The much maligned deterioration of the passing game...

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

Mahomes and Brady have off games. They all do. We need Josh to bounce back. Cheer for your QB. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

Top QB's have bad games too. Russell Wilson threw 3 INT's in a game this year.

[K-9]

Don’t believe the hype. The only poor game Allen has had in the last four is the Chiefs game and I attribute that mostly to never being able to establish much of a rhythm given the Chiefs TOP dominance. 

[947]

Something I noticed about Josh in the KC game that I haven't heard anyone mention, was that he wasn't stepping into his throws, any of them. Even the deeper passes were just flicked out there. I think it was due to traction in the rain, you could tell he was slipping a lot when he ran & tried to cut. I think he was worried about slipping if he planted fully on his front foot.

 

Our turf is known for being slippery as it is. It looked like he was wearing hard plastic spikes, and I even commented during the game that I bet he'll come out in the 2nd half with rubber spikes, or at least different spikes. He didn't, and I don't think he had any confidence in his footing.

 

Hopefully no more rain games...

Edited November 7, 2020 by 947

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Don’t believe the hype. The only poor game Allen has had in the last four is the Chiefs game and I attribute that mostly to never being able to establish much of a rhythm given the Chiefs TOP dominance. 

 

Not entirely.  At the risk of sounding like a shill for the guy, Jim Kubiak had another good analysis.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-bills-josh-allens-bad-misses-protection-errors-are-undoing-vs-chiefs/article_6f3d89d4-1322-11eb-b314-53f1b4824aea.html

 

-He points out that Allen had 6 makable throws that can really be described as outright misses out of 27 attempts, and that if he'd hit those, he would have had 74% completion and the Bills would have had a much better day offensively.  Most of these were early in the game.

-He also points out passes where his receivers let him down.  Unfortunately as he was playing hurt John Brown responsible for two of those, one for a 1st down and one for a TD.

-Allen also failed to utilize his "hot" receiver (usually Singletary) on a couple of blitzes

-We had a couple of deep throws for a TD that were just a trifle off - a bit late, placement a bit off.

 

The KC game was a bad game for Allen and he didn't start to find his stride until the 4th Q.  The bad game was not because of bad cleats or bad weather, it was between his ears - not recognizing what the Chiefs were doing offensively and reacting appropriately.  We did have some running game - 23 rushes for 84 yds is 3.65 ypc, that moves the chains.

 

It would have helped if our D could have gotten the Chiefs off the field a bit more and allowed the offense a few more chances to get their act together, but just as I don't like to accept "the offense got too many 3 and outs so our poor defense was exhausted" (get your own 3 and out and give the ball back to 'em, dude), I don't like to put it on the D either.  Sustain your own drives  and make your own chances.

 

Hopefully Josh and the offense learned from it.

 

 

[BillsToast]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Serious question: have you ever looked at the game logs of these undoubtedly "top QB"? 

 

Mahomes is at the top of the league right now and Allen isn't in his weight class (yet), but Mahomes, too, has days where he throws 2 INTs and 0 TDs and completes <55% of his passes and passes for less than 200 yds. 

 

Honest. 

 

He does.

 

Really.

 

 

Interestingly looking at the Mahomes stats you see something you don't see with Allen and that's 30+ scoring even when he has a bad stat game. Is that coaching or just QB play? Don't know. 

 

But you can't compare the scoring with Mahomes even with bad games with Allen except 4 games he crushed it to start the season. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

Interestingly looking at the Mahomes stats you see something you don't see with Allen and that's 30+ scoring even when he has a bad stat game. Is that coaching or just QB play? Don't know. 

 

If you look at KC's history it might help you figure it out. 

 

KC has had the same coach since 2013 - a noted offensive mastermind.  They went to the playoffs 3 of the 4 years before they drafted Mahomes, as well as the year after they drafted him (but let him sit on the bench and learn without 'dodging bullets').  Their record was 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 the three years before Mahomes started. 

 

Mahomes has shown he's a generational talent at QB, no doubt.  But he was also handed the keys to a mature, well-designed, high-functioning offense. 

 

Yeah, coaching has something to do with it. 

 

Well-developed talent around him has something to do with it as well.  Travis Kelce has been a top TE in the league since 2013.  His worst catch % is 68%, usually above 70%.  He had >1000 yd seasons for two years before Mahomes started.  Tyreek Hill likewise had a 1180 yd, 71.4% catch season the year before Mahomes started.

 

They're a very good well coached team where we're still figuring out how to run block effectively and sometimes to get QB and WR on the same page with their routes.

 

Even so, we were a missed field goal away from tieing it up at halftime, and a drive on each side of the ball away from tieing it up.  It's not like they tore us up like the Broncs or the Jets.

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

I love absolutely love that my "first round bust" franchise QB is now a disappointment if he isn't routinely throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs a game.  

 

Based on expectations like this, how are Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold still starting games?

 

And yes folks the weather, horrific run game (especially vs Titans), and defenses daring us to run it, have impacted what was insane production to simply pedestrian numbers.

 

So how can there be a deterioration of a passing game when the adjustments we've made have been to take what's given (vs the Jets) and stick to what was working (the run game) vs NE.

 

 

Allen remains on pace for 4300 passing yards, 32 TDs, 10 INTs, 500 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs.  Currently a 102 passer rating.  

 

For everything "deteriorating" from the defense to the passing game it's amazing we are 6-2.

 

Basically, without Allen, we are likely 2-6.  

 

Franchise.  MVP candidate.  Going to go off Sunday.  

Edited November 7, 2020 by Big Blitz

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not entirely.  At the risk of sounding like a shill for the guy, Jim Kubiak had another good analysis.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-bills-josh-allens-bad-misses-protection-errors-are-undoing-vs-chiefs/article_6f3d89d4-1322-11eb-b314-53f1b4824aea.html

 

-He points out that Allen had 6 makable throws that can really be described as outright misses out of 27 attempts, and that if he'd hit those, he would have had 74% completion and the Bills would have had a much better day offensively.  Most of these were early in the game.

-He also points out passes where his receivers let him down.  Unfortunately as he was playing hurt John Brown responsible for two of those, one for a 1st down and one for a TD.

-Allen also failed to utilize his "hot" receiver (usually Singletary) on a couple of blitzes

-We had a couple of deep throws for a TD that were just a trifle off - a bit late, placement a bit off.

 

The KC game was a bad game for Allen and he didn't start to find his stride until the 4th Q.  The bad game was not because of bad cleats or bad weather, it was between his ears - not recognizing what the Chiefs were doing offensively and reacting appropriately.  We did have some running game - 23 rushes for 84 yds is 3.65 ypc, that moves the chains.

 

It would have helped if our D could have gotten the Chiefs off the field a bit more and allowed the offense a few more chances to get their act together, but just as I don't like to accept "the offense got too many 3 and outs so our poor defense was exhausted" (get your own 3 and out and give the ball back to 'em, dude), I don't like to put it on the D either.  Sustain your own drives  and make your own chances.

 

Hopefully Josh and the offense learned from it.

 

 

Right, so his one bad game of the four was the KC game. 

[batmanfreek]

Chief’s game was by design.  Long drives. No quick strikes. Bleed the time.  On defense, long drives. Try to hold them to a FG, worst case a TD but burn that clock. Try to be the last to score.  

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

So I was listening to Greg Cowell chat with Tasker and crew today and he mentioned the weather impact on bills passing offense so I thought I'd take a look at a few things.  Besides the fact that knox and brown have either been hurt or playing hurt which makes a big difference.  

 

1st bad game titans - yes.  Wasn't a great game but it was also first time we saw a team drop 7 back in coverage.  So he didn't adjust well.   We also got behind due to the bad early interception and were flat in general.   So lets call this a bad game. 

 

Chiefs - similar defensive gameplan.  But the keys that people miss when they lump this in with the slump is...it was kind of ***** weather.  Rain and windy.   And the TOP was over 37 min for the chiefs.   Offense hardly had any possessions because defense didn't get off the field.  Not sure this shows any regression.  

 

Jets - windy.  And he threw for 300+ and had the offense in scoring position 9 straight drives.  Penalties killed us from getting more points.   No regression there.  

 

Pats - gameplan was to run the ball.  Was windy as hell.   And Josh did what he needed to do as part of the gameplan.  

 

My point is...I'm not sure there really is a slump.  Yes we aren't putting up points a record rates but the weather and opponents are a huge factor.  

 

This week.  Bad defense.  Good weather.  We get back to where we started and have a huge offensive game.  

In other words every week its either windy or rainy. Time for a dome. We finally have a qb with a big arm which gets neutralized constantly by the Buffalo weather. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

We should not under estimate the impact of an injured John Brown.  Every good passing offense has at least one speed receiver that forces the pass defense to guard against the deep ball.  It was obvious that when Brown was missing or playing when unhealthy, pass defenses could sit on the short routes, put a safety in the box, and attack the line of scrimmage.  It is normal for people to jump to the conclusion that everything falls on the QB and much of it does.  In the four games in question, the receivers were not winning and were not making plays in key situations.  The drops and tipped balls were drive killers.  IMHO the absence of the long ball threat is a major contributing factor to the offensive struggles.

[Billsfan1972]

Listen to the Coaches and they always sound passive wrt the Offense when playing teams like KC & NE.  They need to go out & assert themselves and that meas using your best asset Allen.

 

To hear the dropping 7 men crap, means beat them underneath, swing passes, screens.....  Sure mix in the run and if it works use it, but don't over do it.  Allen's legs too.

 

Vs. Seattle the plan should be simple.....  We're going top outscore them by putting 42 up.  

 

My concern is they will think outscoring them is TOP and that they can win 24-21.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Listen to the Coaches and they always sound passive wrt the Offense when playing teams like KC & NE.  They need to go out & assert themselves and that meas using your best asset Allen.

 

To hear the dropping 7 men crap, means beat them underneath, swing passes, screens.....  Sure mix in the run and if it works use it, but don't over do it.  Allen's legs too.

 

Vs. Seattle the plan should be simple.....  We're going top outscore them by putting 42 up.  

 

My concern is they will think outscoring them is TOP and that they can win 24-21.

I actually agree with this. There is more play selection that can be done to take advantage of a defense than just "taking what the defense gives you."

 

They should be dictating. Not letting the defense dictate. If you want them to get out of that look then you need to call plays that beat that look badly. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Scott7975

[Hebert19]

11 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Shoulder injury and John Brown being too hurt to move the safeties back has hurt more than the weather.  Weather in Green Bay isn’t great either and that team has one good receiver and Rogers is shredding.  Josh needs to battle through this stretch - a QB’s development is rarely linear.

He wasn't so good against Tampa.  

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

In other words every week its either windy or rainy. Time for a dome. We finally have a qb with a big arm which gets neutralized constantly by the Buffalo weather. 

Hes better than most there but yes.  Its for this reason we will Never have a QB that has 70+ completion or leads the league in yards.  Weather is ***** at least 2 or 3 home games every year.   Fortunately josh has an arm that will still allow for us to pass more than in the past and he also can run which gives us an advantage. 

[somnus00]

What happened is that defenses figured out the offense that Daboll spent the offseason designing. To be fair, this is also the offense that Allen has been running all offseason as well. We need to see if Daboll and Allen can adjust their game. We haven't seen that yet. And until this happens, our offense will continue to struggle.

 

I know he's crazy athletic, but the part of Josh Allen's game that has impressed me the most is his ability to learn and adjust. He's coachable. I believe he has the ability to get things right. He just needs time. But how much time can we afford? And is Daboll the right person to teach him? I don't see Daboll as having the same ability to adjust his game.

 

I guess we'll see.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I didn't find stats separating offensive vs defensive penalties so all I have is totals, but in the first four games that were wins, the Bills averaged 5.75 penalties a game, the last four, 7.25, not a huge sounding difference, but included in those last four were 10 against Tenn and 11 against the Jets. 

 

What kept the numbers half way decent in the last four games were only 4 penalties against KC, a game in which they came about a tenth of a second from recovering a fumble fairly deep in KC territory, a TD there would have put the Bills ahead late in the game.

 

In the Jets game nine times they had the ball within the 35 yard line and came away with no TD's  Actually one was called back because of Davis not lining up correctly on the LOS.  Another time 1st and goal, holding penalty and maybe was there another 5 yard penalty afterwards too or they lost that on a bad play call.

 

The NE game in fairly windy conditions was all about running the ball, they didn't try that much to push the ball down the field, took what the defense gave them.

 

My point is not so sure the passing game would have lost that much without the team shooting themselves in the foot as much as they have.  On top of that defenses are taking away the deep passing game, forcing them to throw underneath and run which before last week, they weren't able to.  If they can continue to run the ball, will force defenses to change, then lets see how they look.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

So I was listening to Greg Cowell chat with Tasker and crew today and he mentioned the weather impact on bills passing offense so I thought I'd take a look at a few things.  Besides the fact that knox and brown have either been hurt or playing hurt which makes a big difference.  

 

1st bad game titans - yes.  Wasn't a great game but it was also first time we saw a team drop 7 back in coverage.  So he didn't adjust well.   We also got behind due to the bad early interception and were flat in general.   So lets call this a bad game. 

 

Chiefs - similar defensive gameplan.  But the keys that people miss when they lump this in with the slump is...it was kind of ***** weather.  Rain and windy.   And the TOP was over 37 min for the chiefs.   Offense hardly had any possessions because defense didn't get off the field.  Not sure this shows any regression.  

 

Jets - windy.  And he threw for 300+ and had the offense in scoring position 9 straight drives.  Penalties killed us from getting more points.   No regression there.  

 

Pats - gameplan was to run the ball.  Was windy as hell.   And Josh did what he needed to do as part of the gameplan.  

 

My point is...I'm not sure there really is a slump.  Yes we aren't putting up points a record rates but the weather and opponents are a huge factor.  

 

This week.  Bad defense.  Good weather.  We get back to where we started and have a huge offensive game.  

So basically a quarter season of tax write-off for Allen and the offense? 
 

Got it.

 

But be sure to count those first four good games though right? 

[Jay_Fixit]

14 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

Lol

[Hebert19]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So basically a quarter season of tax write-off for Allen and the offense? 
 

Got it.

 

But be sure to count those first four good games though right? 

Never said they are a write off.  I'm saying there are reasons for it.  Weather gameplan etc all factor in.