Bills and Steelers historically "lucky" according to FiveThirtyEight article

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, Greg S said:

Can we also say the Patriots were lucky cheating these past 20 years or is that not allowed?

 

NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Get the fluck out of here!!!🤮

[Just in Atlanta]

Good teams win close football games. The Steelers for years have thrived off close wins. 

[Just Joshin']

What happens when Buffalo and Pittsburgh play?  Can they both be lucky?

[aristocrat]

What do they say about injuries and such? If Josh goes out Sunday and repeats last sundays numbers it’s clear the 4 games with the brace skewed their numbers.  

[ganesh]

5 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

What happens when Buffalo and Pittsburgh play?  Can they both be lucky?

we could have a tie

[BillsFan692]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

What do they say about injuries and such? If Josh goes out Sunday and repeats last sundays numbers it’s clear the 4 games with the brace skewed their numbers.  

Sample size.

 

9 games isnt enough 

[Cruiserplayer]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

we could have a tie

So then only the Steelers would be lucky.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The flaw is the assumption that the final point differential correlates well with how competitive the game was played.  I'd venture to say that the Bills spent very little time behind in their 7 wins.  

 

I suspect  the amount of time a team spends leading vs trailing in their games over the course of their season has a higher correlation to win% than the aggregate point differential and any deviations from that expectation would be more indicative of "luck."

 

 

[eball]

It’s a metric based upon point differential so it makes sense.  What the metric doesn’t factor is how the point differential is impacted by garbage time scores or close games that get away in the 4th quarter.  It’s basically saying “if the point differential is close you’re probably winning some and losing some” so a 7-2 and 8-0 team with close differentials are “lucky.”

[prissythecat]

We don’t need to go to 538:site when we already have one of their writers here.  He uses advanced stats and metrics according to his posts.

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I have to admit that I didn’t read the article but on it’s face this is one of the dumbest things I’ve read. How in the world does winning close games make you lucky? If you have a dominate defense and a mediocre offense your games are going to be low scoring and by definition then the margin of victory will of course be small...but that doesn’t make you lucky. And if you win all of your games but lose two in blowouts that similarly brings down your overall margin of victory. It has ZERO correlation to how well you played in your wins. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by SoCal Deek

[Don Otreply]

Really? Historically unlucky would be more on point... 😁

Go Bills!!!

 

 

 

[njbuff]

Do they realize that in 5 of these games that the opposition has scored garbage time TD's to really skew the point differential?

 

That is also rare in the NFL.

[billspro]

We have actually been pretty unlucky with forcing turnovers. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them come in bunches again for the next few games. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts.

Haha Peyton manning did it on a mnf broadcast 🤣 'certain teams in the northeast dont cut off communications to the quarterback at 15 seconds'

Statistical projections like these seem to be least accurate in football compared to other sports that are more about individual stats...theres such drastically different gameplans every week that its a bit of a stretch to assume the teams play in future games based on how they've performed so far

[HOUSE]

Every win the Bills ever had was lucky. It comes with being a Bills fan 

 

Coaches run the wrong defense, QBs fumble on their final drive. Key players on the opposing team are hurt....etc.

 

Tomorrow it will be a slippery field

 

Its all luck

 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by HOUSE

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/13/2020 at 4:03 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Ours is actually flawed because we've dominated basically every game we won but let teams back in the game. 

If you delete the Titans disaster and they are what +32

[Saxum]

26 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

If you delete the Titans disaster and they are what +32

 

Even better if Titans forfeit as they should have which would have made difference against Kansas City.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Even better if Titans forfeit as they should have which would have made difference against Kansas City.

yeah there is that too. It’s what makes that differential metric dumb where an anomalous blowout either Way skews the attempted generalization