crusading. To draft the same guy 2 years in a row is agregious. I do like moss but he needs a complimentary piece. 2
Seasons1992 Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 @Virgil, As the ball came down and was caught, I quietly told my kid next to me, "Oh, they just lost the game." I went outside in the cold dark, and sat alone on the front steps. I thought of what you may be thinking at that particular moment. BBFS is also strong in this one. I stayed away yesterday because it was simply too much to believe, but my positive is that it wasn't a playoff game! I'll have to go with that. Great write-up. 1 1
Big Turk Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know how they get these numbers, but according to this: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/hail-murray-by-the-numbers-separation-air-yards-catch-probability/article_f09de16a-281f-11eb-b1d8-ebcea1fb58ce.html 1) NextGen says the pass had a 16.9% completion probability, which seems very high to me 2) after the Diggs TD reception with 34 seconds left the Bills only had a 6% probability of winning, which seems very low to me Don't shoot me, I'm only bringing in the TBN-reported data from NextGen Stats. And it seems very strange to me. Pretty sure they meant a 6% chance of losing...I actually saw the Bills chances of winnings were as high as 96.9% by some sites measurements.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Pretty sure they meant a 6% chance of losing...I actually saw the Bills chances of winnings were as high as 96.9% by some sites measurements. This would make a lot more sense. 94% chance of winning then, also consistent with your other sites. TBN editor @JoshBarnett is a member and occasional poster here (where to his credit he has stood fast and taken Some Slammin at times) so I just pinged him to raise your point.
JoshBarnett Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 Should say Cardinals had a 6% change of winning or Bills had a 94% of winning, depending on your perspective. That has been fixed. Thanks. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, JoshBarnett said: Should say Cardinals had a 6% change of winning or Bills had a 94% of winning, depending on your perspective. That has been fixed. Thanks. Thanks for the prompt ping-back, Josh!
HeHateMe Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 8:32 PM, BillsFan130 said: Still a big concern to me is the 3rd quarters. Once again we got out scored 17-7, and that’s even getting a turnover on defence and starting off with the ball in the 2nd half. Inexcusable... What happens in the locker room every week? 1
LeGOATski Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, HeHateMe said: Inexcusable... What happens in the locker room every week? Maybe part of it is the Bills usually winning at halftime, so its the other team making adjustments first. That's certainly not all of it, though. How much blame is on the coaches vs the players? They'd be winning games more handily if they just kept their foot on the gas.
DrDawkinstein Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: Maybe part of it is the Bills usually winning at halftime, so its the other team making adjustments first. That's certainly not all of it, though. How much blame is on the coaches vs the players? They'd be winning games more handily if they just kept their foot on the gas. This is the tough part for me as well. Folks ask "Why isnt McD making adjustments at halftime??", and I'm over here thinking "We are dominating teams in the 1st half. Why would he change what is working?" Maybe it takes the 3rd quarter to understand how the other team is adjusting, and then by the time we counter-adjust it's already the 4th quarter. I want to see better 3rd Quarter performances as well, dont get me wrong. Just not sure how we get there.
Gugny Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said: This is the tough part for me as well. Folks ask "Why isnt McD making adjustments at halftime??", and I'm over here thinking "We are dominating teams in the 1st half. Why would he change what is working?" Maybe it takes the 3rd quarter to understand how the other team is adjusting, and then by the time we counter-adjust it's already the 4th quarter. I want to see better 3rd Quarter performances as well, dont get me wrong. Just not sure how we get there. To me, it seems to be about preparedness. I am all about "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." But the flip side of that is that if the other team adjusts, be prepared to immediately adjust accordingly. We cannot continue to rely on hanging onto big leads that become smaller, or on 4th quarter comebacks. We are (7-3) and our point differential is .7. The only team with a winning record and a lower point differential is Cleveland (6-3) with a p.d. of -3.1. Every other team below .7 (17 teams) has a losing record. It's just not sustainable and these games are close because of crappy third quarters. 2
LABILLBACKER Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know how they get these numbers, but according to this: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/hail-murray-by-the-numbers-separation-air-yards-catch-probability/article_f09de16a-281f-11eb-b1d8-ebcea1fb58ce.html 1) NextGen says the pass had a 16.9% completion probability, which seems very high to me 2) after the Diggs TD reception with 34 seconds left the Cardinals only had a 6% probability of winning, which seems very low to me Don't shoot me, I'm only bringing in the TBN-reported data from NextGen Stats. [Edited to correct] Hopkins...1-2 inches taller than our 3 dbs at 6-1 80 inch wingspan 10.1 hands 36 inch vertical ....unless you push him off his spot I'm surprised it wasn't 20% probability. He's going to Moss you every time unless you stick some taller players back there. Most NFL people blame the Bills for Not chucking Hopkins at the LOS. They let him run free and get settled comfortably in the EZ. It was a freak play but if we had a little faster DE then Addison the play would be moot. And the whole country wouldn't be slobbering all over him this week. We basically wrote his mvp narrative.
BearNorth Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 So Tremaine is Bigger AND faster than Hopkins, they weren't going to win with a run over his position, why didn't they have him spy Hopkins? Just wondering?
BillsMafia13 Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 What do we have to do to get a good punter? I’m so sick of seeing borjo out there
Einstein's Dog Posted November 17, 2020 Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 9:01 PM, ProcessTruster said: I'll take the split of the Seahawks and Cards games and move on. Josh and the whole team looked pretty bad today and still almost stole the game. Bring on the bye week. Finally. That team needs it. New England. People here have discounted that game all along. Huge, huge win. Biggest win of the year and it was extremely tight. People here have discounted the significance of that win all along. Discarding it like NE doesn't have talent. New England isn't dog meat. Just beat Baltimore. Lost to Seattle at the goal line, and of course the tight loss to the Bills.
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