Drops - Not a great stat

[DrDawkinstein]

Its MUCH better than it was last year. And all good WRs drop balls. None of them are 100%.

 

[HOUSE]

We just need to clean house and bring in some good hands players. This bunch just isn't cutting the mustard here.

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, wjag said:

I was on this point going in to the Patriots game.  The biggest difference in my mind between weeks 1-4 and 5-8 is the receivers caught everything thrown at them.  Not so much lately.  Why, weather, scheme, defenses, etc.  All can big argued.  It's just been glaring lately.  That needs to be fixed this week.

Allen seemed to stop using the touch that he had in weeks 1-4 and has been throwing more fastballs like he was in his first two years when we also had a lot of drops. Maybe Allen throws it too hard and it’s hard to catch.

Maybe it’s because teams are playing more zone and he has to fire it into the gaps. Idk but he’s definelty stopped using the touch he had.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Allen seemed to stop using the touch that he had in weeks 1-4 and has been throwing more fastballs like he was in his first two years when we also had a lot of drops. Maybe Allen throws it too hard and it’s hard to catch. 

Biggest difference I see is Allen isn’t using the touch he had, throwing guys open. 

 

I think that has to do with some OLine starters going out and him losing faith in the protection. Instead of settling in the pocket and throwing it comfortably, he's rushing it and falling back to gunning it since he thinks/knows he has less time.

[TH3]

Daboll Mcbeane Allen...now all Diggs and Gabriel....all on the HOT SEAT!!

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I think that has to do with some OLine starters going out and him losing faith in the protection. Instead of settling in the pocket and throwing it comfortably, he's rushing it and falling back to gunning it since he thinks/knows he has less time.

He has definitely lost faith in his protection. Saw a couple times where the defense blitzed, the line picked it up beautifully and Allen bailed a clean pocket. 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

He has definitely lost faith in his protection. Saw a couple times where the defense blitzed, the line picked it up beautifully and Allen bailed a clean pocket. 

 

Anyone know when Ford is expected back?

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Gabe Davis is a waste of a starting WR spot.   With Brown struggling though injuries, we need to try something else at outside WR.  Whether it is a trade,or Duke, we need an outside WR that is actually capable.   Davis is a better slot guy.

Gabriel Davis is not a starting WR

[Freddie's Dead]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Gabe Davis is a waste of a starting WR spot.   With Brown struggling though injuries, we need to try something else at outside WR.  Whether it is a trade,or Duke, we need an outside WR that is actually capable.   Davis is a better slot guy.

 

I'm the biggest Duke fanboy here, but there's no way I can get behind replacing Davis with The Duke.  Welcome Back has been nails this year, making tough catches and coming up big in the clutch.  He could have cost us the game Sunday, but he didn't, so I'm letting it slide.

[QLBillsFan]

Weather impacts not only drops but the numbers on JA. If you have perfect weather or a dome it impacts the stats. Jim Kelly also had his numbers impacted in a similar way. Davis did drop a key catchable ball, but I also recall he also made a heck of a TD catch earlier in year. It happens and weather doesn’t help.

 

Davis is a better option than Duke in route running and the ability to get open. In 4 wide set it gives the Bills great options with match ups. I like Duke and his story is great but Davis has earned the time. Davis will make a huge impact in the second half of the year. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2019/10/24/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-quarterback-accuracy-issues-with-deep-passes/4073264002/

 

This year, among the 28 QBs with at least 150 attempts, Allen’s 62.4 completion percentage ranks 19th, but his adjusted rate jumps up to 77.2 percent which is 13th.

 

Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside of the quarterback's control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw.

 

 

NOTE - a few weeks ago the adjusted rate was in the 80's IIRC. 

 

This was discussed here I just can't find the thread.  

[Boxcar]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

For this stat to make sense you cant look at number of drops, you have to look at catch percentage, otherwise the data isnt normalized.   Yes Diggs has drops, but he also has had a lot of opportunities to drop the ball.  The real weak spots have been Brown, Knox and Davis.   I am not sure whats going on with Brown, I know he has a lower body injury, but 51% is just brutal.  On the upside Beasley has been automatic this year.

Honestly feel like Beasley is one of the most underrated WRs in the game. He catches everything, runs great routes and can get extra yards with his feet. I really like the Bills receivers when John Brown is right, and I don't think it's a coincidence that things started going downhill once he got hurt. 

 

I still can't believe Davis missed that catch in the endzone. Almost a perfectly thrown ball by Josh, and put the Bills in a precarious position.

[Livinginthepast]

But drops only matter if its a circus catch by Duke Williams in the playoffs? The Davis drop was unforgivable even for a rookie. At least we won the game but that was Ronnie Harmon esque. I do agree that Josh's velocity probably goes up if he is forcing things and that is one of the things that I thought he had improved on in the first 4 weeks. Lately I have seen it creep back in. I think the speed that he throws at sometimes throws off the timing of receivers. He needs to relax in those big moments and not muscle it.

[quinnearlysghost88]

This reminds me of my favorite all time NFL star: Larry Fitzgerald has more tackles than dropped passes in his career. Think about that. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

Daboll Mcbeane Allen...now all Diggs and Gabriel....all on the HOT SEAT!!

 

When your team is a miserable 6-2, the entire roster and coaching staff should be on the hot seat!

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, wjag said:

 

Seems to me he is progressing on a normal pace as a first year wide receiver.  The Bills have historically been too quick to give up on players.  His play has fallen off as all WRs have been without John Brown on the field.

I agree Davis is going through growing pains...but we keep copping out the excuse of John Brown going off the field.   

 

The Patriots were without their top 3 or 4 WRs but their new guys were still catching passes for 1st down.   We have an issue with scheme and putting our players in position and for Allen to get the ball to them.  Let us work on that magic.   

 

Claypool has no problems catching passes every week.  I am sure Davis work ethics are as good.

26 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

One of the biggest knocks on Allen is that he still throws a very hard, uncatchable ball at times which is a big reason for drops and deflections that turn into INT's (i.e. Andre Roberts Titans game).

 

Same reason he struggles with touch passes and short throws because he has such a cannon attached to his body.

We can't keep giving this excuse.  This should be fixable.

[Buffalo Boy]

5 hours ago, bobobonators said:

I cant remember which game but I feel we had 4-5 drops in that game alone a couple weeks back. Maybe vs chiefs

Maybe it was those gifts Maholmes kept sending to our secondary and Lbs you are thinking of 😒

[Rubes]

5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

agreed. Add to that the possible TD Through diggs’ hands against the chiefs on the long bomb.

 

i made this point in another thread, but if our receivers make all of these catches, the offense these past few weeks looks dramatically different.  Receivers need to execute and make hard catches. 

 

Actually, I think this is one of the reasons our offense looked so good in Weeks 1-4. The WRs were making sick catches time after time. Not so much now.

 

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

But drops only matter if its a circus catch by Duke Williams in the playoffs? The Davis drop was unforgivable even for a rookie. At least we won the game but that was Ronnie Harmon esque. I do agree that Josh's velocity probably goes up if he is forcing things and that is one of the things that I thought he had improved on in the first 4 weeks. Lately I have seen it creep back in. I think the speed that he throws at sometimes throws off the timing of receivers. He needs to relax in those big moments and not muscle it.

Don't overlook his ball placement, too, which is often off the mark but not by so much that the incompletion is Allen's fault.  But it might still contribute to the drop.  

 

Our game threads are filled with Allen passes where Bills fans are left saying "not a great throw, but receiver X has to catch that nonetheless."

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

21 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Actually, I think this is one of the reasons our offense looked so good in Weeks 1-4. The WRs were making sick catches time after time. Not so much now.

 

agree completely. It’s also why we were so good in the red zone. I can think off the top of my head of 4 huge and tough endzone catches (Davis against Miami, Beasley against raiders, brown against raiders, Kroft against Rams).