The much maligned deterioration of the passing game...

[Hebert19]

So I was listening to Greg Cowell chat with Tasker and crew today and he mentioned the weather impact on bills passing offense so I thought I'd take a look at a few things.  Besides the fact that knox and brown have either been hurt or playing hurt which makes a big difference.  

 

1st bad game titans - yes.  Wasn't a great game but it was also first time we saw a team drop 7 back in coverage.  So he didn't adjust well.   We also got behind due to the bad early interception and were flat in general.   So lets call this a bad game. 

 

Chiefs - similar defensive gameplan.  But the keys that people miss when they lump this in with the slump is...it was kind of ***** weather.  Rain and windy.   And the TOP was over 37 min for the chiefs.   Offense hardly had any possessions because defense didn't get off the field.  Not sure this shows any regression.  

 

Jets - windy.  And he threw for 300+ and had the offense in scoring position 9 straight drives.  Penalties killed us from getting more points.   No regression there.  

 

Pats - gameplan was to run the ball.  Was windy as hell.   And Josh did what he needed to do as part of the gameplan.  

 

My point is...I'm not sure there really is a slump.  Yes we aren't putting up points a record rates but the weather and opponents are a huge factor.  

 

This week.  Bad defense.  Good weather.  We get back to where we started and have a huge offensive game.  

[BillsMafi$]

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

[HardyBoy]

The second half of last year was basically all super windy games, which had to impact his deep ball accuracy no question.

 

How has Allen compared against the qbs in the same game, that is the real question in super nasty weather games.

[billybrew1]

Well, we'll see if we can beat seven back know that the other variables appear to be restored. Although JB I think is still FU.....

 

I think it's interesting that the seahags are stout vs. the run. Do we just throw or try to do both so we can play keep away?

 

Do we try an Offside K this week trying to steal a possession? Something like that has to happen I think. We definitely need STs to win. How are Seattle's STs? Ours are not playing that well particularly our punter on short to medium kicks I think...

[JoPoy88]

10 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

I think Allen is on his way to being great but you’re 100% exactly right about the constant excuse making around here, especially from the OP.

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

 

They have bad games too. Rodgers had a brutal game a few weeks ago.

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

Lol

[Augie]

40 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

So I was listening to Greg Cowell chat with Tasker and crew today and he mentioned the weather impact on bills passing offense so I thought I'd take a look at a few things.  Besides the fact that knox and brown have either been hurt or playing hurt which makes a big difference.  

 

1st bad game titans - yes.  Wasn't a great game but it was also first time we saw a team drop 7 back in coverage.  So he didn't adjust well.   We also got behind due to the bad early interception and were flat in general.   So lets call this a bad game. 

 

Chiefs - similar defensive gameplan.  But the keys that people miss when they lump this in with the slump is...it was kind of ***** weather.  Rain and windy.   And the TOP was over 37 min for the chiefs.   Offense hardly had any possessions because defense didn't get off the field.  Not sure this shows any regression.  

 

Jets - windy.  And he threw for 300+ and had the offense in scoring position 9 straight drives.  Penalties killed us from getting more points.   No regression there.  

 

Pats - gameplan was to run the ball.  Was windy as hell.   And Josh did what he needed to do as part of the gameplan.  

 

My point is...I'm not sure there really is a slump.  Yes we aren't putting up points a record rates but the weather and opponents are a huge factor.  

 

This week.  Bad defense.  Good weather.  We get back to where we started and have a huge offensive game.  

 

From your fingertips to.............well, the scoreboard!!! THAT is what counts! 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

So I was listening to Greg Cowell chat with Tasker and crew today and he mentioned the weather impact on bills passing offense so I thought I'd take a look at a few things.  Besides the fact that knox and brown have either been hurt or playing hurt which makes a big difference.  

 

1st bad game titans - yes.  Wasn't a great game but it was also first time we saw a team drop 7 back in coverage.  So he didn't adjust well.   We also got behind due to the bad early interception and were flat in general.   So lets call this a bad game. 

 

Chiefs - similar defensive gameplan.  But the keys that people miss when they lump this in with the slump is...it was kind of ***** weather.  Rain and windy.   And the TOP was over 37 min for the chiefs.   Offense hardly had any possessions because defense didn't get off the field.  Not sure this shows any regression.  

 

Jets - windy.  And he threw for 300+ and had the offense in scoring position 9 straight drives.  Penalties killed us from getting more points.   No regression there.  

 

Pats - gameplan was to run the ball.  Was windy as hell.   And Josh did what he needed to do as part of the gameplan.  

 

My point is...I'm not sure there really is a slump.  Yes we aren't putting up points a record rates but the weather and opponents are a huge factor.  

 

This week.  Bad defense.  Good weather.  We get back to where we started and have a huge offensive game.  

 

One reason for the Bills drafting Allen was to have a guy with a strong arm who could make throws that cut through the wind.

 

I think Allen has probably seen 7 drop back in coverage in multiple games by now.  The problem wasn't the 7 dropping back in coverage.  The problem was Allen "getting greedy" and forcing balls into coverage instead of taking what the D gave us, compounded by a complete and total lack of run game.

 

I don't think there's a "slump" or a "regression", but Allen (and our offense) have to be able to adjust more quickly and if there's a gap to a team's game, other teams will exploit it

 

There are some offenses (Patriots for example) that are genuinely difficult to diagnose and throw against

 

We're not going to "get back to where we started" and have a huge offensive game unless 1) Allen's shoulder is reasonably healed and able to make those pinpoint throws again 2) the Seasnakes are so foolish as to man-up on our guys - which they may do if we run all over them or cut them to death with the short passing game

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

11 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

From your fingertips to.............well, the scoreboard!!! THAT is what counts! 

 

They were 2-2 in the four games and the two they lost certainly weren't because of Allen.  Did he play great, as good as the first four games, no.  But the defense couldn't stop anything.  The KC they were trying to run the ball  with very little success to keep KC 's offense off the field and at the same time KC ran all over the bills to the tune of 37 minutes of possession.  So in 22 minutes they had the ball they scored 17 points.

 

So as to the scoreboard, we're 6-2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Serious question: have you ever looked at the game logs of these undoubtedly "top QB"? 

 

Mahomes is at the top of the league right now and Allen isn't in his weight class (yet), but Mahomes, too, has days where he throws 2 INTs and 0 TDs and completes <55% of his passes and passes for less than 200 yds. 

 

Honest. 

 

He does.

 

Really.

 

[whatdrought]

48 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

You’re an inspiration to pathetic trolls everywhere.

 

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Serious question: have you ever looked at the game logs of these undoubtedly "top QB"? 

 

Mahomes is at the top of the league right now and Allen isn't in his weight class (yet), but Mahomes, too, has days where he throws 2 INTs and 0 TDs and completes <55% of his passes and passes for less than 200 yds. 

 

Honest. 

 

He does.

 

Really.

 

Not sure the internet is good enough to load stat logs in his section of underbridgeville. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by whatdrought

[folz]

3 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Excuses excuses. Top QBs don’t need excuses and are consistently good...Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

Allen isn’t there yet and who knows if he ever will e 

 

I'm not saying that Josh is 100% there yet, he still needs more experience. But...

 

You can throw out the Pats game as part of any type of slump. He didn't have a bad game at all. The game plan was to run the ball down their throats. They didn't need him to pass. (Dabol even said that they only practiced two passing plays all week leading up to the game). So, this can not be considered part of any slump, because Josh and the offense executed the game plan that was prepared and called.

 

The Jets game was a good game for Josh, except for not getting in the end zone (which has nothing to do with the number of corners dropped, because the field is shortened in the red zone). It had more to do with penalties and good defense. But Josh played a lot better in this game than a lot of posters give him credit for.

 

So, I would not include either of those games as a "slump" for either Josh or the offense. People may not have been happy with how close they were or the number of points scored, but these were not bad games by the offense.

 

Yes, Tennessee defended the Bills differently, and it looks like Josh/the offense didn't get a handle on that by the KC game either. But by the Jets game, Josh was executing the short passing game, taking what the defense gave him. So, it took him two games to adjust to a major change in how he was being defended. For a third year QB, I don't think that is bad at all. Not to mention that KC and Tenn are two of the best teams in the league.

 

Besides, not even the greats have 300-yard games every week, because the opponent, weather, injuries factor into how you are going to try to win the game. For instance, the QB most consider the best ever, Tom Brady, has 110 300-yard passing games in 343 career games. Or just under one-third of the games he has played. That averages out to just five 300-yard passing games per regular season (or 10-11 games/year across his career that he did not throw for 300 yards). Even Mahomes, who has been breaking all kinds of records for 300-yard games is at 50% (which is amazing) on the year and for his career ( 8 games a year with and 8 games a year without a 300-yard game). And he is a unicorn.

 

BTW, guess who else is at 50% on the year for 300-yard games?

 

People aren't making excuses for Josh or the offense, they are just saying that in reality, things probably aren't as bad as they look to a lot of people right now. And if the O-line gets settled and Brown and Knox are healthy, that will make a big difference too. But you can't discount weather and opponent when trying to assess Josh or the offense. Those things definitely dictate game plans. So, I do not think the offense or Josh are in any type of slump. They just had a couple of bad games against two of the best teams in the NFL and then game plan influenced the Pats game. Not getting in the end zone against the Jets was definitely a bit concerning. But, overall, they have been so good at that this year, that the Jets game is a blip, not a trend.

 

Keep the faith! Go Bills!

[Hebert19]

9 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I'm not saying that Josh is 100% there yet, he still needs more experience. But...

 

You can throw out the Pats game as part of any type of slump. He didn't have a bad game at all. The game plan was to run the ball down their throats. They didn't need him to pass. (Dabol even said that they only practiced two passing plays all week leading up to the game). So, this can not be considered part of any slump, because Josh and the offense executed the game plan that was prepared and called.

 

The Jets game was a good game for Josh, except for not getting in the end zone (which has nothing to do with the number of corners dropped, because the field is shortened in the red zone). It had more to do with penalties and good defense. But Josh played a lot better in this game than a lot of posters give him credit for.

 

So, I would not include either of those games as a "slump" for either Josh or the offense. People may not have been happy with how close they were or the number of points scored, but these were not bad games by the offense.

 

Yes, Tennessee defended the Bills differently, and it looks like Josh/the offense didn't get a handle on that by the KC game either. But by the Jets game, Josh was executing the short passing game, taking what the defense gave him. So, it took him two games to adjust to a major change in how he was being defended. For a third year QB, I don't think that is bad at all. Not to mention that KC and Tenn are two of the best teams in the league.

 

Besides, not even the greats have 300-yard games every week, because the opponent, weather, injuries factor into how you are going to try to win the game. For instance, the QB most consider the best ever, Tom Brady, has 110 300-yard passing games in 343 career games. Or just under one-third of the games he has played. That averages out to just five 300-yard passing games per regular season (or 10-11 games/year across his career that he did not throw for 300 yards). Even Mahomes, who has been breaking all kinds of records for 300-yard games is at 50% (which is amazing) on the year and for his career ( 8 games a year with and 8 games a year without a 300-yard game). And he is a unicorn.

 

BTW, guess who else is at 50% on the year for 300-yard games?

 

People aren't making excuses for Josh or the offense, they are just saying that in reality, things probably aren't as bad as they look to a lot of people right now. And if the O-line gets settled and Brown and Knox are healthy, that will make a big difference too. But you can't discount weather and opponent when trying to assess Josh or the offense. Those things definitely dictate game plans. So, I do not think the offense or Josh are in any type of slump. They just had a couple of bad games against two of the best teams in the NFL and then game plan influenced the Pats game. Not getting in the end zone against the Jets was definitely a bit concerning. But, overall, they have been so good at that this year, that the Jets game is a blip, not a trend.

 

Keep the faith! Go Bills!

Agree.   And while knox is a bit of a mess at times he also holds the safties in the middle if the field due to his ability to go down the seam.  Thus giving crosses and other deep plays a chance for brown and diggs

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

In my view, he has one bad game— Tennessee— where the game got away from the whole team. He was a bit off against KC, but I would chalk that up to the weather. 

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

In my view, he has one bad game— Tennessee— where the game got away from the whole team. He was a bit off against KC, but I would chalk that up to the weather. 

 I would generally agree. I would probably grade NE somewhere above slump but below good. Maybe a C. I could be convinced a third letter grade in either direction.  
 

Where I’ll probably disagree with you most is KC. Mahomes was something like 21/26, the weather wasn’t just super bad for Josh. He was 9/21 66 yards through 85% of the game. On top of that 1 completion for 15 yards was from the freebie Diggs throw underneath before the half. That freebie pass aside that makes the methodology of the passing game 8/20 for 51 yards. Discounting or not, that’s abysmal efficiency. 
 

Unless you’re playing in hurricane Katrina or that Indy snow game, there’s no answer for that other than “our QB played really poorly”. Especially when the other dude was 21/26 225 and 2 TDS. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Shoulder injury and John Brown being too hurt to move the safeties back has hurt more than the weather.  Weather in Green Bay isn’t great either and that team has one good receiver and Rogers is shredding.  Josh needs to battle through this stretch - a QB’s development is rarely linear.

[Bangarang]

I thought the entire point of drafting a guy with big hands and a rocket launcher was so he throw the ball in wet or windy conditions? 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Bangarang

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 I would generally agree. I would probably grade NE somewhere above slump but below good. Maybe a C. I could be convinced a third letter grade in either direction.  
 

Where I’ll probably disagree with you most is KC. Mahomes was something like 21/26, the weather wasn’t just super bad for Josh. He was 9/21 66 yards through 85% of the game. On top of that 1 completion for 15 yards was from the freebie Diggs throw underneath before the half. That freebie pass aside that makes the methodology of the passing game 8/20 for 51 yards. Discounting or not, that’s abysmal efficiency. 
 

Unless you’re playing in hurricane Katrina or that Indy snow game, there’s no answer for that other than “our QB played really poorly”. Especially when the other dude was 21/26 225 and 2 TDS. 

re KC, you are probably right. But something didn’t seem right with him that game. I don’t think it was anything KC was doing, and it didn’t strike me as the same problems that plagued him in the past. Maybe it was his left shoulder or the rain a little. I can’t put my finger on it. 

[Rc2catch]

Good teams win in multiple ways. 
Sure it’s fun to have this crazy pass attack that’s awesome all season. Come playoff time you better be able to run the ball.

First 4 weeks were fun. It’s slowed down now. I think it’s huge we had a great run game last week. We are not elite yet. I don’t think buffalo can just turn it on and throw for 350 and 4-5 touchdowns anytime they want. That’s not important though, unless you’re down big which we haven’t been yet. 
KC didn’t look so hot in that Super Bowl until Williams started getting hot, then Mahomes got it going. Many argued Mahomes wasn’t mvp of that game Williams was. 
Either way, you got to be able to mix things up. I would like to see a more deadly pass game but at one point we had to establish were capable of running the dang ball. We have now seen a high level pass attack, a nasty run game last week, it’s time for the defense to step up.