Scouting The Arizona Cardinals

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

What a win this past Sunday. To beat that Seahawks team with that consensus league MVP at QB and a defense that got significant reinforcements in Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams the way that we did was incredible to watch. Roberts set the tone with his special return ability, Josh cooked (albeit with a heavy heart), and the defense took the ball away four times and limited Russ to the extend that it's even possible. One of the most complete wins in a while and showed how balanced and complete this team CAN be.

 

Looking ahead, we're on the road against another tough NFC West opponent, the Arizona Cardinals. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Cardinals' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

October 20th- Week 6 Win AT Dallas (the Cowboys had the 24th ranked offense, 28th ranked defense, and 25th ranked special teams after Week 6, current record: 2-7) by a score of 38-10:

• Kyler Murray- 9/24 (yikes) for 188 yards with 3 total TDs and 74 rushing yards. Executed a QB draw for 13 yards on their opening drive, but then missed a deep throw to Isabella by miles and had to punt. Arizona drew up a bunch of designed runs for Murray throughout the game (usually to the left, more on this below). Hit on a beautiful deep pass to the right side to Kirk for an 80 yard TD. This passing TD and most of Murray's better completions tended to come from play action. Murray is very smart about not taking huge hits and often slides or goes out of bounds. Kept the ball on a second RPO near the goal line and scored a short TD running to the left. He's so quick to pull the ball down and run that I think he leaves some bigger plays on the field, but it's so important to play contain and keep a spy on him. Only sacked once. 
• Cards Running Game- Kenyan Drake (164 yards) scored from the one yard line on an RPO to take a 14-0 lead in the 2nd quarter and had some big runs in the second half once the Cowboys defense was gassed including a 69 yard TD run in garbage time. Chase Edmonds only had 5 carries.
• DeAndre Hopkins- Just 2 catches for 73 yards. Kept mostly quiet, but caught a short crossing route in the 4th and took it nearly 60 yards after the catch. 
• Christian Kirk- scored on a TD on a jet sweep and then caught a bomb from Murray for a second TD in the first half, showcasing the speed that made him such a promising draft pick. 
• Larry Fitzgerald- one of the greats. Not the most athletic at this point in his career, but he's so reliable and smart. Often targeted on 3rd down to keep drives moving. 
• Cards Run Defense- Gashed for some fairly long runs early by Elliott and Pollard, but ultimately held them to a combined 22 carries for 80 yards (game script forced Dallas to abandon the run game). I didn't see many TFLs or wins behind the LoS by Arizona's front seven. Old friend Jordan Phillips forced Elliott's second fumble of the day on a fairly routine inside run. 
• Cards Pass Defense- Arizona got a bit lucky here facing Andy Dalton in his first week replacing Dak. Nearly sacked Dalton for a safety on the Cowboys first possession. Dallas was very successful running screens to their WRs and TEs from what I saw. Budda Baker forced a fumble from Elliott to end a promising Cowboys drive late in the first quarter and then had a big sack on a blitz later in the half. Baker is one of the more underrated players in the league and always seems to be around the ball. He's used a bit like Jamal Adams in the sense that they line him up in a wide variety of roles. CeeDee Lamb fell down on a route on Dallas' first drive in the 3rd which led to a Dre Kirkpatrick INT (the contact that made Lamb fall could have been PI). Baker picked off Dalton after reading his eyes and jumping the route to kill a Cowboys red zone opportunity late in the game. Kevin Peterson (not to be confused with Patrick) appears to be the weak link in that secondary and gave up the only Cowboys TD. Sacked Dalton 3 times in total. 
• Miscellaneous- Saw someone else on the board mention this prior to this exercise and noticed the same thing...whenever Murray shifts to the left side of the field, he stops thinking about throwing the ball and starts to run. Arizona did a good job of taking the ball away in the first half to limit Dallas' scoring opportunities and scored TDs after both Elliott fumbles. Michael Gallup dropped a fairly easy TD just before HT that could have made this more of a contest. Mike McCarthy continued to do Mike McCarthy things kicking a FG down 28-3 with 5 min left in the 3rd which they missed. The Cowboys defense looked so tired and appeared to give up in the second half IMO.

 

 

October 26th- Week 7 OT Win at Home vs Seattle (the Seahawks had the 2nd ranked offense, 28th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams after Week 7, current record: 6-2) by a score of 37-34:

• Kyler Murray- 34/48 for 360 yards, 4 total TDs, and 1 INT. Showed amazing ability to avoid multiple sacks on 3rd down (and even a near safety) and make positive plays for his team. Uncorked a beautiful 35 yard TD pass to Hopkins in the 1st quarter. Arizona and Murray were a bit lucky to miss Dunlap and Jamal Adams as I think they would have made a big impact in this game (Murray hasn't been under hardly any pressure in this game or the Dallas game). Unable to score any points and turned the ball over on downs after the Budda Baker INT return to the Seattle 5 yard line. Scored on a weaving TD run from 10 yards out to make it a three point deficit in the 3rd. Threw a poor INT in the 4th where the ball really sailed on him. Was not sacked in this game. 
• Cards Running Game- Kyler led the team in rushing with 67 yards. The RBs didn't make too many plays in regulation, but Chase Edmonds ripped off a massive 30 yard run in OT around the right side to put the Cardinals in field goal range. Edmonds also contributed with 7 catches for 87 yards.
• DeAndre Hopkins- 10 catches for 103 yards and a nice 35+ yard TD. Lost a fumble in the second (seems like he loses the ball a lot). Tackled for losses on both his WR screens.
• Christian Kirk- caught a wide open TD on a well-designed mesh concept just before halftime and had a second TD with the game on the line on a nicely run curl route. He's really emerged this year and Kyler seems to look his way in the red zone. 
• Larry Fitzgerald- 8 catches for 62 yards. Kyler leans on him whenever he needs a big first down. Made a good grab to set up the game-winning FG. 
• Cards Run Defense- Gave up two long Russell Wilson runs for 50+ yards and then a 25 yard Carlos Hyde TD late in the second quarter. Arizona seems stout enough up the middle, but it appeared to me that they are vulnerable to off tackle runs and RPOs. The Cardinals really struggled to play with contain and there were huge holes for Russ to run all game (ended up with 6 rushes for 84 yards and he missed a few opportunities to pick up an easy 10-15 yards on a few more plays IMO). The Seahawks lost Chris Carson for most of this game due to injury. 
• Cards Pass Defense- Gave up 388 yards and 3 TDs to Russell Wilson. Tough matchup but thought they really struggled in coverage especially trying to contain Tyler Lockett who drew Patrick Peterson in coverage a lot and roasted him a number of times. Lockett had 15 catches for 200 yards (!!!!!) and all 3 TDs (could this be a good sign for our deep speed threat John Brown?). Arizona did a great job holding Metcalf to 2 catches, but huge damage was done elsewhere. Budda Baker did pick off Wilson on a terrible lofted throw near the Cardinals goal line (Russ clearly didn't see him) which led to the now infamous Metcalf chase down and resulting memes and then Patrick Peterson picked off a weird overthrow from Wilson in the 4th on what looked like a possible miscommunication with DK. Seattle's TEs (Dissly and Hollister) were able to make a number of plays in this game as well. Reddick and Byron Murphy Jr both had huge sacks in OT that forced Seattle to punt (the only two sacks for the Cards but they came at a significant time). It was a bit of a gift, but Isaiah Simmons made a nice play in coverage to pick off Russ in OT (first time I've heard his name or noticed him in two games so far which is surprising...I thought there was a good chance he could be DROY given how athletic and versatile he was for Clemson). 
• Miscellaneous- Haasan Reddick has been moved from ILB to OLB this year and he finally looks like the dynamic rover type player we saw at Temple. Reddick and Baker are the two players on the Cardinals defense to game plan for. However, their defensive line and other LBs looked mostly invisible or vulnerable in these two wins. Arizona is pretty aggressive under Kingsbury going for it on 4th down which is something to watch for. Seattle had a big hand in allowing the Cardinals to tie this game with a huge unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on an Arizona FG attempt with 2:30 left in the game which led to a Cards first down and a TD literally one play later. 

 

Week 8 Bye

 

November 8th - Week 9 Loss at Home to Miami (the Dolphins had the 18th ranked offense, 14th ranked defense, and the 2nd ranked special teams after Week 9, current record: 5-3) by a score of 34-31:

• Kyler Murray- 21/26 for 283 yards and 4 total TDs. Showed his typical running threat throughout this game on a combination of designed runs and broken plays. On Arizona's opening drive, Murray was sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah and fumbled which was returned for a TD by Bills Alumni Shaq Lawson. As the game went on though, Kyler and Hopkins/Kirk/Fitzgerald all feasted on crossing routes which proved effective against Miami's man coverage (just like we did in Week 2). Put together a nice drive that ended with a TD pass to Maxx Williams who has just returned from IR. Unleashed one of his best throws of the season, a 56 yard TD pass to Kirk while under pressure. Nearly threw an INT in the end zone to Byron Jones, but Arizona's TE Darrell Daniels wrestled it away from him for a TD. Ran untouched for a TD on a power sweep to the left late in the third quarter. 
• Cards Running Game- Kyler led the team again with 106 rushing yards and 9.6 YPC. Edmonds struggled to replace Drake with just 70 yards and 2.8 YPC. 
• DeAndre Hopkins- only 3 catches for 30 yards. Not targeted at all in the first half. Miami was pretty effective at limiting Hopkins in this game although Xavien Howard played way too physical past five yards and gave the referees at least 3 very easy PI calls.
• Christian Kirk- 5 catches for 123 yards and 1 TD. Absolutely took Byron Jones' lunch money in this one. Caught the aforementioned long TD from Murray in the 2nd quarter and then made a huge catch to set the Cards up in FG range at the end of the game. 
• Larry Fitzgerald- 4 catches for 54 yards. Never drops the ball and just kept the chains moving for Arizona like he always does. 
• Cards Run Defense- Gave up a goal line TD to Jordan Howard and lost contain on Tua more often in the 2nd half. However, they held Miami under 100 yards rushing on the day. 
• Cards Pass Defense- Allowed 248 yards and 2 TDs by Tua. Two of the top 3 CBs for Arizona missed this game and Preston Williams wound up missing most of the contest, exiting with a foot injury. Miami was successful in completing a lot of back shoulder throws against the Cardinals secondary. Also, the middle of the field seemed to be open for Miami's WRs and TEs a ton similar to what I saw in previous games. Arizona sacked Tua 3 times including one by Markus Golden who was just acquired at the deadline. 
• Miscellaneous- Miami confused Murray a few times with that double A gap blitz/drop off play we like to use on defense, Murray and the Cards O-line had a tough time deciphering where the pressure was coming from. Also worth noting that Andy Isabella fumbled the second half kickoff and that Miami partially blocked one of Gonzalez's FGs (the Cards recovered and the FG still went in, but there might be a weakness there). 

 

 

November 15th - Week 10 Arizona Cardinals (current record: 5-3, 9th ranked offense, 10th ranked defense, and 23rd ranked special teams after Week 9) At Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 7-2, 10th ranked offense, 17th ranked defense, and 8th ranked special teams after Week 9)

• Bills On Offense- I think the Cardinals have looked fairly stout up the middle, but have looked very vulnerable on the edges in the run game. The Bills need to continue to take good care of the ball and win the turnover battle as Arizona has done a great job of taking the ball away recently (they have benefited from some serious luck/bad play by the opposing team in this department IMO but still). I also believe Beasley and the TEs could have success in this game based on what I've seen particularly over the middle. Arizona blitz a decent amount, but I didn't see them generate much pressure and I expect there to be some run lanes for Josh if he chooses. Lastly, Arizona's CB depth has been tested (they may get some guys back for this game) and I don't see anyone including Patrick Peterson who can cover Diggs. 

 

• Bills On Defense- First off, Murray's running ability is elite and scares me more than his arm at this point in his young career. It's more essential than in any other game this season that our defensive line plays with the proper contain technique as Murray still shows a run-first mentality at times. Putting a spy on Murray to prevent him from moving the chains with his legs (particularly to his favored left side) seems like a good idea as well (but who do we have that can keep up with him?). Arizona's spread offense is predicated on short crossers and screens with the occasional deep shot to Kirk or Hopkins off of play action if they get single coverage. I think playing dime/nickel and keeping more speed on the field will be important in order to limit Murray's elusiveness as a running threat and take away the deep passes. I would shade a safety towards Kirk to mitigate the deep threat and then use Tre to shadow Hopkins as well in what I think is an even matchup. Out of these three games, Miami definitely had the best game plan for Murray from what I saw and I think our defense incorporates a lot of the same blitz/pressure packages, but I think our zone heavy scheme will be more effective against Murray and their WRs than Miami's man coverage so that gives me hope. 

 

• On Special Teams- With Arizona's poor ST ranking thus far in 2020, I'm expecting an Andre Roberts revenge game. Zane Gonzalez missed a potential game-winning FG in OT wide left against Seattle and then missed a would be game-tying FG short against Miami, but is usually pretty consistent and has a strong leg so I'm sure he'll hit a 60 yarder against us. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. A road game against a good NFC West opponent is a tall task, but I actually like this matchup for the Bills in all three phases. My biggest concern is the elite running threat that Murray poses. If we can limit that part of his game and force him to beat us with his arm, I like our chances a lot. 

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!

[ghostwriter]

Great post!

 

I do think one wildcard going into this game though is this Bills defense.. Great defense over these last few years but kind of struggled over the first half of the season BUT we did some good things against Russ and a great great great Seattle offense.. I think COVID royally screwed this squad and I think they’re just getting their feet under them now.. I’ll take Allen over Murray and I’ll take Russ over Murray too so I think Murray should have a lesser game than Wilson... Overall I think this will have to be a team effort.. Need Smoke, Knox, Davis and Beezer to step up.. Diggs against Peterson is a tough tough matchup for us.. Hopefully we do see some production out of Diggs in spite of that though.. 

[prissythecat]

Nice write-up.  Refreshing to see a solid balanced analysis here. 

[BuffAlone]

I appreciate your work here. But if you made this a video, I'd actually watch it

[Hebert19]

Pretty simple scouting actually.  

 

They beat Seattle.  Rest are Meh teams...including Dallas and Jets who suck.  

 

They lost to Detroit.   End thread. 

[HOUSE]

Captain Kirk is my favorite . I have him in my Fantasy beam me up league

[Rocky Landing]

Good Stuff, DSB! 

I wonder if Siran Neal shouldn't get some more time at Nickel in this game. He plays fierce, and might be our best option at spying Murray?

 

Also, Klein needs another performance like he had vs. Seattle. No way he's fast enough to get to Murray if he gets past the LOS, but he could be critical in keeping Murray contained if he can get the sort of penetration he did on Sunday. Also, this may be a game where Trent Murphy makes an impact (that's right, I said it). I could also see Poyer becoming very intimate with Murray. As long as we don't let him break up the middle.

 

Honestly, I do worry that our D does not match up well vs. Murray. All our struggles have been vs. teams with a balanced offense, and  the Cards' air raid offense notwithstanding, they do run a comparatively even balance of run vs. pass plays. As McD says, the hardest offenses to defend are the one's that use the entire field. I think our best chance is to keep Murray contained the way we did Wilson.

[John from Riverside]

My scouting report.....the Cardinals are good

 

(were better)

[DCbillsfan]

I thought the Bills D line did a good job of maintaining their pass rush lanes against Wilson.  I only recall Wilson scrambling once for positive yardage.  Plus the QB sneak for a 1 yd TD.  Need a repeat against Murray although he's more prone to running than Wilson imo.

[AmishRifle]

I’m interested in how we react to tempo.  The tempo could be a great equalizer in keeping the defensive play calls simple.

[hemma]

Did you happen to notice if Buddha Baker sneaks up to the line when the QB is under center?

I’m thinking we run even more play action than usual.

 

Josh will need to spot that guy, every snap.  

Edited November 12, 2020 by hemma

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Great post!

 

I do think one wildcard going into this game though is this Bills defense.. Great defense over these last few years but kind of struggled over the first half of the season BUT we did some good things against Russ and a great great great Seattle offense.. I think COVID royally screwed this squad and I think they’re just getting their feet under them now.. I’ll take Allen over Murray and I’ll take Russ over Murray too so I think Murray should have a lesser game than Wilson... Overall I think this will have to be a team effort.. Need Smoke, Knox, Davis and Beezer to step up.. Diggs against Peterson is a tough tough matchup for us.. Hopefully we do see some production out of Diggs in spite of that though.. 

Thanks! Yeah definitely not a given that our defense continues its recent form and Arizona presents a tough match up in terms of their weapons (Kyler and Hopkins especially) and their up tempo scheme. However, I like the Tre vs Hopkins match up a lot better than Tre against Lockett or Metcalf for example given their speed. If we can shadow Hopkins with White, bracket Kirk to prevent big plays, and most importantly, limit Murray's scrambling and running, I believe we can really limit their offense. I also like that Kyler hasn't faced our defense before and I think the pre-snap deception of Hyde/Poyer could bait him into some mistakes. 

 

As far as Patrick Peterson goes, I think he's living off his reputation a bit. I thought it looked like he lost a step last year and some Arizona fans are saying he's had a down year so far by his standards. The depth behind him at CB could be shaky as well. 

 

A couple things I didn't mention in my OP...Arizona misses a ton of tackles on defense (2nd in the league I believe and they've already had their bye) and they have committed a high number of penalties as well. 

[JerseyBills]

Appreciate the post. 

Very well said, great read. 

I'm looking forward to the challenge! 

I think everything is starting to come together for Buffalo.  I think they'll be humming on both sides. 

Wanting to go into the bye on a Win. 

 

Morse comes back at C too!

Edited November 12, 2020 by JerseyBills

[aristocrat]

Common opponent is the hawks obviously.  I think we win containing Kyler

[billsbackto81]

11 hours ago, AmishRifle said:

I’m interested in how we react to tempo.  The tempo could be a great equalizer in keeping the defensive play calls simple.

Good point. Arizona goes " no huddle" more than any other team in the league. We gotta make sure the right personnel is on the field at all times.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

17 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Good Stuff, DSB! 

I wonder if Siran Neal shouldn't get some more time at Nickel in this game. He plays fierce, and might be our best option at spying Murray?

 

Also, Klein needs another performance like he had vs. Seattle. No way he's fast enough to get to Murray if he gets past the LOS, but he could be critical in keeping Murray contained if he can get the sort of penetration he did on Sunday. Also, this may be a game where Trent Murphy makes an impact (that's right, I said it). I could also see Poyer becoming very intimate with Murray. As long as we don't let him break up the middle.

 

Honestly, I do worry that our D does not match up well vs. Murray. All our struggles have been vs. teams with a balanced offense, and  the Cards' air raid offense notwithstanding, they do run a comparatively even balance of run vs. pass plays. As McD says, the hardest offenses to defend are the one's that use the entire field. I think our best chance is to keep Murray contained the way we did Wilson.

Thanks man! Yeah I agree that Siran Neal could be a good shout for a spy or even Dane Jackson given his physicality and sure tackling. In truth, we don't have anyone as quick as Murray (I doubt many defenses do...for some reason, the first name that popped into my head is Ashtyn Davis, the rookie FS on the Jets. There's obviously better players out there, but that dude is fasttttt.). We just need to do our best to contain him and not let him keep moving the sticks with his legs. 

 

Agree with your points about our wider defense as well. Fortunately, the Cardinals defense also struggles to defend the width of the field and has missed more tackles and committed more penalties than we have (which is saying something!). I think the game comes down to whose offense/QB can assert their authority over the opposing defense more effectively and I'm expecting this game to smash the over again. 

[LABILLBACKER]

We better be prepared to pressure Murray like Russ but we'll have to add a spy. This game will be like last years Raven game.  Our defense must continue to bring 5+.....