Is the Bills window smaller than thought?

[Warcodered]

Are the Steelers and Chiefs not favorites in the AFC?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

once you are in the super bowl it’s not like the qb pay makes it suddenly impossible to win.

 

that said, I keep banging the drum that it’ll never be easier for them than it is now and I’d put everything on the table. 

I could see the financial argument for that but on the flip side do we really have any impact players that are retiring anytime soon? Maybe hyde in the secondary and some defensive linemen that aren't playing great anyway? Consistency is as important as anything and the core pieces of this team will be together a long time

[BillsShredder83]

I say we out-belicheck the belicheck, and cut josh beforeeeee he gets a raise!

[aceman_16]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB...

 

If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions...

 

Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract...

 

Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money.

It would be better to use cap % vs actual dollar amounts (ie perhaps 20 million in cap today is less of a cap hit than 10 million 10 years ago).....otherwise it can be misleading.

[Malazan]

34 minutes ago, aceman_16 said:

It would be better to use cap % vs actual dollar amounts (ie perhaps 20 million in cap today is less of a cap hit than 10 million 10 years ago).....otherwise it can be misleading.

 

2019 - Mahomes Chiefs - 2.4%

2018 - Brady Patriots - 12.4%
2017 - Foles / Wentz Eagles - 4.6%
2016 - Brady Patriots 8.9%
2015 - Manning Broncos - 12.2%
2014 - Brady Patriots - 11.1%
2013 - Wilson Seahawks - .6%
2012 - Flacco Ravens - 6.6%
2011 - Eli Manning Giants - 11.7%
2010 - Rodgers Packers - Uncapped year
2009 - Brees - 8.7%
2008 - Roethlisberger - 10.7%
2007 - Eli - 9.2%
2006 - Peyton - 10.4%
2005 - Roethlisberger - 4.9%
2004 - Brady - 6.3%
2003 - Brady - 4.4%
2002 - Johnson - 7.88%
2001 - Brady - .5%

 

However, this is HIGHLY misleading. Many of these teams had players who took up a higher % of the cap than the arbitrary 20 million number which would be 10.1% of the cap this season. 

 

The largest percent of the cap ever spent on one player while winning a Superbowl was Steve Young at 13.1% which would be about $26 million this year. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by jeremy2020

[JESSEFEFFER]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said for a year that I think Josh will give the Bills a discount.   Josh is smart and a team guy, and he recognizes the impact of the mega-deals on the ability of the GM to put together a winner.  I

 

I think Josh will leave money on the table. 

I have a plan for this built on the model the Patriots used with Tom Brady's private company that supplied training services to them.

 

Link

 

For the price of a hat, boots, guitar and some lessons, PSE could sign Josh to a recording contract.  I am sure it it would be worth millions.  Who can put a price tag on art anyways as it is beauty measured by the eyes and ears of the beholder?.  Heck, they could sign his gf to a recording contract too.   Britney looks like she can sing and would look great doing it regardless.

Edited November 10, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[QCity]

This "window to win on a rookie QB deal" was always hogwash.

 

KC gave Mahomes a half billion dollars -- their window to win is the next 15 years.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 minute ago, QCity said:

This "window to win on a rookie QB deal" was always hogwash.

 

KC gave Mahomes a half billion dollars -- their window to win is the next 15 years.

Seahawks look to be having problems keeping a decent OL and defensive secondary to complement Russ.   The margin for roster/salary cap errors certainly shrinks.

[78thealltimegreat]

This is silly only Brady cause his wife makes a gazillion dollars is any kind of a discount Brees, Rogers, Wilson, Goff,  Big Ben, and of course Mr. Maholmes would disagree strongly with this...and last I checked they all had really good records 

[Mr. WEO]

wtf?

 

So Mahomes, Rodgers, Big Ben....those teams should just cut these guys or trade them, right?   Windows: CLOSED!

 

This thread....

[bobobonators]

6 hours ago, matter2003 said:

No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB...

 

If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions...

 

Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract...

 

Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money.

That means the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Cardinals, Chargers etc all have the same limited time frame. I guess no one will ever win a SB. Perhaps Andy Dalton leading the cowgirls. 

[97bills]

6 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I am so confused...

If you don’t have a QB you suck if you have one and pay him you suck lol that’s what I got from it

[bobobonators]

30 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Seahawks look to be having problems keeping a decent OL and defensive secondary to complement Russ.   The margin for roster/salary cap errors certainly shrinks.

This is the biggest problem imo. Paying a player like R Wilson or Mahomes a ridiculous amount of money isnt the problem. Just like it shouldnt be a problem to pay Allen. You need a top QB to win in this league. But when you do pay them the boatloads they rightfully command you need to be on your A game as a franchise when it comes to drafting and quality, role player FA’s that fit your system. That becomes the challenge. The first challenge was finding the franchise QB. The next challenge is to surround him with talent. Some GM’s can only do one; some none; some can do both - at least for a decent period of time.  
 

And not to be forgotten, much like anything else in life, you can do everything right and still lose. Only one team can walk away with the SB each year. We as Bills fans should be aware of this more than fans of most other teams from the Kelly years. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by bobobonators

[Mr. WEO]

[aceman_16]

1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

2019 - Mahomes Chiefs - 2.4%

2018 - Brady Patriots - 12.4%
2017 - Foles / Wentz Eagles - 4.6%
2016 - Brady Patriots 8.9%
2015 - Manning Broncos - 12.2%
2014 - Brady Patriots - 11.1%
2013 - Wilson Seahawks - .6%
2012 - Flacco Ravens - 6.6%
2011 - Eli Manning Giants - 11.7%
2010 - Rodgers Packers - Uncapped year
2009 - Brees - 8.7%
2008 - Roethlisberger - 10.7%
2007 - Eli - 9.2%
2006 - Peyton - 10.4%
2005 - Roethlisberger - 4.9%
2004 - Brady - 6.3%
2003 - Brady - 4.4%
2002 - Johnson - 7.88%
2001 - Brady - .5%

 

However, this is HIGHLY misleading. Many of these teams had players who took up a higher % of the cap than the arbitrary 20 million number which would be 10.1% of the cap this season. 

 

The largest percent of the cap ever spent on one player while winning a Superbowl was Steve Young at 13.1% which would be about $26 million this year. 

Great numbers - thank you! So as I said previously 6 out of 18 OR 33% of the quarterbacks would have made more than the $20 million (relatively speaking in today's dollars) number.....so this $20 million number is crap. Moreover, as YOU pointed out the 66% of the time MAY have had players over that relative $20 million Mark which makes that argument even weaker.

[Buffalo Junction]

Pretty sure they beat the Rams with Brady’s take being over $20 million. 🤷‍♂️

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 hours ago, matter2003 said:

No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB...

 

If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions...

 

Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract...

 

Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money.

You probably are better off looking at QB cap % rather than just salary. Not saying it changes the outcome because I haven't looked but cap % is more accurate. 

 

But yes it's easier to build a stronger roster around a QB on a rookie deal. Basically the difference is 1 good starting player. 

 

 

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, arcane said:

He will consistently get us to where we need to be to have a chance, even when the team is struggling elsewhere 

That usually defines a Franchise QB - one who can carry the team on his shoulder.  Go Bills

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Don't disagree with anything you stated, but would add to it where the problem becomes a huge issue to the point the team can't win, it's not due to giving Brady, Manning, or a Mahommes a huge contract.   It's giving huge or close to huge contracts to someone like a Tyrod Taylor or a Tannerhill (though not looking so bad now in Tenn) who is a good QB, but not a superstar that can carry the team on his back.  Then you quickly get yourself in trouble.

 

I definitely agree when you pay a tier 2 or tier 3 QB as if he is tier 1, you immediately diminish your chances of building a powerhouse.  So many examples of teams overpaying guys early because they had to.  Doesn't mean those teams cant get there or win a SB that fall into those situations, just means its going to be harder on those teams if they are not supported by a strong front office and coaching staff who can find talent in the draft and get the most of it on the field.  

 

Its also not always avoidable or even wrong to do that either, especially if that tier 2 or tier 3 QB is young and trending toward that tier 1 level.  Some teams have no choice but to roll the dice.  Take Goff for example, I personally felt it was too early to give him that size of a deal, there were a lot of question marks still about his toughness and ability under pressure (and quite frankly still are today).  But they were kind of in a spot where they had to roll the dice based on his trend line and production.  No team is going to let Goff walk that early in his career, so I get it.  Just one of those spots you hope the progress continues.  Sometimes this works out, other times this turns into Kap in SF, Tannehill in Miami, Carr in Oakland, etc where it doesn't and they underperform to that deal moving forward.  That can really set a franchise back a while.

 

 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I definitely agree when you pay a tier 2 or tier 3 QB as if he is tier 1, you immediately diminish your chances of building a powerhouse.  So many examples of teams overpaying guys early because they had to.  Doesn't mean those teams cant get there or win a SB that fall into those situations, just means its going to be harder on those teams if they are not supported by a strong front office and coaching staff who can find talent in the draft and get the most of it on the field.  

 

Its also not always avoidable or even wrong to do that either, especially if that tier 2 or tier 3 QB is young and trending toward that tier 1 level.  Some teams have no choice but to roll the dice.  Take Goff for example, I personally felt it was too early to give him that size of a deal, there were a lot of question marks still about his toughness and ability under pressure (and quite frankly still are today).  But they were kind of in a spot where they had to roll the dice based on his trend line and production.  No team is going to let Goff walk that early in his career, so I get it.  Just one of those spots you hope the progress continues.  Sometimes this works out, other times this turns into Kap in SF, Tannehill in Miami, Carr in Oakland, etc where it doesn't and they underperform to that deal moving forward.  That can really set a franchise back a while.

 

 

 

 

 

I get it too, but it just seems like the majority of these guys don't ever get to the tier I level or even close once they get paid.