Bills and Steelers historically "lucky" according to FiveThirtyEight article

[CSBill]

It's probably been said in the here, but who has time to data mine a thread . . .

 

"Sometimes, its better to be lucky than good;" because, "you are what your record says you are."

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 11/13/2020 at 4:53 PM, Greg S said:

Can we also say the Patriots were lucky these past 20 years or is that not allowed?

 

On 11/13/2020 at 9:55 PM, Limeaid said:

 

NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts.

Well, actually you can say it, but it will cost you two conditional draft picks to New England.

[Albany,n.y.]

The Steelers & Bills are lucky: Both teams had franchise QBs fall in their laps. 

 

Pittsburgh had a bad season and got lucky the year they drafted Roethlisberger because Bills GM Tom Donahoe wanted him but could not trade up ahead of Pittsburgh.  My guess is he just wasn't offering enough.  When it comes to getting the QB you want, a smart GM does whatever it takes & Doesn't worry about draft value formulas.  Donahoe failed, much to the delight of his former team.  

 

The Bills man all along was Josh Allen.  They got lucky when the Giants went RB at #2 in the 2018 draft.  That made it possible for the Jets to draft Darnold.  If the Giants draft Darnold, the Jets draft one of the 2 Joshs.  Maybe they pick Rosen, but we'll never know.  The Jets had to go QB that draft after the trade up.  So the Bills get doubly lucky & shoot for pick 7 after a deal with Denver falls through at pick 5 because they wanted Chubb.  They're also lucky that John Elway apparently wants no part of Josh Allen. Because Elway chooses Chubb over the trade, the Bills get to keep their other #1, which would have been part of the Denver trade.  While they get lucky Josh falls down to 7, they also are lucky because they are prepared.  The other team that wanted Josh was Arizona.  Fortunately due to Beane's trading of Sammy Watkins and then trading up to 12 with the Glenn trade, the Bills are much better prepared to trade up to 7 than Arizona whose pick after the Glenn trade is 3 picks lower than the Bills pick and they have only one 2nd round pick.  .